David Farrar

The decapitation strategy in play now

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger, David Farrar, writes:

I’ve blogged the latest Roy Morgan poll at Curia.

It has Labour at 23% which would see them get just 28 MPs in a House of 120. As they hold 27 electorates it means on that poll they would get just one List MP – their leader Andrew Little. If they drop just 1% more, then Little loses his seat. Alternatively if they pick up one more electorate seat then again Little loses his seat.

Other List MPs such as Jacinda Ardern and David Parker are toast on this result.

It is always useful to compare polls to the same time period in the previous election cycle. So how are National and Labour placed in November 2013 and November 2016?   Read more »

More good news

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger, David Farrar brings some very good news:

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The data above is from the Registrar of Unions. While the big fall off in union membership was in the 1990s, it has continued. The percentage of the labour force in a union has gone from 18.5% to just over 15%.

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Hager still trying to re-litigate Dirty Politics with OIA requests

On Monday I was emailed by the Department of Internal Affairs informing me that they were about to release the data attached at the bottom of this post to Nicky Hager. I didn’t even know that he had asked for it or that he had appealed the rejection of the release to the  Ombudsman. The data shows calls and texts between Jason Ede and me between January to August 2011 when Jason worked for Ministerial Services.

If you look at the data there are a number of one-minute calls which would be calls that resulted in no answer or went to voicemails. In total, it shows 106 communications over eight months.

Remember that Nicky Hager’s book made the contention that both David Farrar and I were conduits for the National party, in the pocket of the PM’s department being continually fed information. As with most of his book the suppositions are horseshit, and now, thanks to Nicky Hager’s own OIA requests we know his suppositions are horseshit. Perhaps Hager was thinking the National party operates like the Labour party does, and his little band of helpers who helped pore over the hacked data like Matt McCarten, Martyn Bradbury and Lynn Prentice related their own experiences thereby giving Nicky Hager the erroneous idea that we were Jason Ede’s bitches.

Let’s look at the data. Over eight months there are 57 texts and 49 phone calls. That is an average of seven text messages a month and six phone calls a month. The average duration of phone calls is just six minutes and ten seconds. Hardly the massive conspiracy that Hager made out it was in his book based on illegally obtained emails, messages and chats.   Read more »

Journalist who threatened to break Farrar’s legs now works for NZ Herald

The journalist, who I once stood up for when she got death threats, and then who went on to threaten to break David Farrar’s legs because she disagreed with him , is now working for the NZ Herald.

David Farrar isn’t happy.

I blogged last month about how former Fairfax columnist Rachel Stewart tweeted on how she want to meet me in a dark alley and break my legs. She even emphasised she was in no way joking.

Lovely, she should fit right in with Nippert, Fisher and Currie.

At the time I blogged I described her as a Fairfax columnist as she had been, and there had been no public notification of any change of status. I had a senior staffer at Fairfax ring me up and tell me she’d done her last column three days earlier, and no longer worked for them. I got the strong impression that if she was still a columnist for them, they would find her threats of violence incompatible. They were very keen for me to emphasise that she was a former columnist.   Read more »

John Key to be grilled by Ombudsman over TXTs he and I sent to each other

Newstalk ZB’s Felix Marwick is on the “not a fan” ledger when it comes to both Key and myself.  He’s been after the content of  our communications since the Dirty Politics hit failed to do its job hoping to succeed where Rawshark and Nicky Hager failed.

The Chief Ombudsman will investigate the Prime Minister over his refusal to release details regarding his, and his office’s contact with right-wing bloggers David Farrar and Cameron Slater.

Back in early 2014 Newstalk ZB requested records of all such contacts that had occurred over a two year period.

John Key’s office declined to release details, saying to do so would require substantial research and collation and also that some communications may have been made in Mr Key’s capacity as an MP and leader of the National Party.

Now, almost two and a half years after a formal complaint was laid with the Ombudsmen about the matter, Chief Ombudsmen Peter Boshier has announced he will investigate the compliant. Read more »

Farrar attacked by violent harpy of the hard left

David Farrar has been threatened with the breaking of his legs and a violent mugging in a dark alley by former Fairfax journalist Rachel Stewart.

The nastiness of the hard left is revealed once more.

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Labour’s dodgy polling

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Arts, Travel & Lifestyle blogger David Farrar is widely regarded as being New Zealand’s best pollster. That is why we use him for Incite polling, and why we listen when he tells us a poll is dodgy.

He is clearly saying Labour’s polling is dodgy, and has posted about it.

 

A rather desperate Andrew Little has released their internal polling from  to try and convince people they are really winning.

UMR is a very good company and I often refer people to them, if I can’t do the work. But I will comment on this specific poll as it is vastly different to every other poll published.   Read more »

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Which pollsters can you trust, and which are bought and paid for?

We should have something like this here.

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In the process of being an analyser of polls, Nate Silver has had to figure out which are actually delivering reliable and honest results, and which are essentially fronts that get you the answer you’re paying for.

We know that Colmar Brunton are one of the most variable and have a clear bias towards Labour, for example.

As for Horizon, they had the Conservative party in government as part of the coalition with National right now.

Whenever the Fraser House spy tells me that Labour are polling in the low to mid-thirties, and then paid-for polls come out, you can reliably subtract 4-6 points, every time.

 

– 538

Labour’s List Problem

David Farrar had a very good post yesterday at Kiwiblog about Labour’s list problem.

In 2014 Labour got only five List MPs. Andrew Little only got in on special votes.

They are polling well below the level they were at three years ago. They normally lose support once an election campaign starts as minor parties get more attention. And already Winston is picking up support at their expense.

So at this stage it would be a brave person to predict they will lift their party vote from 2014, and hence their total number of MPs from 32.

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Shock for Andrew Little in latest INCITE|Curia poll

INCITE

In our latest edition of INCITE: Politics which will be released today there is a catastrophic result for Andrew Little in our monthly INCITE|Curia polling.

Exclusive to us Curia looks again at how New Zealanders think our political leaders are doing. This is the only public poll in New Zealand that reports on approval of party leaders.

We asked 1,000 New Zealanders “Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Key/Andrew Little is handling his job as Prime Minister/Leader of the Opposition?”

And the results are devastating. Andrew Little has slumped 12 points while John Key has increased slightly by 1%.

It is clear that last months results were a ‘dead cat’ bounce and Andrew Little is now back under the pump for his lack of performance.

Full details are only available to subscribers.   Read more »