Come September we could be watching the most popular political leader in the Western world, and the most popular party sitting on the sidelines as a coalition of the losers forms a government because of MMP.
Rodney Hide examines this with his column at NBR.
John Key is the most popular prime minister since polling began. Itâ€™s an extraordinary achievement. More remarkably, heâ€™s the Western worldâ€™s most popular elected leader.
UK Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama must look on Mr Keyâ€™s numbers with envious eyes and considerable wonder.
His popularity drives support for his party. National consistently polls a third higher than Labour. And so Mr Keyâ€™s a shoe-in this election, right? No. Itâ€™s looking like a very close thing. Thatâ€™s because we persist with a mongrel electoral system.
Itâ€™s not the party with the most votes that wins with MMP but the one that cobbles the support needed to govern. Mr Key and National could easily find themselves out in the cold.
I owe my entire parliamentary career to MMP, so I suppose I should be thankful. But I was never a fan of the system. My first serious political involvement was in opposing it. It was the first of my many political losses. Read more »