Politics

The Huddle at 1740

newstalkzb

The Huddle is back tonight, with Josie Pagani and me on Larry Williams’ show.

Our single topic is the election.

Should be fun.

You can listen online or through usual methods.

I will post the audio tomorrow morning.

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A leadership spill is not Cunliffe’s call to make

David Cunliffe thinks he can orchestrate the process to initiate a leadership ballot and primary race.

He is wrong.

For someone who has a lawyer for a missus it is somewhat strange that he has taken a postured approach to saving his doomed leadership.

Labour’s leadership is governed by an appendix in the constitution. This is the relevant section.

Election of the Leader of the Parliamentary Labour Party – the Leader must be a Member of Parliament; an election for the position of Leader is triggered if there is a vacancy, or if requested by a simple majority of Caucus (at any time), or if the Leader fails to obtain the support of 60% plus 1 of the Caucus membership in a vote held within three months after a General Election.

What this means is Cunliffe has no choice but to put the leadership up for a contest unless he can get 60%+1 to vote for him. That vote will be taken when caucus says it will be taken and not on the timetable of a losing leader.   Read more »

Paid to Win – Simon Lusk’s Guide to Campaigning

Simon Lusk is one of the few full time campaigners in New Zealand who also wins. He is releasing a campaign book chapter by chapter on Amazon.

The first chapter is Start with a Good Candidate….a good chapter for the Labour party to start with.

Paid to Win: A Campaign Professional’s Guide to Winning New Zealand Campaigns

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Patrick Gower on the election

When Patrick Gower isn’t taking stories from me, he is taking stolen materials from hackers.

But today he writes in the Herald on Sunday about the election.

Try to make sense of this: it looks like John Key can’t lose an election that he can’t win.

Yes, Key in an unloseable position in an unwinnable race.

The polls show the left can’t win – they can’t get the numbers together to get a feasible majority no matter what.

The right can get the numbers together to win – but not without some serious compromises. It looks as if it’s not a matter of whether Key wins, but more how he wins.

For several years now the opposition have mocked John Key, along with the pundits like Gower, claiming he didn’t have support partners.

Now it looks like National has plenty of support partners…so many that National may be able to form a government easily with at least 60% of the vote.

Things aren’t so flash on the other side.

Let’s start with the death throes of the left.

The Greens’ tricky, cynical and reheated claim they could work with National was probably the final gasp of the left bloc this week.

It was just Greenwash, really: Russel Norman and Metiria Turei hate Key and everything he stands for, and have spent the past three years bashing National.

John Key is wrong, he should support an ICAC

The Maori party, along with Winston Peters, have a policy for the establishment of an Independent Commission Against Corruption.

We have seen how these operate in Australia, and there are now calls for a Federal Independent Commission Against Corruption, such is the level of corruption shown across Australia, mostly between union and Labour party officials.

Strangely John  Key doesn’t see a need for it.

The Maori Party’s desire to scrap the police watchdog and other agencies, in favour of an Anti-Corruption Commission, doesn’t interest John Key.

It wants the Independent Police Conduct Authority merged with the Serious Fraud Office, and judicial and parliamentary bodies, as part of an overhaul of the justice system.   Read more »

More Dodgy Polling from the Conservatives

Last election Colin Craig reckoned that his polling showed him a long way ahead of National’s Mark Mitchell. Colin got hammered with Mark winning a majority of 12,222.

Colin’s dodgy polling was essentially push polling, and gave him terrible results.

Questions included both unprompted and prompted aspects, and sought to differentiate the responses regarding party voting intentions from candidate voting intentions.  Relevant questions  included the following, in order of being asked:

1. For your party vote, have you decided who you will be voting for in the election?

2. Which party do you currently intend to vote for?

3. Have you heard of the Conservative Party?

4. Have you heard of Colin Craig?

Participants were read a brief preamble to provide context: ‘Colin Craig is the leader of the Conservative Party of New Zealand. In the Auckland mayoral election, Colin came third with over 40,000 votes’. Then asked…

5. If Colin were to stand in as a candidate in your electorate, what would be the likelihood that you would vote for Colin to be your member of parliament (on a scale of 1 = definitely; 2 = likely; 3 = neutral; 4 = unlikely and 5 = very unlikely)?

Those who identified they were neutral or unlikely to vote for Craig were asked:

6 . Who do you intend to vote for?

There were additional questions relating specifically to how awareness was generated, as well as detailed policy questions. I’ve been advised these questions are relevant to the Conservative Party’s campaign strategy, and so details can’t be released.

To say the least I was gobsmacked with this response. Not only did it confirm the conflict of interest but it exposed the highly suspect methodology used by Research First in obtaining what they euphemistically describe as a “result”.

