Immigration

Statistics and the law of probability

A Mathematician might talk about the law of probability, a gambler might talk about the odds.

If an individual coin toss or the roll of dice is considered to be a random event, then if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted.

-wiki

Dice

If I am an employer and I need  long term employees I will consider the following.Women in their twenties and thirties are more likely to take maternity leave than Men. Not always, but they are statistically more likely. They are also more likely to resign in order to be at home with their children for a period of time than men. With that in mind to protect my business I would ensure that I did not hire mainly women in that age group as it would put my business at risk if a number of them took maternity leave or resigned in the same year. That may not seem fair but given the probabilities I would need to consider the risk. If the employees were easily replaced then I would not need to consider the risk but if they were highly trained individuals and hard to find then I certainly would be careful to get the balance right.

With Islamic immigration to New Zealand we need to consider the risks. Even if only 10% of them are going to become a threat to our way of life that is still one in ten. One in ten sounds a lot more scary than 10% doesn’t it?

If you knew that statistically 1 in 10 people attending a Christmas party were likely to cut your head off would you still attend the party?

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Am I overstating the Muslim immigration threat?

Reader idbkiwi highlighted this in the comments yesterday. ¬†I thought it was worth a wider audience. ¬†In general, I tend to use the UK’s troubles with Islam and Muslim immigration. ¬†Yesterday, I highlighted the case where the UK armed forces are now recommended¬†not¬†to wear their uniforms in public, lest they be a target.

In Sweden, this is even worse.  The Swedish police recently reported on 55 areas within Sweden where the Swedish rule of law no longer exists.

The Swedish police recently released a map of 55 areas where they publicly admit to having surrendered control to the criminal gangs. These areas have long had problems with mailmen, fire trucks and ambulances being attacked when trying to enter, which has led to them routinely requesting police escort. Now it’s the police being attacked outright.

These no-go zones are primarily so-called ‚Äúexclusion areas‚ÄĚ which is the politically correct term for the 186 ghettos that have sprung up around Sweden in the past two decades. These areas are predominantly populated by immigrants from muslim countries with low education and even lower employment rates. The exception being the enthusiastic entrepreneurs in the fields of drug dealing, protection rackets and robberies.

Since the real law doesn’t apply, the function of justice has largely been taken over by the gangs themselves, not unlike how the mafia is seen as the go-to place in rural Italy when the local police is too corrupt to serve its purpose. Unofficial courts are held and punishments are meted out based on the cultural norms of the dominant gangs. Some no-go areas even have vehicle checkpoints at the border. Not police checkpoints, but the gangs protecting their turf from law enforcement and rival gangs.

This development would have been inconceivable only 20 years ago, and one would think this official surrender by the police would have made big headlines. This is not the case; the most attention it seems to have received in mainstream media is an¬†opinion piece in national paper Svenska Dagbladet. Read more »

How do we help protect the Westernised Muslims?

It’s not a good time to believe in Allah as the true God while living in an essentially secular or Christian country. ¬†Some might say “so what?”, but there are some good people getting squeezed here that are as much victims of circumstance as anyone else.

Muslims are facing the worst job discrimination of any minority group in Britain, according to new research which found that they had the lowest chance of being in work or in a managerial role.

Muslim men were up to 76 per cent less likely to have a job of any kind compared to white, male British Christians of the same age and with the same qualifications. And Muslim women were up to 65 per cent less likely to be employed than white Christian counterparts.

Muslims were the most disadvantaged in terms of employment prospects out of 14 ethno-religious groupings in the UK, researchers Dr Nabil Khattab and Professor Ron Johnston found using data from the Office for National Statistics’ Labour Force Survey of more than half a million people. Skin colour made little difference to the figures.

Dr Nabil Khattab, of Bristol University, said the situation was “likely to stem from placing Muslims collectively at the lowest stratum within the country’s racial or ethno-cultural system due to growing Islamophobia and hostility against them.

“They are perceived as disloyal and as a threat rather than just as a disadvantaged minority,” he added.

Well yes.   We are told that fundamentalists abroad are to lie to non-believers and live quietly and blend in.  But then, once numbers get high enough, they want their own facilities, their own needs met, and eventually, this tips over into pockets in the community transforming into locations foreign to their host countries.

