Kim Dotcom

Play or get off the field

As Labour lurches towards utter destruction with David Cunliffe at sixes and sevens there are some out there with good advice.

Lew at Kiwipolitico had this to say about National’s excellence at data-driven campaigns:

I have been criticising Labour, in particular, since at least 2007 on their unwillingness or inability to bring modern data-driven campaign and media strategy to bear in their campaigns — effectively, to embrace The Game and play it to win, rather than regarding it as a regrettable impediment to some pure and glorious ideological victory. Mostly the responses I get from the faithful fall under one or more of the following:

  • National has inherent advantages because the evil old MSM is biased
  • the polls are biased because landlines or something
  • the inherent nature of modern neoliberal society is biased
  • people have a cognitive bias towards the right’s messaging because Maslow
  • it inevitably leads to populist pandering and the death of principle
  • The Game itself devours the immortal soul of anyone who plays ( which forms a handy way to demonise anyone who does play)

But data is not a Ring of Power that puts its users in thrall to the Dark Lord. And, unlike the One Ring, it can’t be thrown into a volcano and the world saved from its pernicious influence. Evidence and strategy are here to stay. Use them, or you’re going to get used. The techniques available to David Farrar and the National party are not magic. They are available to anyone. Whether Labour has poor data or whether they use it poorly I do not know. It looks similar from the outside, and I have heard both from people who ought to know. But it doesn’t really matter. Data is only as good as what you do with it. Whatever they’re doing with it isn’t good enough.

The best example from this campaign isn’t Labour, however — it’s Kim Dotcom. He said on election night that it was only in the past two weeks that he realised how tainted his brand was. He threw $4.5 million at the Internet MANA campaign and it polled less than the Māori Party, who had the same number of incumbent candidates and a tiny fraction of the money and expertise. Had he thought to spend $30,000 on market research* asking questions like those asked by Curia about what New Zealanders think of Kim Dotcom, he could have saved himself the rest of the money, and saved Hone Harawira his seat, Laila Harré her political credibility, and the wider left a severe beating.

That is effective use of data: not asking questions to tell you what you want to hear, but to tell you what you need to know. This electoral bloodletting is an opportunity for the NZ political left to become reality-adjacent, and we can only hope they take it. Because if they don’t, reality is just going to keep winning.

Read more »

Trotter on the bull-fight that was Election 2014

shutterstock_102875750

Chris Trotter has now commented in writing about the election result.

He summarises:

Overall, the image presented to the electorate was one of John Key as the embattled matador. Alone in the arena, he faced charge after charge from a seemingly never-ending succession of bulls. But with every twirl of his cape and flash of his sword the pile of dispatched cattle-beasts grew higher. The crowd cheered. The roses rained down. “Bravo!” shouted 48 percent of New Zealand. “Three more years!”   Read more »

The left is hurting real bad

The left wing is hurting.

Their messiah actually turned out to be just a very naughty boy.

Scott Yorke isn’t happy:

Now that Labour has lost the election, it’s time for the party’s caucus to focus on the issues that really matter. I’m pleased to say that a number of them have made a flying start.

These are the issues that matter:

  • Anonymously briefing journalists and attacking potential rivals within Labour’s caucus.
  • Forming camps and factions to advance favoured candidates.
  • Spraying opinions all over the media that probably shouldn’t be aired in public.
  • Showing a lack of grace or humility.
  • Encouraging party members to locate and dispatch traitors within the party.
  • Not knowing when to retire from Parliament.
  • Refusing to accept any responsibility for disaster, and giving speeches blaming others for the epic defeat.
  • Making contact with Cameron Slater.

Read more »

Post election Prebble

The Letter just came in and among some of the more amusing items (ACT has a strong brand?), these items deserve a wider audience?

TVNZ, TV3 and state radio called this election wrong.

The credibility of our news services has taken a huge hit.

Night after night TV and radio told us John Key was a liar.

First “Dirty politics” and then claims of mass surveillance were given not just top billing but saturation coverage.

The news blogs are going to be the big winners.

This election has been the clearest example yet of the main stream media picking a winner and doing everything they could to make it happen.  Radio New Zealand, TV3 and the NZ Herald had nailed their colours to the mast for such a long time, changing gear was no longer possible once they realised they were backing the wrong horse.

Sadly, it’s been seen as a left v right issue, when it’s really been a right v wrong issue.  By picking sides, and as it turned out, very much the losing side, these media organisations have lost customers and credibility.

Look at the numbers for Campbell Live since Hosking joined Seven Sharp.

Look at the NZ Herald subscription numbers while they are desperately trying to push others out at cost to keep their numbers up.

Viewers are turning off.  Paywalls have been postponed.   Read more »

Political commentator burns his own business

...and abracadabra...Magic! ...there goes my business and reputation...

…and abracadabra…Magic! …there goes my business and reputation…

Many in the general punditry destroyed their reputation over the weekend and the preceding election campaign.

The were mostly wrong but some were really wrong.

