John Hayes

National Selection Update, Ctd

Readers should remember this blog does not take sides in selections and always encourages people willing to run to have a crack. The only time it will take sides is to highlight unethical or immoral campaigns by dodgy candidates who think they can rig a selection.

Waikato: –  Lindsay Tisch has stared down the party so far and will run another term. He was told he should spend more time with his family but his family are better at kicking doors down and shaking the shit out of people so when they told him to run again he thought he had better listen to his family.

Napier: – Some poor sap is going to get badly beaten by Labour’s Stu Nash. Nash has the earliest campaign hoardings in living memory.

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Sounds like a top bloke

The Green Taliban are attacking George Osborne, from the evidence supplied so far it looks like he is a top bloke:

The peer, a Government minister until September’s reshuffle, was secretly videoed by green campaigners suggesting that Mr Osborne was behind the about-turn.

Eco-campaigners have been alarmed by an apparent policy shift, with sceptic Tory ministers like Environment secretary Owen Paterson and energy minister John Hayes appointed to key positions in the Government.

In a seven-minute long video posted by Greenpeace on the internet on Wednesday, Lord Howell said that it was Mr Osborne, not Prime Minister David Cameron, who was behind the changes.

He said: “The Prime Minister is not familiar with these issues, does not understand them. Osborne is of course getting this message and is putting pressure on.”

Lord Howell, the father of Mr Osborne’s wife Frances, was a foreign office minister until September’s reshuffle and is an adviser to foreign secretary William Hague.

The peer also was recorded suggesting that Britain was relying too heavily on Qatar in the Middle East for liquid gas supplies.

He said: “Qatar is a great place and it’s full of skyscrapers and rich people. But it’s also rather near to a lot of Jihadists … If Qatar was just to – it’s about the size of Guildford – go into chaos, we would be up s— creek we really would.”

Is Matthew Hooton Out of Touch?

In an otherwise good article explaining why Nick Smith won more Politician of the Week awards than anyone else based on his principles and willingness to have a dust up with anyone over ideology, Matthew Hooton has a shocker when describing potential replacements.

The tragedy of his departure is that, like too many of the appointments after the 2011 election, he is likely to be replaced with a below-average-intelligence, grey, provincial yes-man, unwilling to challenge the status quo and valued simply as a safe pair of hands.

Hooton seems to think that the provinces are inhabited with troglodytes who haven’t succeeded in the real world based on intellectual rigor and their own hard work.

In Tauranga Simon Bridges is Oxford Educated, which not many westies are, and he is far to refined to have leopard skin on his car. In Rotorua Todd McClay build a substantial lobbying business in Brussels, which is arguably not the real world but it was bloody successful, created links with many New Zealand businesses and did a lot of diplomatic work for Pacific nations. And succeeding in lobbying at one of the biggest parliaments in the world may not be my idea of success but it is better than being a successful unionist in a backwater like the New Zealand union movement.

Louise Upston’s mastery of policy details and background in leadership training means she is a safe pair of hands and has the potential to lead, not to just to administer.

From Hawkes Bay Chris Tremain turned a moderately successful family business in to a highly successful one, at the same time as making huge contributions to sports in HB. He is not in parliament “safe pair of hands”, going on record to upset the small minded in Napier, challenging the status quo on amalgamation. Craig Foss may have a gay ute but he was as successful in banking on an international scale as John Key before entering parliament.

Chester Borrows is a bit too wet on law and order, when he could man up and back the prevailing wisdom which is working world wide. His willingness to take a stand that is unpopular in National show he is not “unwilling to challenge the status quo”.

In the Wairarapa highly intelligent former diplomat John Hayes has well over 40 years of standing up for what he believes in, and not being afraid of a turn up for a good cause. At Lincoln he tried to remove the students association from the New Zealand students association, allegedly because they were a pack of communists, radicals, pooftas and other misfits. John can rest easy at night knowing he fights the good fight and is not one of Hooton’s “below average intelligence”.

Further South Amy Adams has shown herself to be willing to take on difficult issues, and no one has ever accused her of being a “yes-man”. Jo Goodhew is hugely popular in her electorate, and it is a travesty for Hooton to describe her as grey.

