Labour party

Andrew Little & the Miliband Phenomenon

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

Who’s Wallace?

Labour in the UK thought they were on to a winner with Ed Miliband.

They managed to convince themselves that the pommy public would vote for a dopey looking leader who never made any ground in the preferred PM stakes.

The lead up to the election was all about how the public would ignore the poor preferred prime minister polls and vote Labour.

Then on election day the population failed to get this memo and gave Ed the arse.   Read more »

Why do the left think Winston will do a deal with them?

The 3News-Reid Research poll has the left-wing clutching at passing hope.

The left are thinking they can count Winston and NZ First’s votes as their own. They seem to be projecting their own fantasies onto a man who has been in parliament off and on for over 35 years, and knows more about politics than the looneys on the left will ever know.

So why do they assume Winston will go with them?

Have they asked him?

Have they sat down and thought about what Winston thinks of the Greens, and whether he trusts them or would work with them?

And can they actually count? There are a whole lot of numbers they should count.   Read more »

The Delusions of the Left on their Internal Poll

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

We’re winning I tell you, we’re winning

Yesterday we published a couple of posts highlighting the stupidity of anyone believing the UMR polls, mainly because they are so far out of sync with the TV One & TV3 Polls. Remember that the two TV polls had Labour 15% behind National, yet Labour are now claiming their internal polls are at 41-35, a gap of 6.

The halfwits on the left immediately seized on this as a panic attack on Whaleoil, rather than a deliberate take down of a poll that has no credibility. Chris Trotter wrote at the Daily Bog:

“Something Very, Very Different”: Why rumours of Labour’s internal poll numbers are giving the Nats the heebie-jeebies

Who knows which National Party Chris is thinking about but the only thing Labour’s rigged poll has given National is a lot of laughs.   Read more »

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UMR doesn’t stand for Unbelievably Massaged Result

Different? What do you mean different?

Different? What do you mean different?

Labour’s pollsters UMR have allegedly done a poll that shows Labour 41-35 down instead of 47-31 down as all the other polls show.

People in the polling industry are very surprised with these numbers, and consider them to be highly unlikely.

They also consider it highly unlikely that a reputable polling company like UMR would ever get a poll that is this far different from all the other polls.

The issue for UMR is that if their brand gets damaged by showing crazy poll results that don’t reflect reality some of their commercial candidates will axe them.

Unbelievable political polls damage polling organisations reputations, and cost them work. UMR will be desperate to release the actual polls to show they are not dodgy.

Labour should release the raw data from the poll to prove that it is kosher.   Read more »

Did Tamati Coffey over spend last election and should he be prosecuted for a corrupt practice?

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They say money doesn’t win elections and in some ways they are right. Kim Dotcom tried. Colin Craig tried. There needs to be more to a candidate than a lot of money.

With that said, there are reasons why we control election spending and set limits. Politics should be about the strength of the candidate, not the depth of their pockets.

Looking through the candidate expenses for the 2014 General Election, one case stood out. Firstly because it looks odd. Secondly because Labour Party candidates are not used to overspending (unless it is tax payer’s money of course).

In the election period Labour Party candidate for Rotorua, former TV weatherman Tamati Coffey – Labour’s parachute candidate in Rotorua – spent $31,182.36 all up. Once attribution percentages are taken into account he got the final number down to $25,001.77. The cap for the 2014 General Election was $25,700. Sounds fair? Well it doesn’t leave much wriggle room.     Read more »

The Questions Labour Needs to Ask UMR

What do you mean margin of error stuff, Phil said this would work?

What do you mean margin of error stuff, Phil said this would work?

The Labour Party is doing a lot of self-congratulating at the moment.

Their internal polls show something very, very different from the publicly available polls. Apparently, the gap between Labour & National is about 6 or 7 percent in internal poll results,  when the public polls have it at 15%.

People thinking that Labour have found the new messiah in Andrew Little probably need to start thinking again – because there is no way the public polls and the UMR polls could be that different. Likely as not there has been some fudging of the polls before they are shared with the Labour caucus tomorrow.

Caucus members who do not wish to be deceived by polls should be asking the following questions:

1. Why are the UMR polls so different from the public polls?

A nice easy question to get them started.     Read more »

Labour’s Poll Problems

Sources inside Fraser House are saying that Labour has had some very good internal polls.

They are talking about National being in the low forties and Labour in the mid to high thirties. This is allegedly based on UMR’s internal polls.

This has lead to some self congratulation inside the Labour camp, but they should be a bit careful about internal polls.

Especially when the two most recent public polls show that there is no closing of the gap between Labour & National.

TV3 Poll

National            47.0%
Labour               31.1%

Gap                     15.9%      Read more »

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Labour MP lobbies for non-compliant solution as he shills a story

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David Clark put out a press release and shilled a story to Radio NZ about a Housing NZ tenant, who is whinging about the removal of a ladder from the side of our house she is living in.

