Even the dog looks bloody miserable
Even the dog looks bloody miserable
Some of the yet-to-be-released Labour Party policy must include where they plan to reclassify police and nurses as part of the manufacturing sector.
On Thursday evening the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. Normally I don’t comment on Roy Morgan polls, for a start they aren’t a member of the Market Research Association of NZ and their poll is all over the place showing massive swings for no apparent reason.
The only reasons that I comment on Roy Morgan polls is because it is the darling of the left-wing commentators who clutch at straws these days and because they tell us that they poll mobile phones, which is yet another bugbear of the left who think the indigent classes are left out from land line polling. There is not evidence at all to suggest this is the case, yet they persist with the urban myth. That, therefore, is why I comment on Roy Morgan…because the very things that the left uses to discount results of other polls that don’t suit their narrative don’t exist in Roy Morgan polls.
So, looking at left-wing commentary since the latest Roy Morgan it has been a struggle to see anything. save for the erudite musings of Chris Trotter, other than int he comments sections of the more popular left-wing blogs or on news sites.
The one thing that is apparent though is the bunker mentality of some.
Normally the left-wing blogs will crow about the Roy Morgan, now there is nothing but silence. Greg Presland even went out of his way to write a post that declared last week a win for David Cunliffe, despite his “cluster truck” policy being panned universally all week, their manufacturing policy launch slipping by un-noticed due to releasing it late on the day before a long extended holiday weekend and continued vocal criticism of their inept and wonky social media campaign that continues to deliver cock-ups and mis-steps. No mention of the poll still despite three days having elapsed…but plenty of time to write a post as to why Chris Trotter and Kiwi in America are wrong, dead wrong, and labour really is on the up and up.
Even Lynn Prentice felt so compelled to fill the void of political commentary that he wrote a lengthy post about how the servers operate The Standard, proving once again that he is the world’s greatest sysop. For a site with so little traffic they seem to have engineered themselves something Telecom would be proud of to run their enterprise.
The bunker mentality has set in, and it is bunker mentality that really takes its toll in politics. People hunker down, they ignore observable facts and details and continue to issue stirring announcements about great victories when the reality is they are pressed on all sides.
Comments dismissing polls and commenters with spurious reasoning shows this:
Pete it was one poll taken during the royal visit, Labour and the Greens went down and the right track wrong track rating went up by a similar amount to Nationalâs increase. Wait for the next few polls and then have the discussion. Or do you think that we should cancel the election now and just let Key get on with it.
And do you always agree with Chris or just when he backs up your world views?
Presuming it is valid, and RM does bounce around, it seems that the Royal Tour has had the desired effect âŠ
Chris Trotter is the bellwether of the left…he is prepared to say things that the more tribal members of the commentariat aren’t prepared to say.
Twice in as many days he has quietly pointed out the failure of the Cunliffe experiment. He writes at The Daily Blog:
THE LATEST ROY MORGAN POLL has Labour on 28.5 percent (down 3.5 percent) and the Greens on 11.5 percent (down 1.5 percent). At 40 percent, the combined vote of the two main centre-left parties has fallen 5 percentage points since Roy Morganâs previous survey in late March. Roy Morgan has long been the Leftâs favourite polling agency: a source of good news when the Colmar-Brunton, Reid Research and Ipsos agencies could offer nothing but ill-tidings. That âour pollâ has begun to deliver ill-tidings of its own is bad news indeed.
Chief among the causes of this worrying decline must surely be the political antagonisms currently dividing Labour and the Greens. David Cunliffeâs decision to spurn the Green Partyâs offer of an explicit pre-election coalition agreement, itself a reaction to internal Labour Party polling data, has clearly not been enthusiastically received by centre-left voters.
The other cause of Labourâs 3.5 percent decline in popular support can only be the its leaderâs ham-fisted response to the visit of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge. Justified or not, the public perceived Cunliffe to be whingeing about the amount of face-time he had been allocated with the Royal Couple. New Zealanders are notoriously unsympathetic to âwhingersâ and they undoubtedly mentally piled Cunliffeâs comments upon all the other ill-considered statements he has made since January.
In both cases the quality most conspicuously lacking in the Leader of the Oppositionâs decisions was courage. Regardless of whether Russel Normanâs motives in offering to campaign for a âLabour/Greens Governmentâ were well-intentioned or darkly Machiavellian, it is now pretty clear that the smart move would have been for Labour to seize the offer with both hands.
Some time back my good friend Brian Edwards cried off blogging, but it seems he has found a new source of luncheon sausage because he is back in the saddle so to speak and blogging up a storm.
His latest post suggests that Shane Jones’ time has come to lead the Labour party.
From the tone of his post it seems he has given up on the Cunliffe experiment.
If youâre a regular follower of this blog, youâll know that I have in the past written some pretty scathing posts on Labourâs Shane Jones. Not to put too fine a point on it, Iâve dismissed him not only as a future leader of the Party, but as a worthwhile Member Of Parliament and a decent human being.
Then, yesterday, I came across this video on the Heraldâs website. And I had no choice but to radically change my previous opinion and to do so with a degree of regret that it had ever been expressed. Iâd had a preview of Shane Jonesâ debating skill and facility with words a week or two back when he was interviewed on The Nation by Paddy Gower. But this was something different. It was an extraordinary display not only of oratory and the art of persuasive communication but of subtlety of thought and intellectual depth, leavened with humour. It was theatre.
