Andrea Vance’s very shallow analysis suggested that Lindsay Tisch would be told not to run again. This shows a very poor understanding of the National Party constitution.
To kick Tisch out requires a lot more than giving him the arse card.
If he decides to dig his heels in he can likely hold his seat for life because Waikato has high membership. High membership matters because for every 10 members there is one delegate allocated. There must be 60 delegates, so if your electorate has less than 600 members the regional chair gets to top up the delegates to make 60.
A National selection requires a majority. In the event of a tie between the last two candidates the regional chair gets to make a casting vote, but this rarely happens. The classic way to stitch up an electorate selection is to have low membership then for the regional chair to put forward a whole lot of people who know which way to vote, as they did in Helensville in 2002.
Any electorate with much more than 300 members usually controls the selection themselves, although to be on the safe side it is better to have more members in case some of your delegates switch sides. Read more »