Conservative party

Conservatives down, Internet Mana down in latest poll

Care of the Herald-Digipoll, a sneak at tomorrow’s results:

Conservatives in the last six DigiPoll surveys: July 2014, 1.2 per cent, August 2.6, then weekly during the campaign: 3.3, 3.8, 3.8 and 3.3.

Internet Mana in the last six DigiPoll surveys: July 2.2 per cent, August 2.1, then weekly during the campaign: 3.4, 3.5, 2.3 and 1 per cent.

 

UPDATE:  At those numbers, even if Hone gets in, Laila Harre won’t.

Colin Craig denies “untoward” and “unchristian” behavour

hgr34

We discovered some hours ago that Colin Craig’s press secretary, Rachel McGregor had quit the Conservative Party campaign team having worked with them for three years quoting “unchristian” and “manipulative” behaviour on behalf of Craig.

Craig didn’t know she had resigned and was flummoxed by media asking him to explain what happened. Read more »

Conservative Party pressec quits two days short of election

hgr34

Oh dear.  How untidy.

Conservative Party leader Colin Craig and his press secretary of two years have parted ways – just two days out from the election.

Rachel MacGregor has told Newstalk ZB she’s left the party as of this morning. Read more »

Conservative Party irony

Did you know that Colin Craig and the Conservative Party wants 67% to be the threshold at which a binding referendum result becomes binding?

BxeGK5LCQAEA-pQ

 

I guess that’s a no then, Colin.

 

H/T:  Rachel

Dodgy Polling from the Conservatives

Two days ago the Conservative Party said that their internal polls showed them winning in Napier.

We questioned this poll just like we questioned the dodgy polls in Rodney.

Now Colin Craig’s dodgy internal polls are telling him that Garth McVicar is winning in Napier.

Back then Colin Craig used Research First who have since parted ways with the seriously dodgy Roger Larkins.

Larkins now runs his own polling/research company and I’ll bet they were the ones who ran this poll in Napier

Knowing Larkins it is probably the same dodgy poll methodology in Napier as he used in Rodney?

The Conservatives’ plans to have Napier candidate Garth McVicar campaign around the country were scaled back after internal polling showed he was proving popular in his home electorate.

Instead of having Mr McVicar shaking hands and kissing babies across New Zealand, party leader Colin Craig has instead left him to focus his campaigning in Napier, in the hope he can win the seat.

Read more »

Labour’s election campaign is slip, slidin’ away

The election is slip, slidin’ away from Labour.

They are approaching the territory of Bill English, expect a sudden collapse of their vote in this final week as people wake up to the fact that they can’t win.

Voters don’t vote for losers.For the same reason people leave early from a rugby match when their team is getting pasted the voters will abandon Labour.

National is urging its supporters not to split their vote as our latest poll confirms the minor parties are on the rise – and Labour continues to slump.

The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll signals a horror start to the final week of the campaign for Labour as its support slides to 22.4 per cent, putting it on track for an unprecedented trouncing.

It appears to have bled some support to the Greens, who are on 13 per cent. But most attention is around the seeming unstoppable rise of Winston Peters and NZ First.

Read more »

Herald editorial calls out Winston

Yesterday’s Herald editorial calls time on Winston’s usual political chicanery.

Winston Peters sounds worried, as well he might be. His party has risen in our poll this week but Colin Craig’s Conservative Party remains poised near the threshold. If the Conservatives gain another percentage point or two they will offer National an option to Mr Peters, should National need another supporting party to return to office. John Key would clearly prefer to deal with almost anyone else.

The 8 per cent or so of voters who are planning to put Mr Peters back in Parliament are probably his perennial admirers and impervious to a public appeal, but here is one. Spare the country, please, another round of Mr Peters’ phony post-election routine. We have all seen it before. He makes everyone wait while he plays out a negotiation for no purpose beyond the pleasure he finds in it.

He thinks he is keeping people guessing but it has become tediously obvious what he will do in the end. If the result next Saturday night leaves him in a pivotal position there is no doubt he will put the winning party in power; he would not dare do otherwise.

