David Farrar

Journalist who threatened to break Farrar’s legs now works for NZ Herald

The journalist, who I once stood up for when she got death threats, and then who went on to threaten to break David Farrar’s legs because she disagreed with him , is now working for the NZ Herald.

David Farrar isn’t happy.

I blogged last month about how former Fairfax columnist Rachel Stewart tweeted on how she want to meet me in a dark alley and break my legs. She even emphasised she was in no way joking.

Lovely, she should fit right in with Nippert, Fisher and Currie.

At the time I blogged I described her as a Fairfax columnist as she had been, and there had been no public notification of any change of status. I had a senior staffer at Fairfax ring me up and tell me she’d done her last column three days earlier, and no longer worked for them. I got the strong impression that if she was still a columnist for them, they would find her threats of violence incompatible. They were very keen for me to emphasise that she was a former columnist.   Read more »

John Key to be grilled by Ombudsman over TXTs he and I sent to each other

Newstalk ZB’s Felix Marwick is on the “not a fan” ledger when it comes to both Key and myself.  He’s been after the content of  our communications since the Dirty Politics hit failed to do its job hoping to succeed where Rawshark and Nicky Hager failed.

The Chief Ombudsman will investigate the Prime Minister over his refusal to release details regarding his, and his office’s contact with right-wing bloggers David Farrar and Cameron Slater.

Back in early 2014 Newstalk ZB requested records of all such contacts that had occurred over a two year period.

John Key’s office declined to release details, saying to do so would require substantial research and collation and also that some communications may have been made in Mr Key’s capacity as an MP and leader of the National Party.

Now, almost two and a half years after a formal complaint was laid with the Ombudsmen about the matter, Chief Ombudsmen Peter Boshier has announced he will investigate the compliant. Read more »

Farrar attacked by violent harpy of the hard left

David Farrar has been threatened with the breaking of his legs and a violent mugging in a dark alley by former Fairfax journalist Rachel Stewart.

The nastiness of the hard left is revealed once more.

screen-shot-2016-09-19-at-10-32-18-pm Read more »

Labour’s dodgy polling


Arts, Travel & Lifestyle blogger David Farrar is widely regarded as being New Zealand’s best pollster. That is why we use him for Incite polling, and why we listen when he tells us a poll is dodgy.

He is clearly saying Labour’s polling is dodgy, and has posted about it.


A rather desperate Andrew Little has released their internal polling from  to try and convince people they are really winning.

UMR is a very good company and I often refer people to them, if I can’t do the work. But I will comment on this specific poll as it is vastly different to every other poll published.   Read more »


Which pollsters can you trust, and which are bought and paid for?

We should have something like this here.


In the process of being an analyser of polls, Nate Silver has had to figure out which are actually delivering reliable and honest results, and which are essentially fronts that get you the answer you’re paying for.

We know that Colmar Brunton are one of the most variable and have a clear bias towards Labour, for example.

As for Horizon, they had the Conservative party in government as part of the coalition with National right now.

Whenever the Fraser House spy tells me that Labour are polling in the low to mid-thirties, and then paid-for polls come out, you can reliably subtract 4-6 points, every time.


– 538

Labour’s List Problem

David Farrar had a very good post yesterday at Kiwiblog about Labour’s list problem.

In 2014 Labour got only five List MPs. Andrew Little only got in on special votes.

They are polling well below the level they were at three years ago. They normally lose support once an election campaign starts as minor parties get more attention. And already Winston is picking up support at their expense.

So at this stage it would be a brave person to predict they will lift their party vote from 2014, and hence their total number of MPs from 32.

Read more »

Shock for Andrew Little in latest INCITE|Curia poll


In our latest edition of INCITE: Politics which will be released today there is a catastrophic result for Andrew Little in our monthly INCITE|Curia polling.

Exclusive to us Curia looks again at how New Zealanders think our political leaders are doing. This is the only public poll in New Zealand that reports on approval of party leaders.

We asked 1,000 New Zealanders “Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Key/Andrew Little is handling his job as Prime Minister/Leader of the Opposition?”

And the results are devastating. Andrew Little has slumped 12 points while John Key has increased slightly by 1%.

It is clear that last months results were a ‘dead cat’ bounce and Andrew Little is now back under the pump for his lack of performance.

Full details are only available to subscribers.   Read more »

Farrar on the One News Poll

David Farrar has some useful comparisons on the polls at the same stage of the electoral cycle:

It is almost half way through National’s third term, so it is useful to compare it to the same poll halfway through National’s second term.

In April 2013 National was at 43% and Labour 36% – a 7% gap.

In April 2016 National is at 50% and Labour 28% – a 22% gap.   Read more »

As predicted, the flag won’t be changing

As predicted by almost everyone except those who have spent the best part of a year wishful thinking, the flag won’t be changing.

To be fair, I was listening to David Farrar and he knew what his polling was showing. He explains on his Arts, Lifestyle and Travel blog precisely why the vote wasn’t for change.

As I’ve got better things to do at the start of Easter long weekend than wait for the results and write the blog post tonight, I’m doing it in advance. Why do I think the status quo won.

First of all, let me say that it is very possible that regardless of all the factors, it is more than likely the vote would have been for the status quo. There has never been a poll showing a majority for change, and few if any countries have ever ever voted to change their flag. It is normally done by fiat from Government, or as a result of constitutional change such as becoming independent.

I’m proud of the fact we are one of the few countries where we have actually got to have a vote on what our flag will be.

However it may have been a lot closer than what the actual result will be. A number of factors basically doomed any chance there was of a change. Here’s what I think they were:   Read more »

Precious little Kevvy Hague doesn’t like it up him

Kevin Hague likes to talk about transparency, but he also likes to break value 6 of the Green party values, which states:

Engage respectfully, without personal attacks

It is somewhat unbelievable that, given those values, he engages in such an appalling manner on Facebook, attacking Katherine Rich, Carrick Graham, David Farrar and me.

For anyone following the debate on whether or not we should impose a levy on sugary drinks. Something I found noteworthy (and predicted at the start of the day in fact) was that the voices raised in support of the Government position of doing nothing were first Katherine Rich, CEO of the Food and Grocery Council (ie the industry, second Carrick Graham, PR consultant to noxious industries, and thirdly blog posts on Kiwiblog and Whaleoil. Now where have I seen that alignment before? Sounds very familiar. For good measure there was also comment from Eric Crampton, economist for ‘the NZ Initiative’ (or as I prefer to still call it, to ensure transparency, the Business Roundtable)

Clear breaches of value 6. I’m not sure how calling industries noxious is engaging respectfully, without personal attacks.   Read more »