This is nothing short of a rigged poll. They lead respondents down a garden path and even prompted them as to what the required response should have been with poor questions. The poll surely is statistically invalid, in point of fact it is complete rubbish.

Now Colin Craig’s dodgy internal polls are telling him that Garth McVicar is winning in Napier.  Read more »

Some more reader questions about Capital Gains Tax

I doubt Labour can answer these, after 4 years they still have no idea what he shape of the CGT will look like.

Hi Cam & All

I have a few questions regarding CGT that I don’t think I’ve seen raised, and which certainly don’t seem to have been put to Cunliffe:

What adjustment will be made to the selling value of a property due to inflation? In other words, this tax fails to take into account inflationary pressures, and is, in effect, a tax on inflationary gains (which, as we all know, is NOT a capital gain in the real sense of the term).

Another thing that is not taken into account is the real cost of purchase. Most people buy a house using a mortgage. The real cost of the house (purchase price + interest) is much higher than the actual value of the house when purchased. Will this be taken into account when determining any capital gain?     Read more »

Greens busted playing dirty politics

The Greens have been busted stealing people’s email addresses and using them to astroturf support in submission to ECan.

What was that citizens initiated referendum for again? That’s right it was a database exercise done by taxpayer funded staff to further subvert democracy, it’s the Greens so the ends justify the means as they do it for a higher cause…the planet.

The Green Party has been accused of “subverting the democratic process” by lobbying Environment Canterbury (ECan) on behalf of individuals without their knowledge.

Four people were surprised to receive emails from ECan thanking them for their submission on the region’s proposed bus changes when they had not submitted.

A further 20 submissions, of the 165 submissions sent in by the Greens, were found to have incorrect email addresses.

ECan received 2357 submissions for its proposed bus changes.

All submissions from the Greens were a standard response asking for more investment in public transport and more services for elderly.

Emails given to The Press by ECan, with personal information removed, showed people were unimpressed.

“I nevet [sic] sent this email! How did this happen?” one said.

“I actually didn’t give permission for the Green Party to send that submission on my behalf,” another said.

Another questioned the ethics of the practice.

“It does not accurately represent my thoughts . . . I’m not sure I agree ethically with this practice.”

Read more »

Crime drops in Chicago…you’ll never guess why

Crime has dropped dramatically in Chicago.

What has caused this?

Is it better welfare payments to the poor? Nope.

What about increased resources to Police? Nope.

What then?

Gun rights activists have often held up Chicago as an example of the failures of gun control. The city has historically had some of the strictest laws against gun ownership while also suffering under some of the worst crime rates in the US. In 2012, Chicago surpassed New York as America’s murder capital. However, after the US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit struck down Illinois’ ban on concealed carry in December of 2012, a concealed carry program was implemented in the state this year, finally and for the first time allowing law-abiding Chicago residents to arm themselves in public against the city’s seemingly-perpetual crime wave.

According to The Washington Times, now that citizens in Chicago can legally defend themselves, the city’s historically disastrous crime rates have begun to plummet precipitously. Police department crime statistics note that, in the first quarter of 2014, the homicide rate in Chicago has dropped to a 56-year low. In 2014 so far, burglaries are down by 20%, auto theft rates have dropped by 26%, and robberies leading to arrests are down by 20%.

The Chicago Police Department wasted no time in declaring victory and claiming credit for the drop in crime, but Illinois State Rifle Association executive director Richard Pearson told The Washington Times, “The police department hasn’t changed a single tactic — they haven’t announced a shift in policy or of course — and yet you have these incredible numbers.” He feels that the drop in crime can at least in part be attributed to the implementation of concealed carry in Illinois. Said Pearson, “It isn’t any coincidence crime rates started to go down when concealed carry was permitted. Just the idea that the criminals don’t know who’s armed and who isn’t has a deterrence effect.”

Read more »

Playing politics like Fiji plays rugby

I am with a group of 9 overseas bloggers and journalists here in Israel and obviously people are inquisitive, especially when you leave organised events to go do television interviews, so they Google.

Nicky Hager would probably call that some sort of Zionist conspiracy.

Nonetheless they Google and so are asking a few questions about what it is like to be involved in political debate in New Zealand.

One blogger, Anton Diaz, from the Philippines, plus a couple of other Filipinos expressed to me how New Zealand seems to know nothing about dirty politics, after all, no one  gets shot in drive by shootings for daring to express a different political opinion. This is apparently what happens in their country. In fact people get shot for much, much less.

So they asked why I play so hard. Those are my words, paraphrasing an interesting discussion over lunch.

I thought about that.

I play politics like Fiji or Samoa plays rugby.   Read more »