Turnout and complacency an issue

Voter turnout could be critical, along with complacency in this years election.

National are worried because of the low turnout in National seats at the last election…that is complacency kicking in. Labour are worried because they think the missing million are all their voters.

It’s a looming spectre both National and Labour say could derail the election, but which party stands to lose the most from a low voter turnout at the polls?

Figures from the latest Stuff-Ipsos poll show 77 per cent of people say only unforeseen events like illness or disaster would stop them voting.

When the remainder were asked what might put them off voting, 17.6 per cent said it was too difficult to get to a polling station, while 8 per cent said they were too busy and a further 8 per cent said they didn’t know enough about the issues or the candidates.

The data suggests this election could mirror 2011 when turnout sunk to 74.2 per cent – the lowest  since 1981.

National Party campaign director Steven Joyce said despite many polls showing the election was National’s to lose, a Labour-led government was still a realistic outcome.

“I think firstly, these are polls and the nature of polls is that they’re people’s opinions at a point in time and that makes it a reasonably costless sort of opinion.”

Joyce said the bulk of the missing voters were likely National supporters who thought the election was a foregone conclusion.    Read more »

It’s called a cheque Colin, and stuff all people use them these days

This is a quote from Colin Craig:

“I couldn’t even buy stationary at the shop this morning, without giving the man behind the counter a signed autograph.”

A signed autograph? Really? You autographed an autograph? Was it your dad?

The man is a complete muppet.

Stupidly he is also going toe to toe with Winston Peters, who is loving the attention and promising crazy policies like BCIR.

If National wants Conservative Party support it will have to make referendums binding, says the party’s leader Colin Craig.

He’s used his keynote speech at the party’s annual conference this weekend to highlight the party’s policy as a “bottom line” for any coalition negotiations.

Speaking to about 120 of the party’s rank and file, Craig said National was running a “nanny state”, that had grown “too big and too proud”.

“It’s time the government was smaller, it’s time the government was more efficient and it’s time the government was beholden to the people who voted them in.   Read more »

Mark or Mike? Doesn’t really matter the missing million isn’t really a million or missing

I saw the headline this morning and though to myself…”Who is Mark Williams and why do I care what he has to say?”.

Mark WIlliams

Who was this Mark Williams who was providing his prognostications on our elections and turn out?

Well it turns out that it is Mike Williams aka Fat Tony the former president of the Labour party and he is shilling the mythical “missing million” story yet again.

The announcement of Laila Harre as leader of the Internet Party again put the political focus on the high rate of abstention in the 2011 general election when more than a quarter of enrolled voters failed to cast a ballot.

Harre stated her party’s main objective was to mobilise these no-shows, dubbed the “missing million”. If this happens, it is likely the survival of the National-led government would be in doubt.

The missing million fall into two groups: the nearly 800,000 who registered to vote but didn’t and the more than 200,000 Kiwis the Census tells us didn’t even bother to enrol.

Given pro-active enrolment campaigns by the Electoral Commission and the fact that enrolment in New Zealand is compulsory, it’s likely that the unenrolled group won’t reduce by much. That still leaves the enrolled non-voters. Following the 2002 general election, the Labour Party set out to understand who made up the non-vote to develop strategies to mobilise at least some in 2005.

The party observed that the non-vote was highest in safe Labour electorates and lowest in safe National seats. After research, a number of conclusions were reached.

The non-vote is nearly impossible to poll by conventional methods.

As many as half the people contacted refuse to participate. It is likely that in this group the non-voters are to be found (or not found).

Labour thinks, erroneously, that all of these “missing million” are going to vote for them or the left and hand victory to them at this year’s election. They are pouring precious resources into this group and at the same time ignoring the working poor of New Zealand and definitely ignoring the middle classes struggle.

There is some debate about whether or not there is infact a missing million.   Read more »

First Union General Secretary misleads the NZ public on TV

On Q+A today on TV One Robert Reid said that the First Union does not advise its members who to vote for, though he did admit to reading WOBH.

Look at these quotes from their latest newsletter on their website (Union Express Page 14)

John Key has announced the Election date, which will be Saturday 20 September; in six months’ time.

FIRST Union will be working hard to get its members who are not enrolled to enrol, and will encourage them to vote.

FIRST believes that the political parties that support workers and people on the margins of society would be the most practical political parties to vote for. However, the CTU and FIRST Union campaign is not going to be based around encouraging citizens who to vote for, but around changing the government.   Read more »

Why the donations scandals are necessary for Labour to push

Labour's best bagman, Mike Williams could get donations from anyone

Labour’s best bagman: Mike Williams could get donations from anyone

Labour is continuing to push hard on Judith Collins and her glass of milk. They need to…along with their attempt to get traction on the legal and declared Antoine’s dinner.

Mike Williams gave a hint over why they need this to take hold…and it isn;t so they can get hits on National. The reasons are far more venal than that.

