Helen Clark

Pray…it’s the only thing he’s got…and hope

David Cunliffe is being told to pray…it’s the only hope he’s got.

David Cunliffe just can’t catch a break. Even his oldest childhood friend doesn’t fancy his chances in September’s general election.

”The local candidate [Steve Gibson] for the Labour party is a complete and utter idiot,” Pleasant Point sheep farmer Andrew Steven tells the Labour leader. ”And I had to throw him out of the house and demand the cheque back … I’d like to support David but I can’t support the local candidate,” he says.

Pray, is Reverend Sue Dickson’s advice. Cunliffe says he does – daily. ”You are doing the right thing … having your faith connection when everything seems to be kind of lost,” she counsels.

Naturally Cunliffe isn’t ready to accept that’s he lost – but Dickson has a point.

With just two months before voters go to the ballot box, the latest brace of polls have Labour languishing in the mid-20s. Personal support for Cunliffe has dipped below 10 per cent. Party disloyalty once again reared its head at the weekend, with an insider sniping to media about the leader’s week-long skiing holiday.

In fact, the family break was just three days – and on Friday Cunliffe was in the rural South Canterbury town where he spent his teenage years.

It was part of a media drive to boost Cunliffe’s public profile – and an opportunity to catch up with those he grew up with.

”There are huge numbers of people who are only just waking up now to the fact that we’ve got an election this year. They are saying who is this guy, we need to get to know him … and I’m going to let people in,” Cunliffe explains.

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Misleading again, why can’t Cunliffe just tell the truth?

David Cunliife was taking questions yesterday at Stuff.

It was pretty hostile and the rest was filled with weasel words.

Like his addressing of the issue regarding Kiwis in Australia.

cunliffe-ama Read more »

Could convergence become an issue

Labour continues to be mired in the 20s, the Greens are slowly climbing towards the 20s…hoovering up the disaffected hard left of Labour as The Cunliffe continues to disappoint.

Could convergence become an issue, where the Greens supplant Labour as the largest opposition party.

Matthew Hooton discussed that in his column at the NBR:

Don’t rule out convergence.

Labour’s disastrous decision to replace David Shearer with David Cunliffe and spend nearly a year swinging to the far left has inevitably crashed its poll numbers.

The recent ploy to swing back to the centreappears to have come too late. The days are long gone when Mr Shearer had Labour polling around the mid-30s and, with the Greens in the low teens, well on track to become prime minister. In both the major polls released this week, Roy Morgan and Fairfax-Ipsos, Mr Cunliffe’s Labour was languishing under 25%.

Both polls were taken mainly after Mr Cunliffe’s apology for being a man, but also after his major education announcements. Despite Labour strategists privately claiming their internal polling responded favourably, the public polls suggest that the promises of cheap laptops and slightly smaller classes have failed to capture the imagination of middle-class parents.

Worse for Labour, while there may be good evidence the polls tend to overestimate National’s support by around 5% at the expense of smaller parties, the trend line for Labour in at least the last two elections has almost exactly predicted its actual party vote.

In 2011, Phil Goff led Labour to its worst result since 1925. If Mr Cunliffe’s tilt to the centre continues to fail, he risks taking New Zealand’s oldest political party below the 24% it won in the first two elections following the World War I.

Poll numbers also have an element of self-fulfilling prophecy. People don’t like voting for losers. As the election nears, Labour risks losing a crucial few further points to the Greens, Internet-Mana and NZ First.

Bill English currently wears the electoral dunce cap in the New Zealand parliament, having led National to its 21% debacle in 2002. The finance minister may dare to hope he might finally get to pass it on to Mr Cunliffe after September 20.

For all this, the risk of a change of government remains high.   Read more »

Are right wing women sexier?

Cactus Kate posted the link to this on Facebook, where a liberal-lefty-pro-feminist man  (there is some debate over whether or not he is actually a man) explains why he thinks right wing women are sexier.

Not long ago I was out drinking with a group of friends and we started playing the If-You-Had-To game. The idea is to present players with two people they would never want to sleep with — and then make them choose which they’d sleep with. Here are some of the fiendish alternatives I had to face: Imelda Marcos or Wallace Simpson? Ayn Rand or Yoko Ono? Gertrude Stein or Virginia Woolf?

Then one joker said: Theresa May or Jemima Khan? Everyone laughed at this no-contest choice. Everyone except me. How could I tell them the ugly truth: I’d prefer a night of passion with right-wing Theresa over lefty Jemima any day of the week.

