David Parker

Labour’s election campaign is slip, slidin’ away

The election is slip, slidin’ away from Labour.

They are approaching the territory of Bill English, expect a sudden collapse of their vote in this final week as people wake up to the fact that they can’t win.

Voters don’t vote for losers.For the same reason people leave early from a rugby match when their team is getting pasted the voters will abandon Labour.

National is urging its supporters not to split their vote as our latest poll confirms the minor parties are on the rise – and Labour continues to slump.

The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll signals a horror start to the final week of the campaign for Labour as its support slides to 22.4 per cent, putting it on track for an unprecedented trouncing.

It appears to have bled some support to the Greens, who are on 13 per cent. But most attention is around the seeming unstoppable rise of Winston Peters and NZ First.

Read more »

Fed Farmers and NZIER agree…Labour’s CGT is a dud

Despite some epic dancing on the head of a pin by David Parker, the Federated Farmers commissioned report from NZIER is damning of Labour’s Capital Gains Tax.

A report by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) reinforces Federated Farmers concerns over the Labour Party’s proposed Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

“The NZIER say the Labour Party’s proposed Capital Gains Tax would not be a good addition to New Zealand’s tax mix as it is proposed, we agree,” says Dr William Rolleston, Federated Farmers President.

“The nature of politics will see the Labour Party try to dismiss the NZIER report.  Yet they must listen to the message because the messenger is credible.

“We commissioned the NZIER to examine Labour’s CGT proposal since it represents a major change to New Zealand’s tax system and has been devoid of critical analysis.

“Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the report comes down to the Labour Party’s revenue assumptions.  In 2011, the Labour Party estimated a 15 percent capital gains tax would raise $17.5 million in its first year, rising to $3.7 billion by 2026.

“The NZIER tell us these estimates are high, since the revenue potential of its proposed CGT is more likely to be half that sum.  In fact it may be smaller.  If this key policy is out by such a margin it asks fundamental questions about the Party’s shadow budget.

“What’s more, the Labour Party’s estimates of CGT revenue were revised up this year.  The NZIER noting Labour’s “…2014 estimates are less believable than the 2011 estimates.”

“Labour also expects to raise at least $1.3 billion from the farming sector but a more realistic estimate is half that sum in 15 years’ time.  NZIER further estimates that the loss in current farm values will be between $2.4 billion and $7.6 billion.  But this will be a one off hit for farmers.

“Lower land values mean lower tax revenue too.   Read more »

Has Grant triggered the Labour Party panic button?

Their internal polling must be going to the dogs if he’s scared Labour’s #2 won’t get back in on the list!

Grant says Jacinda and Plughead are losers

If Labour drop another couple of percent in the party vote, and two or three of the Labour star performers take their electorate, like Nash and Davis, they could very well face a the reality of having no list MPs at all.

A Labour party without it’s finance shadow minister?  A Labour party without Jacinda Ardern?

It’s is a reality, and Grant Robertson knows it.

Sledge of the day

No need to say anything for this one except for turn it up a bit, just don’t watch with your  mouth full.

What 25.7% means for Labour

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Arts, travel & lifestyle blogger David Farrar has a running average of the polls over on Kiwiblog. At the moment Labour is at 25.7% but is trending down.

What this means is that Labour is down to 32 MPs, and probably less. The other interesting thing is that Labour will probably keep winning seats where tired old warhorses like Trevor Mallard havent realised their day is done so wont leave.

If MPs like Mallard and the Stenographer Rooter Iain Lees-Galloway hold their seats, Kelston goes to Labour as expected, and they pick up some of the Maori seats, and Cosgrove and Nash win their seats Labour could have as many as 28 Electorate MPs.

This would mean Labour would only have four scum List MPs.

David Parker
Jacinda Ardern
Sue Moroney
Andrew Little

If Labour falls much more and still holds onto its seats they could lose Moroney and Little. And they are falling.

What a pity Jonesy jacked it. He would have been far better than Cunliffe.

Proof that Labour changes their CGT policy on the run

We normally accuse Labour of making policy up.   In this case, they had the guts of it, but have been tinkering with it since they announced it.

If you download the policy and inspect the document properties, you’ll see they  have altered and republished the policy since it was announced.

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Just to be clear, the PDF was created created after the debate on Tuesday night, and modified again yesterday morning, after David Parker had clarified things on Morning Report.

Seems that the Labour CGT policy remains a moving target

Cartoon of the Day

Credit:  SonovaMin

Credit: SonovaMin

Labour’s 100,000 affordable home promise

My readers aren’t buying Labour’s 100,000 fairy tale. Two problems: Where, and when?

Let’s start with where:

Labours promise as hollow as a pipe.

Back in 2006 Helen Clark and her Labour cronies were going to deliver some 3,000 affordable houses at Hobsonville Point. That never eventuated. Now Cunliffe is saying they will deliver 100,000 houses.

If it can’t deliver 3,000 how on earth does it expect to deliver 100,00?

And where will it build them? The reason Auckland (for example) has a a crisis is because there is a lack of land available and the National Government responded with the Special Housing Area fast tracking. That will result in land and sections.

Going back to mid 2013 when the government was building it’s justification for the SHA’s it found that the available supply of sections was just 4,000 in the region.

So just where does Labour think it is going to build 100,000 houses? No matter if it is Auckland or another town or city the fact remains that there is simply not the sections available to build 100,000 houses upon.

Labour’s folly is to have made such a stupid announcement without thinking it through. Is this the gaff of the week?

100,000 take a lot of space. It will need to be set aside, which isn’t a central government issue, but a local one.

Next, when?   Read more »

Labour refuse to confirm leaks on Asset buy-back fund

Winston Peters is the one who lacks principles

Winston Peters is the one who lacks principles

Andrea Vance’s sources have her convinced Labour have set aside $100M to buy back NZ assets.

Labour leader David Cunliffe is refusing to be drawn on whether the party will announce plans for a new asset fund, but says he “stands behind public opinion” in opposition to asset sales.

The party is understood to be planning to set aside funds to buy mainly New Zealand assets, partly to woo NZ First leader Winston Peters into coalition.

Labour would likely need the support of both the Greens and NZ First to form a government. It has said a policy costing about $100 million a year is yet to be announced.

$100M a year doesn’t stretch very far.  But it would allow Labour the high road claiming they are “buying back our assets as we can afford it”.   Read more »

Show me the money set to make a return

It looks like Labour is going to conjure a few billion out of nowhere and attempt to fool voters into thinking they will buy back the assets.

Labour is understood to be planning to set aside funds to buy mainly New Zealand assets, partly to woo Winston Peters into coalition.

The party, which would likely need the support of both the Greens and NZ First to form a government, has said it has one policy costing roughly $100 million a year to announce.

It trimmed back its spending plans after the pre-election update from Treasury showed a weaker outlook than May’s Budget.

Yesterday, leader David Cunliffe refused to say whether the remaining announcement related to buying back assets sold by National, but said voters “will certainly know before they cast their vote”.

Finance spokesman David Parker would not be drawn on what the policy was, but said the size of the fund meant “if this was a big asset buy-back fund, it would take 60 years”.   Read more »