Peter Dunne

Just last week Charles Chauvel was telling everyone who would listen that the risk of an earthquake before Christmas was low:

“These buildings must have been considered safe last week, and the week before. The acting deputy secretary of courts says there is ‘no imminent danger’. Instead of this knee-jerk reaction, a proper risk assessment should apply.

“The courtrooms in these courthouses will be scheduled for skeleton sittings over those three or four weeks. The likelihood of a major quake in most of the affected locations between now and Christmas is low.

After last nights earthquake in the Wellington region it looks like Charles Chauvel’s earthquake predicting skills have as much credibility as his skills at winning Ohariu off Peter Dunne.

No longer can we say our media is non-partisan. This election the NZ Herald mainly through its sister publication the Herald on Sunday has had a shameful selection of coverage and blatant attempts to affect outcomes. Today the Herald’s editorial comes out supporting MMP. It also comes out to support the left’s dream scenario of minor parties having to get 5% to get list MPs.

This situation, unique to our form of MMP, could be solved in large part if parties always had to secure at least 5 per cent of the party vote – irrespective of any electorate wins – to gain list seats.

What this means, in really simple terms, is National will have no coalition partners after 2014 if MMP is retained. It will have independents like Peter Dunne and John Banks. Only the Greens have made the 5% threshold in the last two elections, and only the Greens will make the 5% threshold again. A review that makes this change means that 2014 National will be without coalition partners.

If MMP is retained National will have no coalitions partners and will become the Natural Party of Opposition. John Key needs to realise that this referendum is a partisan battle that he needs to win or he is screwed, and only he can alter the outcome.

If John Key wants to be Prime Minister after 2014 he needs to give the same kind of speech David Cameron gave.

Guyon Espiner won the debate just because he was in charge.

Of the “talent” on show Tariana Turia and Russel Norman were the stand outs for me.

Tariana Turia oozed mana, and shamed out Hone Harawira for lying about national and some short gray haired pensioner standing next to her for duplicity. When Guyon Espiner brought the illegal tape it was Tariana Turia that showed respect, gravitas and integrity that other politicians would do well to emulate.

Russel Norman looked reasonable, sounded reasonable and actually made sense even on the ETS when he mocked Don Brash. The only time he looks distinctly uncomfortable was when he was asked about his party’s involvement in orchestrating mass vandalism of National’s sign.

Peter Dunne and Don Brash look old, doddery and out of touch with modern society. They should just go away and electorally die.

Hone Harawira is dumber than a sack of hammers. He doesn’t even know how Kiwisaver works. The man only repeats the lines Matt McCarten 30 minutes before he went on the show and he even bombs those.

Some other thieving, lying, corrupt bastard who looked shorter than Tariana Turia was also there but we do not speak of evil.

Charles Chauvel has written a letter to constituents in Ohariu:

Chauvel Letter to Consituents

I think Charles forgets something when he says that Peter Dunne was “elected to parliament 27 years ago. The Cold war was still raging. The Space Shuttle Discovery made its maiden flight. CD players went on sale commercially. DNA profiling was developed”.

Now what is it he has forgotton? Oh yes…Phil Goff was elected to parliament in 1984 as well.

Maybe Charles is right when he says that a vote for someone first elected in 1984 is a “vote for the failed policies and personalities of the past”.

Do National voters really want Charles Chauvel to win Ohariu?

Peter Dunne is facing the fight of his political life with a new poll showing he is holding on to the Ohariu electorate by the skin of his teeth.

The Fairfax Media-Research International mini poll shows the UnitedFuture leader, who has held the north Wellington seat for the past 27 years, could be ousted by Labour’s Charles Chauvel.

It put Mr Dunne on 37.4 per cent, less than two points ahead of Labour’s Charles Chauvel on 35.6.

National’s Katrina Shanks is a distant third on 19 per cent and the Greens candidate Gareth Hughes registered just 1.4 per cent.

A massive 34.6 per cent of voters were undecided.

It is only a poll of 163 voters but I would suggest the holdouts backing Shanks just give up and vote Peter Dunne.

