New Zealand First

Labour’s favoured poll shows the Little experiment has faltered

Labour has dropped below 30% in Labour’s favoured poll, the Roy Morgan. Labour loves this poll, consistently claiming it is the most accurate.

Little’s tactical plan¬†in helping Winston Peters take Northland is increasingly looking like a strategic blunder.

Labour were cock-a-hoop at National losing Northland, but they won’t be now with Winston Peters gaining legitimacy as the real opposition leader.

Today‚Äôs New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a slight weakening for the National-led Government 48% (down 1.5% since March), but retaining a strong lead over a potential Labour/Greens Coalition 41% (down 1%). The beneficiaries of this loss of support was New Zealand First 8.5% (up 2.5%) following on from NZ First Leader Winston Peter’s successful campaign at the recent Northland by-election according to today‚Äôs Roy Morgan New Zealand April poll.

Support for National has dropped to 45.5% (down 1%) and support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners the Maori Party has dropped to 1.5% (down 0.5%). Support for Key’s other two Coalition partners is unchanged: Act NZ 1% (unchanged) and United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).

Despite the rise in support for the Opposition Parties on the whole, Labour‚Äôs decision to advise Labour supporters to vote for NZ First Leader Winston Peters in the Northland by-election appears to have dented Labour support ‚Äď now at 27.5% (down 3.5%). In contrast, support has increased strongly for both the Greens 13.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 8.5% (up 2.5%).

For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 0.5%).

roymorgan-april2015

Labour strategists won’t be liking this.

 

– Roy Morgan

Real voter winning suggestion from Young Labour

Yesterday I pointed out that Labour has a propensity to appeal to the margin and not to the middle of New Zealand.

Here is yet another example…Young Labour proposing that Te Reo be compulsory in schools.

tereo-young-labour Read more »

One Green Gets the Problems they Face

A bunch of unelected MPs who do no constituency work are seeking the leadership of the Green Party. One of them actually gets it, and most importantly gets that the one man with the moral authority that comes from winning a seat, Winston Peters, is likely to be able to choose whether the Greens have any power in the next government.

Mr Shaw, who has a background in business, named climate change as his number one priority but said the Greens also had to continue strengthening the economic credibility built up by Dr Norman. ¬† Read more »

The benefits of foreign investment

There were campaigns trying to prevent Shanghai Pengxin from acquiring the Crafar farms. Politiciand from David Shearer and Phil Goff to Winston Peters interfered as well. Then there were the legal battles from people trying to prevent the sale of the decrepit Crafar farms to Chinese company Shanghai Pengxin.

Winston Peters also famously slurred their name in one presumably drunken rant in parliament.

But all the naysayers are being proved wrong as Shanghai Pengxin has literally plowed millions of dollars in to the farms to turn them from dogs to diamonds.

ONE OF the biggest achievements of the Shanghai Pengxin renovation of a former Crafar dairy farm near Hamilton is peace with the neighbours and community.

A while back, Jason¬†Colebourn who manages the Collins Rd property for Pengxin’s sharemilker Landcorp, says he wondered if the local customary wave was a one-fingered salute, so often did he get one when working on the farm whose environmental calamities helped spur the collapse of the 16-farm Crafar dairying empire six years ago.

Colebourn moved onto the farm one year into the receivership of the Crafar farm estate and for two more years until the sale to the Chinese company was finalised, the Collins Rd property would remain an eyesore.

Pengxin has bankrolled the Collins Rd farm resurrection for $1.72 million and counting.

Colebourn and his five staff have supplied the brains and brawn to turn what was by all accounts a train wreck into an operation which this season will produce 365,000kg milk solids and is  turning a profit for its owner.

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Will the real leader of the opposition please stand up

Today showed the difference between a truly gifted politician and an untalented union hack.

John Key let Nick Smith and Bill English, the men who managed to get National to 20.93% of the vote, slip the lead long enough to dream up some dumb shit about giving Maori water rights.

This is basically a free hit for any opposition politician, and anyone aspiring to be the leader of the opposition.

So what happens?

Cunning bastard and NZ First Leader Winston Peters makes the simple play and believing in taking free hits below the belt kicks Key square in the goolies.

National Ministers Bill English and Nick Smith have been holding negotiations behind closed doors with the powerful Iwi Leaders Group to carve up fresh water resources.

These discussions were forced on the Government once the Prime Minister, against the majority view, began privatising power companies whose only real asset is New Zealand’s water. Maori quickly demanded that if private interests could own our water why couldn’t they?

This is one more issue that arrogant National Ministers have blundered into. http://bit.ly/1aYP0gn

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Trotter on the effects of Northland on Labour and National

Chris Trotter has always been a keen observer of Winston Peters and in his blog he comments on what the victory in Northland means for Labour and for National.

To hold Northland will NZ First be required to veer to the Right ‚Äď thereby alienating the thousands of Labour supporters whose votes provided the foundation for Mr Peters‚Äô upset win?

Will the National Government, looking ahead to 2017 and beyond, begin to re-position itself as NZ First’s future coalition partner?

