David Shearer

No Brian, Jones won’t be PM

Just four days ago Brian Edwards was pondering whether or not Shane Jones would become NZs first Maori PM.

… as I watched and re-watched this speech, I thought I could perhaps see a future Leader of the Opposition and a Prime Minister to boot.

Well, the answer for Brian Edwards is a resounding no, not ever, as Shane Jones dropped his bombshell that he is leaving the sinking ship that is the David Cunliffe led Labour party.

Watch Labour go feral on him…They won’t be able to resist going nasty. The hate National for sure but they hate turn coats even more.

Shane Jones knows where all the bodies are buried and as Labour turns feral on him he will unload as a favour to the guys who gave him a lifeboat.

Labour is shellshocked. Neither David Cunliffe or David Parker fronted last night as the carnage unfolded. Moira Coatsworth simply mumbled inanities to the media and the left wing blogosphere went into ostrich mode.

When I made my comments about Shane Jones on The Huddle last night, about being the most effective MP for Labour this year just before 6pm little did I know what was about to unfold. Labour has lost their best performing MP now, the only MP currently that resonated with working NZ and was addressing important issues that were important to voters.

Steven Joyce was sledging but he was accurate when he tweeted:

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Shearer. David Shearer… now where have I heard that name before?

They stuck new batteries in David Shearer so he could come out and be “outraged” about power prices.

Power prices are soaring “out of control” on the eve of winter, with some companies hiking prices up a “staggering” 9 per cent in one month, Labour says.

The price increases were “totally unreasonable” for Kiwi families, energy spokesman David Shearer said.

Energy Minister Simon Bridges earlier predicted power prices to rise about 2.4 per cent over the six months from February to August 2014, but Shearer claimed many regions had exceeded this in just one month.

“In Christchurch, some power company prices have jumped over six per cent in just a month. Other companies have hiked their prices up a staggering 9 per cent in a month,” Shearer said.

“It is simply not fair for Kiwis to face those sorts of bills.”

Shearer based his assertions on data from the PowerSwitch website, which tracks national power prices.

The latest PowerSwitch figures show significant price rises from March to April across the country.

Christchurch appears to have been hit the hardest, with two companies, Nova and Powershop, recording price increases of more than 9 per cent for the month.

Cherry picking.  I don’t blame him, but he also didn’t quote the prices that stayed the same, or went down.  We have an issue of “average” increases versus a cherry picked increase of one particular supplier.  A supplier which, had held the prices low a long as possible but had to catch up.   Read more »

Is Simon Bridges really a future National leader? Ctd

Simon Bridges has always had the look of someone who thinks he will become Prime Minister almost by default.

He has a few things going for him like a safe seat and a reasonable media presence, but he looks like he is more of a Bill English, David Shearer or David Cunliffe type leader than a John Key or a Helen Clark.

What happened to English, Shearer and Cunliffe is they thought they could do well in the polls through natural talent, not through hard work and building up their party and people to make sure they could win. Like English, Shearer and Cunliffe, Simon Bridges is doing little build up his own caucus, or the National Party or the vitally important donor base.   Read more »

Cunliffe goes over the top and signals Labour will continue to provide for bludgers

Aside from not wanting to let the facts get in the way yet again David Cunliffe is starting to adopt the verbal approach of his chief of staff, we had the Garner interview that was mate this and mate that which from a toff in a Herne Bay mansion is ridiculous.

We now have the totally over the top reaction to what is some pretty minor changes to state house tenancies, reviewing a tenancy in a HNZ house to someone whose luck has improved to free up a house for someone more deserving is now “disgusting”.

Clearly there is some media training going on but with the same results that Phil Goff and David Shearer had…you can’t completely re invent someone.

And what of the policy?

Sounds like pretty sensible stuff to me and no doubt any other working person out there paying private rent.

The changes, coming into effect tomorrow, give community housing providers greater access to money to subsidise people in desperate need of a home.

It means non-government groups can offer income-related rents for tenants for the first time.

Social Development Minister Paula Bennett said it would allow more diverse housing options for people on the waiting list, and make houses more affordable.

“It means significant savings for those renting the houses, with the state picking up a bigger part of the bill for them,” she said.

The government has set a target for 20 per cent of the country’s social housing to be provided by non-government organisations by 2017. Currently there are about 1200, but Minister for Housing Nick Smith said he wants that number to rise to 12,000.

Many of those new projects will be in West Auckland – where about 1200 of the 5500 people on the national state house waiting list live.  Read more »

Lessons from Australia for the Labour party

I have had people ask me why I post on politics in the UK and in Australia.