Charles will be writing letters and emails now to supporters suggesting the words to use in Letters to the Editor.

This morning both David Farrar and I blogged about the quiet launch of Labour’s Rainbow policy.

No Right Turn is scathing of the issues highlighted by David Farrar:

This is simply gutless. Labour needs to own its shit, recognise that eliminating homophobia begins at home, and start by eliminating its bigots. Their failure to do so undermines their credibility, and their entire policy. After all, how can politicians prohibit homophobia in schools, when they allow it amongst themselves? How can we say “its not OK”, when Labour pretty obviously still thinks it is?

After initially covering up Labour’s latent homophobia Grant Robertson now has had to confront the issue now that the mainstream media have picked up the story.

Charles Chauvel and his proxy John Pagani smell a bit of conspiracy though…they think this has all come about because they think David Farrar thinks that Peter Dunne is polling behind Chauvel in Ohariu.

Chauvel believes he is the focus of personal attacks and ”dirty politics” because internal polling shows him ahead in the ahead in the Ohariu electorate.

Oh and also because Charles is a gay mincer and we are all out to get him. The reality has escaped them so I will outline it for them. Charles Chauvel is getting what he deserves for being a spineless, self promoting, tosser of mediocre abilities, not because he is gay.

Stuff is running a story of a leaked poll on Epsom showing National winning the seat and leaving ACT out of parliament. This election it does not matter as National will have enough votes to form a government, but in 2014 without ACT, Peter Dunne, Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples National will not have any coalition partners.

It is simply not possible to believe that John Key will be as popular in 2014 as he is now and that National can buck historical trends to get over 48% to continue governing alone.

This blog has been consistent in saying National is strategically stupid for not engaging in the referendum for the electoral system. John Key and Steven Joyce are almost certainly ensuring an election loss in 2014 by not engaging, and dooming National to becoming the Natural Party of Opposition in the future.

John Key needs to do what David Cameron did and explain why New Zealanders should Vote for Change and his preferred system to give National a chance of being in government in the medium term.

It is not often I agree with Deborah Coddington but today is an exception.is unusually sage this morning.

But let’s face it, National has no credible support partner right now. It can only rely on Peter Dunne. Who knows how many MPs the Maori Party will bring back to Parliament? Key has ruled out working with Hone Harawira and Winston Peters (even if NZ First does make it back).

Then there’s Act. Or, should I say, then there was Act.

Deborah highlights that National under MMP is in severe trouble after this election. They have no natural support parties. Yet their heads are so far in the sand they will not take a position on the electoral reform referendum. Their political foes have no such qualms and are even registered to spend up to $300,000 each telling us how they prefer New Zealand under the heel of MMP.

I have a no dickheads rule. I won’t work for or with dickheads. It is one of the reasons I quit Citizen A.

When Paul Roos took over the Sydney Swans he implemented a no dickheads rule in order to clean up the club. It is the origin for my no dickheads rule. So far it has stood the club in good stead, but after a poor season this year there are some calling for the club to hire a dickhead.

Paul Roos is gone from the club but does the no dickheads rule remain?

The no dickheads policy. If it’s still in place, Fevola has a problem.

While he can be a good influence on the field, the worry for the Swans could be the bad influence off the field.

While AFL players enjoy anonymity in Sydney, Fevola is well-known enough to be recognised, which can often lead to altercations at pubs.

Swans fans don’t like him, and most don’t want him. The Swans are the goodie two shoes of sport in Sydney, and adding a bad boy may change their clean-cut image among parents of youngsters.

Risk, gamble, punt. Yes, yes and yes. When they don’t come off, we are all dirty on ourselves for taking them. When they do … it could be the difference between a top eight finish and a top four.

I think political parties should consider a no dickheads policy too. That way we wouldn’t have to put up with people like Trevor Mallard, Charles Chauvel, Gerry Brownlee, Simon Power, Keith Locke, Hone Harawira and Peter Dunne.

Psycho Milt exposes Peter Dunne’s rank hypocrisy over the banning of synthetic cannabinoids:

Stuff, 2 August 2011: