David Farrar

Northland, polls and polling vs final results

Arts, Lifestyle & Travel blogger David “Pinko” Farrar has a very brief post on the Northland polls.

  • Winston Peters NZF 16,089 54.5%
  • Mark Osborne NAT 11,648 39.4%
  • Willow-Jean Prime LAB 1,380 4.7%

Those polls were pretty accurate.

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National’s Northland Polls

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Readers already know that the inside word is that Pinko Farrar’s polls closely matched the two media polls in the last week of the campaign, and the results on the night.

This is of no surprise to any political observer who knows Pinko or knows polls, Pinko always gets it right.

What is interesting is that there are complaints from inside caucus that they had to fund the campaign but they were not given any information about the polls.    Read more »

So the polls were right. And so was Pinko Farrar

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The results from Northland will be pleasing for the polling community, who were remarkably accurate.

This was despite people saying that a by-election poll was hard to do and the by-election was harder to pick than a broken nose.

Winston Peters 53.95%
Mark Osborne 39.86%   Read more »

Good point Pinko

David Farrar has taken a break from blogging about arts, lifestyle and fitness to raise a very valid political point.

If Peters does win Northland, then that is a potential lifeline for NZ First post Peters. They can’t be guaranteed to make 5% with someone else leading them, but if they win and can hold Northland, then they would be able to continue post Peters.

Now neither Ron Mark nor Tracy Martin could I think hold Northland (if Peters wins it), but Shane Jones could. If Peters wins Northland, then Shane Jones could stand in the next election (or the one after) for NZ First, and he would be very likely to hold it.

Now think about what this means for the Greens and Labour? Can you imagine a Shane Jones led NZ First ever letting the Greens into Government? he hates them more than Winston.

Also can you imagine Shane Jones going into coalition with the party that he said no longer has room for people like him in it? I think it is unlikely.

So the irony of Little’s ploy is that it may give the left a tactical victory, but it may be a strategic blunder that pries NZ First away from the left and leaves Labour and the Greens marooned in near perpetual opposition.

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Trougher, desperate for attention, trying to re-write past again

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Here we go again.

Poor old trougher Shane Kawenata Bradbrook – the trougher exposed on Whaleoil for living it up large around the world on the taxpayer, is crying to Maori media after another troughing group gets a slap from the Taxpayers Union.

This time it is taxpayer funded anti-tobacco group ASH getting a serve from the Taxpayers Union who say:

The Taxpayers’ Union believes that questions need to asked about why a lobby group, working with the Maori Party on a political campaign around tobacco plain packaging, is largely taxpayer funded.  This morning’s front page of the New Zealand Herald covers the latest efforts to build political pressure to introduce a plain packaging law.

Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, says, “While civil servants operate under a duty of political neutrality, the Ministry of Health and others are awarding substantial sums of taxpayer money to health and environmental lobby groups to push particular political agendas.”

“It is wrong for special interest groups such as ASH to be using taxpayer money for political campaigns. ASH’s factual inaccuracies about the impact of plain packaging on smoking consumption in Australia suggests that they are operating outside any of the usual public sector control requiring balanced and evidenced based public statements.”

According to ASH’s most recent annual return filed with the Charities Register, more than 90% of ASH’s funding comes from the taxpayer.

Mr Williams says, “We all support funding for front line and addiction services such as Quitline. What we don’t support is funding to political organisations to operate campaigns with taxpayer money.”

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Restrict immigration? Good idea, let’s start with Islamic immigration

Fairfax reports:

Immigration is set to hit record levels, pushing up house prices over the coming year, but Prime Minister John Key believes immigrants’ skills are needed and enough houses are “in the pipeline” in Auckland to meet the influx.

In their monthly update to ministers yesterday, Treasury officials said net permanent and long-term (PLT) migration in the year ending March was “likely to exceed our [December] Half Year Update forecast of a peak of 52,400″.

Inflows were expected to start easing in the first half of this year, and the impact on house prices and household wealth appeared more subdued in this cycle, possibly because of the concentration of 20-34-year-olds in the numbers.

“However, it is possible that the strength in PLT arrivals recently may begin to impact housing demand more significantly over the coming year,” they warned.

