Don Brash

This just in from the GCSB

This just came in from my good friends in the GCSB.



SECRET

From Wellington

To Moscow

Personal message from Ambassador to President, not for normal distribution

OPERATION DIVIDE AND RULE

Mr President

Can I thank you personally for agreeing to my recommendation that New Zealand be exempted from the sanctions that were imposed yesterday.  This will drive a useful wedge between the 5 eyes nations and cause some to question further whether New Zealand should remain part of the club.

Our strategy on the ground here is working well.  The support provided years ago to Comrade Kim to set up his internet piracy operation is paying enormous dividends.  As you can see from this video his funding of our Comrades in the New Zealand Communist movement has New Zealand on the cusp of revolution and the overthrow of the old Zionist controlled order is at hand. Read more »

Russell Blackstock on Labour’s only hope

Russell Blackstock has read the tea leaves and has declared the election all but over for Labour.

However, there is one slim bit of hope:  That National stuff up and have a pivotal election moment.

Cunliffe’s [pivotal election] moment came at the beginning of last month when he told the Women’s Refuge forum that Labour would put an extra $15 million a year into refuges and other groups supporting the victims of family violence.

“Can I begin by saying I’m sorry,” he said. “I don’t often say it. I’m sorry for being a man right now, because family and sexual violence is perpetrated overwhelmingly by men against women and children.”

His message went down well with the overwhelmingly female audience. Refuge chief executive Heather Henare described Cunliffe’s speech as “inspiring”.

But the backlash was swift and brutal and Cunliffe was still talking about it two weeks later before conceding it was a misjudgment.

If that misjudgment proves to be Cunliffe’s undoing, he will join a long list of leading New Zealand politicians to blow it on the countdown to polling day.

A lots of polls showed, support for Cunliffe’s apology was around 20%.   Turn that around, and you have a lot of potential voters that aren’t impressed with you.

But the thing is, this one was personal.  It hit home.  Because the left, overplaying its hand, flooded the nation’s conscience with the stats that one our of three women are subject to a situation that some class as rape.  In short, New Zealand had a rape culture.   Read more »

Don Brash on Paul Little’s HoS attack against Jamie Whyte

Paul Little wrote a column today in the Herald on Sunday where he attacks Jamie Whyte’s call for the end to race based policies and describes it as a “vile play”.

Don Brash responds on Facebook.

I know how Jamie Whyte will be feeling today, attacked on all sides by media commentators. One article, by one Paul Little in today’s “Herald on Sunday”, is headlined “ACT’s race card a vile play”. It really is astonishing that somebody who calls for an end to race-based legislation can be accused of “playing a vile race card”.

In his article Mr Little accuses Jamie Whyte of “recycling the tactic that failed so spectacularly for Don Brash. Of course, Brash did it to get some political notice when his party was in the doldrums. It succeeded in the short term but helped finish him off in the long run”.

Mr Little is completely wrong. A commitment to ending race-based preferences was one of the five goals I outlined in my very first speech in Parliament after becoming Leader of the National Party in October 2003, and had nothing to do with any short-term desire to get noticed.   Read more »

Could convergence become an issue

Labour continues to be mired in the 20s, the Greens are slowly climbing towards the 20s…hoovering up the disaffected hard left of Labour as The Cunliffe continues to disappoint.

Could convergence become an issue, where the Greens supplant Labour as the largest opposition party.

Matthew Hooton discussed that in his column at the NBR:

Don’t rule out convergence.

Labour’s disastrous decision to replace David Shearer with David Cunliffe and spend nearly a year swinging to the far left has inevitably crashed its poll numbers.

The recent ploy to swing back to the centreappears to have come too late. The days are long gone when Mr Shearer had Labour polling around the mid-30s and, with the Greens in the low teens, well on track to become prime minister. In both the major polls released this week, Roy Morgan and Fairfax-Ipsos, Mr Cunliffe’s Labour was languishing under 25%.

Both polls were taken mainly after Mr Cunliffe’s apology for being a man, but also after his major education announcements. Despite Labour strategists privately claiming their internal polling responded favourably, the public polls suggest that the promises of cheap laptops and slightly smaller classes have failed to capture the imagination of middle-class parents.

Worse for Labour, while there may be good evidence the polls tend to overestimate National’s support by around 5% at the expense of smaller parties, the trend line for Labour in at least the last two elections has almost exactly predicted its actual party vote.

In 2011, Phil Goff led Labour to its worst result since 1925. If Mr Cunliffe’s tilt to the centre continues to fail, he risks taking New Zealand’s oldest political party below the 24% it won in the first two elections following the World War I.

Poll numbers also have an element of self-fulfilling prophecy. People don’t like voting for losers. As the election nears, Labour risks losing a crucial few further points to the Greens, Internet-Mana and NZ First.

Bill English currently wears the electoral dunce cap in the New Zealand parliament, having led National to its 21% debacle in 2002. The finance minister may dare to hope he might finally get to pass it on to Mr Cunliffe after September 20.

For all this, the risk of a change of government remains high.   Read more »

Herald Editorial on attacks against them for bias

The Labour party is demanding an apology from the NZ Herald, their paid staffers who blog anonymously at The Standard are running a campaign of letter writing and bullying against the Herald and this morning they responded…by saying diddums.

