Little Andy moves to protect his precious

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

We’re winning I tell you, we’re winning

Andrew Little won’t be entertaining a job share agreement with Winston Peters.

He wants the job all to himself…its his “precious”.

Labour leader Andrew Little is only just in front of NZ First leader Winston Peters in the preferred Prime Minister stakes but says he will not entertain the suggestion of sharing the top job if Mr Peters holds the balance of power.

In the latest 3 News Reid Research poll, NZ First would have the balance of power and on The Nation this weekend, Mr Peters would not rule out seeking a power-sharing role as Prime Minister if NZ First was strong enough.

He refused to answer a direct question, saying “it’s immaterial unless we get the kind of sign-up and support that we are seeking in 2017”. However, he pointed out there was precedent of the leader of the second biggest party in a coalition becoming Prime Minister – George Forbes in 1932.

Yesterday Mr Little said any place for Mr Peters in a future Labour-led government would depend on his support levels but the Prime Minister’s role was not up for grabs. “I don’t think New Zealand is ready to accept a state of musical chairs in the role of Prime Minister.”

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Latest 3News poll shows Little still lacks cut through


The latest 3News-Reid Research poll shows that Andrew little still has a ways to go despite the best efforts of the Media party to play opposition.

It is a year to the day of the last general election and National is polling the same as polling day, despite being off the boil and facing an onslaught of mini-scandals and manipulations, mainly from the Media party.

The Media party push for Jacinda Ardern seems to be working, she has about a third of the support of Andrew Little, while John Key maintains his massive lead in the preferred PM stakes.

Winston Peters remains in the box seat as potential king maker.

Party standings:

National: 47.3 percent (up 0.3 percent)
Labour: 33 percent (up 1.9 percent)
Greens: 10 percent (down 1.4 percent)
NZ First: 7.9 percent(down 0.5 percent)
ACT: 0.6 percent (up 0.1 percent)
Maori Party: 0.5 percent (down 0.1 percent)
Conservative: 0.5 percent (down 0.2 percent)
United Future 0 percent (down 0.1 percent)   Read more »

Rodney Hide on poll driven fruit cakes

Rodney Hide explains at NBR about how it is polls and polling that drive politics now, not policies.

Policy is now made by public feel. Every decision is open to review and reversal especially if the pushback is from middle voters.

And it works. Prime Minister John Key remains wildly popular and National is well ahead in the polls.

There was a time when government was idealised as rational, with the aim to deliver the best policy backed by a political resolve not to blink and with the benefits to be achieved, or at least understood, by the time of the next election.

It was never such but that was the ideal aspired to. It was what public servants were taught if not what they practised. And it was what politicians admired even if they themselves never quite possessed the needed intellectual grunt to grasp policy options and implications or the necessary political fortitude to stand and argue for sound policy. They nonetheless admired the ideal and followed it when there was political leadership.

That was back a time. This is now.

We have never had a better demonstration of policy by public feel than with Mr Key.

There are no bottom lines. There are no decisions that can’t be overturned. There are no guiding policy principles or political philosophy.

It’s policy management, not policy reform.

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Another rogue poll shows that Andrew Little has no cut through


It is coming up to BBQ season, the weather is warming and the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll shows Andrew Little and Laobur’s gamble to use dodgy statistics and bash people with chinky sounding names has well and truly failed.

This month’s ONE News Colmar Brunton poll has National unchanged at 47 per cent, the same amount it attained at the election.

Labour meanwhile has improved on its disastrous election result and now seems to have a firm hold above the 30 per cent mark.

It’s held steady in this month’s poll at 32 per cent. The Greens have slipped a point this month to 12 per cent, New Zealand First is steady on seven, while the Maori Party is up one.   Read more »


John Key has massive work to do on the flag


Not wanted

John Key already knew this poll would be bad, his pollster would have told him that support for a flag change is going backwards.

A One News/Colmar Brunton poll has found that two thirds of us don’t want a flag change.

The poll, taken before the final four potential flag designs were announced, shows 66 per cent want to keep the current flag, up 2 per cent from 18 months ago.

There was a similar rise of 1 per cent to 28 per cent in those in favour of a flag change.    Read more »


Poll confirms disaster of Labour’s Chinkygate policy

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

We’re winning I tell you, we’re winning

Labour banked their future on their racist, dog-whistle attack on people with chinky-sounding names buying property.

Unfortunately, contrary to the claims of Andrew Little and Phil Twyford in caucus, this policy is not Labour’s ‘Orewa’. In fact in three polls in a row it is now a confirmed failure.

Don Brash’s ‘Orewa’ speech “resulted in a major surge for the National Party, which had been languishing from an overwhelming defeat at the 2002 election. From 28% in the polls a month before the speech, the National Party jumped to 45% two weeks after it: ten points ahead of Labour.

Nothing of the sort has happened to Labour, and in one poll they actually went backwards.

A newspaper has released their Digipoll this morning and there is a slight, but within the margin of error, increase for Labour, while National remains able to govern alone.   Read more »

Twyford’s chinkygate balls up sinks Labour in the latest Roy Morgan

Labour have taken an expected battering as a result of their anti-Asian dog-whistle housing policy that focussed on people with chinky sounding names.

During August support for National jumped 7.5% to 50.5% now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 38% (down 7%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. Support for the major parties in August has returned to close to the levels of support in June. National 50.5% cf. 49.5% (in June) and Labour/ Greens 38% cf. 39% (in June) after a poor result for the Key Government in July caused by rising worries about Economic issues – including the steep fall in the price of milk powder and as the New Zealand Dollar plunged to six year lows in early July.

If a NZ Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National Party would easily be returned to power.

Support for the National partners was unchanged with the Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 27% (down 5%), Greens 11% (down 2%) although support for NZ First increased to 8% (up 1%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Conservative Party of NZ is 0% (down 1.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (down 0.5%).

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The Delusions of the Left on their Internal Poll

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

We’re winning I tell you, we’re winning

Yesterday we published a couple of posts highlighting the stupidity of anyone believing the UMR polls, mainly because they are so far out of sync with the TV One & TV3 Polls. Remember that the two TV polls had Labour 15% behind National, yet Labour are now claiming their internal polls are at 41-35, a gap of 6.

The halfwits on the left immediately seized on this as a panic attack on Whaleoil, rather than a deliberate take down of a poll that has no credibility. Chris Trotter wrote at the Daily Bog:

“Something Very, Very Different”: Why rumours of Labour’s internal poll numbers are giving the Nats the heebie-jeebies

Who knows which National Party Chris is thinking about but the only thing Labour’s rigged poll has given National is a lot of laughs.   Read more »


UMR doesn’t stand for Unbelievably Massaged Result

Different? What do you mean different?

Different? What do you mean different?

Labour’s pollsters UMR have allegedly done a poll that shows Labour 41-35 down instead of 47-31 down as all the other polls show.

People in the polling industry are very surprised with these numbers, and consider them to be highly unlikely.

They also consider it highly unlikely that a reputable polling company like UMR would ever get a poll that is this far different from all the other polls.

The issue for UMR is that if their brand gets damaged by showing crazy poll results that don’t reflect reality some of their commercial candidates will axe them.

Unbelievable political polls damage polling organisations reputations, and cost them work. UMR will be desperate to release the actual polls to show they are not dodgy.

Labour should release the raw data from the poll to prove that it is kosher.   Read more »

20 years of preferred PM and Labour’s disconnection with reality

Colmar Brunton published via Twitter two charts showing the last 20 years of the Preferred PM statistics:

Source/ Colmar Brunton

Source/ Colmar Brunton

Source/ Colmar Brunton

Source/ Colmar Brunton

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