Key said there was no question immigration has some impact on housing.

“Generally, the Reserve Bank takes the view that net migration is positive for the economy but has some spill-over implications.”

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Money doesn’t win elections

Arts, Travel & Lifestyle blogger David “Pinko” Farrar has worked out the cost per vote for all the political parties.

This proves that vast amounts of money do not change the election if it is spent by idiots like Kim Dotcom or Colin Craig.

What is even worse is that the Greens spend so much money on their campaign yet claim money is an evil influence. These hypocrites actually spent more than Labour in total, and more overall.

While this can be partly explained by Labour being deadset useless at a fundraising, the Greens have reefed in a lot of money to promote their world view.   Read more »

ACT want to be hip, cool, groovy and with it

The ACT Party says they’re getting rid of their tired old grumpies in favour of a bright and breezy future.

“Maybe we should be handing out a bit more dye like they do in the National Party,” [David Seymour] joked.

And while a youthful band valiantly tried to up the tempo, grey locks easily outnumbered wrinkle-free faces at the annual conference.

Political commentator David Farrar had predicted the party’s demise, declaring ACT clinically dead three years ago.

“The fact they actually got through when you consider everything they’ve had in the past in the way of scandals, you know I was totally wrong,” said Farrar.

Wrongly David Wrongson also didn’t get much right.  Of course, ACT has died.  It’s on life support via Epsom.   Let’s be real here – Kim Dotcom, Laila Harre and Hone Harewira got more votes for their sideshow than ACT did.  Helps to remember that, you know, as a reality check.   Read more »

Sometimes Farrar says the most ridiculous things

Usually it is Wellingtonians talking about what is best for Auckland.

David Farrar is one of the worst offenders.

Today he says this:

The waterfront is now the crown jewel in a city. It wasn’t 100 years ago, but times have changed and long-term the ports should be in places like Manukau and Petone – industrial areas. Yes it will cost a lot to move them, but it would be w worthwhile long-term investment for better cities.

What an idiot.

Let me begin.

Firstly he shows how Wellington CBD centric he is. Auckland has two harbours…not one…and therefore more waterfronts. He is suggesting that the Waitemata waterfront is best as a jewel in the crown. I am sure the residents of Onehunga and surrounding suburbs would disagree, who btw would probably out number the total of Wellington residents just quietly.

Even his comment about Petone is blessed with stupidity…it is at the end of a crappy little harbour and therefore more susceptible to tides. That would require massive wharf structures and then dredging to be suitable for even tiny container ships.

While we are talking about dredging, if Farrar is to be taken seriously then the Resource Management Act would destroy his fantasies in a nano-second as the Manukau harbour is highly tidal, very shallow and would by necessity require huge dredging operations for ships to even cross the entrance let alone navigate the harbour.

The harbour has a water surface area of 394 square kilometres. There is a tidal variation of up to 4 metres, a very substantial change, especially since the harbour, being silted up with almost 10 million years of sedimentation, is rather shallow itself.

Because of the large harbour area and narrow mouth between the Manukau Heads, tidal flow is rapid and a bar at the mouth makes navigating in or out of the harbour dangerous. New Zealand’s most tragic shipwreck occurred on the bar in 1863 when HMS Orpheus ran aground in clear weather with a loss of 189 lives. For this reason, along with the harbour’s shallowness, it is not Auckland’s favoured port, and the facilities at Onehunga are not very large compared to the other Ports of Auckland facilities on the Waitemata Harbour on the northeast of the isthmus.

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SkyCity folds

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce today announced that the Government and SkyCity have reached agreement on the next stages of the International Convention Centre (NZICC) project.

SkyCity has agreed not to pursue a financial contribution from the Government and instead will amend its design to ensure the facility can be completed without financial input from the Crown.

“I welcome SkyCity’s agreement with the Government’s approach,” Mr Joyce says. “This clears the path for the project to continue.

“I have repeatedly stated since December that our least preferred option is for the Government to contribute funding for the project. I am pleased to confirm that will be the case.”

SkyCity submitted a Preliminary Design for the NZICC in October 2014 for approval by the Crown.  However the total constructio Read more »