National

via tangatawhenua.com

NBR calls it like it sees it

There is another option available to Mr Key if Mr Dunne throws in the towel, because right now he would have his best chance of winning a snap election and governing on his own.

Simply put, while Mr Key is still able to raise $250,000 from a single dinner and auction, Labour has no money.  So broke has it become, it would need to use much of its broadcasting allocation money on production whereas National could put every dollar into purchasing advertising slots.

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TV3 News reports

The latest 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Prime Minister John Key has bounced back and, if an election was held today, National could govern alone.

The last poll showed Labour Party leader David Shearer and the left could govern, but Mr Key has seized back the voters he lost as last year went to the pack for him.

National is on 51.4 percent – that’s up 4 percent. That’s come off Labour, down two to 32.6 percent. And the Greens are also down two points as well, to 10.8 percent. New Zealand First Party leader Winston Peters is on about 3.4 percent.

When is National going to spend some of this political capital to drive through some change before it is too late?   Read more »

The latest Herald Digipoll is out:

• National  - 54.4 per cent
• Labour  - 33.7 per cent
• ACT - 1.7 per cent up from 0.9…nearly 100% increase in support
• Greens – 5.5 per cent
• Winston First 2.7 per cent

Mana didn’t register, expect Bomber to now start abusing the Herald for their polling because his beloved Mana party wasn’t mentioned.

As Farrar notes in his Herald column (still has it despite Bombers rude emails):

So one would expect the only debate to be about how much of a bounce this budget would give Labour – how much would the gap between National and Labour close.

The gap in the last Herald-Digipoll was 15%. Five months ago (before National announced its privatisation plans) National was at 52% and Labour at 37%.

In today’s Herald, the first post Budget poll is revealed, and it shows the opposite to what most would expect – the gap has increased from 15% to 21%. National has gone up 2% and Labour has dropped 4%.

Labour’s budget response was pathetic. I said on radio Live yesterday that the Greens were now the default opposition, despite their numbers. Only they provided a decent counter to the budget. Labour are becoming more and more irrelevant and to prove it we have Labour’s campaign manager releasing the latest stunt to claw back vital poll ratings in the lead up to the election.

Instead of focussing on what matters to Kiwis he is trying to have a pissing contest with a right wing blogger.

Phil Goff said yesterday that the 60% of Kiwis opposed to state asset sales had yet to flow through to the polls, despite that number coming from the same poll that saw his party drop in support and John Key’s national increase in support.

Worse he has released the only good part of his tax policy, the tax free threshold and is yet to release the bad parts of the policy, the tax increases required to pay for it.

Roy Morgan have released their latest poll and that shows something the pinkos weren’t counting on. That the last Roy Morgan was in fact a rogue and not the turning point.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has risen to 55% (up 2%). Support for Prime Minister Key’s National Party is 52.5% (up 3.5%), the Maori Party 1.5% (down 1.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for Opposition Parties has fallen to 45% (down 2%) with the Labour Party 33% (down 1.5%), Greens 8.5%, (up 2%), New Zealand First 2.5% (down 3%) and others 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would be returned to Government.

The results aren’t looking good either for WRP, 65, POSMB. So much for his 10,000 response poll. BTW several pollsters I’ve spoken to (not Farrar) suggest that the bill for that would be in excess of $100,000, so it sounds like Winston has some more donors he can say he never got funds from.

Both One News and TV3 have their first polls of the year and there isn’t much good news for Labour.

This is terrible for Labour.

They have announced their flagship tax policy, the good bits anyway, with the first $5000 being tax free even for the most wealthy in society and it hasn’t made a dent at all in the polls. Worse, on Thursday 3News showed that 60% of Kiwis don’t like the idea of asset sales and yet in the same poll National’s standing is largely un-affected. This means that though they don’t like the idea of asset sales they also don’t like the idea of a Phil Goff led Labour. Phil Goff is yet to annouce the bad part of his tax policy, the tax increases to fund his tax giveaway.

