Maori Party

The Maori party appears to shored up its base, now looking like retaining 4 seats:

The Maori Party looks set to retain its four seats in Parliament, giving National a potentially powerful buffer if Saturday should turn out to be a tight race.

The latest Te Karere DigiPoll has it retaining Te Tai Tonga, which was previously seen as vulnerable.

That is on top of earlier polls showing it is also likely to retain Waiariki and Tamaki Makaurau, two other seats previously seen as likely to swing to Labour.

The word is the powerful iwi have decided that being in government is preferable to being in opposition. Last night John Key said in the TV3 debate that the Maori party have been great to work with.

Vernon Small is thinking only to the end of this election when he says the following.

John Key is about to make a major mistake today with his public cup of tea with John Banks; a symbolic signal to National voters to back the ACT candidate in Epsom.

National can probably win without ACT in 2011, but in 2014 when the Maori leaders leave, and ACT aren’t around as Vernon and other media is advocating National have no coalition partners. It will be a National, Labour, Greens and rag tag and bobtail parliament, with National trying to cobble together support from parties of the left.

The media and left wing flunkies are all moaning about legitimate coalition arrangements and talks.

I don;t support MMP, i never have but it is also why I have been hammering on about Nationals Strategic Stupidity. If they keep MMP they become the Natural Party of Opposition. No ACT. No Maori Party. No United Future. No chance of ruling without winning 48% of the vote.

Poll after poll shows National is going to get over the magic 48% that will give it a majority in parliament, and the National support Parties ACT, United Future and the Maori Party are struggling for relevance.

Labour are getting a hiding this election, but will endure just as National did after their disastrous results in 1987 and 2002, and Labour came back strong in 1993 after getting hammered in 1990. The Greens have got rid of their old socialist wing and nut case wing, and are doing well with a moderate leadership so they are going to be around in the future.

Labour and the Greens will be a nice natural fit together, and the dominant governing coalition.

John Key has unprecedented popularity and if he tells New Zealand to vote for change and to back another electoral system they will. If he does this National is in with a chance in the future, as it wont need to get over 48% of the vote or have a minor parties survive, which looks highly unlikely.

National caucus members should be asking on the daily campaign calls when National will endorse a vote for change to ensure they don’t become the natural party of opposition.

Pita Sharples is showing Shane Jones a thing or two in Tamaki Makaurau. You need more than glib and nasty one liners and you certainly need to spend time on the marae not in seedy motels watching porn:

The latest Tamaki Makaurau poll should make happy reading for Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples.

According to a Te Karere DigiPoll released today, Dr Sharples appears to have victory in the Auckland Maori electorate sewn up.

The poll, which surveyed 400 Maori roll voters, gave Dr Sharples a massive majority of 58 per cent for the electorate vote, with Labour’s Shane Jones coming in second with less than half the votes, on 23 per cent.

Trailing further behind were Mana’s Kereama Pene and Green Party candidate Mikaere Curtis, on 14 and 3 per cent respectively.

Dr Sharples has held the seat since 2005 when he won it from Labour’s John Tamihere.

The latest NZ Herald/Digipoll is out. This is a far more reputable poll with a good history and certainly not like some other dodgy polls out there.

The bad news for Labour is that the people aren’t listening:

Labour’s support has slipped in the first week of the election campaign to below 30 per cent, in the latest DigiPoll survey released this afternoon.

Labour is on 29.1 per cent, the first time Labour has been in the 20s in the 12 years the Herald has been running DigiPoll surveys.

The poll will be running weekly until the election.

Labour’s fall of 1.2 points over the week may not be much of a fall but it will be a psychological blow for the party to fall below 30 per cent.

…Mr Key is preferred Preferred Prime Minister on 70.6 per cent, the same as last week, and support for Labour leader Phil Goff has slipped from 13.7 per cent last week to 11.7 this week.