How will Mr Peters‚Äô Northland victory influence Labour‚Äôs political positioning ‚Äď especially its relationship with the Greens?

Good questions which Trotter goes some way to explaining.

Labour, if it is wise, will seize the opportunity provided by Mr Peters‚Äô victory to put even more distance between itself and the Greens. In his continuing effort to ‚Äúre-connect‚ÄĚ Labour with its traditional constituencies, Andrew Little must already have marked the numerous ideological affinities that draw non-National provincial voters towards one another. These are conservative people, whose personal morals and political values often place them at odds with the more ‚Äúprogressive‚ÄĚ voters of metropolitan New Zealand.

The extent to which Labour‚Äôs Northland voters defected to Mr Peters indicates that, at the very least, the NZ First leader‚Äôs political values presented no insurmountable barrier to Labour‚Äôs people following their own leader‚Äôs tactical advice. Indeed, just about all the insurmountable barriers to the re-connections Labour must make if it is to regain the status of a ‚Äú40 percent party‚ÄĚ have been raised in the cities ‚Äď not the provinces.

Even in the cities these obstacles persist. Labour’s traditional urban working-class supporters have more in common with their provincial brothers and sisters than many Labour Party activists are willing to admit.

Shunting-off their social revolutionaries to the Greens might decimate the ranks of Labour‚Äôs membership, but it could, equally, swell the ranks of those willing to vote for the party in 2017. Shorn of its radical fringe, Labour not only becomes a much more comfortable fit for NZ First ‚Äď but also for working-class New Zealanders generally.

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Good luck with that approach Little Andy

Andrew Little thinks he is in charge of the opposition and he says he is going to start to work closely with Winston Peters.

Labour leader Andrew Little plans to pave the way for a closer relationship with NZ First leader Winston Peters when they meet this week.

After a win by more than 4000 votes in Saturday’s Northland by-election, Peters has made life more difficult for the Government to govern.

Little told Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report on Tuesday that it had been weeks since he had met with¬†Peters, but he intended to do so this week.

“As leader of the Opposition, it’s my job to forge as best a relationship as possible with all the parties,” he said.

“I’ve been working with the Greens and will work more closely with NZ First now the by-election is out of the way.” ¬† Read more »

‘Tis but a scratch

John Key seems to have a happy knack these days of treating his supporters with disdain.

He is apparently “philosophical” about losing a safe National seat to Winston Peters. He sounds remarkably like the Black Knight in Monty Python.

Prime Minister John Key says losing Northland in yesterday’s byelection was disappointing but he was “pretty philosophical” about it.

It was effectively a two-candidate contest between National’s Mark Osborne and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters who won with a 4012 majority and that could not be translated to a general election.

“Once you back to a normalized scenario where there are a great many more candidates, then the dynamics change dramatically because obviously you get vote splitting and we are by far the biggest party and our candidate will come through,” he said today from Melbourne, before the cricket final.

Mr Key said he would take the loss on board.

“The voters are never wrong like, frankly, in my view, the polls are very infrequently wrong.

“We’re not dismissing it. We’re saying the rational explanation is that you’ve got a collection of parties up against National rather than droves of National voters deserting us.”

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Can Winston be trusted? The left are about to find out

NZ First leader Winston Peters says NZ First may decide not to bring an extra MP into Parliament after his Northland byelection win because his party supports a smaller Parliament.

Mr Peters’ 4,000 vote win last night allows him to resign his list position, opening the way for someone else on NZ First’s list to enter Parliament.

Mr Peters said the party would “seriously consider” not taking on the extra MP.

“It may be we decide that we are for a much smaller Parliament, that we won’t take this option and that we will try and demonstrate that Parliament should be, as the Robertson petition said, no more than 100 people.”

Having encouraged Northland to send the Government a message, and magically got Andrew Little to stand down his own candidate in favour of his own cup of tea deal, Winston Peters also knows he’s got to deliver for a largely center right electorate, and that isn’t done by playing with the green and red kids in parliament. ¬† Read more »

Key had more pork barrels lined up but bottled it

If you thought the bridge bribe was bad enough, John Key had even more pork barrels lined up for delivery into Northland, but bottled rolling them out after polling showed the voters weren’t pleased.

And stupidly John Key has admitted it.

Prime Minister John Key has admitted National deliberately pulled back from rolling out more promises in the Northland by-election after a backlash to plans to spend tens of millions of dollars on local bridges.

National is in a fight for its life in Northland where local candidate Mark Osborne has been blindsided by NZ First leader Winston Peters, who polls show well ahead.

Key reacted to Peters challenge in the early stages of the campaign with a promise to upgrade 10 one way bridges – a bug bear in Northland where infrastructure has been a key issue in the by-election campaign.

Key had also signalled here would be more spending commitments announced before the campaign was over.

But since the bridge announcement National has only rolled out reheated announcements from the last election.

At a Kiwifruit packing plant in Kerikeri, Key admitted the campaign team decided against rolling out further spending promises after the initial reaction to its announcement on one way bridges..

“Probably on balance we decided there were a few things we wouldn’t announce and instead do them after the by-election.”

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