Hekia Parata’s strong campaign in Mana means that it is now a marginal seat. This means National could well ride on the coat-tails of Hekias success and make it a strategic seat.
Labour have nominated their strategic seats, but National haven’t. With such a tiny majority Faafoi must be worried that National will pull resources out of Wellington to concentrate on taking the seat off him.
The only other marginal seat in Wellington is Wellington Central, where Grant Roberston won a 1904 majority. Grant has a reputation as a hard working pinko that does well in his latte sipping electorate, and it is hard to see a National candidate challenging him.
This means Hekia could benefit from the National Party taking resources out of Rongatai (hard core red), Hutt South (Mallard has a lock on it) and Ohariu (Shanks could well be signing up for Bob Jones’ course at Massey).
With a final margin of just 1406 and in reality the only winnable seat now in the Wellington region the case is strong for Mana to become a strategic seat.
Electorate Winning Candidate Losing Candidate EV EV Margin
Waimakariri COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) 15,970 16,360 -390
Rimutaka HIPKINS, Christopher John (LAB) WHITESIDE, Richard (NAT) 12,982 13,735 -753
Christchurch Central BURNS, Brendon (LAB) WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) 13,143 14,078 -935
Palmerston North LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain (LAB) PLIMMER, Malcolm (NAT) 14,860 15,977 -1,117
Wellington Central ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB) FRANKS, Stephen (NAT) 15,142 17,046 -1,904