But then I belong to that small, deviant group of liberal-lefty-pro-feminist men who find conservative/right-wing women super sexy. In an age when anything goes — at least in terms of sexual pleasure — ours is a lust that dare not speak its name.

I know this because later that evening, I turned to one of the group and confessed my secret longing for the likes of Theresa May, Ann Coulter and Sarah Palin — ideally all at once. I thought my fantasy night of passion would be received with sympathy and understanding. After all, this friend of mine pays a woman in Earls Court to put him on a rack and do things you don’t want to read about. He just looked at me and said: ‘You’re sick!’

Heh..sick for hankering after right wing women?

I can just hear the chorus of left-wing women complaining that, here we go again — judging women in politics by their looks! Well, actually, looks have nothing to do with it. By that criteria, I should be swooning over Jemima instead of drooling over Mrs May. So no, this is not about looks; it’s about the sexiness of a certain mindset and sensibility. What is the appeal of right-wing women to men like me? After all, left-wing men are not supposed to sleep with such women. (We’re meant to find their political convictions too repulsive for that sort of thing.) But politics is rooted in tribalism and dark emotions, as much as reason. To lefty men of my persuasion, right-wing women are the Other; alluring because they are so exotic; exciting because they’re so forbidden.

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Unfortunately Tracy there is nothing to like and even less to trust

Tracy Watkins writes about The Cunliffe and his likeability and trust issues with the electorate.

Labour leadership is a brutal job. If Helen Clark had been made of different stuff she never would have survived Opposition.

Her colleagues tried to roll her just months out from the 1996 election and with good reason.

Labour’s polling under Clark was disastrous. Support for her as preferred prime minister was laughable. Voters thought she was arrogant, aloof and out of touch.

Everything about Clark – her hair, her teeth, her mannish voice – was picked over and dissected as another reason for voters to reject Labour. They were the worst years of Clark’s life. But when a delegation of Clark’s colleagues knocked on her door asking her to resign she stared them down.

There is said to be a desk somewhere around Parliament that still bears the scars from Koro Wetere digging his fingernails into its surface during their faceoff.

The story even had an (almost) happy ending when Clark took Labour close to winning the 1996 election – though perhaps not as close as her supporters believed on the night.

It was largely thanks to Winston Peters and MMP that she was able to keep Labour’s hopes alive before Peters opted to do a deal with National. But it was enough to secure Clark’s leadership. Three years later she led Labour to a sweeping victory and nine years in power.

Is Clark protege David Cunliffe made of the same stuff?

The difference between Helen Clark and David Cunliffe is two-fold. She had balls and a spine, both things that are sadly lacking from The Cunliffe. His self doubt is immense and hasn’t been helped with former leaders knocking on his door at parliament and assuring The Cunliffe that he shouldn’t worry, the polls will come right, chin up.

Labour’s poll ratings have sunk like the Titanic under Cunliffe’s leadership. The latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political pollhas Labour marooned in the mid-20s.

Forget about winning – avoiding an old-fashioned drubbing has become the priority. Only MPs with seats in Labour bastions like Manukau seem safe.

It is not at all far-fetched to imagine Labour sinking to National’s low point in 2002 – 21 per cent.

Under that scenario the damage to Labour could be immense. Unthinkably, even finance spokesman and number two on Labour’s list, David Parker, could be at risk. So too would stars like Jacinda Ardern and Andrew Little.

The only difference between now and 1996 is the election date. When Clark’s colleagues knocked on her door in May 1996 the election was still five months away. Even if Labour wanted to change its leader now, it probably couldn’t. Voters would punish such a visible display of panic and disarray just two months out from an election. Many in Labour’s activist base would revolt.

Cunliffe was their man, their nuclear option against a caucus that did not reflect their world view. A change of leader now would bring to the surface all the things voters reject – panic, a party in disarray and disunity.

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This might rip Helen’s undies

 

Oh no…bad news for Helen Clark, it looks like Angela Merkel is moving on the top job at the UN.

According to a report, Angela Merkel may be considering stepping down from the German chancellorship to pursue the European Council presidency or to helm the United Nations. Both positions will be open in 2017 and Merkel has reportedly signaled that she doesn’t wish to serve out her entire term, which ends in 2017.

