Global Warming

Where did that global warming go to?

RSS satellite dataset

RSS satellite dataset

Global warming has failed to materialise in line with the flawed models.

The scientists explain this as a “pause”.

But the pause keeps on extending. Now it is out to 19 years at the surface and 16-26 years in the troposphere according to a new paper.

The IPCC has drawn attention to an apparent leveling-off of globally-averaged temperatures over the past 15 years or so. Measuring the duration of the hiatus has implications for determining if the underlying trend has changed, and for evaluating climate models. Here, I propose a method for estimating the duration of the hiatus that is robust to unknown forms of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) in the temperature series and to cherry-picking of endpoints.

For the specific case of global average temperatures I also add the requirement of spatial consistency between hemispheres. The method makes use of the Vogelsang-Franses (2005) HAC-robust trend variance estimator which is valid as long as the underlying series is trend stationary, which is the case for the data used herein. Application of the method shows that there is now a trendless interval of 19 years duration at the end of the HadCRUT4 surface temperature series, and of 16 – 26 years in the lower troposphere. Use of a simple AR1 trend model suggests a shorter hiatus of 14 – 20 years but is likely unreliable.

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How’s that global warming and ice free Arctic going?

We were told by “scientists” that by 2012 the Arctic Ocean would be ice free due to global warming.

So now we are two years past that prediction how is it actually going?

It is nearing the end of the northern hemisphere summer, and Arctic sea ice isn’t anywhere near melting clean away as the likes of Al Gore once claimed.

ssmi1_ice_area_small Read more »

A reader emails about Climate Change

I received this polite email about climate change yesterday.

Hi Cameron,

I have been a regular reader of your blog for a number of years, and while your attitude can be at times combative, I appreciate the straight-up, “no bullshit” approach you take to both your content and your readers, and your emphasis on facts over rhetoric is refreshing, particularly in an environment where many of your peers in the information industry cannot be relied on to get things right. Unfortunately, there’s one subject on which I feel you have failed to meet your own high standards. That subject is climate change.

I have no doubt that your position on climate change was based on what you believed to be legitimate information at the time you formed your current views, but I do think that it’s an area you have neglected to look at again after making up your mind, and continuing to promote this position without ensuring that it can be reconciled with the actual state of the planet is doing both yourself and your readers a disservice. Every time you publish a post along the lines of “colder than average / coldest event ever, therefore global warming is a con”, you’re ignoring the fact that climate change / global warming on a planetary scale doesn’t mean that every part of the planet is warmer 100% of the time, nor that the warming of Earth’s climate as a whole can actually cause cooling in some areas. You’re also ignoring a very large body of evidence that the planet is in fact warming considerably.

I would like to respectfully ask that you take another look at this issue, openly, and from a neutral perspective. If you still feel that the evidence supports your position after genuinely researching the topic, I will be very much surprised.

I am fully aware you are more than capable of doing your own research, and finding your own sources which you believe to be trustworthy. Noting how busy you are though, I would like to point you in the direction of one resource I feel you may find useful if you’re pressed for research time – Ramez Naam’s book “The Infinite Resource – The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet” (I am happy to purchase an ebook copy for you if that would be useful). If you do nothing else, please at least read chapter five of this book – it’ll point out more than a few holes in your current position. All conclusions drawn or facts provided are fully cited, with an extensive bibliography of sources should you wish to follow up further. I should also point out that the book’s style alternates positive / negative perspectives, so if you do not read any part of the book other than chapter five, you’re only seeing a part of what the author’s trying to get across.

I have every faith that you will act with integrity and have the courage to change your currently held beliefs on climate change once you are in possession of the relevant facts – I only ask that you are open enough to take another look.

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New study shows believers in global warming use more energy than others

 

Al Gore's California house

Al Gore’s California house

As is becoming usual these days a new study shows up the sanctimony and hypocrisy of those who say they care very much about climate change.

People who claim to worry about climate change use more electricity than those who do not, a Government study has found.

Those who say they are concerned about the prospect of climate change consume more energy than those who say it is “too far into the future to worry about,” the study commissioned by the Department for Energy and Climate Change found.

That is in part due to age, as people over 65 are more frugal with electricity but much less concerned about global warming.

However, even when pensioners are discounted, there is only a “weak trend” to show that people who profess to care about climate change do much to cut their energy use.

The findings were based on the Household Electricity Survey, which closely monitored the electricity use and views of 250 families over a year. The report, by experts from Loughborough University and Cambridge Architectural Research, was commissioned and published by DECC.  Read more »

Global Warming just continues to take its toll

Grass Lawn 06 frost ice

Global warming hasn’t been happening, so they’ve had to call it Climate Change.  Because climates changes all the time, and that way there is no need to argue.

But that doesn’t stop the media from reporting global warming related news stories.

Brisbane has hit its coldest temperatures in more than 100 years – with temperatures plummeting across Queensland.

The Australian city woke up to a brisk 2.6 degrees today, the lowest since July 1911. Read more »

The words “boy” and “wolf” come to mind

Karl du Fresne discusses the world’s calamities that never were and the propensity of dissenters to be silenced when their truths become uncomfortable.

FOR ALMOST as long as I can remember, experts have been warning us to brace ourselves for catastrophe.

