polling

David Shearer can breathe easy, the latest Roy Morgan poll has the Green led Labour alliance safely in front of National now.

Everyone knows that Roy Morgan is the most accurate poll of them all and the other three polls out this week are clearly and demonstrably rogue polls.

By being based in Melbourne, Australia it allows Roy Morgan to fairly assess results without the annoyance of beltway echoes.

Privately the National party is relieved that they no longer have to work out a strategy for Grant Robertson and can keep on with their proven strategy against David Shearer.  Read more »

With the latest poll is is looking like the proverbial line int he sand has now been crossed and the active white-anting of David Shearer has begun.

In Comrade Small’s article in the Dompost today there is voter feedback included:

On Labour and David Shearer: 

‘‘The lack of a leader is what’s destroying them.’’

‘‘They could do better than David Shearer in charge – he is just not forceful enough.’’

‘‘They keep on knocking the other party instead of talking about what they want to do for the country. They need to be positive.’’

‘‘David Shearer has no substance. He just gets a little phrase and repeats it.’’

‘‘Well, I’m unimpressed with trying to regulate power. The whole policy is not going to do us good.’’

‘‘They’re not being an effective opposition and not taking advantage of their mistakes.’’

‘‘That whole thing where he didn’t declare his bank account.’’  Read more »

The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll has been released and Grant Robertson will be licking his chops.

Labour has taken a big hit in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, raising fresh questions about whether David Shearer can lead them to victory.

Halfway through its second term, Prime Minister John Key’s National is riding high on 49.1 per cent support, up 4.5 percentage points since February, and would be able to govern alone.

Over the same period Labour had shed 4.4 per cent to 31.9 per cent, with respondents pointing to Mr Shearer as weak and negative, Ipsos pollster Duncan Stuart said.

It marks a sharp reversal from our February poll when the Left and Right were neck and neck.

The survey, taken in the days after the May 16 Budget, suggests an improving economic mood has lifted National’s poll ratings.  Read more »

Matthew Hooton comments via Facebook:

If you average out the two TV polls with the most recent Roy Morgan, and compare that with the average of those same three polls a month ago, it suggests Labour/Green has lost about 64,000 voters in the last month and National has picked up about 53,000 of these, and Maori and Mana parties about 9,000 and 7,500 respectively. Doesn’t look like NZ Power has worked, although the booming economy, plunging unemployment, rising wages, very low inflation, $5 billion of extra social spending and forecast surplus will also have helped National.   Read more »

One News and Tv3 released their latest polls, and despite Patrick Gower’s enthusiasm for Labour they both show the same thing…National can pretty much govern alone and David Shearer’s Labour is losing support in large chunks to National as they lurch further to the left and get nice and cosy with the Greens

This can be seen clearly in the figures in the One News Colmar Brunton poll. Although the Greens drop, that support went to Labour, even more left Labour as a result of the green taint.

The voters clearly don’t like the Green/Labour mix and the only big policy announcement in this poll cycle was their power black out plan…the voters obviously don’t like it.

One News results:

Read more »

The latest Roy Morgan poll came out yesterday and as is usual from that polling company it was another massive swing. This is why I no longer have any faith in their polling. There is simply too much variation up and down.

This latest offering is too scandalous to go past. His latest poll has National up six Labour down four and the Greens down 2.5.  A 14 point swing.

Even worse though is Gary Morgan’s commentary.

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 6%) increasing its lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (31.5%, down 4%) after New Zealand became the thirteenth country in the world, and the first in the Asia-Pacific, to legalise same-sex marriage. Today’s result returns National to a lead similar to the lead it held two months ago in late February — National (47.5%) cf. Labour (30.5%).  Read more »

Who would know where the polls are at the moment. I have decided that I won’t reference Roy Morgan anymore. Their polling has become extremely erratic and their refusal to join the polling body just confirms my suspicions. It wouldn;t matter if they showed National above 50%, I will no longer mention their crack fuelled polling.

TVNZ One News Colmar Brunton poll shows a drop for National. I’d suggest their February result was a bit out of kilter, so the drop is not as big as they are making out.

Labour will try to claim this is because of their constant dripping tap of GCSB and also their power policy. However polling was completed well before they released the policy.  Read more »

This time it is the latest Roy Morgan poll:

Read more »

In about 15 minutes I will be sitting down with Leighton Smith collecting my winnings from our bet last year.

Readers will remember that Leighton Smith and I made a bet on the outcome of the US presidential election, months ahead polling day. He said that Mitt Romney would win easily, and I said that though i wanted Romney to win I believed that he wouldn’t be able to do it and that Barack Obama would win a second term.

I based my opinions on the mathematical and statistical approach of Nate Silver.

As you all know Obama romped home and I won the bet.

The vagaries of holidays, overlapping commitments, timing and extraneous matters meant that this was the earliest we could do it.

Never let it be said that Leighton Smith doesn’t honour his bets.

I will post photos from the event later.

Scott Yorke at Imperator Fish has some advice for those who are struggling to believe the constant run of rogue polls, especially Labour types like Meg.

Here are his ten reasons for Labour not to worry about polls:

1. That’s not what I’m hearing when I’m out and about talking to ordinary people.
2. Something or other about how fixed phonelines skew the results.
3. While the last few polls have show a downward trend, the long-term trend is positive. If you ignore all the data since about 2007, which has basically just been noise, you can see that Labour is doing okay.  Read more »