We have iPredict but it isn’t really betting in the true sense…In the UK however they do have bookies and they are allowed to bet on elections.
It turns out that betting is a more accurate predictor of an election process than polling.
[W]here should we be looking for our best estimate of what is actually going to happen, to the polls or to the markets? It’s a question that we have been considering in the UK for nearly 30 years.
We can trace the question to July 4 1985, the day that the political betting markets finally came of age in this country. A by-election was taking place in a semi-rural corner of Wales, with Labour and Liberals the key contenders. Ladbrokes made the Liberals odds-on favourite. But on the very morning of the election a poll by Mori gave Labour a commanding 18 percentage point lead. Ladbrokes kept the Liberal candidate as the solid odds-on favourite. And who won? The Liberal — and anyone who ignored the pollster and followed the money. Read more »