National Party

Roy Morgan delivers a nice easter present for National

After yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll perhaps Labour might just start realising that no one cares about their silly pursuit of Judith Collins and voters simply believe that they are unfit to govern.

The poll delivers a shock for Labour, this is their favoured indicator, and proves the lie that Labour’s own internal polling is showing them at 34%.

Playing the nasty and not focussing on policies that matter to Kiwi voters is really starting to hurt them. But they are now past the point of no return for David Cunliffe and have to stick it out with a naff leader that no one likes or no one believes.

When you add on these results to the dramatic boundary changes you are going to see Labour MPs disappear back to their electorates in an attempt to shore up their own support. Watch as Ruth Dyson, Clayton Cosgrove and a number of other MPs spend considerably more time in their electorates than in Wellington.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large jump in support for National (48.5%, up 5.5%) now with its largest lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, down 5%) since July 2013 as New Zealanders celebrated the visit of Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).  Read more »

Key is “a twenty-first century Holyoake” – Chris Trotter

Chris Trotter has written a very good post about why he thinks John Key may well go on to become NZ longest serving Prime Minister…but for the foibles of MMP.

IN HIS MEMORABLE holiday-home encounter with the host of Campbell Live, the Prime Minister, John Key, did not rule out running for a fourth term. Were he to be successful, the long-standing record of Sir Keith Holyoake (11 years and 2 months) would be surpassed and the title of longest-serving National Party Prime Minister would pass to the incumbent. How tempting it would then be for John Key to set his sights on “King Dick’s” (Prime Minister Richard John Seddon’s) crown of 13 years and 2 months. Just imagine that – a fifth term! By then the youthful Jacinda Ardern would be 41 years old!

Some will dismiss Key’s musings as yet another example of his celebrated political bravado. But there is another message to be drawn from his speculations concerning a fourth (or even a fifth) term. The Prime Minister’s suggestion that he and the National Party are good for another two or three election wins may also be read as his pledge to the electorate that any government he leads will be moderate and restrained in its policies.

Sir Keith Holyoake could not have governed New Zealand from November 1960 until February 1972 as anything other than a consensus-seeking prime minister. By indicating that he is not adverse to such a lengthy term of office, John Key is signalling to us that he, too, is a consensus politician.  Read more »

Why is National so useless at selections?

Party President Peter “Dopey” Goodfellow needs to be held to account for the tardy selection process that means National is running seriously late with their selections.

Good candidates on the ground lift the all important party vote, yet there are some seats that havent even got a date for selection.

Electorate

Nominations Open
Nominations Close

Maungakiekie**

12th April
28th April

Wigram

15th April
30th April

Dunedin South

19th April
2nd May   Read more »

Cover up under Simon Bridges watch – Part One

In the posts about whether Simon Bridges should be considered a future National Party leader, I’ve blogged about concerns flowing into the tip-line from party supporters.

It’s Bridges cuddling of dodgy unions that most rankles. This may explain why he’s not showing the stones needed to see through the Employment Relations Amendment Bill – a bill the left hate with a passion.

Remember, Bridges told Parliament “the Government wants to ensure that employers have the freedom to complete and expand”.

While the rank and file liked the sound of that, by all accounts his union-friendly officials in MBIE were less than impressed.

These MBIE officials really don’t care for Bridges and are hedging bets that he won’t be Minister of Labour after 20 September.

It may also explain why his MBIE officials are keeping him in the dark about a little mess that shows they’ve been ignoring the Government’s own legislation.

It’s always the little things that upset the apple-cart, and while innocuous to most, little niggles tend to point to larger problems.

Thanks to an eagle-eyed reader, the question now being asked is who’s in control of MBIE’s (therefore the Governments) procurement processes? This little attempt by MBIE at a cover up deserves some sunlight.  Here’s part one.

It concerns a GETS RFP #448 for cleaning at 15 Stout Street, Wellington. It also mentions our friends at the cartel like Building Service Contractors (BSC).   Read more »

Is Simon Bridges really a future National leader? Ctd

Simon Bridges has always had the look of someone who thinks he will become Prime Minister almost by default.

He has a few things going for him like a safe seat and a reasonable media presence, but he looks like he is more of a Bill English, David Shearer or David Cunliffe type leader than a John Key or a Helen Clark.

What happened to English, Shearer and Cunliffe is they thought they could do well in the polls through natural talent, not through hard work and building up their party and people to make sure they could win. Like English, Shearer and Cunliffe, Simon Bridges is doing little build up his own caucus, or the National Party or the vitally important donor base.   Read more »

Is Simon Bridges really a future National leader? Ctd

If there’s one thing a Prime Minister has to be recognised for, it is being on top of their portfolios.