Political parties need money to survive in non-election years and to flourish when election day looms. Unlike Australia, most European democracies and the United States, New Zealand has not instituted state funding of political parties beyond the broadcasting grant that pays for (and limits) television and radio advertising during an election campaign.

If parties want to support an administration, employ organisers and advertise anywhere other than radio and television, they must raise their own money.

Mike Williams and Labour have for years wanted state funding of political parties. When my father was president of the National party he had regular meetings with Labour’s presidents and other presidents where the topic of state funding would come up.  Read more »

Cunliffe and transparency

Cunliffe is such a tool….

He gets skewered on Radio Live for his invented convention about the Royal visit – then gets sprung for being unable to do simple addition:

DAVID CUNLIFFE: Look I welcome the royal visit. I’m sure New Zealanders will. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and baby George of course will be a much loved feature on our landscape. While we just need to make sure and it’s the Government’s decision, not the palace’s that appropriate distances are kept between the visit and the election.

MARCUS LUSH: So you think it’s wrong for them to be coming here during election year?

DAVID CUNLIFFE: No, not during election year. As long as the normal protocols are observed in terms of space between the visit and the election.

MARCUS LUSH: Okay, so how long has that got to be?

DAVID CUNLIFFE: It’s been about eight months which would imply that the election date will be at the normal time. I think once – the closest that we could find through a historical scan was sort of five or six, but eight’s more normal.

MARCUS LUSH: So you’ve changed your mind on this one?

DAVID CUNLIFFE: No, no, I’ve always said I welcome the visit and welcome the Royals here. They’ll be very popular and Kiwis have every right to see them.

MARCUS LUSH: Although I can’t see – I mean you can’t really do eight months because if they here in March/April that comes to December for the election doesn’t it?

DAVID CUNLIFFE: Yeah well it kind of implies if there’s a royal visit in April that the election will be at the normal time but let’s wait and see.

So first of all, there is no protocol of 8 months between a Royal visit and an election.  That’s just pulled out of thin air.   But hes picked 8 months, so late March/April plus eight puts us in December.

And having elections in December is not normal.

If Cunliffe doesn’t stop making stuff up along the way, we’re in for a fun ride.

Perhaps Matt McCarten should do all of Cunliffe’s media appearances as well.  The man is truly awful.


Compare and contrast

People ask me if I would ever consider running for parliament.

What do you think?


Read more »

Comment of the Day

It is always fun to look at a political situation and swap party names and alegiances, and then see if the reaction to it would be the same.

One of our readers, Goldie, did that regarding the Internet Party debacle

whos_buying_this_election_greeting_card-ref3d14f26594405eb8915e035dc6f360_xvuak_8byvr_324Imagine that there was a very dodgy foreign businessman millionaire. He publicly disagreed with the Labour Party, and was going to spend an enormous sum of money to make sure that Labour did not win the next election.

To achieve his aims, he was buying a number of well known right wing personalities to advise him and support his venture.

This included advice to bribe an electorate that turned out to be illegal.   Read more »

Business booming, Labour loss looming

I don’t have the capacity to feel pity for David Cunliffe, but he has to be wondering what he has to do to catch a break.  He finally gets his hands on the Prize as leader of the Losers Party, and just about all the indicators continue to go south on him.   Michael Fox explains

Financial experts are united – next year could be a golden one for the New Zealand economy with all signs pointing to a prosperous 2014.

Commodity prices are booming, businesses are at their most confident in 20 years, the economy is among the world’s fastest growing, jobs and wages are predicted to rise and that confidence is filtering through to consumers who are starting to open their wallets.

New Zealand’s GDP growth was at its highest in four years in the last quarter at 3.5 per cent on the previous year – higher than Australia (2.3 per cent), the US (1.8), Britain (1.5) and Japan at 2.4 per cent.

Compared with Australia, once our largest trading partner but recently overtaken by China and whose economic growth outside the mining sector has relatively flatlined, our positive outlook is more stark.

Perhaps Cunliffe and Norman should move to Australia where their brand of “the sky is falling, we can spend our way out of it” policies will be more receptive.   Read more »

Voter fury stops people voting

While the left-wing thinks that 800,000 voters didn’t vote for them and conjure up all sorts of conspiracy theories about why it is that people don’t vote, some people have actually conducted some research and found out the major reason people don’t vote is fury with politicians.

I guess they are working under the old anarchist proverb “Don’t vote it just encourages them.”

Nearly half of Britons say they are angry with politics and politicians, according to a Guardian/ICM poll analysing the disconnect between British people and their democracy.

The research, which explores the reasons behind the precipitous drop in voter turnout – particularly among under-30s – finds that it is anger with the political class and broken promises made by high-profile figures that most rile voters, rather than boredom with Westminster.

Asked for the single word best describing “how or what you instinctively feel” about politics and politicians in general, 47% of respondents answered “angry”, against 25% who said they were chiefly “bored”.   Read more »