Latest Roy Morgan poll proves Andrew Little was right to ignore the centre

It seems I was wrong. And Helen Clark was wrong, and John Key was wrong. The winning of the election isn’t in the centre, it is heading left like Bryan Gould says.

The latest Roy Morgan poll suggests that Andrew Little’s eschewing of the centre is a brilliant move. Instead of trying to out National National, they need to double down on socialism…it’s working.


During September support for National fell for the second straight month, by 4.5% to 41.5% (the lowest support for National in three years since September 2013) now clearly behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance 45.5% (up 5.5%) for the first time in a year – since September 2015 after Prime Minister John Key attended several overseas summits in early September.   Read more »

Danyl on Labour’s dodgy polling

Danyl McLauchlan is having a blinder. He has dropped the sarcasm and started blogging in a rather perspicacious manner.

His latest effort on the spin being pushed by Labour on the polling is interesting and answers a lot of questions about why it is that Labour can’t make any dents in National’s numbers.

My current theory of New Zealand politics is that the party voter bases look roughly like this:

linearvenn Read more »


Ele Ludemann on Labour’s dodgy polls

Ele Ludemann is a very, very capable woman who blogs about politics. Here at Whaleoil,we enjoy reading what Ele has to say, and wish she would say a bit more of it as she is a very wise judge of politics.

She absolutely nails Labour and their dodgy polling with this fantastic post.

Individual polls are probably only of interest to political tragics but others might take more interest in the trends which have National in the mid 40s and suggest the UMR poll is an outlier.

Labour could have set a silly precedent and dug a hole for itself by releasing its own poll.    Read more »


Labour’s dodgy polling


Arts, Travel & Lifestyle blogger David Farrar is widely regarded as being New Zealand’s best pollster. That is why we use him for Incite polling, and why we listen when he tells us a poll is dodgy.

He is clearly saying Labour’s polling is dodgy, and has posted about it.


A rather desperate Andrew Little has released their internal polling from  to try and convince people they are really winning.

UMR is a very good company and I often refer people to them, if I can’t do the work. But I will comment on this specific poll as it is vastly different to every other poll published.   Read more »


Is it time to #changetheopposition?


One News has released their latest Colmar Brunton poll. After months of fabricated crisis after crisis this is the result…

It’s a shocker for Labour and Andrew Little is calling the poll “bogus”.

There are fresh worries for Labour following the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

The party has slipped three points to 26 per cent. That’s the lowest it’s been in the ONE News poll since the last election when it recorded 25 per cent.

National, however, remains in fine form riding high, steady this month at 48 per cent, the same result it picked up on election night in 2014.    Read more »

Comment of the Day

Danyl makes a perceptive comment at his blog:

There were a bunch of stories the other day aboutJohn Key washing his car, and it generated contemptuous groans from the online left. But if you’re someone who isn’t obsessed with politics, seeing the head of government making fun of himself, washing his car, spending time with his son – these are, y’know, likable things to most people. If I think my way through most of our crop of successful politicians its not hard to think of the stories they want to tell about themselves. Bill English is a gruff farmer. Paula Bennett is a feisty westie. Judith Collins is Crusher. Winston Peters is a wily old fox who keeps ’em honest.

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Which pollsters can you trust, and which are bought and paid for?

We should have something like this here.


In the process of being an analyser of polls, Nate Silver has had to figure out which are actually delivering reliable and honest results, and which are essentially fronts that get you the answer you’re paying for.

We know that Colmar Brunton are one of the most variable and have a clear bias towards Labour, for example.

As for Horizon, they had the Conservative party in government as part of the coalition with National right now.

Whenever the Fraser House spy tells me that Labour are polling in the low to mid-thirties, and then paid-for polls come out, you can reliably subtract 4-6 points, every time.


– 538

Looking behind the numbers of Colmar Brunton

Colmar Brunton have helpfully provided a look behind the numbers, especially regarding the MOU announcement of the Greens and Labour.

This is not good reading so the one Green party member who reads this blog should look away now.

Following the announcement of the Labour and Green Party Memorandum of Understanding, support for the Labour Party increased significantly, from 26% to 31%, and support for New Zealand First decreased, from 11% to 7%. Support for the Conservative Party also increased, from 0.2% to 1.2%. No other changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Please note: We have displayed these results to 1 decimal place to aid significance testing.

Screen Shot 2016-06-07 at 8.34.21 PM

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Latest poll shows a NZ First/National government could govern easily


The latest One News/Colmar Brunton Poll is out and the status quo remains.

There are some small margin of error movements but essentially National is still riding high after 8 and a half years in government.

  • National 48% (down from 50)
  • Labour 29% (up from 28)
  • Greens 12% (up from 10)
  • NZ First 9%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Conservative Party 1%

That Conservative party number will collapse to nothing in coming months when the truth start coming out about Colin Craig.   Read more »


Farrar provides some facts to counter the shrill headlines predicting John Key’s demise

The Media party have piled in on the latest Newshub poll suggesting that a small, less than the margin of error, drop in popularity of John Key is the beginning of the end of him.

They have ignored that Andrew Little is below Winston Peters in the same poll and he dropped even more than John Key.

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger David Farrar takes time out from his hectic touring schedule to present some facts that seem to have escaped the commentators in the Media party.

The Newshub story says Key has plummeted as Preferred PM as he has dropped 1.5% in 6 months. This is of course not even statistically significant let alone a plummet of any kind.

I thought it would be useful to compare the Preferred PM ratings of May 2016, with May 2007 – the same point in Labour’s third term.

In May 2007 the PM was at 30% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the PM is at 37% Preferred PM.

In May 2007 the Opposition Leader was at 32% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the Opposition Leader is at 9% Preferred PM.

So Clark was trailing by 2% in May 2007, while in May 2016 Key leads Little by 28%.   Read more »