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The rise and rise of the anti-immigration right

The Conservatives and NZ First might survive the next few terms if the overseas trend makes its way here.  In the UK, the Uk Independence Party is going from strength to strength, no matter how many lefties call them racists.

Tory defector Mark Reckless today became Ukip’s second elected MP in a devastating blow to the Conservatives, declaring his new party will ‘give you back your country’.

He won the Rochester and Strood by-election by 2,920 votes, erasing the Tory majority of almost 10,000 that he secured in 2010.

In his acceptance speech, Mr Reckless said: ‘If we can win here, we can win across the country. If you vote Ukip, you get Ukip.’

Jubilant Nigel Farage punched the air and declared that the ‘massive, massive’ win in what he called a ‘David v Goliath battle’ meant ‘all bets are off’ for the general election in 2015.

The result is embarrassing for David Cameron who just six weeks ago tore into Mr Reckless and vowed to kick his ‘fat a***’ out of the Commons.

The Brits are sick to the back teeth about having their country overrun with EU immigrants. ¬† Their problems are ¬†much more advanced than hours, but immigration issues are becoming political drivers all over the world. ¬† Read more »

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Letting the British come here without restraint is a bad idea

London Mayor and parliamentary hopeful Boris Johnson is backing a report by a British think-tank which calls for New Zealanders and Australians to freely live and work in Britain.

Mr Johnson has written a foreword to a Commonwealth Exchange report which calls for Kiwis and Australians to be given the same rights to travel and work in the United Kingdom as people from the European Union.

The report – How to Solve a Problem Like a Visa – was released last night [NZ time] by the British think-tank, which focuses on Commonwealth relations.

It recommended establishing a “bilateral mobility zone” which would allow Kiwis and Aussies to travel and work in Britain and Britons to travel and work reciprocally in those two countries. A similar argument was made for Canada.

Prime Minister John Key said he would welcome the development but was “sceptical” about the likelihood of it coming to fruition.

Immigration was a major political issue in Britain, he said. “They’ve got a general election in May next year and I think it’s going to be very challenging to see much progress in that area.”

When you think “British” you think of someone white, middle class, educated and with a job. ¬†You don’t think of a 2nd generation Muslim Nigerian, do you? ¬† Now, the 2nd generation Muslim Nigerian may very well be an upstanding citizen and a fine addition to our work force. ¬†But it highlights the larger problem: ¬†The UK is ground zero for immigrants that are without jobs, without experience, without a useful control of the English language and without the prospect of bringing anything to the partnership. ¬† Read more »

For years I was accused of being racist

The man that signaled that unchecked immigration would turn into a severe problem for the UK is finally recognised as being smart, instead of racist.   Andrew Green writes:

It is remarkable that I, a campaigner against mass immigration, should this week have been granted a life peerage. A decade ago that would have been unthinkable, but the fact that it is now happening is a measure of how much attitudes have changed.

It has certainly taken a while. When I co-founded MigrationWatch with Professor David Coleman in 2001, nobody wanted to touch the subject. There was a widespread fear of being accused of racism that the Left were only too willing to exploit, and still are.

in those early years I was immensely encouraged when ordinary people, who must have seen me on television, stopped me in the street to thank me for what I was doing. These were the real people. Elsewhere, however, the so-called sensitivity was such that the BBC would not even use the word immigration. They called it ‚Äėin-migration‚Äô. And for years any BBC interview on the subject began with the question: ‚ÄėIs it racist to discuss immigration?‚Äô with the clear implication that the questioner thought that it was.

This went on long after the Prime Minister at the time, the Home Secretary, and even Trevor Phillips, head of the Commission on Racial Equality, declared that it was not. This was not enough to stop some newspapers accusing us of racism.

When an article in the Left-leaning Daily Mirror implied I was in some way associated with the Ku Klux Klan, I‚Äôd had enough. I instructed my lawyers, and the paper settled out of court for several thousand pounds of damages. Following two similar episodes with the Independent, the Left-wing press became rather more careful. Read more »

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Guess where the Islamic paradise on earth actually is

The UK

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French police used tear gas on crowds of migrants this week in Calais when around 300 attempted to storm lorries heading for the Channel 

Illegal immigrants making desperate bids to reach Britain have turned the port of Calais into a lawless ‘jungle’, according to the French far-right leader.

