Iâ€™ve always been reluctant to believe in media conspiracies, but having watched the way in which Radio New Zealand and TVNZ have been covering this election campaign I have to conclude that those driving the election coverage on those channels are either wildly Left-wing or plain ignorant, and Iâ€™m genuinely not sure which explanation is the more plausible.
The media have almost entirely ignored what ACT has been saying, even when Jamie Whyte drives a horse and cart through the economic policies of other parties. They give only minimal coverage to what the Taxpayersâ€™ Union is saying about the cost of the political promises made by most parties, even though those comments are based on the research of an economist who did the costing of election promises for the Inland Revenue Department for a number of years.
The media give extensive coverage to the comments of Winston Peters, even though his promises are so outrageous that the policies of New Zealand First are the only ones which the Taxpayersâ€™ Union has been unable to put a dollar cost on â€“ they are extremely vague and very expensive.
Winston is portrayed as an honest politician, even though he was the man who held up the â€śNOâ€ť sign for the media when he should have admitted that yes, New Zealand First had indeed received a large donation from Owen Glenn. Read more »
Today David Cunliffe challenged me to release information obtained from Labour people. I am not sure if this is a good idea either for David or Labour.
The nature of a political blog is that when there are campaigns on people try pitching stories against their opponents. There have been a number of nasty campaigns going on inside Labour, and so I have received a lot of stories from different people in Labour.
There are some absolute crackers.
Like the ABC faction member who has briefed about the two mystery donors to his leadership campaign trust.
Or the identities of all the anonymous bloggers on the government payroll that blog for the Standard.
Or the DC faction briefing against a leadership opponents spouseâ€™s corruption problems.
Or the fly on the wall at Fraser House who gives details of the financial position of Labour.Â Read more »
This just came in from my good friends in the GCSB.
Personal message from Ambassador to President, not for normal distribution
OPERATION DIVIDE AND RULE
Can I thank you personally for agreeing to my recommendation that New Zealand be exempted from the sanctions that were imposed yesterday. Â This will drive a useful wedge between the 5 eyes nations and cause some to question further whether New Zealand should remain part of the club.
Our strategy on the ground here is working well. Â The support provided years ago to Comrade Kim to set up his internet piracy operation is paying enormous dividends. Â As you can see from this video his funding of our Comrades in the New Zealand Communist movement has New Zealand on the cusp of revolution and the overthrow of the old Zionist controlled order is at hand. Read more »
Russell Blackstock has read the tea leaves and has declared the election all but over for Labour.
However, there is one slim bit of hope: Â That National stuff up and have a pivotal election moment.
Cunliffe’s [pivotal election] moment came at the beginning of last month when he told the Women’s Refuge forum that Labour would put an extra $15 million a year into refuges and other groups supporting the victims of family violence.
“Can I begin by saying I’m sorry,” he said. “I don’t often say it. I’m sorry for being a man right now, because family and sexual violence is perpetrated overwhelmingly by men against women and children.”
His message went down well with the overwhelmingly female audience. Refuge chief executive Heather Henare described Cunliffe’s speech as “inspiring”.
But the backlash was swift and brutal and Cunliffe was still talking about it two weeks later before conceding it was a misjudgment.
If that misjudgment proves to be Cunliffe’s undoing, he will join a long list of leading New Zealand politicians to blow it on the countdown to polling day.
A lots of polls showed, support for Cunliffe’s apology was around 20%. Â Turn that around, and you have a lot of potential voters that aren’t impressed with you.
But the thing is, this one was personal. Â It hit home. Â Because the left, overplaying its hand, flooded the nation’s conscience with the stats that one our of three women are subject to a situation that some class as rape. Â In short, New Zealand had a rape culture. Â Read more »
Paul Little wrote a column today in the Herald on Sunday where he attacks Jamie Whyte’s call for the end to race based policies and describes it as a “vile play”.
Don Brash responds on Facebook.
I know how Jamie Whyte will be feeling today, attacked on all sides by media commentators. One article, by one Paul Little in todayâ€™s â€śHerald on Sundayâ€ť, is headlined â€śACTâ€™s race card a vile playâ€ť. It really is astonishing that somebody who calls for an end to race-based legislation can be accused of â€śplaying a vile race cardâ€ť.
In his article Mr Little accuses Jamie Whyte of â€śrecycling the tactic that failed so spectacularly for Don Brash. Of course, Brash did it to get some political notice when his party was in the doldrums. It succeeded in the short term but helped finish him off in the long runâ€ť.
Mr Little is completely wrong. A commitment to ending race-based preferences was one of the five goals I outlined in my very first speech in Parliament after becoming Leader of the National Party in October 2003, and had nothing to do with any short-term desire to get noticed. Â Read more »
Labour continues to be mired inÂ theÂ 20s, the Greens are slowly climbing towards the 20s…hoovering up the disaffected hard left of Labour as The Cunliffe continues to disappoint.
Could convergence become an issue, where the Greens supplant Labour as the largest opposition party.
Matthew Hooton discussed that in his column at the NBR:
Donâ€™t rule out convergence.
Labourâ€™s disastrous decision to replace David Shearer with David Cunliffe and spend nearly a year swinging to the far left has inevitably crashed its poll numbers.
The recent ploy toÂ swing back to the centreappears to have come too late. The days are long gone when Mr Shearer had Labour polling around the mid-30s and, with the Greens in the low teens, well on track to become prime minister. In both the major polls released this week,Â Roy MorganÂ andÂ Fairfax-Ipsos, Mr Cunliffeâ€™s Labour was languishing under 25%.
