Want to know who will win an election? Ask a bookie

We have iPredict but it isn’t really betting in the true sense…In the UK however they do have bookies and they are allowed to bet on elections.

It turns out that betting is a more accurate predictor of an election process than polling.

[W]here should we be looking for our best estimate of what is actually going to happen, to the polls or to the markets? It’s a question that we have been considering in the UK for nearly 30 years.

We can trace the question to July 4 1985, the day that the political betting markets finally came of age in this country. A by-election was taking place in a semi-rural corner of Wales, with Labour and Liberals the key contenders. Ladbrokes made the Liberals odds-on favourite. But on the very morning of the election a poll by Mori gave Labour a commanding 18 percentage point lead. Ladbrokes kept the Liberal candidate as the solid odds-on favourite. And who won? The Liberal — and anyone who ignored the pollster and followed the money.    Read more »

Tax on stupid people tops $2billion p.a.

The stupidity tax that is applied to gambling has reached $2 billion per annum.

I thank the fools for voluntarily contributing to society…we need more taxes like this one.

More than $2 billion is thought to be lost to gambling annually in New Zealand, but the number engaged in regular gambling has dropped off.

In 2012, researchers from AUT University and the National Research Bureau conducted the largest gambling survey since 1999, with 6251 adults taking part. The results have just been made public.

“The most notable finding was a substantial drop in the number of people who gamble weekly or more.   Read more »

So after years of whinging about gambling what does a Labour leader hopeful do?

Grant Robertson has banged on about gambling for ages, attacking constantly the Sky City convention centre deal.

He is even in Hansard railing about gambling and gambling harm.

What is his response to Major Campbell Roberts, from the Salvation Army, who said that the proposed legislation cancels out any benefits, that the harm minimisation measures allowed for in the legislation are a joke, that they are neither robust nor effective, and that they do not represent any significant improvement on the current ineffective practices of Skycity Casino, which are already failing to reduce gambling harm? What is his response to Campbell Roberts’ comments?

Yet around rolls the Melbourne Cup and what is Grant Robertson doing?

That’s right being a hypocrite and flaunting his gambling stubs from the TAB.

10610870_598436246855277_8427676331423965494_n Read more »

Stupid tax does a great job

Casinos, TAB, pokies, lotto.   People have the choice to ignore them.  Yet there is a huge industry that fleeces the stupid from their hard earned benefits.

A new daily Lotto game that offers tickets for $1 has been called unnecessary by anti-gambling campaigners.

Lotto New Zealand calls Play 3 “a fun, new game that’s unique from our other games”, but the Problem Gambling Foundation and budgeting services say it is not needed and increases the risk of harm.

Lotto already has three daily games, plus its big draw nights on Saturday and Wednesday.

The new game, which has a top prize of $500, involves picking a 3-digit number and matching it – either exactly, out of order or with two digits the same.

Players pay $1 per ticket, with the number drawn at 6pm each day. The first draw took place last night. There is no age limit, in common with all other Lotto games except its Instant Kiwi scratchcard.

In its briefing to incoming Internal Affairs Minister Peter Dunne in February, Lotto said it estimated Play 3 would increase revenue – which is close to $1 billion a year – by 1.1 per cent. Read more »


Fancy a bet on the election?

A reader, RGW sends us his thoughts:


Sportingbet Australia odds

Right thinkers despair at the prospect of the left mess winning.

Fearing I might become suicidal if that happened I got to thinking what I might do to minimise having to top myself. I found the answer in Australia!

I call it my “Emotional Election Hedge.”

I discovered that Sportingbet Australia are offering (or were at the time I placed my bet) $7.00 on a Labour-led Government. National: $1.09, and Other: $50.

So I asked the holder of the Visa what value she would put on my not topping myself in the early hours of September 21 (or later if it’s really close). She determined that would be worth $300. At  least it was $300 Australian.

Armed with this approval I scampered off and bet the $300.    Read more »

New Zealanders are very good at gambling. Wanna bet?


Why is gambling so much part of our psyche?


Jones continues his jihad against Lotto, still conflicted, Cunliffe says nothing

Shane Jones continues his conflicted jihad against Lotto this morning, though he is veiling it as an attack on Countdown.

He is seriously conflicted out in this matter though with his missus working for SkyCity and SkyCity providing his week day accommodation.

If a glass of milk and a photo opportunity was grounds for resignation because one’s spouse is a director of a company then how much more inappropriate is it for someone to be lobbying against a director competitor of the employer of your spouse?

Labour MP Shane Jones is calling for an end to big Lotto jackpots after attacking supermarket giant Countdown for selling tickets at the checkout counter.

Jones said selling Lotto tickets at the checkout was like putting a poker machine at every counter but worse, because people could pay for the tickets with their credit cards.

“What do you buy? Weetbix, orange or a big fat Wednesday?” he asked.

He believed there should be an immediate review of the Gambling Act that should include a look at the size of the Lotto jackpot, because a $30 million or $40m jackpot was too high.   Read more »

Has Shane Jones declared his conflict of interest?

Shane Jones has launched another attack on Countdown, this time over their desire to sell Lotto tickets at the checkout rather than at a separate counter.

Labour MP Shane Jones has again taken aim at Countdown, raising concerns about lotto sales at the supermarket’s checkouts.

Lotto tickets are being sold despite new evidence that people spend less on food when there is a big jackpot.

You can now buy lotto at the checkouts in 100 Countdown supermarkets around the country. That makes buying a ticket more convenient, but Mr Jones says that is the problem.

“With Countdown putting a one-armed bandit at every Countdown checkout counter, you’re bringing gambling into the community,” says Mr Jones.

I wonder though if Shane Jones was wise to mount such an attack considering his own conflict of interest.  Read more »

Problem Gambling Foundation warned several times about politicking

The over the top reaction to their loss of funding is the perfect demonstration of why the Problem Gambling Foundation should lose its funding. They ahve proved themselves to be a bunch of vicious lefty thugs thinking they can bully sympathy out of people.

I see the Asian unit can continue which I believe is a Richard Northey creation which should allow him keep his snout firmly in the trough.

The Ministry of Health had several meetings with the Problem Gambling Foundation to address concerns about political lobbying after complaints by poker machine trusts about outspoken attacks on the sector, the Sunday Star-Times has been told.

A senior industry source said pokie trusts had lodged several complaints with the ministry about PGF’s behaviour, resulting in the foundation’s chief executive, Graeme Ramsey, being called to “please explain” meetings.  Read more »

Time for a quango hunt

It should be of little surprise that an organisation that is government funded should find themselves de-funded for involving themselves in politics instead of sticking to their mandate. Instead they are redirecting the funding into a more effective organisation.

The Herald reports on the predicament of the Problem Gambling Foundation. We already know that Labour’s claims of political retribution have fallen flat.

Government funding for the Problem Gambling Foundation has been scrapped, the organisation confirmed today amid rumours the service would be shut-down because it opposes National’s SkyCity convention centre deal.

The foundation issued a statement saying it had been informed by the Ministry of Health that from June 30 it would no longer be contracted for the bulk of its current services.

“While the ministry describes PGF as a valued provider of quality services it has told PGF it has a superior offer for the clinical and public health services PGF provides,” the foundation said.   Read more »