From Der Spiegel:

The position as head of the UN in New York will also be open as of January 2017, with Ban Ki-moon’s successor being determined in mid-2016. Just recently, the Luxemburger Wort, Luxembourg’s leading daily paper, wrote extensively about the possibility that Merkel might aspire to the position, though it was quickly denied by the chancellor’s spokesman. The speculation, however, has continued. “It is a European’s turn,” said one senior CDU member at a recent evening event.   Read more »

The Predictable Failure of David Cunliffe, Ctd

Cunliffe - Sh_t

The two most recent polls have shown what all of us known.

David Cunliffe has a poo fingered touch, everything he touches turns to poop.

This was entirely predictable.  Read more »

Silencing dissent, the left doesn’t want you talking

Yesterday Martyn Bradbury tried to initiate a boycott of advertisers. Periodically some on the left do this and try to stop my advertising. It is what they do if you say something that they don’t agree with.

The other thing they do is try to influence editors and managers into not using you.

One blogger and prolific twitter user even lobbied Seven Sharp to not feature me, suggesting left-wing bloggers with barely a tenth of my traffic instead.

They also mount campaigns against journalists in an attempt to silence them too, journalists like Liam Hehir, who for some reason has attracted the ire of the lefty mob in the Manawatu.

He writes about it at the Manawatu Standard:

Why don’t I write more columns about how well Labour is doing at the moment?

Am I getting orders or (as someone once suggested) cheques from the Beehive?

The answer is actually pretty mundane. It happens to be my opinion that the party is in fact not doing well. Indeed, I think it is at something of a low. I would be happy to revise that view in the light of arguments to the contrary, provided they are tightly reasoned or empirical measures of public sentiment. I’m less inclined to be persuaded by the fact that individual partisans don’t like the Government.

The fact that you personally don’t support the prime minister doesn’t mean he isn’t connecting with centrist voters. I learned that the hard way with Helen Clark. But coming to terms with the fact she was a skilled operator didn’t mean I had to agree with her political philosophy.

Does this mean my views aren’t coloured by my own philosophies? Of course not! By virtue of being human, I suffer from cognitive biases which can never be fully eradicated. The same goes for every single person involved in journalism. You should never believe anyone who claims to be wholly dispassionate on matters of public affairs.

But one really curious thing about alleged media bias is that it can depend on the reader as much as it does on the writer.

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More on Police manufacturing of crime stats

Another person has emailed the tipline:

Hi guys, I have just read the message you received from the police member regards Counties police re-coding of burg stats.

In my experience he is understating matters; I witnessed this at Wellington station under the leadership of Marty Grenfeld during
2004/5.

I clearly recall the day his re-coding project team requested all of the youth aid burglary files – they were all gone over and their stats ‘reviewed’ and sometimes being re-coded as Unlawfully on Premises and Theft. In my opinion, a number of re-codings were a dishonest reflection of the facts. They saw it as erring to one side of a 50/50 situation, in favour of more sympathetic statistics.  Read more »

The Cunliffe wants to remain as leader after election, citing Clark precedent

I have been picking up this talk all week, from my Labour sources.

That The Cunliffe believes and is working towards retaining 60% support of caucus to keep the leadership even if Labour suffers a humiliating defeat under his leadership.

This discussed in Claire Trevett’s revealing article in the Herald in The Cunliffe.

[The] Cunliffe says he intends to stay on if Labour is in Opposition after the election when he faces a confidence vote. His supporters agree – Tizard points to Helen Clark staying on after losing in 1996. But some former ministers say Cunliffe’s situation is different. Clark had a strong core of experienced supporters behind her, ready and able to keep caucus in line. Many of Cunliffe’s supporters are relatively new to Parliament or junior other than Nanaia Mahuta and Sue Moroney. Cunliffe names his ‘kitchen cabinet’ – the group he calls on when there is a sticky matter at hand – as David Parker, Grant Robertson and “the venerable and formidable” Annette King. None were Cunliffe supporters in the past.

This is all The CUnliffe is focussing on at the moment…oh that and skiing…as he seeks to shore up his leadership ambitions going forward.

Labour have abandoned any pretense of achieving 40% in this election and even 35%, instead The Cunliffe is now talking about being happy at or around 30%.

That is no position to attempt to pretend you can lead a government, when you can’t even command a third of the population to your way of thinking.

David Cunliffe though is seriously deluded if he thinks that he has the support that Clark had in attempting a two election strategy to gain the premiership. For a start he doesn’t have the leadership skills, and never will, that Clark had. Then there is his inherent laziness and poor planning. The Cunliffe is a classic type of person that resides in any large organisation…a shadow dweller who leaps into prominence when wins are on offer, or to claim a key role in a victory of some sort.    Read more »