Both polls were taken mainly after Mr Cunliffeâ€™s apology for being a man, but also after his majorÂ education announcements. Despite Labour strategists privately claiming their internal polling responded favourably, the public polls suggest that the promises of cheap laptops and slightly smaller classes have failed to capture the imagination of middle-class parents.
Worse for Labour, while there may be good evidence the polls tend toÂ overestimate Nationalâ€™s support by aroundÂ 5%Â at the expense of smaller parties, the trend line for Labour in at least the last two elections has almost exactly predicted its actual party vote.
In 2011, Phil Goff led Labour to its worst result since 1925. If Mr Cunliffeâ€™s tilt to the centre continues to fail, he risks taking New Zealandâ€™s oldest political party below the 24% it won in the first two elections following the World War I.
Poll numbers also have an element of self-fulfilling prophecy. People donâ€™t like voting for losers. As the election nears, Labour risks losing a crucial few further points to the Greens, Internet-Mana and NZ First.
Bill English currently wears the electoral dunce cap in the New Zealand parliament, having led National to its 21% debacle in 2002. The finance minister may dare to hope he might finally get to pass it on to Mr Cunliffe after September 20.
For all this, the risk of a change of government remains high. Â Read more »
The Labour party is demanding an apology from the NZ Herald, their paid staffers who blog anonymously at The Standard are running a campaign of letter writing and bullying against the Herald and this morning they responded…by saying diddums.
It is common in election years for political parties under pressure to attempt to shoot the messenger. In 2005, theÂ HeraldÂ was stridently criticised and accused of bias by National supporters for our reportage of Dr Don Brash and the Exclusive Brethren. In 2008 it was the turn of Winston Peters and his New Zealand First people to call for resignations of the editor and political editor for the inconvenient revelation of funding from millionaire Owen Glenn, despite his “No” sign. Last election it was National partisans again, livid at theÂ Herald on SundayÂ andÂ Heraldfor John Key and John Banks talking openly before a microphone accidentally left on their “cup of tea” table in a cafe.
This year it is the turn of Labour and its leader, David Cunliffe, incensed at reporting on the donations to the party and its MPs by the controversial Chinese migrant Donghua Liu — and that party’s connections to him.
Mr Cunliffe is considering unspecified legal options against theÂ Herald. Party supporters have weighed in with accusations of political bias and complicated right-wing conspiracies.
The noise obscures the validity of theÂ Herald‘s reporting.
I don’t think the Herald is inherently biased. The Donghua Liu story shows that. Some staff may well be biased, but the Herald as a whole is not…though it has taken a more left wing slant in recent years. There is nothing wrong with that…the audience will leave and something new will come along, that is the way of media.Â Read more »
A reader shares his thoughts about the “missing million”:
The ‘Missing Million’ Theory is being dragged out on a increasing regularity now that the Left increasing despairs at the polling results, this suits their agenda in two ways:
1) They can say the polls don’t pick up this million in the polling activity –Â therefore they are actually performing better
2) It is becoming increasingly apparent with their desertion of the middle ground they need to lock into another source of vote or they will end up cannibalising their own Block.
The biggest problem they face is how exactly they will convince this Million to vote (let alone enrol).Â Read more »
There is trouble inside Labour.
Former General Secretary, Mike Smith, the guy who lied to Police and the Electoral Commission over the pledge card, is being very vocal now about how dreadful David Cunliffe is.
David Cunliffe badly needs a new stump speech. On Thursday in Whanganui I heard him depress a large and sympathetic audience for ten minutes with tales of national woe, then promise a positive campaign but give no details. It is good to know that a positive campaign is proposed. Labour has promised an economic upgrade; it also needs a communications upgrade, and besides being positive it must be relevant. That could shift the polls.
The policy bones are all there â€“ theyâ€™re just not connected in a narrative that relates to voters. Because they are not connected they canâ€™t be repeated, so too much communication is undisciplined and unfocussed, as we saw last week from several players. Focussed and disciplined communications are necessary for voters to have a clear idea of what is on offer, how it relates to them, and why Labourâ€™s alternative is best for them and for the country.
It is the mantra of misery and it besets everything that Labour says and does.
Message relevance is critical; this was key to Labourâ€™s late communication in 2005, described to some extent byÂ Mike WilliamsÂ in todayâ€™s Herald. Relevant communication to non-voters was critical to Labour coming from behind to lead on election day. Don Brash is still crying in the beer about it. And while Iâ€™m on 2005, getting Labourâ€™s numbers up is also critical to post-election decisions. The lead party will have first crack at forming a government, and much will depend on the numbers on the day. Â Read more »
Don Brash posted this on Facebook about John Banks, and notes the hypocrisy of the left wing, especially the Labour party.
So the court has found John Banks guilty. Three observations.
First, I have known John Banks for 30 years and have not found him to be anything other than an honest man.
Second, it is a huge tragedy for a man who has overcome great personal difficulties; served with distinction as a Member of Parliament, as a Minister, and as the mayor of Auckland; and helped to raise three Russian orphans.
But third, when I contrast what John Banks was found by the court to have done with what Helen Clarkâ€™s Labour Party did in 2005 â€“ without the slightest attempt by the Police to call her to account â€“ the offence of which he has been found guilty is utterly trivial.Â Read more »