Michael Woodhouse may not be favored by the voters in Dunedin but he came to parliament with a track record of success in a difficult industry, where challenging the the status quo is an important part of success. Anyone that knows Michael knows he has a fine intellect, and is definitely not “below-average-intelligence”.

Is he ever embarrassed?

Murray McCully has never been embarrassed about anything…shameless is probably a better adjective:

Foreign Minister Murray McCully says he is not embarrassed by the release of emails hacked from his private account last year, including one from MP and former diplomat John Hayes suggesting ways to help people in the region to “resist China.”

Mr McCully said he saw no need to be contacting anyone about the emails.

“I don’t think it is going to keep anyone awake in bed at night,” he said today.

Mr Hayes was well known for his “plain speaking,” Mr McCully said, adding that he was not confirming the authenticity of anything or commenting on material that was stolen.

Right now, with the emails that have been released, McCully has actually had his reputation enhanced…bashing bloated civil servants is always a winner with the masses.

National party selections – Rimutaka

As is now expected from selections in the Lower North Island there is no skulduggery going on, which makes this blog question the National Party in Auckland.

Going back to normal practice, this blog will not be endorsing any candidate as the delegates can be relied on to select the right person for the seat and to beat Chris Hipkins who is very vulnerable. Why Andrew Little did not run in Rimutaka in 2008 is incomprehensible, and probably shows he does not have the ruthlessness to make it to Labour Leader.

This will be compounded by his failure to fundraise leaving Labour broke in the run up to the election.

The candidates seeking selection are Alastair Scott and Jonathan Fletcher. Alastair did not end up challenging sitting MP John Hayes in Wairarapa.

Jonathan Fletcher

Very personable, capable guy who will do well on the campaign trail if selected.

Pros

  • Very good with people
  • Understands social media
  • Good public speaker

Cons

  • A little young and hasn’t build a strong career yet
  • Maybe not the profile in the electorate that could help win it

Alastair Scott

Proven track record internationally in finance, working in NZ, UK and Japan. Owns a massive winery north of Masterton.

Pros

  • very successful overseas in a very tough market
  • could help National’s financial team if he makes it into caucus

Cons

  • Not the most natural at pressing the flesh
  • Not the strongest public speaker
  • Not the most connected person to the Rimutaka electorate
  • Made a poor decision to talk up challenging a sitting MP rather than ambushing him at the last minute

Anyone from National has a good chance of winning just based on the current poll numbers. This was a seat with a margin of 753 in 2008, and the campaign for National was messed up by an interfering, unpleasant harridan of a regional chair who could well have cost National the seat. Hopefully she will be in purgatory rather than on the campaign team in 2011.

As always candidates are welcome to send materials through which will be published unedited. Delegates or interested parties should email tipline[at]whaleoil.co.nz with information.

More on National's regeneration

Thanks to all the readers and journalists who have been in contact about the regeneration project for National. Several people have pointed out that the festive spirit has got into me, and I am moving people on nicely rather than telling them to bugger off.

Let’s put this in context. There are very few people in the National caucus that do not have very strong CVs and have not been successful in the real world before coming into parliament. Readers are challenged to name any. (Oh OK Nikki Kaye is one) That’s why I think most of the people that are moved on should be given options, because they can contribute outside parliament. It is not like they are simply troughers who are sticking their hand out because otherwise they will end up selling jewelry for Michael Hill.

A while back this blog talked about the importance of electorate seats, and why they are needed. Keeping the red scourge out of government means holding electorates, as this diverts Labour’s resources from areas they need to win to win power. So National needs to look ahead at 2014 when the polls will inevitably go against them.

In 2014 any open seat that was National held will be hard to keep. It will be much easier to keep if National have an MP in the seat for three years, which means getting them elected in 2011. Two seats will fall to Labour in 2014 if we don’t get people in willing to commit beyond 2014, Invercargill and Wairarapa.

This isn’t a criticism of Eric or John. Eric Roy is a bloody good guy who is known as a hunter and a fisherman, and he should be offered some interesting position like New Zealand liason to the NRA weapons testing program and sent to the states to shoot things for a few years.

For those that don’t know John Hayes he was the bloke that negotiated the end to the troubles in the Solomons. In a world full of conflict we should be putting him forward to sort out conflicts around the world, rather than wasting his talent on the back benches or in the Deliverance Country that is the Wairarapa.