Maori Party

Hone gets his beans, again

Hone Harawira is a sucker for punishment.

His judge supervised re-count has put him in a worse position than when he started.

The number of votes for Mana leader Hone Harawira has been cut by two after a recount in the Te Tai Tokerau seat.

The Electoral Commission released the results of the recount this afternoon, reporting “minor variations” to the official result published on Saturday.

Votes for Labour’s Kelvin Davis rose from 9710 to 9712, and Mr Harawira’s votes fell from 8971 to 8969. Read more »

Better in the tent than outside

The Maori party have signed a confidence and supply agreement with National and Te Ururoa Flavell has become a Minister.

John Key keeps his inclusive government ticking along and the Maori party continues to be able to deliver.

Te Ururoa Flavell will become a Minister outside Cabinet after the Maori Party reached a confidence and supply agreement with National for the third straight term.

The Maori Party co-leader was announced as the new Minister of Maori Development (a new title for what was Maori Affairs) as well as holding the Whanau Ora and associate economic development portfolios.

It came after Flavell, outgoing MP and fellow Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia and Prime Minister John Key officially signed the relationship accord with National – Te Tatau ki te Paerangi – at Parliament this afternoon.

Key welcomed the third straight agreement he had signed with the Maori Party and the way it had approached governing with National.

“I have no doubt that we New Zealanders are better off because of it.”

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Play or get off the field

As Labour lurches towards utter destruction with David Cunliffe at sixes and sevens there are some out there with good advice.

Lew at Kiwipolitico had this to say about National’s excellence at data-driven campaigns:

I have been criticising Labour, in particular, since at least 2007 on their unwillingness or inability to bring modern data-driven campaign and media strategy to bear in their campaigns — effectively, to embrace The Game and play it to win, rather than regarding it as a regrettable impediment to some pure and glorious ideological victory. Mostly the responses I get from the faithful fall under one or more of the following:

  • National has inherent advantages because the evil old MSM is biased
  • the polls are biased because landlines or something
  • the inherent nature of modern neoliberal society is biased
  • people have a cognitive bias towards the right’s messaging because Maslow
  • it inevitably leads to populist pandering and the death of principle
  • The Game itself devours the immortal soul of anyone who plays ( which forms a handy way to demonise anyone who does play)

But data is not a Ring of Power that puts its users in thrall to the Dark Lord. And, unlike the One Ring, it can’t be thrown into a volcano and the world saved from its pernicious influence. Evidence and strategy are here to stay. Use them, or you’re going to get used. The techniques available to David Farrar and the National party are not magic. They are available to anyone. Whether Labour has poor data or whether they use it poorly I do not know. It looks similar from the outside, and I have heard both from people who ought to know. But it doesn’t really matter. Data is only as good as what you do with it. Whatever they’re doing with it isn’t good enough.

The best example from this campaign isn’t Labour, however — it’s Kim Dotcom. He said on election night that it was only in the past two weeks that he realised how tainted his brand was. He threw $4.5 million at the Internet MANA campaign and it polled less than the Māori Party, who had the same number of incumbent candidates and a tiny fraction of the money and expertise. Had he thought to spend $30,000 on market research* asking questions like those asked by Curia about what New Zealanders think of Kim Dotcom, he could have saved himself the rest of the money, and saved Hone Harawira his seat, Laila Harré her political credibility, and the wider left a severe beating.

That is effective use of data: not asking questions to tell you what you want to hear, but to tell you what you need to know. This electoral bloodletting is an opportunity for the NZ political left to become reality-adjacent, and we can only hope they take it. Because if they don’t, reality is just going to keep winning.

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Just 1% in it, Maori party supporters need to vote for Kelvin Davis

Maori Television has a shock poll in Te Tai Tokerau, showing that Kelvin Davis is within 1% of tipping over Hone Harawira.

A major upset could be ahead for Hone Harawira in the Māori electorate of Te Tai Tokerau, given the close battle between him and Kelvin Davis according to our Māori Television poll results.

Hone Harawira is still leading the electorate on 38%.  However Kelvin Davis is on 37%, so there is just 1% between them.

No doubt, Hone Harawira’s knees will be shaking from those numbers and so too will Internet-MANA.    Read more »

Herald editorial calls out Winston

Yesterday’s Herald editorial calls time on Winston’s usual political chicanery.

Winston Peters sounds worried, as well he might be. His party has risen in our poll this week but Colin Craig’s Conservative Party remains poised near the threshold. If the Conservatives gain another percentage point or two they will offer National an option to Mr Peters, should National need another supporting party to return to office. John Key would clearly prefer to deal with almost anyone else.

The 8 per cent or so of voters who are planning to put Mr Peters back in Parliament are probably his perennial admirers and impervious to a public appeal, but here is one. Spare the country, please, another round of Mr Peters’ phony post-election routine. We have all seen it before. He makes everyone wait while he plays out a negotiation for no purpose beyond the pleasure he finds in it.

He thinks he is keeping people guessing but it has become tediously obvious what he will do in the end. If the result next Saturday night leaves him in a pivotal position there is no doubt he will put the winning party in power; he would not dare do otherwise.

The only uncertainty is the number of days or weeks he will want to delay the inevitable. New Zealand’s government should not be put at the disposal of somebody like this. Only his supporters can do something about it.

Winston likes the theatre…there are only two shows he won’t perform…a dogs show and no show.

They ought to consider that Mr Peters is nearly 70. It is well past time to retire him.

He has been in and out of Parliament since 1978, longer than any other MP. He has never come to terms with changes to the economy 30 years ago and at this election he is reaching further back to recall the protected prosperity of the 1950s.

