Jacqui Blue

Friday’s Roy Morgan Poll had National down to 44.5%. This means it is down 2.5% on the election.

As far as List MPs go 44.5% means that National will lose 3 to 4 List MPs. On current rankings this means Tau Henare, Chris Auchinvole, Jacqui Blue and Cam Calder would all miss out.

On these numbers National would lose four electorates. Each percentage is worth about 350 votes meaning National would lose the following seats.

Waitakere
Christchurch Central
Waimakariri
Auckland Central

This will likely make it even more difficult for aspiring new candidates to get in on the list as these MPs will get priority over new MPs.

Early this morning my resident pinko troll mediatart made the following comment:

Steven Joyce is not interested in Rodney, but North Shore despite the misgivings of the Prime Minister who wants his master strategist to focus ion the whole country rather than just one seat. He has the president trying to scare away contenders so Steven can get selected unopposed. The other list MPs in Auckland are not strong enough to win selection in any seat, so don’t expect Melissa Lee, Jacqui Blue or Cam Calder to put their names forward anywhere other than where they are now.  The weakness of the candidates college which was largely dormant until late last year means there are few people coming through for selection that the public could get excited about.

Sometimes commenters can be very perspicacious, this is one reason why I like mediatart‘s” commentary….sometimes.

Unfortunately for National there is no one with the ego or moxie of Michelle Boag to quietly going around kneecapping MPs who are past their used by date. Credit to Michelle, she was bloody good at kneecapping people and she helped the selection process that saw John Key and Judith Collins take nominations from incumbents. It pays not to get in the way of an angry, egotistical woman on the warpath, discretion is definitely the better part of valour etc.

National has a fair bit of dead wood who don’t add a lot to caucus and would be better doing something else useful for National outside of caucus, letting someone else take their seat.  As mentioned in a previous post, Helen Clark waited too long to regenerate.

MPs like Wayne Mapp, Allan Peachey, Paul Hutchinson, Sandra Goudie and Lindsay Tisch hold safe blue seats, and have been good party people for a long time. They should be offered dignified exits and interesting career opportunities outside of parliament. No kneecapping, just a friendly chat about the future and their prospects.

Someone like Paul, who is far too nice to be in parliament, could well end up chair of a couple of health boards, or some other significant health appointment. Wayne could end up with an offshore posting where his intellect and experience are valued. Someone could have a word to Sir Peter Jackson about a starring role for Lindsay.

Then there are some list MPs who contribute little and probably wont win a seat any time soon. They also need to be moved on, often back to sectors where they were very successful, unlike their lack of success in parliament. This includes Paul Quinn, Katrina Shanks, and Jacqui Blue. They would be better off outside parliament, and if National were like Labour they would be given jobs were National needs someone they can trust. Jacqui Blue especially could provide vital expertise to Tony Ryall in helping correct the wrinkles in the health sector.

Since it seems to be the season for change and my wires are tingling about a couple of pending announcements this Friday it might be a good idea to add a few more to the list.

UPDATE: Wayne Mapp has announced his retirement at the next election.