My usual answer is because I believe them to be relevant. Those two countries provide a hint as to what happens in domestic politics. Especially with the Labour party.

Whilst National maintains loose ties with the Conservatives  in the UK and somewhat closer ties with the Liberals in Australia it is Labour that maintains very close ties with Labour in Australia and the UK labour party.

Many of David Shearer’s and now David Cunliffe’s strap lines and core policies come from UK Labour. So watching what happens in those countries leads to a closer and better understanding of what is going on here.

Which brings me to Labour’s problems in New Zealand…and the similarity between the problems the ALP is currently experiencing.

THE time has come for someone to take the Labor Party by the scruff of the neck and shake it until it recognises reality, truly admits defeat, reorders its priorities and changes key policies that have failed it repeatedly at the ballot box.

[...]

Logic and survival dictate that the ALP must drop the convoluted arguments it has used for defending the carbon tax, the mining tax and its economic management for much of the past six years. Labor has to do what Tony Abbott did to the legacy of John Howard’s Work Choices, and bury and cremate the mining and carbon taxes.  Read more »

David Cunliffe’s ongoing lies and deception

incorect

Yesterday David Cunliffe spent an hour on NewstalkZB with Tim Fookes.

I listened so you didn’t have to. It was dreadful but the amount of times David Cunliffe ‘mis-spoke’ or deliberately lied was incredible.

Take his claims on capital gains tax and his attack on farming.

David Cunliffe attacks farmers and lies about CGT David Cunliffe NewstalkZB. "David Cunliffe attacks farmers and lies about CGT"

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Hosking editorial on polls

Mike Hosking says Labour has no chance unless they change their game plan.

So with two weekend polls to deal with, the common theme is how close they are.

When polls vary you can dismiss them, especially if you’re the one that hasn’t polled so well. But these two polls are remarkably close: National on 47 and 46, Labour on 31 and 31, and the Greens on 11 and 11.

Given that, there is no escaping the fact Labour has major trouble. Although it’s six months to the election and although there is policy to come, and you can probably argue the bulk of us aren’t really tuned into the fine detail of how we’re going to vote and who stands for who, as each of these polls passes and each week ticks by the intensity and pressure on the party intensifies. In this case it’s Labour.

They pressured David Shearer into quitting with numbers that were better than those David Cunliffe has right now. The pressure is enormous in Labour. Plus there is the added pressure of a potential traitor in their midst.

The Greens at 11 are about where the Greens always are and have been. New Zealand First may or may not be there. In one poll they have 7 and in the other they don’t cross the 5 per cent threshold. My guess is they’ll make it and line up with the left, and in doing so will probably line up behind the left to at least give them a shot at forming a government. But that’s a punt, and if you’re Labour you’re not relying on it to save you.  Read more »

Cunliffe certain, sort of, it’s not Shearer in bed with Dotcom

David Cunliffe is certain, sort of, that it isn’t David Shearer who has crawled into bed with Kim Dotcom.

Labour leader David Cunliffe says he would be “extremely surprised” if MP and former leader David Shearer left Labour for Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party.

Mr Dotcom said in an interview with TVNZ’s Q and A programme on the weekend that one of the politicians he really admires is Mr Shearer.

He has also said that he has an MP with an electorate lined up and ready to jump ship to his party.

But Mr Cunliffe is confident that MP is not Mr Shearer.

“A lot of us admire David Shearer but that doesn’t mean he’s going to jump ship into the Dotcom party,” he told TVNZ’s Breakfast.

“I’d be extremely surprised if that occurred.”  Read more »

Danyl on the latest polls and where the trend is going

Danyl McLauchlan maintains a poll of polls with a bias corrected and non-bias corrected version. Both are showing the same thing.

Bias corrected aggregated poll of polls below. Non-bias corrected graph here.

nzpolls20140330bc

Safe to say that Cunliffe isn’t working out as Labour leader. He’s losing voters to National and he’s also trending down in the preferred Prime Minister rating.

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I wonder what David Shearer thinks when he looks at the gap between National and Labour since the election? At the time I thought ditching Shearer was the right thing to do, but its starting to look like it was a horrible, horrible mistake.  Read more »

Snapper bag limit no April Fools joke

David Shearer - Dead Fish

Remember the snapper debate?  It could have taken down a government, and instead it claimed the leader of the opposition.

Snapper fishers will need to lengthen their rulers and return more fish to the sea from Tuesday as measures to restore the country’s most popular fishery take effect.

This is the last weekend when recreational fishers can legally take home as many as nine snapper with a minimum size of 27cm in the Snapper 1 fishery, which covers the east coast of Northland, the Hauraki Gulf and the Bay of Plenty.   Read more »