The full results are:

National 54.2 (up 0.7 from last week)
Labour 29.1 (down 1.2)
Greens 10.1 (up 0.6)
Maori Party 1.9 (up 0.7)
NZ First 1.7 (down 1.1)
Conservatives 1.1 (up 1.1)
Act 0.9 (down 0.6)
United Future 0.5 (up 0.4)
Mana 0.1 (no change)

Tracy Watkins outlines a scenario where the most popular Prime Minister in New Zealand history could end up losing.

But what the poll also reveals is that any slump in National’s support could see the situation rapidly change, because of the state of its likely allies.

The ACT party, on 1.2 per cent support, needs John Banks to win Epsom to have any hope of making it into Parliament – and that is by no means assured, according to some polls.

The Maori Party, which has governed with National, is in disarray – and facing a three-way challenge in the Maori seats that could see it return to Parliament with fewer MPs than its current four.

Labour, on the other hand, is shored up by support to its Left for the Greens, who remain the only minor party with a sizeable share of the vote.

At 9.7 per cent support their vote, combined with Labour’s, puts the Left on 41 per cent, still 11.6 points behind National and a long way from forcing an upset.

National will probably be able to govern after the election, but after 2014 and beyond it looks like its support parties may not be in parliament in any real strength. National has had its head so far in the sand it has not taken a position on the referendum on the electoral system. If MMP is retained National becomes the Natural Party of Opposition in the long run.

That will John Key’s legacy to the party, not two terms in government.

Tariana Turia has announced she will retire.

Having solved the Sea Bed and Foreshore issue her party no longer has a reason to exist, and it is hard to image them finding someone with the mana required to take over in her seat.

I have long held that the Maori Party is doomed, and that National is rapidly running out of coalition partners. National may win a majority this time, but has only won a majority once since 1951. With no coalition partners and Labour and the Greens likely to work together National will become the Natural Party of Opposition.

Why hasn’t National gone all out to protect its future by telling the New Zealand public to vote for change in this referendum?

Two polls tonight and two disasters for Labour.

3News Reid Research Poll

National: up 3.5 to 57.4%
Labour: down 2.2 to 26.6% (lowest ever recorded on 3 News)
Greens: up 0.5 to 9.8%
NZ First: down.0.3 to 1.9%
ACT: down 0.6 to 1.6%
Maori: down 0.7 to 0.8%
Mana: no change 0.7%
United Future 0.0%

OneNews Colmar Brunton poll

National 56% Steady
Labour 29% Down 1%
Green Party 9% Up 3%
NZ First 2% Steady
Act 1% Down 1%
The Maori Party 1% Steady
Mana Party 1% Steady

Fortunately for Labour it isn;t too late, they have 4 days left to roll Phil Goff. These polls don’t cover the insane attack on Sir Peter Leitch by two Labour MPs either.

Pedro Gower coins Nationals poll driven pragmatism as “Joycification” int he latest Metro Magazinr. What he does not do is go into how Steven Joyce is quietly killing off National by refusing to engage on the electoral referendum.

Rather than writing hagiographies of Joyce, journalists should be asking the same questions this blog has been asking. Under MMP who will National’s coalition partners be after 2014? Will National become the Natural Party of Opposition? How does Joyce expect to hold power in 2014 if ACT, United Future and the Maori Party all die?

It will be interest to see if Steven Joyce is warmly welcomed to the National Party conference in 2015 if National win 46% of the vote but end up in opposition because they have no coalition partners.

It is not often I agree with Deborah Coddington but today is an exception.is unusually sage this morning.

But let’s face it, National has no credible support partner right now. It can only rely on Peter Dunne. Who knows how many MPs the Maori Party will bring back to Parliament? Key has ruled out working with Hone Harawira and Winston Peters (even if NZ First does make it back).

Then there’s Act. Or, should I say, then there was Act.

Deborah highlights that National under MMP is in severe trouble after this election. They have no natural support parties. Yet their heads are so far in the sand they will not take a position on the electoral reform referendum. Their political foes have no such qualms and are even registered to spend up to $300,000 each telling us how they prefer New Zealand under the heel of MMP.