Grant Robertson

Some interesting things have come to my attention.

Of course last week there was a nice opinion piece by David Cunliffe in the Herald.

Then this weekend he delivered a big key note speech where Chris Trotter and other commentators were specifically invited and is now being seeded nicely across the left wing blogs.

Then there are the moves by Moana Mackey who is busy trotting around visiting MPs. Of course Moana was supported in her list ranking by none other than Jordan Carter and Alistair Cameron, Shearer’s new chief of staff. I hope she can count better than the last time she ran the numbers.

Jordan Carter has burst forth on his blog again, in support of David Cunliffe’s nicely timed keynote speech.

Someone pointed out to me too that I may have been a bit wrong about Alistair Cameron’s loyalties…that they quite possibly weren’t with Grant Robertson, given his close professional and personal relationship with former president Mike Williams.

Who then pops up this morning commenting in the media today about how secure Shearer is….anyone fancy a Tui.

He told 3 News Firstline this morning, that Mr Shearer has the support of the vast majority of Labour MPs.

“I rang around some caucus members yesterday… and there’s no mood for change at the moment, I can tell you that.”

Mr Williams says if Labour does decide to change leaders, again, it must do it by the end of the year – two years out from the next general election.

As they say the Ducks are lining up…the wonder is if one particular Duck is lining up on the right side or the wrong side.

With Shearer off being entertained by corporate lobbyists on the weekend instead of shoring up his support, things are looking dodgy for him to continue much longer.

ᔥ the tipline

As speculation swirls about the ‘unfortunate experiment’ with David Shearer as Labour Leader I did a quick search through my archives to compare Leadership rumbling during the Goff years with what’s happening now.

There are distinct similarities:

Start a whispering campaign on the blogs – check.

Blame poor poll ratings on the fact that people aren’t paying attention – check.

Promise to reconnect with voters by getting out more – check.

Assure the media there are no factions in the party – check.

Blame your political opponents for the leadership speculation – check.

Arrange a stage managed show of support – expect that on Tuesday.

Here’s a video retrospective of Goff’s leadership woes:

Interestingly – you’ll note at the end of this montage there’s a prediction from an anonymous MP that Grant Robertson is positioning himself to come to the rescue if Shearer fails.

That MPs forecast is now looking very accurate.

So we know that Robertson doesn’t appear to fit the “Mold” of a loyal deputy.  What does a loyal deputy actually look like?

A loyal deputy has his/her Leader’s back.

A local deputy ensures s/he has networks through caucus, media and the party membership so that anything amiss is reported back to ensure “no surprises”

A loyal deputy uses those same networks to run, if necessary, counter intelligence and shop stories and rumour about those who may become a problem to the leadership.  This ensures the Leader’s prints are nowhere to be found.

A loyal deputy is a master in internal political management, plugs leaks where necessary and where there are weak whips takes on the discipline in the Party.

Additionally,

• A loyal deputy leader goes down with the ship if necessary. (Roger Sowry and  Don McKinnon both went down with the ship)
• A loyal deputy is prepared to sacrifice themselves to keep the existing leadership in place (David Caygill and Gerry Brownlee)
• A loyal deputy can bridge divides in the Party (Michael Cullen did this successfully, after he realised he would never be Leader, as has Bill English once he too realised he was a tits leader)
• A loyal deputy is prepared to take on transitional roles in a time of change (Michael Cullen and Wyatt Creech both did this for the good of their Party)
• A loyal deputy even runs distractions if necessary (Tim Groser isn’t a deputy but has shown great promise given his call for compulsory Te Reo on The Nation this morning)

Does Grant Robertson exhibit even remotely any of those characteristics?

Or does he exhibit the characteristics of those that undermine the leadership, rally their own people, step away from the Leader’s problems and stealing the limelight instead of allowing the Leader to step from the shadows into the spotlight himself?

There is talk that Grant Robertson is loyal deputy…even David Shearer is indignant about the rumours that his Deputy is about to roll him:

He appeared most irritated at suggestions [on The Standard] that Mr Cameron had been installed in advance of a leadership takeover by Mr Robertson.

“I speak to Grant three or four times a day on the phone. We’re in and out of each other’s offices when we are in Parliament together, all day.”

I’m not so sure that he should take comfort in that.

If David Shearer took a good  look at New Zealand political history he would have cold shivers running up his spine.

Rob Muldoon was Jack Marshall’s deputy, he knifed him on 4 July 1974.

David Lange was Bill Rowling’s deputy, he knifed him on 3 February 1982.