It is common in election years for political parties under pressure to attempt to shoot the messenger. In 2005, the Herald was stridently criticised and accused of bias by National supporters for our reportage of Dr Don Brash and the Exclusive Brethren. In 2008 it was the turn of Winston Peters and his New Zealand First people to call for resignations of the editor and political editor for the inconvenient revelation of funding from millionaire Owen Glenn, despite his “No” sign. Last election it was National partisans again, livid at the Herald on Sunday and Heraldfor John Key and John Banks talking openly before a microphone accidentally left on their “cup of tea” table in a cafe.

This year it is the turn of Labour and its leader, David Cunliffe, incensed at reporting on the donations to the party and its MPs by the controversial Chinese migrant Donghua Liu — and that party’s connections to him.

Mr Cunliffe is considering unspecified legal options against the Herald. Party supporters have weighed in with accusations of political bias and complicated right-wing conspiracies.

The noise obscures the validity of the Herald‘s reporting.

I don’t think the Herald is inherently biased. The Donghua Liu story shows that. Some staff may well be biased, but the Herald as a whole is not…though it has taken a more left wing slant in recent years. There is nothing wrong with that…the audience will leave and something new will come along, that is the way of media.  Read more »

A reader emails about the so-called “missing million”

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A reader shares his thoughts about the “missing million”:

The ‘Missing Million’ Theory is being dragged out on a increasing regularity now that the Left increasing despairs at the polling results, this suits their agenda in two ways:

1) They can say the polls don’t pick up this million in the polling activity - therefore they are actually performing better

2) It is becoming increasingly apparent with their desertion of the middle ground they need to lock into another source of vote or they will end up cannibalising their own Block.

The biggest problem they face is how exactly they will convince this Million to vote (let alone enrol).  Read more »

Mike Smith – On Labour’s Mantra of Misery

There is trouble inside Labour.

Former General Secretary, Mike Smith, the guy who lied to Police and the Electoral Commission over the pledge card, is being very vocal now about how dreadful David Cunliffe is.

David Cunliffe badly needs a new stump speech. On Thursday in Whanganui I heard him depress a large and sympathetic audience for ten minutes with tales of national woe, then promise a positive campaign but give no details. It is good to know that a positive campaign is proposed. Labour has promised an economic upgrade; it also needs a communications upgrade, and besides being positive it must be relevant. That could shift the polls.

The policy bones are all there – they’re just not connected in a narrative that relates to voters. Because they are not connected they can’t be repeated, so too much communication is undisciplined and unfocussed, as we saw last week from several players. Focussed and disciplined communications are necessary for voters to have a clear idea of what is on offer, how it relates to them, and why Labour’s alternative is best for them and for the country.

It is the mantra of misery and it besets everything that Labour says and does.

Message relevance is critical; this was key to Labour’s late communication in 2005, described to some extent by Mike Williams in today’s Herald. Relevant communication to non-voters was critical to Labour coming from behind to lead on election day. Don Brash is still crying in the beer about it. And while I’m on 2005, getting Labour’s numbers up is also critical to post-election decisions. The lead party will have first crack at forming a government, and much will depend on the numbers on the day.   Read more »

Don Brash on John Banks

Don Brash posted this on Facebook about John Banks, and notes the hypocrisy of the left wing, especially the Labour party.

So the court has found John Banks guilty. Three observations.

First, I have known John Banks for 30 years and have not found him to be anything other than an honest man.

Second, it is a huge tragedy for a man who has overcome great personal difficulties; served with distinction as a Member of Parliament, as a Minister, and as the mayor of Auckland; and helped to raise three Russian orphans.

But third, when I contrast what John Banks was found by the court to have done with what Helen Clark’s Labour Party did in 2005 – without the slightest attempt by the Police to call her to account – the offence of which he has been found guilty is utterly trivial.  Read more »

So who will be the leader of the Internet Party?

ip1

There is ongoing speculation as to who will be the Internet party leader to take orders directly from Kim Dotcom.

We know from our numerous sources inside the mansion that Paul Brislen was asked repeatedly by Vikram Kumar to step up.

We know that Don Brash was asked personally by Kim Dotcom.

We know that Clare Curran was also asked.

We also know that Kim Dotcom spent a considerable amount of time asking John Campbell to leave his media job at TV3 to become the leader of the Internet party.    Read more »

The Letter asks “What happened to the ACT vote?”

Kiwiblog has a piece from a reader: “I have recently performed some statistical analyses of results from the 2008 and 2011 elections, in order to test a theory about voter behaviour in 2011”. The analysis shows the Conservatives got their vote from National, all wasted. NZ First also took votes away from National. The reader says his analyses show “contrary conclusions among the commentariat (eg that the low turnout hurt Labour)”; “it was National voters (more than Labour voters) who stayed home”. (source)

What happened to ACT’s vote? The Letter knows many ACT voters who think National is just pale blue Labour. Last election they stayed at home. In Jamie Whyte these “real” ACT supporters have someone they can vote for.

I didn’t “stay at home”.  I stopped voting for ACT.

It isn’t because ACT, on paper, doesn’t represent the kind of policies I want to see.  To the contrary.  I very much believe in personal responsibility, minimal government and pragmatism in law and order.

All of these ideas, and more, are poorly represented by the National Party.

But it had become clear that ACT was disorganised, off-message, and suffering the results of people that weren’t talented enough, people who were infighting and people who made for very poor ambassadors for ACT policy.   Read more »