Conservative party

Labour in trouble according to UK exit polls

It looks like Martyn Martin Bradbury has influenced the pollsters and pundits in the UK who have all been predicting the demise of David Cameron’s government.

They are all in a quandry now as exit polls are showing a massive surge for the Conservatives.

You can feel the pain at The Guardian.

It’s fair to say no one was expecting that. Not the political parties, not the punditocracy and – least of all – the pollsters. The exit poll that came on the stroke at 10pm will have caused ashen faces at Labour headquarters. At Lib Dem towers, the spirits would have crumpled in an instant. At Tory mission control, the joy would have been unconfined.

But all of them would have remembered the lessons of exit polls past. The Labourtribe – and the polling fraternity – are haunted by the experience of 1992, when the 10pm poll prepared the nation for Prime Minister Neil Kinnock. David Cameron will surely have held that precedent in his mind before uncorking the champagne. But the temptation to reach for the bubbly will have been strong. Exit polling has come a long way since 1992. Indeed, the exit poll issued in 2010 turned out to have called it just about right.

If this one turns out to be similarly accurate, there will be inquests aplenty. Labour will surely spend the coming hours contemplating the fate of its leader, who – this poll says – was roundly rejected in both England and Scotland. The Lib Dems will spend the night contemplating the bizarre prospect of having been simultaneously wiped out – and looking forward to a return to government. Their projected tally of 10 seats should be a disaster of epic proportions – and yet, on the exit polls, it would almost be enough to see them renew their coalition vows with the Conservatives.

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Cult Colin: The loser who rewrites history loses twice

via Twitter

via Twitter

The tipline keeps overflowing with moaners from the Conservative Party wanting to expose Colin Craig’s dumb antics.  I tend to ignore most of them, but here’s one that needs a little sunlight.

Apparently it’s all cucumber sammies and scones with tea inside the Cult Colinservative Compound.  Colin Craig seems to think Election 2014 was a fantastic result for the party.  Money well spent.

He must have early onset dementia about the various campaign post-election audit reports, the current free fall in the polls for the party, the personnel (and personal) meltdowns and resignations, the legal problems surrounding his behaviour around staff, the massive donations spending and a huge personal loan mortgaging the party’s future, as well as the 30 pages or so summary of members survey criticisms of Craig’s leadership and the campaign.

The party’s most recent “news” letter is 9 pages long.  And it contains no less than 8 photos of Cult Colin.  (I’ll spare you the photographic detail, but you can challenge your bile to stay down in your own time if you go here.) Read more »

The story nobody is covering: The failure and death of the Conservative Party

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We all know that National is mostly just Helen’s Labour Party policies with a few pet projects on the side.  Smacking is still outlawed.  A few power stations were half sold.  And some gay people can now get married.

This leaves a fair chunk of National support with no real place to go.  Most are devout believers in a Christian God.  They love traditional ideas around family and the moral and value systems that brings with it.

The rise and fall of a number of “right of National” conservative or religious parties over the decades clearly show there is a 3-6% support for a party that is interested in pulling National to the right.  And good grief, doesn’t National need a coalition partner like that now, with both Dunne and the Maori Party having abandoned their support for sensible RMA reform.

Why do conservative parties in New Zealand fail to get off the ground?  Sadly, it’s because of the nutcase factor.   Read more »

Who owns the Conservative Party?

It is no secret that the Conservative Party has been split since before the election as to how it should be run.  And to some degree, that’s not an unusual situation in any kind of party.

If I were to be kind for a moment, and put the “Cult Party” label aside, the criticism that Colin Craig runs the party as if he is the owner refuses to go away.

And from his point of view, why not?  He’s pretty much paid for all of it.  It’s his own vehicle to try and achieve political success and progress from a property manager into a politician.

The problem is that he’s surrounded himself with people who are expecting the Conservative Party to run on principles where everyone’s vote carries equal weight.

After the election, the Conservative Party Board implemented a full and frank review, something that is as valuable as it is necessary.  After all, as a party they were close enough to the 5% threshold to review where they could improve performance next time.

This review came back and primarily pointed the finger at Colin Craig’s autocratic management style as one of the major reasons that a number of issues had not worked well.

To say the Board was split over this would be an understatement.  I’ve seen documents and spoken to party people that indicate that since the election there has been a constant battle between Craig and his supporters, and the rest of the Board.

Craig is no fool and has been working the numbers.  Putting pressure on certain individuals causing them to quit is a very simple way to get majority support and the appearance of a democratic vote becomes moot.

Bluntly put, the Conservative Party is dysfunctional, and has been leaking like a sieve.  Much to the frustration of Craig who has issued gag orders, “do not speak to media” orders, and has most recently implemented strict email security measures. Read more »

Conservative Party insider to Colin Craig and the board: “Stop the infighting it will destroy us”

Things are starting to boil over in the Conservative Party.  I have some stories sitting here that I’ve held back because they would have gotten lost in the by-election debacle, the boxing and Black Caps winning the world cup.

To the Board and Colin Craig.

Debbie Cunliffe one of our Party stalwarts has resigned, Debbie was made of
tough stuff and you brought her to her knees. How many more of us will fall?
Continue to say you are listening and then disregard us see what happens. If
you will not listen to those who have courage to challenge you, who will you
listen to – just yourselves?

It appears that you have filters in place to only listen to those who fit in
with your agenda. Your agenda is hidden to us!

You want to shut down any discussion by email and Yammer. You are telling me
to shut down I will not because I believe that binding referenda and Justice
etc should be practiced within the Party, and if not we are being
hypocritical.

Stop the infighting it will destroy us. Get our act together. Read more »

Face of the day

 Erna Solberg

Erna Solberg

Erna Solberg  has been leader of the conservative party in Norway since 2004 and became Prime Minister in 2013 making her the second female Prime Minister of Norway.