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Face of the day

 

The Internet Party want us to take them seriously. This is their Mascot being serious.

The Internet Party want us to take them seriously.
This is their Mascot being serious.

If I didn’t know that this was the Mascot of The Internet Party I would think that it was some kind of  a joke. A cat wearing goggles and snorkel?

Seriously?

This is going to attract the YOUTH vote?

Really?

Hmmmm…. perhaps I should suggest some suitable mascots for the other parties   Read more »

Cunliffe can’t count

David Cunliffe reckons that he will only have “3 parties max” in his government.

Labour leader David Cunliffe says there will be a maximum of three parties in any Government he leads, and has ruled out including the Maori Party at the Cabinet table.

Speaking to Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking this morning, Mr Cunliffe said he intended to only include the Green Party and NZ First in any government.

Asked if he was also ruling out the Maori Party, he said he would possibly talk to Maori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell after the election but “I just won’t have them in Government.”

He did not believe Mr Flavell would opt to side with Labour if it was in a kingmaker position, despite Mr Flavell saying they were open to working with either side and would take their lead from what Maori voters wanted.

“People need to know before the election that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for the National Party.”

He would not rule out a lower level arrangement with internet-Mana, but repeated his claim that they would not hold any ministerial or other executive positions.

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Guest Post: Muriel Newman – Stealing an election

by Dr. Muriel Newman

Elections should be a contest of ideas. Once every three years political parties are given an opportunity to pitch their ideas to voters on how they would run the country. The campaign period gives voters a chance to carefully examine the policies of the parties, and to decide on the sort of government they would like to see in charge of the Treasury benches.

This election campaign has, however, been effectively stolen from voters. Left wing activist Nicky Hager clearly planned to dominate the campaign period with the publication of his book of hacked emails. He has done this before. He knows how the media works and how they feed on a diet of scandal and sensation. He knew releasing private emails would overshadow the campaign and give him unprecedented publicity.

Opposition politicians love government scandals too.  Scandals not only enable them to score multiple points against the incumbents, but they provide them with an opportunity to claim their own image is whiter than fresh snow. Their innocence and purity is of course fake. Politics is not called the “dark art” for nothing.

Politics is and always has been a very tough business – tougher than anything else. To survive and thrive politicians have to learn to play hardball. Those who can’t or don’t want to play, generally do not last in politics.

It has never been any different. In fact, those politicians who have been bleating the most loudly about how dreadful it all is and calling for inquiries – pretending they would never conspire with others to try to discredit their opposition – are simply playing the game. They are gaining easy publicity from a scandal obsessed media that wants to keep the story running for as long as they possibly can.

But while this whole affair has been played ad nauseam, the elephant in the room is the question about how it can be that Nicky Hager can receive stolen goods and knowingly profit from them by selling the hacked emails in his book, without being charged by the Police for the crime of receiving. Under Section 246 of the Crimes Act 1961, “Every one is guilty of receiving who receives any property stolen or obtained by any other imprisonable offence, knowing that property to have been stolen or so obtained, or being reckless as to whether or not the property had been stolen or so obtained.”

According to Section 247, the penalties for the crime of receiving, depends on the dollar value of the goods received. If the goods do not exceed $500, then the maximum penalty is three months imprisonment. If they are valued between $500 and $1000 then the maximum penalty is 12 months imprisonment. And if they are valued at over $1000 then the maximum penalty is seven years imprisonment.

Hager clearly sits in the latter category.

But it isn’t just the owners of the confidential emails who are the victims of Mr Hager and his partners in crime – it is also New Zealand voters. The media’s fixation on the scandal has meant that they have largely ignored their crucial Fourth Estate role of reporting party policies and asking tough questions. This means that the full implications of key policy agendas have not been revealed.

This is a potentially dangerous situation.

In case anyone needs reminding, it was the former Labour government’s policy agenda of tax and spend that pushed the country into a recession in early 2008, months ahead of the onset of the global financial crisis. The government had become bloated and profligate. Excessive government spending had forced up interest rates to amongst the highest in the OECD. Even though there was a serious shortage of unskilled workers, the welfare system was failing to move beneficiaries into jobs. The economy was out of balance, the labour market was inflexible, the bureaucracy was stultifying, and small businesses were going to the wall.   Read more »

All hopes on Hone as Maori Party set to clean out Sykes

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As the elder statesmen and women of the Maori Party fall by the wayside, and the Mana with it, it appears that it will be just time before the Maori Party becomes a footnote in New Zealand’s political history.

But not just yet, reports Michael Fox

The Maori Party’s future is looking more secure, according to the results of a new poll in co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell’s Waiariki electorate.

With the party performing poorly in all major political polls, well below the 5 per cent needed to enter Parliament without an electorate seat, its survival could rest on Flavell retaining the seat he has held since 2005.

Last night’s Maori Television Reid Research Poll of 500 voters showed 50 per cent of respondents would vote for Flavell if the election were held now. Read more »

What is David Cunliffe’s route to Victory?

The polls are still looking sick for David Cunliffe. He hasn’t managed to get Labour out of the twenties, let alone getting them back to the level that David Shearer had before the Labour caucus gave him the arse.

Cunliffe is holding onto the hope that he can cobble together a coalition of the Greens, New Zealand First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party. Maybe with Peter Dunne involved too as everyone knows Peter doesn’t really care who as long as he is minister.

Cunliffe’s route to victory is a hydra. 

Credit:  SonovaMin

Credit: SonovaMin

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