polling

Latest Roy Morgan sobering reading for leaderless left wing

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out it makes for sobering reading for the left wing.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (49.5%, up 6% since early October). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is down slightly with the Maori Party 1% (down 1%), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is up slightly to 24% (up 1.5%) and down for the other two opposition parties: Greens 14.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 6.5% (down 0.5%). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 2% (down 3%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would be easily re-elected.

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Chart of the Day

Actually make that charts of the day.

David Farrar has a chart of Labour’s stellar electoral record since 1938.

Labour-eletion-results-560x366

This is a graph of Labour’s general election results in every general election since 1938. I’ve added a trendline in, to reinforce the obvious point. They do go through cycles of relative highs and lows but each high is lower than the one before, and each low is lower than the one before.

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Is there much use to political polls?

Grumpollie has crunched the numbers:

Here is the actual (provisional) result and the last polls

table-1

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Labour’s election campaign is slip, slidin’ away

The election is slip, slidin’ away from Labour.

They are approaching the territory of Bill English, expect a sudden collapse of their vote in this final week as people wake up to¬†the¬†fact that they can’t win.

Voters don’t vote for losers.For the same reason people leave early from a rugby match when their team is getting pasted the voters will abandon Labour.

National is urging its supporters not to split their vote as our latest poll confirms the minor parties are on the rise – and Labour continues to slump.

The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll signals a horror start to the final week of the campaign for Labour as its support slides to 22.4 per cent, putting it on track for an unprecedented trouncing.

It appears to have bled some support to the Greens, who are on 13 per cent. But most attention is around the seeming unstoppable rise of Winston Peters and NZ First.

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How to put positive spin on dreadful numbers

The NZ Herald has some new numbers from their polling that looks at some key demographics.

But watch how they spin the numbers.

A breakdown of the latest Herald Digipoll results according to gender, location and age shows where the parties are strongest and where they are gaining and losing ground.

Labour’s popularity with male voters has increased, with 21.2 per cent of men supporting it for the party vote, compared to 18.4 per cent last week.

The party’s support among women hasn’t changed much, with 27.8 per cent this week, compared to 28.9 per cent last week.

Those numbers are simply dreadful for Labour. As I said earlier in the week Labour’s internal polling was showing them with a one in front of it and it looks like Digipoll has found the same.

Sure it has increased to barely over 20% and in the territory of Bill English’s dreadful 2002 result. Even thenumbers for women are bad and lower than when David Shearer led Labour. The Herald spins this as positive…Labour’s popularity amongst men is rising…when it is around 20% it can only but rise! ¬† Read more »

Labour is in trouble, Auckland hates them

The age old refrain in politics is “If you win Auckland, you win Wellington” has become a truism.

Political parties that ignore Auckland do so at their peril and are unlikely to make much inroads into gaining the treasury benches.

That is why the Greens put so much effort into Auckland’s¬†leafy suburbs trying to convince voting mothers that the planet is in peril.

Labour traditionally had solid support in South Auckland and West Auckland. But that support is at risk.

North of the bridge is solid blue all the way to Cape Reinga, and Labour stranglehold in the south ends at Manurewa with Judith Collins rock solid in Papakura.

Fairfax has been polling in Auckland and Labour has problems.

With the leaders focusing on the vote-rich Auckland seats in the last two weeks of the campaign, the two most recent Stuff.co.nz-Ipsos polls showed 56 per cent of Aucklanders backed National against just over 50 per cent in the rest of the country.

There was very little variation among Labour voters, with about 25 per cent supporting the party inside and outside Auckland.

The only other major difference was for the Greens with just 10 per cent support in Auckland but 13.5 per cent across the rest of the country. ¬†¬† Read more »

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What the polls are showing

3news

Last night was yet another poll that showed that Kiwi voters don;t give a toss about the shrill cacophony of whining from the left wing about Dirty Politics.

In fact it is showing that the voters not only don’t care but are locking in support strongly behind John Key and National.

Dirty politics has always been and continues to be a beltway issue.

The only thing it has done is increase my traffic and my reach.

The polls also show something else which should send a shiver down the spine of those who think the chinless scarf wearer currently running Labour would be Prime Minister.

The polls are showing that contrary to popular wisdom the National party actually does have support partner options.

With Winston Peters and Colin Craig’s cult both polling either above or close to the threshold, then with wasted vote it is likely that both will make it.

That gives John Key options…significant options. ¬† Read more »

Two polls herald Labour’s disaster

Two polls this morning show that Labour’s hope that “Dirty Politics” was going to be their salvation was misplaced.

The NZ Herald/Digipoll is really bad news for them.

National’s polling has barely flickered in the three weeks since the¬†Dirty Politics¬†book was launched and the party could still govern alone on 50.1 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

Prime Minister John Key told the¬†Herald¬†the results reflected “a huge fatigue factor” with Dirty Politics.

Their July poll was clearly out of whack and the poll has settled back to usual levels.

National support

The full numbers for the Herald/Digipoll are:

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

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One News/Colmar Brunton shows Dirty Politics barely registering

 

onenewspoll

Photo/ TVNZ

The left wing conspiracy and smear job initiated with illegal hacking against me and now being pushed hard by the left wing isn’t working.

They have been working towards this all year and now as more and more revealing details are released we can see it is a smear job aimed squarely at National.

The Fact that not a single email be tween me and Labour MPs, nor Facebook messages with the same, and ditto Green party and Winston shows that this is a targeted political smear.

They dare to claim the high ground.

If you believe it was mere coincidence that Labour’s campaign slogan is “Vote Positive” and isn’t related at all to the illegal hacking of my systems then I have a bridge I can sell you.

The good news for voters is that National remains strong and largely unaffected, with changes at the margin of error only.

The campaigning of the complicit media in aiding and abetting a criminal conspiracy to hijack our elections isn’t working.

National has taken a ‘Dirty Politics’ hit in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll, down two points to 48% while Labour has gained two and is sitting at 28%.

The poll accounts for the effects of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book but not this weekend’s developments. ¬† Read more »

Another poll with Nats over 50%, but media says they are failing

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows National with over 50% of the vote despite the best efforts of Nicky Hager, Kim Dotcom and the hacker, in league with their bought media activists, to manipulate an election result.

While National is still riding high at 50.8 per cent, the poll shows it taking a 4.3 per cent hit after the release of Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics linking Key’s office to political attacks by Right-wing blogger Cameron Slater.

Uhm…no it shows the previous poll was probably a rogue with National too high and this one is more in line with others.

National would still be in pole position to form the next government but the party’s strategists will be alarmed that it has shed support in the opening weeks of the campaign.

National’s nightmare scenario is seeing its support slide to 45 per cent or below, which could see it tossed out of office, depending on which minor party holds the balance of power.

The rise of NZ First leader Winston Peters could see him as kingmaker, with today’s poll putting his party on 4 per cent. Peters, who is 70 next year, has the odds in his favour of crossing the 5 per cent threshold for winning seats in Parliament.

The poll follows a chaotic start to the campaign after Hager’s bombshell allegations that a senior staffer in Key’s office was a conduit to Slater’s WhaleOil blog, infamous for publishing salacious details of Auckland Mayor Len Brown’s extra-marital affair.

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