All on Red has¬†an interesting comment¬†about what is happening in Napier.
I do despair at the thought of Nash winning in Napier. How can Tremains winning margin be frittered away so quickly and into Nash’s camp? It seems odd. Surely Walford is not that bad.
Thoughts from the group please.
What is happening in Napier is Nashy is one of the few politicians in New Zealand is personally likeable and can reach out to middle New Zealand. He is one of the few in Labour that can actually raise funds (he has apparently raised more than Moira and Tim combined which is why Labour are broke).
Nash is strategically sound. He was blessed with an opponent in Chris Tremain who is not known for his intellect. Tremain supported amalgamation which people in Napier hate, and he was up against the most likeable politician in Labour.
In the two most recent elections the results are pretty staggering.
Fairbrother ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† 11,880
Majority ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† 9,018
Nash ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† 13,636
Majority ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† ¬† 3,701
So in three years Nash managed to take 5,317 of Tremain‚Äôs majority. This was in a year where Labour sank to its lowest ever poll numbers. ¬†¬† Read more »
These are the three biggest lies of the Hager book.
They cannot go with out calling them out.
The first big lie is that the PM’s department “hacked” the Labour party website. This is a lie and one repeated by the NZ Herald and John Armstrong this morning.
Hager’s allegations are many and varied. They are extremely serious. But one stands out. The allegation that one of John Key’s minions hacked into the Labour Party’s database is – to put it bluntly – the modern-day equivalent of the 1972 burglary of the Democratic Party’s national committee headquarters in the Watergate complex in Washington.
And everyone knows whose head rolled at the end of that saga.
This is a lie. The Labour party website is extremely well documented, by me at the time. The website was open to the world and anyone could access it. It was not ever hacked. Furthermore it was not the PM’s department that alerted me to the openness of the Labour party website…I had two sources, neither of which are from the PM’s department.
The second big lie is that PM and/or the PM’s office told me about Phil Goff’s briefing from the SIS. They did not. ¬† Read more »
Laila Harre has lived a charmed life in New Zealand politics.
Her track record in the cold light of day is completely destructive and dreadful but wonderfully so to the left and the Union movement. ¬†Apparently she was the “best MP Labour never had”. ¬†Now she is nothing but their worst nightmare.
In 2014 her comic sideshow is¬†crowding out valuable media time for Labour this election. Chris Hipkins, Kelvin Davis and Stuart Nash are over it. There’s no way David Cunliffe would be too happy either. ¬†He just has to stop apologising for being a man and stand up and be one and stop the far leftie sideshow attaching to him like a festering scab.
Harre uses¬†her faux ditziness and feminine charms to tame the men of the left and bring the men of the right to believing “oh she’s just lovely that Laila it’s (insert male unionist/far leftie) we have to worry about”. ¬† This veneer is wearing thin.
There’s one thing about the far left that I find disgusting more than anything else. Their sanctimonious claims they care and have better morals than anyone on the far right.
Their entire platform is to paint us as the nasty aggressive win at all cost ones. This may of course be true but there’s something about being a right winger that I am extremely proud of.
Our political honesty.
I am involved in everything in life to win and for us to win the far left have to lose which means relentlessly pounding them and their crippled 3 legged high horse they ride in on. ¬† I don’t believe that the hapless poor the far left need to keep poor to retain¬†their voter base, have a divine right to keep reproducing or even keep their kids when they’re never going to be able to get themselves out of their own self-fulfilling poverty trap. I believe that adults who keep making bad choices in their lives because they are terminally stupid and know the taxpayer will bail them out need a lot more stick than more carrots. ¬†I won’t change my mind in a discussion with anyone on these matters.
This honesty has been with the far left in New Zealand as well in opposing this view. ¬†Until now they have¬†practiced what they preach. ¬†Sue Bradford is the only exception as she stuck to her ideological purity and told the man and his money to shove it.
Kim Dotcom has done us on the right a huge favour in buying busloads¬†of the far left movement and making them his army of recreational playthings for a few months. ¬†Dotcom has proven just how bad¬†these nasty, filthy, sanctimonious envy-driven¬†liars¬†on the far left actually are.
And there’s nothing worse than a liar. Because people who lie are arrogant enough to believe everyone around them is stupid enough to believe their lies.
Imagine even the centrist Young Nats producing a video with a baying crowd chanting “Fuck Laila Harre” as John Key stood on stage whooping it up like a bloated lump¬†of gangster white trash for the camera? For a starter Key and Sean Topham would be subject to a police complaint and talk of¬† a private prosecution. Harre would have extra security on her cushy middle class existence¬†as she would perceive it a threat on hers and her family’s safety. She would be on Campbell Live blubbing it up for the cameras as sugar Daddy Kim Dotcom (and that is what he is) would use some of his hidden fortune to go buy her a nice new outfit from Smith and Caughey to cheer her up. They would also without a shadow of a doubt claim the GCSB is watching them and it’s all the fault of the Jews as they invoked a Free Hamas chant and burned a flag or two. That’s what the far left do in their spare time. ¬†And ¬†while his army are out campaigning for him to stay in New Zealand, ¬†sugar Daddy¬†Kim makes jokes on twitter about killing prostitutes.
