polling

Poll confirms disaster of Labour’s Chinkygate policy

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

We’re winning I tell you, we’re winning

Labour banked their future on their racist, dog-whistle attack on people with chinky-sounding names buying property.

Unfortunately, contrary to the claims of Andrew Little and Phil Twyford in caucus, this policy is not Labour’s ‘Orewa’. In fact in three polls in a row it is now a confirmed failure.

Don Brash’s ‘Orewa’ speech “resulted in a major surge for the National Party, which had been languishing from an overwhelming defeat at the 2002 election. From 28% in the polls a month before the speech, the National Party jumped to 45% two weeks after it: ten points ahead of Labour.

Nothing of the sort has happened to Labour, and in one poll they actually went backwards.

A newspaper has released their Digipoll this morning and there is a slight, but within the margin of error, increase for Labour, while National remains able to govern alone.   Read more »

Twyford’s chinkygate balls up sinks Labour in the latest Roy Morgan

Labour have taken an expected battering as a result of their anti-Asian dog-whistle housing policy that focussed on people with chinky sounding names.

During August support for National jumped 7.5% to 50.5% now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 38% (down 7%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. Support for the major parties in August has returned to close to the levels of support in June. National 50.5% cf. 49.5% (in June) and Labour/ Greens 38% cf. 39% (in June) after a poor result for the Key Government in July caused by rising worries about Economic issues – including the steep fall in the price of milk powder and as the New Zealand Dollar plunged to six year lows in early July.

If a NZ Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National Party would easily be returned to power.

Support for the National partners was unchanged with the Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 27% (down 5%), Greens 11% (down 2%) although support for NZ First increased to 8% (up 1%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Conservative Party of NZ is 0% (down 1.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (down 0.5%).

Read more »

The Delusions of the Left on their Internal Poll

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

We’re winning I tell you, we’re winning

Yesterday we published a couple of posts highlighting the stupidity of anyone believing the UMR polls, mainly because they are so far out of sync with the TV One & TV3 Polls. Remember that the two TV polls had Labour 15% behind National, yet Labour are now claiming their internal polls are at 41-35, a gap of 6.

The halfwits on the left immediately seized on this as a panic attack on Whaleoil, rather than a deliberate take down of a poll that has no credibility. Chris Trotter wrote at the Daily Bog:

“Something Very, Very Different”: Why rumours of Labour’s internal poll numbers are giving the Nats the heebie-jeebies

Who knows which National Party Chris is thinking about but the only thing Labour’s rigged poll has given National is a lot of laughs.   Read more »

Tagged:

UMR doesn’t stand for Unbelievably Massaged Result

Different? What do you mean different?

Different? What do you mean different?

Labour’s pollsters UMR have allegedly done a poll that shows Labour 41-35 down instead of 47-31 down as all the other polls show.

People in the polling industry are very surprised with these numbers, and consider them to be highly unlikely.

They also consider it highly unlikely that a reputable polling company like UMR would ever get a poll that is this far different from all the other polls.

The issue for UMR is that if their brand gets damaged by showing crazy poll results that don’t reflect reality some of their commercial candidates will axe them.

Unbelievable political polls damage polling organisations reputations, and cost them work. UMR will be desperate to release the actual polls to show they are not dodgy.

Labour should release the raw data from the poll to prove that it is kosher.   Read more »

20 years of preferred PM and Labour’s disconnection with reality

Colmar Brunton published via Twitter two charts showing the last 20 years of the Preferred PM statistics:

Source/ Colmar Brunton

Source/ Colmar Brunton

Source/ Colmar Brunton

Source/ Colmar Brunton

Read more »

Labour’s Poll Problems

Sources inside Fraser House are saying that Labour has had some very good internal polls.

They are talking about National being in the low forties and Labour in the mid to high thirties. This is allegedly based on UMR’s internal polls.

This has lead to some self congratulation inside the Labour camp, but they should be a bit careful about internal polls.

Especially when the two most recent public polls show that there is no closing of the gap between Labour & National.

TV3 Poll

National            47.0%
Labour               31.1%

Gap                     15.9%      Read more »

Tagged:

Labour’s race-baiting wasn’t their Orewa, will someone take Twyford out back and sort him out please

3news

Andrew Little and Phil Twyford must be held accountable for their race-baiting and dog-whistling housing claims.

Touted to the caucus as the king hit they have been waiting for to get John Key and Labour’s own version of Orewa, it has failed utterly.

Strangely though the print media are silent on these last two polls from reputable companies, preferring instead to wax lyrical about Roy Morgan’s dodgy out of whack poll because it delivers an anti-government slant.

The 3News-Reid Research poll is devastating for Little and Labour.

Full results:

3 News/Reid Research poll, July 15-22, 1000 voters
Margin of error: +/-3.1 percent

Party standings

National – 47 percent, up 0.6 percent (on last poll in May)

Labour – 31.1 percent, up 0.7 percent    Read more »

Labour’s racist dog-whistle fails, One News poll delivers bad news

One News delivered the bad news for Labour last night, with barely a move in the two main parties. Their dog whistle, race baiting has failed…Phil Twyford’s promises to caucus of this being Labour’s Orewa have proven to be as hollow as him.

In the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll, National has 47% party support; down 1% on May.

Labour is on 32%; up 1%.

And while they will be pleased to be heading in the right direction Labour would possibly have hoped for more of a lift given the media attention their Housing spokesman Phil Twyford’s campaign over foreign buyers in the Auckland property market has received.

But leader, Andrew Little, says, “I always have taken the view that people are biding their time with Labour.

“They’re just seeing whether we’re serious, whether we’re capable of taking on controversial issues.

“It’s pretty clear to me, when I talk to a lot of people, they like what we’re saying, they like what we’re doing, but they’re saying, ‘We just want to make sure you guys are serious.’

“So, I reckon the change will come but I’m perfectly happy with where things are at in terms of polling we’re getting”.

Read more »

National’s slide to oblivion starts…oh wait it’s the Roy Morgan

The latest dodgy Roy Morgan poll is out and predictably it shows a correction from the last poll where National was sky high.

During June support for National was down 4.5% to 49.5% after the 2015 NZ Budget. However, despite the fall the National-led Government has a large lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance with their support at 39% (up 3%), according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would win and be able to govern in their own right.

Support for National supporters the Maori Party was unchanged at 1% while support is unchanged for both Act NZ 1% and United Future 0%.

Support has increased for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties: Labour’s support is now at 26% (up 0.5%), Greens 13% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 6.5% (up 0.5%). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 2% (up 1%).

Read more »

Tagged:

They should get Farrar to do their polling

The UK pollsters are in a bit of a pickle, for getting their polls so dreadfully wrong.

Polling companies face an independent inquiry into how they got the election result so wrong after nearly every poll failed to predict the extent of the Conservative victory.

An industry association for pollsters admitted that eve-of-vote surveys “were clearly not as accurate as we would like” and needed independent investigation.

The British Polling Council said it would look into the causes of the “apparent bias” against the Tories and make recommendations for future polls.

The independent investigation was announced after polling companies admitted their predictions had fared badly, but struggled to explain what had gone wrong.    Read more »