For decades it was the Cold War and the threat of nuclear obliteration that threatened us. In the 1970s we shuddered at the prospect of a nuclear winter, in which soot and smoke from nuclear warfare would condemn the planet to decades of frigid semi-darkness.

And who can forget the alarm generated by predictions that acid rain would denude vast areas of forest, kill marine life and even cause buildings to collapse?

Other recurring doomsday predictions revolved around over-population and famine. As it turns out, the world now has more obese people than malnourished – a fact that has given the experts something new to harangue us about. 

There have been other scares, too, including Aids and the Millennium Bug. It was seriously predicted that the latter would create universal chaos the moment the clocks ticked past December 31, 1999.

We’re still waiting for the grotesque mutations foreseen by opponents of genetic modification. And then there was peak oil, though the dismalists seem to have gone quiet on that too.

There are always experts loudly predicting the worst. But none of the above prophecies came to pass, either because they were scientifically unsound or greatly exaggerated to start with, or because human ingenuity and good sense intervened.

Even when terrible things have happened – such as Chernobyl and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill – the eventual outcome has almost invariably been less apocalyptic than the prophets of doom foresaw.   

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Where’s the warming? Politics not science driving climate change hysteria

The Daily Mail looks at what is driving the climate change debate, and it isn’t science:

For years, computer simulations have predicted that sea ice should be disappearing from the Poles.

Now, with the news that Antarctic sea-ice levels have hit new highs, comes yet another mishap to tarnish the credibility of climate science.

Climatologists base their doom-laden predictions of the Earth’s climate on computer simulations.

But these have long been the subject of ridicule because of their stunning failure to predict the pause in warming – nearly 18 years long on some measures – since the turn of the last century.

Not a single simulation has come close to mapping real life evidence…the science is wonky, at least in the models that predicted doom and destruction.

It’s the same with sea ice. We hear a great deal about the decline in Arctic sea ice, in line with or even ahead of predictions.

But why are environmentalists and scientists so much less  keen to discuss the long-term increase in the southern hemisphere?

In fact, across the globe, there are about one million square kilometres more sea ice than 35 years ago, which is when satellite measurements began.

It’s fair to say that this has been something of an embarrassment for climate modellers. But it doesn’t stop there.

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Global Warming now causing more ice?

First we heard that global warming was melting glaciers, now it is claimed that global warming is causing MORE ice.

Gee they are getting desperate, this is one of the better claims

Earlier this year, global warming was blamed for the ‘irreversible retreat’ of west Antarctic glaciers.

But now scientists claim that warming of the planet is in fact behind a paradoxical growth in South Pole sea ice.

The comments come as Antarctica’s sea ice set a record this week, reaching 815,448 square miles (1,312,000 square km) of ice above its normal range.

Scientists believe the shift is caused by water melting from beneath the Antarctic ice shelves and re-freezing back on the surface.

‘The primary reason for this is the nature of the circulation of the Southern Ocean — water heated in high southern latitudes is carried equatorward, to be replaced by colder waters upwelling from below, which inhibits ice loss,’ Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, told Harold Ambler at Talking About the Weather.

However, as reported in a separate blog post by Mr Ambler, Nasa scientist Walt Meier said that growing Antarctic sea ice coverage is less significant a measure than declining Arctic sea ice coverage when assessing climate change.  

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Climate change madness hits Cactus Kate in the slats

I honestly don’t know why we entertain these idiots and give them space in our media, but one American says climate change may kill off the Bluff Oysters and suddenly it’s ‘a thing’.

Better savour those oysters or green-lipped mussels while you can, because New Zealand shellfish could be obliterated by greenhouse gases.

An American expert told a University of Otago conference that a “massive shellfish extinction event” could be on the cards.

Todd Capson will speak with government officials and scientists today on what must be done to prevent the rapid disappearance of seafood lovers’ favourite fare .

“It’s not always a gradual change. If you exceed a certain threshold, things die.”

The issue arose because CO 2 in the ocean transformed into an acid, Capson told the delegates at the Foreign Policy School seminar during the weekend.

Rising levels of the gas from carbon fuels meant more of this acid – “the same thing that makes Coca-Cola fizzy” – dissolved the substance oysters and other shellfish needed to make their shells.

Without enough calcium carbonate in the seas to make a fully developed shell in their first days of life, the baby creatures died.

Coral, which builds its reefs using the same material, is also under threat from rising levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere.

Capson said Americans have already experienced the devastation “ocean acidification” could bring.

Yes.  Through pollution.  Not “climate change”.

Could.  Could.  Could.  Could.  Could.  Could.  May, might, maybe.
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Global Warming hasn’t happened, new data shows US been cooling since 1930s

The frauds are starting to be revealed and one of the biggest frauds in the history of mankind hasn’t been a committed by corporate bankers, rather by socialists and their useful idiots in the universities and scientific community.

Global Warming is dead, the evidence is building that is showing the skeptics were right all along.

Christopher Booker writes at The Telegraph:

When future generations try to understand how the world got carried away around the end of the 20th century by the panic over global warming, few things will amaze them more than the part played in stoking up the scare by the fiddling of official temperature data. There was already much evidence of this seven years ago, when I was writing my history of the scare, The Real Global Warming Disaster. But now another damning example has been uncovered by Steven Goddard’s US blog Real Science, showing how shamelessly manipulated has been one of the world’s most influential climate records, the graph of US surface temperature records published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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