Solberg has served as a member of the Storting since 1989 and served as Minister of Local Government and Regional Development in Bondevik’s Second Cabinet from 2001 to 2005. In her term as minister, she oversaw the tightening of immigration policy

-wiki

Interestingly Solberg was not as tough on immigration as she had been portayed as being back then in the media. She was called ” Jern-Erna ” or Iron Erna when she served as the Minister of local government and regional development 2001-2005 because of her alleged tough policies including a firm stance on asylum policy. However according to wiki the numbers show that her government actually let in thousands more asylum seekers than the subsequent centre-left red-Green government.

Even worse in 2003 She proposed introducing Islamic Sharia councils in Norway after she heard of their existence in the United Kingdom.

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Hooton asks “Where is Colin Craig?”

Matthew Hooton in his NBR column asks where is Colin Craig?

The country’s going to hell in a handbasket.

Prime Minister John Key has again been photographed being kissed by drag queens.

Police commissioner Mike Bush has allowed uniformed officers to march in the annual Pride parade.

Same-sex marriage continues with gay abandon.

Schools are teaching students as young as five the correct names of body parts and what kinds of personal interaction is allowed and not allowed, rather than leaving them to work it out in the playground as they did in the good old days.

Parents are still not allowed to smack their kids.

God is displeased, sending drought to the South Island and plague to Auckland’s Sodom and Gomorrah, Grey Lynn.

The conditions are ripe for a conservative backlash.  So where is Colin Craig?

If Matthew Hooton is asking that question it shows how out of the political loop he is these days.

From May 2012, Mr Craig invested an enormous amount of time and at least $3,354,600 in his Conservative Party.  For his efforts, the party scored a credible 95,598 party votes last year, 3.97% of the total.  It was up on the 59,237 votes the party won in its first outing 2011, 2.65% of those cast.

Like all party leaders, Mr Craig had a rough time through the election campaign.  He was mocked mercilessly by the liberal establishment, who considered him a greater threat than he turned out to be. His own party plastered an unflattering mug shot of him on hoardings across the country.  Worst of all, his press secretary resigned mysteriously two days before the election, slamming him as  “manipulative.” Mr Craig denied any “unchristian” or “untoward” behaviour.

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How broke was Labour at the election? Very broke, the Greens outspent them

The latest election expenses are out and it is quite revealing.

National spent the most, Labour spent less than half of National, and the Greens out spent Labour.

But the real take out is that money doesn’t buy you results. The Greens show that as does Internet Mana.

Labour spent half as much as National on last year’s election campaign and was outspent by the Greens for the first time.

Parties’ election advertising expenses were released yesterday and show Labour spent $1.27 million – slightly less than the Green Party on $1.29 million and half the National Party’s $2.6 million.

National was the biggest spender, followed by the Conservative Party, which was bankrolled by leader Colin Craig and spent $1.9 million. Funded by $3.5 million from Kim Dotcom, the Internet-Mana alliance spent $660,000 while the Internet Party spent a further $320,000. Of the parties in Parliament, United Future spent the least – just under $2000.

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David Cameron promises to reduce benefits to get people off their arses

David Cameron is seeking to show a clear difference between his party and the opposition parties and is moving to reduce the levels of benefits.

He has done it once before and it was remarkably successful….now he is set to reduce the benefits cap even further.

David Cameron will reduce the annual benefits cap to £23,000 as the first act of a new Conservative Government, the Prime Minister has pledged in an interview with The Telegraph.

The move follows the “stampede to the job centre” caused by the original introduction of the £26,000 benefits cap which was heavily opposed by Labour and will form one of the key battlegrounds of the general election campaign.

In an interview to mark 100 days until the general election, Mr Cameron said that his reform of the welfare system is a “deeply progressive programme” that is “changing people’s lives”.

The policy will pay for thee million apprenticeships and everyone in Britain is given “the chance to make the most of their God-given talents”, the Prime Minister said.

Mr Cameron said that the promise of an immediate law after May’s election “tells you everything you need to know about our values”.   Read more »

[EXCLUSIVE] Leaked report says Colin Craig doesn’t listen, is an idiot, and a dictator

walden-david

David Walden

I have long said that Colin Craig is a political retard.

Many people attacked me for being so blunt, but they were usually acolyte, single issue nutters or forelock tuggers from the Conservative party.

Basically though the bloke is a dead set political idiot, NZ politics is better without him

He is an amateur playing in a professional era and his advisors say so in a leaked report that WOBH has obtained.

It is written by David Walden the founder of TBWA/Whybin advertising agency, and a he has a reputation for being blunt. Chameleon, and later David Walden on his own, was Colin Craig’s effective campaign strategy team as the hired election advertising agency.

There are a couple of papers like the one written by Walden floating about. They all come remarkably to the same conclusions.

Walden meanwhile meets his fearsome reputation for his blunt appraisal of the Conservative party campaign in his post election debrief.

He prefaces his report by describing the problems they had with the protrayal of Colin Craig in the media as “creepy” and “manipulative”, especially over the rapid exit of Rachel MacGregor.

It would also be correct to say Rachel’s exit cost us as it portrayed Colin as “manipulative” and added to his “creepy” persona, but that on its own was not enough to really hurt us, but it gave Winston Peters ammunition to damage Colin’s reputation and cast doubt in the minds of swinging voters.

Lets face it the Jason [Ede] debacle was not helpful to John Key, but his brand was strong enough to shrug it off.

Colin as a brand was still seen as risky and a bit hard to understand, so being labeled “manipulative” was damaging, and he did not handle this event well with the media.

Why not release the email?

Why not go on the front foot?

Why leave so many unanswered questions and allow the media to make their own story?

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