David Shearer

Could convergence become an issue

Labour continues to be mired in the 20s, the Greens are slowly climbing towards the 20s…hoovering up the disaffected hard left of Labour as The Cunliffe continues to disappoint.

Could convergence become an issue, where the Greens supplant Labour as the largest opposition party.

Matthew Hooton discussed that in his column at the NBR:

Don’t rule out convergence.

Labour’s disastrous decision to replace David Shearer with David Cunliffe and spend nearly a year swinging to the far left has inevitably crashed its poll numbers.

The recent ploy to swing back to the centreappears to have come too late. The days are long gone when Mr Shearer had Labour polling around the mid-30s and, with the Greens in the low teens, well on track to become prime minister. In both the major polls released this week, Roy Morgan and Fairfax-Ipsos, Mr Cunliffe’s Labour was languishing under 25%.

Both polls were taken mainly after Mr Cunliffe’s apology for being a man, but also after his major education announcements. Despite Labour strategists privately claiming their internal polling responded favourably, the public polls suggest that the promises of cheap laptops and slightly smaller classes have failed to capture the imagination of middle-class parents.

Worse for Labour, while there may be good evidence the polls tend to overestimate National’s support by around 5% at the expense of smaller parties, the trend line for Labour in at least the last two elections has almost exactly predicted its actual party vote.

In 2011, Phil Goff led Labour to its worst result since 1925. If Mr Cunliffe’s tilt to the centre continues to fail, he risks taking New Zealand’s oldest political party below the 24% it won in the first two elections following the World War I.

Poll numbers also have an element of self-fulfilling prophecy. People don’t like voting for losers. As the election nears, Labour risks losing a crucial few further points to the Greens, Internet-Mana and NZ First.

Bill English currently wears the electoral dunce cap in the New Zealand parliament, having led National to its 21% debacle in 2002. The finance minister may dare to hope he might finally get to pass it on to Mr Cunliffe after September 20.

For all this, the risk of a change of government remains high.   Read more »

Labour’s worst poll result in 15 years in Digipoll

 

We are voting positive #forabetternz...for National

We are voting positive #forabetternz…for National

The latest Herald Digipoll is out and The Cunliffe experiment is shown for what it is…abject failure.

Labour’s support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.

Its 26.5 per cent support is a slide of four points since June.

With just two months to the election, Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.

On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.

National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.

Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

The second-most-preferred PM out of Labour MPs is David Shearer, with 2.2 per cent, followed by Jacinda Ardern on 1.4 per cent.  Read more »

No one likes The Cunliffe

Cunliffe - Sh_t

David Cunliffe aka The Cunliffe, isn’t as popular as Greg Presland thinks he is.

In fact the Fairfax Ipsos polls shows that Labour would do better without him.

Vernon Small delivers the bad news.

Labour would get an immediate lift in the polls if it dumped leader David Cunliffe, a new poll suggests.

The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll reveals that Cunliffe may have become Labour’s biggest liability, with a significant number of voters saying they would be more likely to vote for Labour if someone else were leader.

Click here for full poll results in graphics.

The effect is sizeable, making a 13.5 percentage point difference to Labour’s vote.

Although a similar effect is seen on National when asked the same question about John Key, it is much smaller.

The finding will plunge Labour further into crisis after yesterday’s poll result cementing Labour’s support in the mid-20s.

Privately, Labour and the Greens now acknowledge that it would take an unprecedented swing against National to force a change of government on September 20.

Some Labour MPs were yesterday privately canvassing leadership options, even at this late stage.

But they believe Labour would be even more severely punished by such an outward sign of panic.    Read more »

Has there been a coup in Labour?

It would appear so, the Bay of Plenty Times is reporting that Labour has a new leader…and its the old leader David Shearer.

Shearer-leader

 

And of course the whole article is about the mixed messages labour and their “new leader” are sending which is they love mining when their policies are dead set against it…especially open cast mines like this.

A visit to Newmont Waihi Gold’s mining operation was just one of the items on Labour MP David Shearer’s agenda when he visited Waihi last Wednesday.

Mr Shearer was accompanied by Coromandel Labour candidate, Korbinian Poschl and the candidate for Tauranga, Dr Rachel Jones who is 25 on the party list so is likely to get into parliament at this election.

None of the three Labour representatives had visited the mine workings before so the quick Newmont-organised tour was a chance for them to get a glimpse of the gold mining operation.

The three were visibly impressed when faced with the large hole in the ground which is the Martha Pit.

Newmont spokesperson and tour guide Kit Wilson explained the workings of the pit, pointing out different layers, old workings and the way the ore (and waste rock) is mined and sent to the processing plant.

Just as the mini tour was departing the siren indicating a blast went off and the Labour visitors quickly got back out of the mini-van to witness and feel a mine blast.

Ohhh, excited by bang bangs…who isn’t?