One need not go far to look for a reason. Jones is equally fluent in Maori and English. But his impact when he combines the two is nothing less than extraordinary.
Well, he is also a man who provokes strong feelings of approval and disapproval, a high-risk candidate for the highest office in the land. But as I watched and re-watched this speech, I thought I could perhaps see a Leader of the Opposition there and a Prime Minister to boot.
After yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll perhaps Labour might just start realising that no one cares about their silly pursuit of Judith Collins and voters simply believe that they are unfit to govern.
The poll delivers a shock for Labour, this is their favoured indicator, and proves the lie that Labour’s own internal polling is showing them at 34%.
Playing the nasty and not focussing on policies that matter to Kiwi voters is really starting to hurt them. But they are now past the point of no return for David Cunliffe and have to stick it out with a naff leader that no one likes or no one believes.
When you add on these results to the dramatic boundary changes you are going to see Labour MPs disappear back to their electorates in an attempt to shore up their own support. Watch as Ruth Dyson, Clayton Cosgrove and a number of other MPs spend considerably more time in their electorates than in Wellington.
Todayâs New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large jump in support for National (48.5%, up 5.5%) now with its largest lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, down 5%) since July 2013 as New Zealanders celebrated the visit of Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge.
Support for Keyâs Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).Â Read more »
Labour releases manufacturing policy at end of short, busy week heading in to Easter. Strategy?
â Brent Edwards (@rnzgallerybrent) April 16, 2014
Oh dear…Labour launches their ClusterTruck policy early in the week Â on nationwide television with a proud and beaming David Cunliffe, and by the weeks end issue a flat press release talking about their “upgrade” for manufacturing.
What sort of a strategist announces a policy for manufacturing the eve of a long weekend holiday?
The funny thing is there isn’t a single mention of the crisis that never was in manufacturing that Labour banged on about endlessly.
Steven Joyce has joined in on the kicking:
Labourâs so called âManufacturing Policyâ once again reheats the same old tired economic policies that would take New Zealand back to the dark days of high inflation, sluggish growth and low-job prospects, Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce says.
âLabour is stubbornly determined to continue to manufacture a crisis in manufacturing when one simply doesnât exist,â Mr Joyce says.
âAs the latest BNZ-Business New Zealand Performance on Manufacturing Index shows, manufacturing has been expanding for the last 19 consecutive months and 14,300 more jobs were added in the last year. Manufacturing activity is at the highest level since 2006.Â Read more »
Yesterday Winston Peters, Grant Robertson and David Cunliffe all accused Judith Collins of corruption without a shred of evidence to support their claims.
Now someone who was at the dinner has confirmed the minister’s account and their smears are in tatters.
A senior Beehive adviser has taken the unusual step of going public to back her minister, Judith Collins, over what took place at a dinner with Oravida executives and a senior Chinese Government official.
Margaret Malcolm was one of five guests at the dinner in Beijing which has embroiled Collins in allegations of corruption.
Malcolm, who travelled with Collins to China as her senior adviser, backed the minister’s claim that they did not discuss Oravida’s business over the dinner and that they talked mostly tourism.
“The dinner was very short and discussion was restricted due to some participants having limited English. The conversation centred around New Zealand as a tourist destination.”
She had not taken any notes in her capacity as adviser.
Like Collins, Malcolm also refused to name the Chinese official who Opposition MPs claim was in a position to help milk exporter Oravida overcome export issues following the botulism scare.
Collins has been under fire over allegations she used her ministerial position to benefit her husband’s business interests, though she told The Dominion Post last night that this was not true.
“[NZ First leader] Winston Peters . . . misled the media, he misled the public and actually there is no evidence of it and it’s utterly untrue.”
She had no influence over the $6000 received by Oravida from a pool of government funding for businesses which had been affected by the botulism scare, which turned out to be a false alarm.
Forty-one exporters had received advice and help from the Government relating to the incident and 39 of them received some form of payment, she said.Â Read more »
Claire Trevett’s column today explores Labour’s idiocy with their clustertruck policy.
Former Labour Finance Minister Michael Cullen’s 2006 prophecy of “jam tomorrow” will come to fruition today, although it may not quite be the kind of jam people were hoping for.
It will be a traffic jam.
Realising there are votes to be gained from angry holidaymakers stuck in traffic for hours, Labour took measures to try to harvest them this week by releasing a groundbreaking holidaymakers’ transport policy.
Labour has long been driven by a drive to reduce inequality. So it announced it would drop the need to register caravans and trailers and cut road user charges for motorhomes and campervans.
The coup de grace of the policy was the ban on trucks from using the right-hand lane on three or four lane motorways – an attempt to peg into the futile rage that swamps drivers whose aims are thwarted by said trucks.
As “Kiwi families” loaded up their surfboards and fishing rods, David Cunliffe’s Caravan of Love was here to help. “Fun can quickly turn to frustration when the family realises the rego for the caravan has expired or there’s a big truck hogging the fast lane.”
Cunliffe declared, “Kiwis are sweating the small stuff too much.”Â Read more »