Bizarrely also he comments in the 3 News poll that 60% of Kiwis are against asset sales and that will take time to flow through into the polls, forgetting that it was a poll that showed that, the same poll that give National a commanding lead.

3News also carries a story about Winston Raymond Peters, 65, pensioner of St Mary’s bay and he claims in the piece to have a poll of over 10,000 showing astonishing results far outside that of real, not imagined polling companies.

This party is being significantly supported now and it will grow from here on in,” he said.

According to Peters’ own polling, his support is higher still.

“Our best figures from an independent poll of 10,000 people put our support at 10.98 percent at the moment,” he said.

Good, i hope he keeps on deluding himself. We will be watching to see if WRP, 65, POSMB can deliver that increasing support. Reporters should call him on his bullshit and ask himevery time they see him what his internal polling is showing.

Meanwhile John Key sums up how the New Zealand electorate should treat this shyster, crook and corrupt politicians.

“I don’t trust him,” says Mr Key.

Neither do I. Remember a vote for WRP, 65, POSMB is a vote for Phil Goff.

By now readers are probably used to the neutral stance this blog takes to selection, trusting the delegates to make the right choice. The selection in Palmerston North is one of the most interesting, because it is the only provincial seat that is held by Labour. A veritable island of Red in an otherwise sea of blue.

The results in 2008 were a win to Labour on the Party Vote by 5 votes, and to Kings Old Boy Iain Lees-Galloway by 1,117.

Labour 14108 Iain Lees-Galloway 15977

National 14103 Malcolm Plimmer 14860

This means it will be one of the battle ground seats, and with Labour having few chances in provincial New Zealand outside of New Plymouth and Hamilton West they will be under huge pressure to hold it.

Word from Palmerston North is that Iain has been an ineffective MP, and doesn’t even know some the major employers. His tawdry affair with a stenographer has not helped him either, as provincial towns still gossip and cheating on your wife is not considered acceptable. It might be sort of OK in Napier but it isn’t in Palmerston North.

There are four seeking the National nomination. All have positive reputations and this blog will cover them as even handedly as possible tomorrow.

Yesterday saw the official campaign launch of National’s and the Jami-lee Ross’ campaign in Botany. Here is my video of John Key’s speech at the launch.

Michael Wood was still bleating about debates to reporters, when he was busily promoting a Botany debate on Facebook. Remember Michael has been telling anyone who would listen that Jami-lee Ross won’t front him in a debate, and yet, as he has known all along debates have been scheduled.

The reason Michael Wood is doing this, and been so defensive on this blog, is because it is now his election strategy.  I actually think I might owe Jami-Lee an apology for giving his opponent what he was so desperately after – any coverage whatsoever.

You see it’s now pretty obvious that Mike’s plan is to run a campaign of distractions, disruptions, and worst of all - lies.
Let’s recap:

1. First stunt was to follow John Key to a Greypower visit (outside of the electorate) then complain to the world that he didn’t talk about unemployment figures (which weren’t released until after the visit started).
2. Because no-one noticed that - the second tactic was to promote stories about no one wanting to debate him – despite knowing they’re scheduled (see above).
3. Third tactic was to employ an Asian MP, Raymond Huo, to make shit up.

So, why is this happening?

Because Mike’s been left to his own devices.

Andrew Little pulled the plug weeks ago, and then, astonishingly – Trevor Mallard revealed what the caring left really thinks about the people of Botany:

“I wouldn’t spend much…my gut reac­tion would be to treat it like Tau­ranga and for­get it.”

Worse still, that gets confirmed by the Greens who can’t even be organised enough to turn up.

But surely – the grand-daddy of them all has to be the “I can’t win”, so don’t worry Mt Roskill, you’re the place I call home - gaffe. When Melissa Lee capitulated like that the paid lap-bloggers at The Standard labelled the silly statement a major gaffe and played it up for weeks on end. Strangely they are silent of Michael Wood throwing in the towel so early in Botany. Instead they join in the “make shit up” tactics and repeat Michael Wood’s lies about debates.

Michael, it’s good to see that after all the elections you’ve lost as a professional Labour candidate and the years you’ve spent as a union lackey - you HAVE learned a few tricks.