 

- Bay of Plenty Times

The Predictable Failure of David Cunliffe, Ctd

Cunliffe - Sh_t

The two most recent polls have shown what all of us known.

David Cunliffe has a poo fingered touch, everything he touches turns to poop.

This was entirely predictable.  Read more »

Fairfax/Ipsos poll hammers the nails into Cunliffe’s coffin

If you thought the Roy Morgan poll was bad the Fairfax poll basically confirms that neither is rogue with similar numbers to each other.

National appears to be tightening its grip on the election, with our latest poll cementing its massive lead.

Today’s stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political poll has National on 54.8 per cent support – a staggering 30-point lead over Labour, but down 1.7 points from our last poll.

John Key is also preferred prime minister among most voters, at 53.7 per cent support to David Cunliffe’s 12.8.

Click here for full graphics.

The only glimmer of good news for Labour is that it appears to have reversed the slide in our previous poll and has risen 1.7 points, to 24.9 per cent.

But pollster Matt Benson said undecided voters were shaping up as an important factor and their numbers had been volatile in the previous three polls.

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

That will bring little cheer to Labour, however, as it prepares for its election campaign launch, now just weeks away.

Read more »

Cartoon of the Day

Credit:  SonovaMin

Credit: SonovaMin

Planned political hit job on cops continues

Labour hate the cops with a passion.

Crime rates are way down – and I’ve warned for a while now that the left will do anything they can to target Police and make them look bad for delivering the goods under National.

At the weekend there was a historical story about some silly cops recording burglaries wrongly.

They were punished – and to be fair the HoS gave some perspective.

“Tims said the analysis since the internal review found that the incorrect coding of burglaries would have “affected less than half of 1 per cent of Counties Manukau’s approximately 150,000 recorded crimes over that time”. “

But here’s the real story.

It was written by Bevan Hurley and regular readers will know that Bevan’s sources for stories are almost always suspect.

This was an inside job designed to destroy colleagues and take out the Commissioner, Mike Bush, the former Manukau district commander.

This information came from an internal police report.   Read more »

That’s nice David but what do the Greens say about it?

David Shearer supports drilling for resources…the only problem is he can’t guarantee any position on this because as Labour sinks in the polls the made green taliban nutters are rising and they will get a say in what really happens if they are in government.

Deep sea drilling would continue under a Labour Government, but with more safety regulations in case it goes “very very wrong”, Labour’s energy and resources spokesman David Shearer said this morning.

Mr Shearer appeared on The Nation this morning to talk about Labour’s oil drilling policy.

“We support oil drilling [and] we have done in the past, there’s no major change there,” he said.

“What we want to see is a regime very much like in Norway where there is good processes of approval, there’s tight regulations … a regime for making sure that money is used well, and at the same time making sure our transition to renewable [energy] goes [ahead].”

Yeah, all good except for the Greens.  Read more »

Is David Cunliffe about to lurch Labour back towards the centre?

Matthew Hooton believes that The Cunliffe may be about to lurch Labour back towards the centre as they attempt to get some traction…any traction at all..in this election campaign.

If that is the case then John Tamihere’s assessment in the Herald this morning is spot on, that “He’s an extraordinarily talented chap but you never get to see the real David. You get to see the David that he thinks you want to see. And that’s his problem.”

Hooton is alluding to that in his column at NBR.

If David Cunliffe becomes prime minister this spring, the origins of his win will be traced to the last week.

This may seem counterintuitive. After all, his highest profile move was his apology for being a man, generally lampooned as absurd. More substantively, though, it revealed a deeply collectivist worldview, where people’s main identity is not as an individual with personal responsibility but where we are primarily members of categories from which we accrue collective guilt and credit.

Such a political philosophy may be abhorrent to anyone who values basic concepts of human autonomy but it was wildly popular among Labour’s Women’s Council, the unions and the far-left activists who back Mr Cunliffe. Some even rang Mr Cunliffe’s office weeping with gratitude.

Intentionally or otherwise, the apology created cover for a repositioning of Mr Cunliffe back to the centre, which would begin at Labour’s conference the following day and is at the heart of Labour’s strategy for the next 10 weeks.

The Cunliffe needs to do this because so far his socialist prescription is failing to resonate.

Mr Cunliffe ran for leader from the far-left, with rhetoric about red roses, the failed neoliberal experiment, the missing million, the misery of 250,000 children living in poverty, and a commitment that his Labour would be “deep red, not pale blue.”

As a strategy to become leader it worked well but it reversed all the progress Labour had made in the wider polls under David Shearer’s more centrist approach.

Talking down New Zealand as a failed state with starving kids wasn’t connecting with voters experiencing economic growth, falling unemployment, rising wages, low inflation, still-modest interest rates and a kiwi dollar enabling them to afford some luxuries after five difficult years.   Read more »