A Housing New Zealand tenant says she was told to jump out of her two-storey window in the case of fire, after emergency escape ladders were removed from her Dunedin home.

Jodee Vince said the ladders were taken off while her Pine Hill home was being painted last month. But they were never put back on.

When she asked why not, Ms Vince said Housing New Zealand told her they were no longer needed because smoke alarms had been installed.

“I was told that we were to just jump out the window as it would be better having a broke leg than being burnt,” she said.

Ms Vince was recovering from back surgery and said she would not be able to do jump out and said she was “devastated” by the advice given.

“I want them put back for the safety of my children. Obviously our lives are not worth it and they just don’t care,” she added.

Labour’s Dunedin North MP David Clark said he was aware of other Housing New Zealand tenants in Dunedin having their escape ladders removed and he was worried that the agency was cutting costs.

“If it wasn’t such a serious matter it would be laughable. Smoke alarms might alert someone to a fire but you cannot climb down a smoke alarm to safety,” he said.

Housing New Zealand said the ladders were not a legal requirement and some were being removed as part of general maintenance of properties because of health and safety and security issues.

“It is our policy to have fitted working smoke alarms in all bedrooms, hallways and living areas. This extensive coverage gives tenants good early warning of fire,” a spokesman said.

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Does Labour need Helen back?

A Listener editorial explores Labour’s predicament after resorting to the race card:

It’s always disturbing when a racial minority is identified as the cause of a social or economic problem. The extreme example is Nazi Germany, where mass extermination was justified on the premise that Jews were subversive, disloyal and a threat to “true” Germans. The elderly Auschwitz survivor in Diana Wichtel’s powerful and moving interview this week talks of the “vicious, lurking stereotypes about Jews. ‘You know, the international connections, the richness, Shylock … We’re human beings.’” And although it’s a huge leap from Nuremberg in 1935 to Auckland in 2015, Labour MP Phil Twyford’s suggestion that Chinese speculators are to blame for Auckland’s overheated housing market struck a jarring note in a country with a generally proud record of racial tolerance.

Two factors made it especially disheartening. One is that the suggestion came from a senior MP in a party that has historically aligned itself with vulnerable elements in society, of whom ethnic minorities are one. Immigrants to New Zealand have tended to support Labour precisely because they sensed it was the party most likely to champion their interests. Under former leader Helen Clark, Labour made a point of embracing ethnic minorities. This is entirely in line with the liberal belief in multiculturalism, both as a way of providing new opportunities for people seeking a better future and as a means of enriching and diversifying our society.

Helen Clark even apologised to Chinese migrants for our legacy of oppressive laws and rules against Chinese in New Zealand, in particular the hated poll tax.

In recent years, National and Labour have welcomed immigrants from a wide range of countries, far wider than the narrow band from which they were once recruited. In a remarkably short time, New Zealand has become one of the most diverse societies in the English-speaking world. The 2013 Census found that 25% of New Zealanders were born overseas and 12% of the population identified as Asian – almost double the figure of 2001. Three hundred ethnic groups are represented here, from Afrikaners to Zimbabweans.    Read more »

Bogan expert disagrees with Trotter

A dead set bogan expert, a PhD in boganology no less, disagrees with Chris Trotter over Labour targeting bogans for support.

The article is good and certainly needs a bigger audience than the few lamb chop recipe aficionados that infest New Zealand’s premier blog for posts about pots, pans and pannier bags.

First and foremost, there is some initial clarification needed. Being a Bogan is not based on deficit. Perhaps it is due to academic thinking on subcultural groups such as Bogans, typified by the work of academics in the Birmingham tradition such as Hall in Resistance through Rituals, which conceptualised youth cultures as a way for young people to support each other due to class subordination. Their so-called deviant behaviour was viewed as a reaction of working-class youth to structural changes in post-war Britain.

The Birmingham tradition of sub-cultural research is hugely influential to this day, including further research in the 1970s concerning subcultures such as Mods, Rockers, and Skinheads. Chris’s column is reminiscent of this thinking, in his suggestions that Bogans are a response of sorts to Labour’s economic changes in the 1980s, vis-a-visRoger Douglas.

I am not a political scientist. While more research would be needed in the area before a definitive statement could be made, I will say that working class is not a dirty term. The working class have marketable skills; they build your houses, they fix your car, and they replace that o-ring in the tap in your kitchen sink which you really should have done yourself.

They rent a room and not a house because it means more money to buy that gearbox they wanted. They lack tertiary qualifications not because of a lack of intelligence, but because you don’t need a doctorate to get a job as a mechanic when a certificate will do – a job that they enjoy and gives access to a decent work space.

The problem with the Birmingham tradition was that it portrayed subcultural groups as unwitting dupes or victims who banded together due to a lack of voice. While the Birmingham tradition provides a useful base for research into such groups, to apply such thinking to more modern communities silences those the research purports to give voice to. The Bogan, and by extension the working class, are not victims in a modern sense.

Read more »