One trick you haven’t learned Michael, is that when I call someone a liar I am on very firm ground. I was told by Clare Curran to put up, I was asked by you to prove my assertions that both you and Raymond Huo were liars and I have done that, with photos, and with screenshots from Facebook. The funny thing about all of this is that I got banned from Red Alert for telling the truth. The simple plain truth is that Labour’s candidate is all alone, no support, no strategy and has to resort to making shit up, flinging shit or just being annoying. One thing for certain is he isn’t serious about even trying because “Mt Roskill, you’re the he calls home”.

Early this morning my resident pinko troll mediatart made the following comment:

Steven Joyce is not interested in Rodney, but North Shore despite the misgivings of the Prime Minister who wants his master strategist to focus ion the whole country rather than just one seat. He has the president trying to scare away contenders so Steven can get selected unopposed. The other list MPs in Auckland are not strong enough to win selection in any seat, so don’t expect Melissa Lee, Jacqui Blue or Cam Calder to put their names forward anywhere other than where they are now.  The weakness of the candidates college which was largely dormant until late last year means there are few people coming through for selection that the public could get excited about.

Sometimes commenters can be very perspicacious, this is one reason why I like mediatart‘s” commentary….sometimes.

You know you are in big trouble on the left when even Brian Rudman slates your efforts.

Off the top of my head, it’s hard to recall a more pointless election contest than the March 5 Botany byelection. Particularly now that Labour candidate Michael Wood has thrown in the towel before the campaign has even begun and said he has no chance of winning.

No doubt he’s right. But in a democracy, that’s for the rest of us to think, and the candidate to vehemently refute, and to work his hardest to prove us wrong. Send that man a white feather now. And another to Labour Party president Andrew Little.

It was Mr Little who set the defeatist scene a week or so back by declaring, as he announced Mr Wood’s candidacy, that the South Auckland electorate of Botany was a safe National seat, “so we don’t expect to win”.

Rudman isn’t best pleased though I doubt he even knows where Botany is. Still he carrys on with the vitriol ast Labour and Wood in particular.

Despite that wet blanket of a tally ho, the candidate did his best to come out fighting on selection night, declaring his opposition to National’s asset sale plans.

He said: “I am determined to fight these plans and let the people of Botany know how they can be part of Labour’s campaign to oppose this ridiculous privatisation agenda.”

But a week later he pops up in a local newspaper across town to assure his supporters in Mt Roskill that his adventures in Botany are just a temporary folly and would not affect his role as a member of Puketapapa Local Board.

He told Central Leader readers that “Botany is a strong National seat that I’m not going to be able to win as a Labour candidate. It’s not going to be something that pulls me away from Mt Roskill.”

Reassuring for Roskillites, perhaps, but if I were a voter in Botany I’d be thinking, “If that guy has already decided he’s a loser, with nothing by way of policy in his back pocket that he thinks will change my mind, then why should I waste my vote and prove him wrong?”

Who am I to argue against the erudite and perspicacious Brian Rudman.

For Labour supporters in Botany the turn-off factor is likely to be particularly strong. They’ll be the ones expected to dip into their pockets, to distribute pamphlets and to generally talk him up. Yet on the other side of the city, he’s already told another group of supporters to relax, he’s going nowhere.

The obvious question is, why is the cash-strapped Labour Party even bothering, on the eve of an expensive general election campaign, to set itself up for a self-inflicted night of ritual humiliation? A resounding pratfall, made even worse, perhaps, thanks to the defeatism of those supposed to be beating the drums loudest.

Wow, he isn’t holding back, let’s enjoy some more.

Initially, Labour argued it would use the byelection to promote policies, issues and values and Mr Wood highlighted privatisation.

Mrs Wong’s travels seemed another obvious campaign issue.

Yet before the campaign proper even starts, Labour’s candidate and president are conceding defeat. It must be the strangest launch to an election campaign ever.

Yep sounds like Rudman is backing Jami-lee Ross for a win in Botany. Well done Brian.