The only uncertainty is the number of days or weeks he will want to delay the inevitable. New Zealand’s government should not be put at the disposal of somebody like this. Only his supporters can do something about it.

Winston likes the theatre…there are only two shows he won’t perform…a dogs show and no show.

They ought to consider that Mr Peters is nearly 70. It is well past time to retire him.

He has been in and out of Parliament since 1978, longer than any other MP. He has never come to terms with changes to the economy 30 years ago and at this election he is reaching further back to recall the protected prosperity of the 1950s.

Read more »

Are you willing to play the Winston Peters Lottery?

Get used to it:  Winston Peters will be part of the government come September 20.

The problem is, he won’t tell you which side he’ll back.

In fact, he’s just as likely to go with Labour.  After all, they are operating an open chequebook election, whereas National is trying to come off as much more responsible.

If you want to boot the National Government out next Saturday why on earth would you vote for Winston Peters and NZ First?

On the other hand, if you want to keep National in power after the election, why would you opt for Peters and his party?

The truth is you wouldn’t.

If you want certainty Peters doesn’t come into it.

Voting for Peters is a big, blind, gamble: he won’t tell you what he plans to do.

He claims that’s up to voters to decide. Rubbish. Read more »

Show us the detail Colin! (ctd)

While it is evident that as a minor party, the Conservatives will have little effect on fiscal policy, the real issue is where this Party sits on the political spectrum. The Conservatives are quick to pan the disease of ‘entitleitis’ in the left, they are subject to the same malady when it comes to large families.

Not only would the first $20,000 of income be tax free, but there would be an unknown tax free increase for each dependent and he would also support income sharing between spouses. If this were to replace Working for Families, there would still be a huge gap in government revenue. These policies are not costed and the offset suggested “we will make savings” is simply not good enough.

This from Colin Craig’s “Ask Colin” on Conservative Party website – $20 K tax free increased for each dependant  & income splitting- so blow out lot more than $6.4 billion:

Hi Colin

What is your parties view income sharing?

If my wife and I both earned half of my current salary each our household after tax income would be $10,000 greater!

We are being penalised for choosing to have my wife stay at home and raise our 3 under 5 children (rather than sticking them in day care!)

Regards
Brendan

Read more »

More Dodgy Polling from the Conservatives

Last election Colin Craig reckoned that his polling showed him a long way ahead of National’s Mark Mitchell. Colin got hammered with Mark winning a majority of 12,222.

Colin’s dodgy polling was essentially push polling, and gave him terrible results.

Questions included both unprompted and prompted aspects, and sought to differentiate the responses regarding party voting intentions from candidate voting intentions.  Relevant questions  included the following, in order of being asked:

1. For your party vote, have you decided who you will be voting for in the election?

2. Which party do you currently intend to vote for?

3. Have you heard of the Conservative Party?

4. Have you heard of Colin Craig?

Participants were read a brief preamble to provide context: ‘Colin Craig is the leader of the Conservative Party of New Zealand. In the Auckland mayoral election, Colin came third with over 40,000 votes’. Then asked


5. If Colin were to stand in as a candidate in your electorate, what would be the likelihood that you would vote for Colin to be your member of parliament (on a scale of 1 = definitely; 2 = likely; 3 = neutral; 4 = unlikely and 5 = very unlikely)?

Those who identified they were neutral or unlikely to vote for Craig were asked:

6 . Who do you intend to vote for?

There were additional questions relating specifically to how awareness was generated, as well as detailed policy questions. I’ve been advised these questions are relevant to the Conservative Party’s campaign strategy, and so details can’t be released.

To say the least I was gobsmacked with this response. Not only did it confirm the conflict of interest but it exposed the highly suspect methodology used by Research First in obtaining what they euphemistically describe as a “result”.

This is nothing short of a rigged poll. They lead respondents down a garden path and even prompted them as to what the required response should have been with poor questions. The poll surely is statistically invalid, in point of fact it is complete rubbish.

Now Colin Craig’s dodgy internal polls are telling him that Garth McVicar is winning in Napier.  Read more »