Harre¬†has always suffered from an extreme case of passive aggressive victim behaviour. Anytime she’s felt threatened she’s defaulted to the child like “the big kids are picking on me” defence¬†as a form of attack¬†to gain sympathy as a lot of outwardly demure but inwardly rat cunning women do. Until now she’s been off limits to a good schellacking by the right. In the most part¬†because Matthew Hooton remains under her spell.
Harre’s failure to distance herself from a revolting video shot for the Internet Party and her laughing off of Kim Dotcom’s offensive tweets and behaviour means all gloves are off.
Up until taking Dotcom’s cash in an obviously orchestrated jack up to help the far left in New Zealand sanctioned ¬†no doubt by Matt McCarten, himself a classic passive aggressive “woe is us” far leftie, Harre at least had some dignity and respect.
That respect included it from the polar opposite¬†¬†extremes. The far left and right
have had a begrudging respect for each other due to the lack of love for populist half measures. The respect comes from the ideological purity both sides are were proud of. The purity Chris Trotter will bore his younger students with ad nauseum over a cheap beer. This respect of ideological purity was the only way the 17 year old me could sit through a Jane Kelsey paper and enjoy it. Knowing she actually practices the utter repressive b.s she preaches made it easier. It is the only way Chris Trotter can sit in a room with a true right winger.
As much as I would never support a new tax in my life proposed by a Unionist or indeed Unions at all and view all taxation as theft I would never expect Harre to take money and support from a convicted criminal multi-millionaire German who bought and embellished his way into New Zealand. This is the man who not only employs unskilled foreign labour over local unskilled labour many whom would be Mana voters, he has the audacity not to pay the foreigners on time and flaunts his wealth around them as they stay unpaid. Harre has then been bought and paid for to¬†tour the country at his side while inciting kids to classlessly chant “Fuck John Key”.
Harre¬†is a bit too caught up in her new Star Trek world to know it but Kim Dotcom is doing that to her and quite nicely f***ing¬†her respect among everyone in the public but her truest of believer right now.
In many ways you just want her to continue, it will only help National’s vote.
Matthew Hooton has written an article in the NBR talking about who could be the next Labour leader.
He speaks of centrist candidates Stu Nash and Kel Davis as potential leaders if they can win their seats.
Depending on how their electorate races go, two names would emerge: Labour‚Äôs candidates in Te Tai Tokerau and Napier, Kelvin Davis and Stuart Nash.
Both live and breath Labour values but are reasonably centralist, in the John Key mode.¬† Both have played for the parliamentary rugby team, drink beer out of the bottle, are married to women and have kids.
If Mr Davis makes it back to parliament, he will have defeated the formidable Hone Harawira and kept Ms Harre, Ms Sykes and Mr Minto out.¬† By working hard at the local level over two elections, Mr Nash will have overturned National‚Äôs massive 9108 majority from 2008.¬† Both will have done it by getting National voters to tick red.
In Mr Davis‚Äô case, he would become the first Maori leader of a major political party.¬† For Mr Nash, he would be seeking election as prime minister in 2017, exactly 60 years after the last Nash, his grandfather Walter, took Labour to power.¬† Moreover, in Labour‚Äôs centenary year, the grandson of Michael Joseph Savage‚Äôs finance minister would be leading the party towards power.¬† If they worked together, a Nash/Davis ticket would be a dream team.
The Internet Party is in trouble for a video placed on its official YouTube channel.
“Are you ready for a revolution? Are you ready to take down the Government?,” the Mega founder asks the crowd.
“Are you ready to extradite John Key?”
The next shot shows the crowd with right arms raised chanting “F*** John Key”.
One lone voice in the wilderness ( my face of the day ) Otago University lecturer and political commentator Bryce Edwards thinks that the Video is a good thing.
Kelvin Davis is more honourable than Hone Harawira.
I’ll prove it but first we need to look at Andrea Vance’s article about the whole Hone vs Kelvin issue.
Is there a dirty deal underway in Te Tai Tokerau?¬† Short answer: no.
Emails leaked to TV3 at the weekend purportedly show Labour HQ had warned Te Tai Tokerau candidate Kelvin Davis off a smear campaign against Mana leader Hone Harawira.
Political watchers jumped to the conclusion that that meant Labour campaign managers wanted potential coalition partner Harawira to win the seat.
A victory would coat-tail in Laila Harre and some other Internet-Mana candidates, boosting left-bloc numbers.
This theory falls down because the emails do not explicitly say any such thing.
The emails don’t prove there is a deal Andrea, I’ll give you that….but it is an indicator that there is a deal in place, just the same as no signage in the electorate and no Labour people campaigning anywhere on behalf of Kelvin Davis says the same.
Labour people who have worked in the electorate for decades are telling me there is a deal, party apparatchiks are saying the same thing. There is a deal and until David Cunliffe categorically rules out any such deal with Hone Harawira, Man, Internet Mana or any of the iterations that could exists to prop up, support, or anything else then there is a deal in place and everything else is weasel words from one of the biggest weasels in parliament.