Helen Clark and Heather Simpson were all over ministerial portfolios like a rash. John Key is likewise at the top of the game, and while preferring a more managerial style, he certainly expects his Ministers to deliver on the workload expected of someone earning over $260,000 a year.

Leadership candidates need that sort of reputation to come through strongly right from the start.

In this ongoing series, we explore the push to have Simon Bridges positioned as a future leader of the National Party, and look at some of the criticisms coming through about Bridges, including the view that he’s captured by officials and close to the unions.

Let’s put aside for the moment the 200,000 acres of parkland that’s now got the Green Taliban’s puppet-masters Greenpeace calling for his sacking.   Read more »

Is Simon Bridges really a future National leader? Ctd

The wheels are coming off Simon Bridges’ campaign to be the next leader of the National Party.

Just when Bridges was getting over that shocker interview with John Campbell, he goes and cocks it up last week.

As a result, TV3’s Paddy Gower gives Bridges a right bollocking, wondering how he could forget, or not know, about a 200,000 hectare DOC park being part of an oil and gas exploration permit.

Paddy called it one of the biggest political “brain-fades” seen in a very long time. More telling though was Paddy labelling Bridges a liability.

image001-1 Read more »

Cunliffe continues to lie over capital gains tax

David Cunliffe just can’t help himself, again telling mis-truths over capital gains tax.

A Labour led government would impose a capital gains tax of 15% on realised gains from investment property. He says the family home would be exempt, Labour leader David Cunliffe told TVNZ’s Q+A programme this morning.

“I’m comfortable with that because speculators are driving this market, and to make matters worse, according to the BNZ and Real Estate Institute about 12% of speculative house buyers, all house buyers last year in Auckland came from non-resident foreigners.  Non-resident foreigners who have access to cheap finance are driving up the price of homes in New Zealand, so young Kiwis can’t get into their own homes.” Mr Cunliffe said.

When questioned on why a capital gains tax isn’t working in Australia, Mr Cunliffe said, “The problem would be worse if they didn’t have it.”  Read more »

Trotter: ‘the phrase “Labour/Greens government” does not pass the plausibility test’

Chris Trotter explains why David Cunliffe has pushed the toxic Greens out into the cold.

The answer, I believe, is to be found in the voters Labour’s campaign strategists (most particularly the political scientist and polling specialist, Rob Salmond) have identified as the primary target of Labour’s election campaign. These are not the legendary “missing million” who declined to cast a ballot three years ago, but a much more manageable group of around 300,000 men and women who have voted for Labour in the past (2005, 2008) but who, for a whole host of reasons, sat out the General Election of 2011.

Salmond’s argument is that these voters can be readily “re-activated” if Labour presents them with a plausible pitch for their support. The key-word there is “plausible”, and outside Labour-held electorates in the main centres there is every reason to believe that the phrase “Labour/Greens government” does not pass the plausibility test.

The evidence for this comes, paradoxically, from the National Party. Simon Bridges’ ridiculous comments about the 50-odd mining permits issued on Russel Norman’s watch is only the most extreme example of what is obviously an agreed Government strategy to conflate Labour and the Greens into a single, politically extreme, electoral bogeyman. David Farrar’s polls and Crosby-Textor’s focus-groups have clearly thrown up a powerful negative reaction to the idea of Labour joining forces with the Greens. So much so that National is doing everything within its power to imbed the idea deep in the electorate’s psyche.

And, if National’s voter research is picking up this negative anti-Green vibe, how long can it be before Labour’s own pollster, UMR, and its focus-group convenors start detecting similar sentiments in their own samplings? And if they do, is it really credible to suggest that Labour should simply ignore them? If the party’s whole electoral strategy is based on persuading those 300,000 former Labour voters to return to the fold, and the Labour/Greens proposition is going to make that less likely, then what possible motive would Labour have for accepting the Greens’ invitation?  Read more »

National’s renewal continues as Tau Henare says E noho rā

Tau Henare has announced his  retirement from politics.

And Stuff reports:

Henare was first elected to Parliament in 1993 elections for New Zealand First in the former Northern Maori electorate.

He is currently chair of the Maori Affairs select committee and a member of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade committee.

This morning, Henare did not deny suggestions his hand was forced by the likelihood of him receiving a low list ranking going into the September election.

He told RadioLive he expected his list ranking in a National Party reshuffle would be “more than 100″.

Henare said it was his own decision and he was happy about it.

“Most probably, it doesn’t really matter. To me the decisions been made and I’m very very comfortable and relaxed about it,” he said.  Read more »