One such pundit who, like Martyn Martin Bradbury has been more wrong than right is Matthew Hooton. His reputation is in tatters too now.

Positioned as a centre-right political commentator Matthew Hooton has been whoring himself around the media during this election period. Last night TV3 had him on as their centre right political commentator.

Some despise Hooton as an evil  right wing fascist.

Others more to the right of him, think he’s soft – despite telling all and sundry to give their two ticks to ACT in his regular NBR column.

Most political pundits think Hooton plays games and enjoys winding up the left.   Read more »

Dotcom’s actions “reprehensible”

My how the worm has turned.

The left wing is turning on Nicky Hagar and Kim Dotcom…mostly Kim Dotcom.

David Cunliffe has thrown him under the bus in a desperate bid to save his leadership.

Labour leader David Cunliffe has delivered a belated acknowledgement that it was a mistake not to work more closely with the Green Party and lashed out at Kim Dotcom as “reprehensible.”

Asked if Mr Dotcom had affected the chances on the left, Mr Cunliffe said “absolutely.”

“For anybody to wade into New Zealand politics, spend over $4 million and end up wiping out his own supporters and damaging the left I think is reprehensible.”

Read more »

The social media election? Yeah, Nah

iSRbilxF

Callum Valentine – Social Media “genius”

This election was billed as the social media election by  many pundits, and some political parties.

The Internet party in particular banked their success on social media.

Kim Dotcom and his little band of failures including Callum Valentine, a supposed social media genius, all told us that their much vaunted apps would secure them victory.

They also told us that their masses of Facebook likes and Twitter followers were going to get them over the line.

They were wrong.

Matthew Beveridge even had an entire blog devoted to analysing and writing about the social media election. He was wrong too.

Matthew has written a blog post about the effects of social media, where he finally cottons on to what I have been saying for a very long time.

I am a huge fan of social media. I love how it allows candidates, MPs and parties to talk directly to voters. I love how it allows people, who would never otherwise meet, to interact with each other and to learn from each other. But it has its limitations. It is very much a self selecting environment. It is incredibly easy to end up with a timeline that is nothing but an echo chamber.

For a number of people on the left, and even some parties on the left. I have a feel this is what has happened. They have seen all the talk about how it is time to change the government. About how the media is biased. How about dirty politics will resonate with the electorate. As well as about many other issues. But they forget that social media in general, and Twitter in particular, are not accurate representations of the rest of the electorate. I blogged earlier about how when dirty politics was being talked about on Twitter, it wasn’t really connecting with the electorate. The articles that were being read on TVNZ, Herald and Stuff were not the ones about dirty politics. They were about the every day things that mattered to, or interested, average voters.

Read more »

So, all that was needed was a reach around?

This has to be headline of the year.

harre-handjob

So what is Laila Harre trying to say…that all that was needed was a hand-job for Kim Dotcom?

Internet Pary leader Laila Harre believes the right’s vilification of Kim Dotcom, and the left’s failure to counter it, cost David Cunliffe the election.

She also said the party should have recognised the effectiveness of the right’s portrayal of Mr Dotcom as electoral poison, and pulled him from the campaign’s frontline.

Last night’s election result delivered to Internet-Mana a lowly 1.26 per cent of the party vote – but it has failed to gain a foothold in Parliament because Mana leader Hone Harawira lost his grip on Te Tai Tokerau.

The result puts the future of the internet Party – and its alliance with Mana – in doubt.   Read more »

Dotcom’s worst investment yet

23423

$577 per vote.    And $4.5M for… nothing.

Tagged:

Dimpost on the left’s slaughter

Danyl McLauchlan writes about the slaying of the left.

  • The National Party is an incredibly well resourced, well managed, professional political party and it turns out that these things counted for a lot last night.
  • The phone was not off the hook for Labour. Twelve months ago, just after Cunliffe won the leadership of his party Labour were on 37% with the Greens on 12%. There’s a cliche that oppositions don’t win elections, government’s lose them, but Labour lost this election. Cunliffe is probably the worst campaigner in New Zealand political history.
  • Based on the preliminary figures I think turnout will end up being slightly higher than last time but still very low. I was a strong advocate for a strategy of having left-wing parties try and improve their vote by targeting and mobilising younger voters, but it turns that that strategy is electoral suicide! Sorry guys!
  • So the lesson from last night’s right-wing landslide seems to be that older New Zealanders are very engaged with the political process and younger New Zealanders are not. That’s a shame but it’s a message politicians cannot ignore. No one’s going to waste time and energy chasing ‘the youth vote’ again for a very long time.

Youth don’t vote, ever. A few Nat MPs I know don’t bother chasing this vote, the effort required for the payoff means you are better off working elsewhere.

  • I think that the best way forward for Labour is for Cunliffe and ‘the old guard’ – Goff, Mallard and King – to resign. They’ve been at war for six years now and they’re tearing their party apart. I doubt this will happen though. The civil war will drag on for another parliamentary term. That party is dying.

Read more »