Instead, they are consistent with Labour’s campaign message: Vote Positive. Leader David Cunliffe made a ”sledge pledge” last month and has repeatedly stood by his assertion that the public dislike negative campaigning.
If there is anything to be drawn from these emails, it should be the timing of the leak, rather than their content. ¬†This is right-wing mischief making. ¬†¬† Read more »
Matthew Hooton looks into the problems besetting Labour with their dance of the veils with his potential coalition partners.
David Cunliffe can only become prime minister if Hone Harawira wins Te Tai Tokerau and brings Laila Harr√©, Annette Sykes and John Minto into parliament with him.
At the same time, any overt endorsement by Mr Cunliffe of Mr Harawira would do more harm to Labour‚Äôs still-strong election chances than what John Key feared would happen to National were he to endorse Colin Craig‚Äôs Conservative Party.
These brute facts explain the extraordinary manoeuvring that is underway in Mr Harawira‚Äôs electorate, which spans Cape Reinga to West Auckland.
Labour‚Äôs candidate is Kelvin Davis, who has a number of disabilities in the eyes of modern Labour: male and not ashamed of it; married to a woman; three kids all to the same woman; assistant principal at a Catholic school; plays rugby; drinks beer; lives in the provinces; believes in work not welfare.
Unsurprisingly, he was given a place on Labour‚Äôs list that makes it impossible for him to return to parliament unless Labour wins an unlikely 29% of the party vote.
Kelvin Davis is in the one position many in politics hope their opposition is never in…that of having nothing to lose. If he doesn’t win Te Tai Tokerau then his political career is over, therefore he will use any and all tactics open to him.
As first revealed exclusively in the¬†NBR last week, Mr Davis and his supporters are determined to win Te Tai Tokerau from someone whose angry and grievance-based politics they regard as anathema to Maori economic development.
They wanted to launch an innovative web-based campaign targeting Mr Harawira‚Äôs relationship with Kim Dotcom in order to raise funds for the election, but were thwarted by Labour‚Äôs general secretary, the far-left Tim Barnett, who argues both Labour and Internet-Mana are part of the same progressive movement.
Perhaps out of desperation, some of Mr Davis‚Äô supporters even approached me, asking if I would organise a corporate fundraising lunch for their candidate, after hearing of a similar event for another Labour candidate I was associated with.
That was also put a stop to.
Labour continues to be mired in¬†the¬†20s, the Greens are slowly climbing towards the 20s…hoovering up the disaffected hard left of Labour as The Cunliffe continues to disappoint.
Could convergence become an issue, where the Greens supplant Labour as the largest opposition party.
Matthew Hooton discussed that in his column at the NBR:
Don‚Äôt rule out convergence.
Labour‚Äôs disastrous decision to replace David Shearer with David Cunliffe and spend nearly a year swinging to the far left has inevitably crashed its poll numbers.
The recent ploy to¬†swing back to the centreappears to have come too late. The days are long gone when Mr Shearer had Labour polling around the mid-30s and, with the Greens in the low teens, well on track to become prime minister. In both the major polls released this week,¬†Roy Morgan¬†and¬†Fairfax-Ipsos, Mr Cunliffe‚Äôs Labour was languishing under 25%.
Both polls were taken mainly after Mr Cunliffe‚Äôs apology for being a man, but also after his major¬†education announcements. Despite Labour strategists privately claiming their internal polling responded favourably, the public polls suggest that the promises of cheap laptops and slightly smaller classes have failed to capture the imagination of middle-class parents.
Worse for Labour, while there may be good evidence the polls tend to¬†overestimate National‚Äôs support by around¬†5%¬†at the expense of smaller parties, the trend line for Labour in at least the last two elections has almost exactly predicted its actual party vote.
In 2011, Phil Goff led Labour to its worst result since 1925. If Mr Cunliffe‚Äôs tilt to the centre continues to fail, he risks taking New Zealand‚Äôs oldest political party below the 24% it won in the first two elections following the World War I.
Poll numbers also have an element of self-fulfilling prophecy. People don‚Äôt like voting for losers. As the election nears, Labour risks losing a crucial few further points to the Greens, Internet-Mana and NZ First.
Bill English currently wears the electoral dunce cap in the New Zealand parliament, having led National to its 21% debacle in 2002. The finance minister may dare to hope he might finally get to pass it on to Mr Cunliffe after September 20.
For all this, the risk of a change of government remains high. ¬† Read more »
With both Matthew Hooton and Fran O’Sullivan picking up a step tot eh right by The Cunliffe, it reminded me of the time less classic from The Rocky Horror Picture Show “The Time Warp”.
Of course it is apt with The Cunliffe also apologising for being a man.
I’ve renamed the song “The Cunliffe”
(Riff Raff) It’s astounding
Time is fleeting
Madness takes it’s toll…
(Riff Raff) But listen closely…
(Magenta) Not for very much longer…
(Riff Raff) I’ve got to keep control.
I remember doing The Cunliffe.
Drinking those moments when
The blackness would hit me.
(Riff Raff & Magenta) And the void would be calling. ¬†¬† Read more »