Jim McLay was Muldoon’s deputy, he knifed him in 1984, after National lost the 1984 schnapps election.

Jim Bolger was Jim McLay’s deputy, he knifed him in 1986.

Geoffry Palmer was David Lange’s deputy, and he took over in September 1989 as Lange gave up.

Helen Clark was Mike Moore’s deputy, she knifed him on 1 December 1993.

Bill English was Jenny Shipley’s deputy, he knifed her in October 2001.

Based on recent political history David Shearer has much to fear from Grant Robertson, who was raised politically under the tutelage of Helen Clark, one of the plotting deputies who rolled their leader.

Based on New Zealand political history it really the role of the deputy to roll the leader.

The fact that his deputy (and their people) are talking to you means nothing.  The interesting thing will be when the House goes back.  The numbers of MPs popping in and out of each others office late at night.  The corridor action that is going on.

If I was Shearer I’d ensure my programme keeps me in Wellington next week.

One weird thing about David Shearer is his distinct lack of loyalists.  See, when the in-Parliament chattering behind closed doors occurs he needs to have his loyalists countering.

Well, who counters for Shearer? It isn’t Robertson….and Trevor Mallard is running his jihad against John Banks, not watching Shearer’s back.

Transtasman has the following to say about Labour:

The Labour caucus must be a peaceful place to be these days for those who don’t seem to be doing much. A handful of MPs are showing some spirit, among them Jacinda Ardern, Sue Moroney, David Cunliffe, David Parker, Chris Hipkins, Phil Goff and Clare Curran. There’s hardly a peep from Nanaia Mahuta since she was given the education portfolio in a peace-making move after the leadership contest, Shane Jones is an invisible man, Parekura Horomia has lapsed into silence, Phil Twyford wakes up sometimes, Maryan Street is taking her health portfolio seriously but isn’t making much of an impact, not much would be heard from Andrew Little if Judith Collins wasn’t suing him for defamation and Rajen Prasad maintains a profile which isn’t on the radar. Deputy leader Grant Robertson, a very sharp operator, has to leave most of what he would like to say to David Shearer. When Robertson is front man because Shearer isn’t around he’s way better at putting Labour’s case and it’s being noticed. Shearer is at the dangerous point where, if he doesn’t start to shape up, rumours are going to start he’s going to ship out.

Yikes!

ᔥ The Gay Blade at GayNZ

A fair few of my commenters are all aghast at the luvvies takeover of Labour, they see it all as some conspiracy. Fortunately I am not so jaded in my views of political machinations. Things are what they are. When involved in politics you surround yourself with people you can trust, irrespective of their sexuality. The Gay Blade properly describes what is happening with Grant Robertson making sure the staff in the Leader’s Office will be loyal when he takes over:

It’s true – there are gay networks. Just as there are networks of lawyers, networks of Grammar and Kings’ Old Boys and networks of farmers. Humans have a tendency to cluster together with people who share similar views and interests. It’s actually a good idea, it means a group can organise and get its voice heard, which is kind of what politics and democracy is about.

I say good luck to Alastair Cameron. He’ll need it. Even though I’m a natural Labourite, David Shearer hasn’t impressed me yet,  and I can’t see him leading the party to victory. Maybe the Velvet Mafia will be able to change all that though. Heh heh heh (Ooops did I say that out loud?)

Alistair Cameron will need truck loads of luck and it isn;t because he is gay, that matters not a bit, what matters is his political abilities and there i think he will be found wanting. the fact that I was able to find out what was happening in Labour’s ranks before the gallery says a lot.

Since the public airing of Grant Robertson’s take-over of David Shearer’s office, the tip-line has been clogged with pissed off readers hostile to Robertson’s destabilising of the current leadership.

I’m guessing that most of it is coming from the Auckland factions of Labour that are still dirty that their man, David Cunliffe, didn’t get the nod in the last leadership battle, but nevertheless where there is smoke, there is usually fire. In this case there appears to be three fires burning in a simmering Labour civil war.

Apparently since the beginning of April, Grant Robertson has begun every speech to Labour Party groups with “I am not interested in the Labour Party leadership.”

Even first year Waikato pols students at know that the best way to fuel a story in politics is to deny something when not even asked to comment.

So here is some advice for Grant Robertson: If you want to help your party, stop the rumours about leadership and arrest your party’s continuing slide in the polls, maybe you should begin your speeches praising the current Labour Party leader rather than whining on about yourself.

By all accounts though it appears the quiet internecine bickering is about to become very, very public.

