The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows National with over 50% of the vote despite the best efforts of Nicky Hager, Kim Dotcom and the hacker, in league with their bought media activists, to manipulate an election result.
While National is still riding high at 50.8 per cent, the poll shows it taking a 4.3 per cent hit after the release of Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics linking Key’s office to political attacks by Right-wing blogger Cameron Slater.
Uhm…no it shows the previous poll was probably a rogue with National too high and this one is more in line with others.
National would still be in pole position to form the next government but the party’s strategists will be alarmed that it has shed support in the opening weeks of the campaign.
National’s nightmare scenario is seeing its support slide to 45 per cent or below, which could see it tossed out of office, depending on which minor party holds the balance of power.
The rise of NZ First leader Winston Peters could see him as kingmaker, with today’s poll putting his party on 4 per cent. Peters, who is 70 next year, has the odds in his favour of crossing the 5 per cent threshold for winning seats in Parliament.
The poll follows a chaotic start to the campaign after Hager’s bombshell allegations that a senior staffer in Key’s office was a conduit to Slater’s WhaleOil blog, infamous for publishing salacious details of Auckland Mayor Len Brown’s extra-marital affair.