Marine Le Pen seized on escalating tensions in the town by calling for the urgent reintroduction of internal border controls that have been banished across much of Europe.

The leader of the anti-immigrant National Front party made the remarks during a visit to the northern port town where riot police this week used teargas to ward off hundreds of immigrants seeking to jump on to lorries bound for Britain.

There are similarities between the UK and New Zealand. ¬†Both island nations. ¬†Both tolerant secular western societies. ¬†¬† Read more »

Key isn’t making it up – the world is puckering up due to the ISIS threat

Thousands of terror suspects in the UK are being monitored by the security services, it has been claimed.

Far more militants than previously thought are under surveillance, according to the Mayor of London.

Boris Johnson said the threat from Islamist extremists may be greater than officials have admitted.

It had been believed that the main danger came from some 500 jihadis who have travelled to Syria and Iraq from Britain to join Islamic State or Al-Qaeda. About half of these have since returned to the UK.

But Mr Johnson told the Daily Telegraph the danger was much more widespread than the relatively small numbers of extremists who have gone abroad to fight.

‚ÄėIn London we‚Äôre very, very vigilant and very, very concerned,‚Äô he said. ‚ÄėEvery day ‚Äď as you saw recently, we had to raise the threat level ‚Äď every day the security services are involved in thousands of operations.

Luckily New Zealand doesn’t quite have the same proportion of Muslim immigration to underpin such a threat, but just because the numbers are lower doesn’t mean we don’t have our own issues. ¬† Read more »

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Press Editorial on the farce that is Kim Dotcom

Memo to the Herald and TV3 there is a reason your audience alongside your credibility is shrinking…your audience are not as stupid as you think they are.

David “tainted” Fisher’s story proved there was no conspiracy despite him stretching¬†credibility¬†to breaking point. It also, if anything, undermines Dotcom’s claims that Key had heard of him prior to the raids, not that anyone really cares when he heard of¬†him.

As the editorial points out if Key did a deal with Hollywood it would be much easier to extradite him if he hadn’t been granted residency.

Good to see the useless Grant Robertson on the news defying his leaders edict for a positive campaign and calling for John Key to come clean on what he knows. SInce he wants John Key to come clean, how about his boss tells us who his secret donors. It looks Labour want to continue to play gotcha politics, and the recent polls show Labour precisely how that is working out.

The Press editorial outlines the farce that is Kim Dotcom.

As if the saga of Kim Dotcom were not already absurd enough, this week it descended into a swirl of conspiracy theories that made it look like downright farce.

The theories are not necessarily compatible with each other or even internally consistent. Their main purpose is likely to turn out to be simply that they keep Dotcom’s name in the public eye.

Following them and attempting to disentangle them certainly adds to the stock of harmless public entertainment.

The theories have been fed by the release of email exchanges from Immigration New Zealand and the Security Intelligence Service about Dotcom’s application for permanent residency in New Zealand.

The application had been sent by INZ to the SIS for routine security and criminal checks. Dotcom was apparently anxious that permanent residency be granted so when he had not heard from INZ his agent had asked about it, prompting INZ to urge the SIS to hurry up with its report.

Many have leapt on an SIS officer’s off-hand suggestion in an email that “political pressure” was behind INZ’s interest in getting the SIS report. ¬†¬† Read more »

Oh look, there was no “political pressure” now, Herald over eggs story

It looks like the NZ Herald and David Fisher have over egged their story about Kim Dotcom, with immigration officials denying any political involvement.

That isn’t stopping Grant Robertson making hay while his leader is hiding from press in Queenstown.

NewstalkZB reports:

The government’s denying it put “political pressure” on Immigration officials to grant Kim Dotcom’s residency.

It follows the release of SIS emails, showing agents wanted to hold off on the residency application because Dotcom faced investigation by the FBI.

But they quickly gave it the green light, after being told Immigration New Zealand faced “political pressure” to get it approved.

A senior Immigration official said the then-minister, Jonathan Coleman, was an “interested party” in the application, because the government wanted more “high rollers”, like the internet mogul, gaining residency

Dr Coleman’s not commenting on the revelations, except to say the decision to grant residency was made by the department, and not by him.

Immigration New Zealand now says there was “unequivocally” no political pressure on the case.

John Key’s repeatedly denied knowing anything about Dotcom until just before his arrest in 2012.

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