News is everywhere that David Shearer has officially selected Alistair Cameron as his new Chief of Staff.  Or has he?

From where I sit it looks very much as though Grant Robertson has selected HIS new Chief of Staff.

Let’s have a look at a few aspects of Alistair and you decide if he is ‘somewhat’ aligned to Robertson:

1. Worked with Robertson in Beehive days
2. Was the architect of Teletubby Hobbs’ train wreck (Oooh, can’t wait for that with Shearer)
3. Is an active member of the rainbow faction
4. Is great personal friends with Robertson and his partner, Alf.

Oh yes, he sounds like a Chief of Staff who will have the best interests of Labour’s Leader at heart. Or should that be the Deputy Leader?

Let’s then look at his suitability for the role.

Positives:

• Grant’s mate

Negatives:

• a lawyer specialising in ETS and climate change
• Questionable political management skills as was part of Hobbs trainwreck
• Close friend of Robertson so will undermine Shearer’s leadership
• No mongrel
• Chair of AIDS Foundation
• Never worked in Opposition

It should be noted that in recent political history that a change of Chief of Staff has always preceded a coup.

Bill English had Sue Foley and then briefly Glenda Hughes before Richard Long came in. Shortly there after Don Brash knifed Bill English.

Richard Long remained as Chief of Staff until Wayne Eagleson replaced him and then John Key knifed Don Brash.

So there is certainly a political precedent for a change of Chief of Staff leading shortly thereafter to a coup. The interesting part therefore is upon, that is the the coup…which is certainly shaping up to be a 3 way battle between Shearer, Robertson and Cunliffe.

Time to invest in popcorn futures.

Labour and the leftwing lap-bloggers thought there was a civil war on inside National. There wasn’t because if there was I’d have been right in the middle of it spilling blood and guts all over the place.

However it is becoming clearer and clearer that there is a factional war going on inside Labour.

They are leaking like a sieve with reports of arguments, dummy spitting, and factional number counting.

Grant Robertson has been in charge of the hiring for the Leader’s Office and has largely finished his job in filling the office with loyal adherents to himself. He was even heard to boast to staffers the day after he was made Deputy Leader that everything was brilliant…”Shearer is going to stuff it up…and I will be the next leader and Prime Minister”.

The last piece of the puzzle appears to be falling into place with Stuart Nash’s expected replacement to be Alistair Cameron, a Robertson loyalist.

That has got open discussion happening now on Labour supporting blogs that Shearer’s time is up. The word from various Labour spies is they have taken to calling the Shearer leadership “The Unfortunate Experiment“. This is a particularly nasty epitet to give David Shearer but sadly that is modern Labour…nasty to the core. David Shearer unfortunately didn’t fit that mold.

Veteran Labour party watcher and somewhat of a fan-boi, Vernon Small has noticed:

Consensus, he said, was his first instinct.

It is a style Mr Shearer is making his brand; a reasonable man talking in a measured tone that rejects the politics of charisma.

To the political media present – and in a warning to Labour, only three reporters made the short hop from Wellington – it was about as dull as a leader’s speech can get.

With the Government on the ropes over issues from the pokies deal with SkyCity to Crafar farm sales and asset sales, the soft-shoe approach is not without its critics.

There is no crisis yet, but there has been some internal arm-wrestling.

Small repeats the gossip fo the nasties suggesting that Nash and Fran Mold clashed over strategy…this adds to the leaking of his leaving suggesting that all is not well as the factions start eyeing each other up across the political corpse of David Shearer.

It is notable too that the lap-bloggers at The Standard are now openly talking of the ending of “The Unfortunate Experiment“:

My suspicion is that within the very near future, maybe after another flat poll, someone close to Shearer, perhaps Trevor, will have a hard conversation with him that goes something like “you’ve done your best mate but it’s just not worked” and I think that Shearer will step down because he’s the kind of guy that would step down if he believed it was the best thing to do.

This is insider code for if you don;t go soon Shearer, Trev will be sent to plunge the knife in.

It is clear that the strategy from Mallard and others was to push Shearer forward on silly issues so that he was able to be easily blamed when the polls failed to turn.Meanwhile to hide the internal ructions in labour Trevor Mallard manufactured an alleged crisis within national that simply didn’t exist which a compliant media dutifully ran with. It is telling that the ones pushing the story the hardest are also the one seen int he company of Trevor Mallard more often than not.

Unfortunately the end of Shearer’s time as leader is no longer an ‘if’ question, rather it has become a ‘when’ question. I’d suggest it will be fore Labour Weekend now.