It looks like Martyn Martin Bradbury has influenced the pollsters and pundits in the UK who have all been predicting the demise of David Cameron’s government.
They are all in a quandry now as exit polls are showing a massive surge for the Conservatives.
You can feel the pain at The Guardian.
It’s fair to say no one was expecting that. Not the political parties, not the punditocracy and – least of all – the pollsters. The exit poll that came on the stroke at 10pm will have caused ashen faces at Labour headquarters. At Lib Dem towers, the spirits would have crumpled in an instant. At Tory mission control, the joy would have been unconfined.
But all of them would have remembered the lessons of exit polls past. The Labourtribe – and the polling fraternity – are haunted by the experience of 1992, when the 10pm poll prepared the nation for Prime Minister Neil Kinnock. David Cameron will surely have held that precedent in his mind before uncorking the champagne. But the temptation to reach for the bubbly will have been strong. Exit polling has come a long way since 1992. Indeed, the exit poll issued in 2010 turned out to have called it just about right.
If this one turns out to be similarly accurate, there will be inquests aplenty. Labour will surely spend the coming hours contemplating the fate of its leader, who – this poll says – was roundly rejected in both England and Scotland. The Lib Dems will spend the night contemplating the bizarre prospect of having been simultaneously wiped out – and looking forward to a return to government. Their projected tally of 10 seats should be a disaster of epic proportions – and yet, on the exit polls, it would almost be enough to see them renew their coalition vows with the Conservatives.