Another poll with Nats over 50%, but media says they are failing

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows National with over 50% of the vote despite the best efforts of Nicky Hager, Kim Dotcom and the hacker, in league with their bought media activists, to manipulate an election result.

While National is still riding high at 50.8 per cent, the poll shows it taking a 4.3 per cent hit after the release of Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics linking Key’s office to political attacks by Right-wing blogger Cameron Slater.

Uhm…no it shows the previous poll was probably a rogue with National too high and this one is more in line with others.

National would still be in pole position to form the next government but the party’s strategists will be alarmed that it has shed support in the opening weeks of the campaign.

National’s nightmare scenario is seeing its support slide to 45 per cent or below, which could see it tossed out of office, depending on which minor party holds the balance of power.

The rise of NZ First leader Winston Peters could see him as kingmaker, with today’s poll putting his party on 4 per cent. Peters, who is 70 next year, has the odds in his favour of crossing the 5 per cent threshold for winning seats in Parliament.

The poll follows a chaotic start to the campaign after Hager’s bombshell allegations that a senior staffer in Key’s office was a conduit to Slater’s WhaleOil blog, infamous for publishing salacious details of Auckland Mayor Len Brown’s extra-marital affair.

Read more »

12th rogue poll in a row shows Labour under 30%

TVNZ’s OneNews/Colmar Brunton poll has more bad news for Labour and for David Cunliffe.

It is the 12th poll in a row that shows them under 30% and sliding while National rides high.

David Cunliffe’s poll ratings are also the lowest since he took over from David Shearer.

The number aren’t good for Labour.

140727_One_News_Colmar_Brunton_poll_21-25_July_2014_prelim Read more »

ONE News Colmar Brunton poll tonight


A preview…

Let’s see the damage done by Cunliffe’s lunch with the Sex Pest, his scarf, the holiday and … himself.


Labour’s worst poll result in 15 years in Digipoll


We are voting positive #forabetternz...for National

We are voting positive #forabetternz…for National

The latest Herald Digipoll is out and The Cunliffe experiment is shown for what it is…abject failure.

Labour’s support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.

Its 26.5 per cent support is a slide of four points since June.

With just two months to the election, Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.

On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.

National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.

Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

The second-most-preferred PM out of Labour MPs is David Shearer, with 2.2 per cent, followed by Jacinda Ardern on 1.4 per cent.  Read more »

Should polling companies be politically neutral? Or at least seen to be?


This was the RM headline last night.  And it struck me that it is heavily slanted.

To prove it, let me turn it around:

National (51%) increases election willing lead over Labour/Greens (38.5%) after National’s messages of steady economic management and David Cunliffe heads off for a skiing holiday in Queenstown.

See  my point?   Read more »

Labour has massive problems

Fairfax/Ipsos presents their data a little differently from other pollsters, but it does give you an insight into where Labour is in serious trouble.

National’s total support is 54.8% and Labour’s is 24.9%.

Let’s look at the demographics to find where Labour is in trouble.

With men:



In the Upper North Island outside of Auckland:


Obviously Labour banging on about the holiday highway is working a treat…for National. Read more »

Fairfax/Ipsos poll hammers the nails into Cunliffe’s coffin

If you thought the Roy Morgan poll was bad the Fairfax poll basically confirms that neither is rogue with similar numbers to each other.

National appears to be tightening its grip on the election, with our latest poll cementing its massive lead.

Today’s stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political poll has National on 54.8 per cent support – a staggering 30-point lead over Labour, but down 1.7 points from our last poll.

John Key is also preferred prime minister among most voters, at 53.7 per cent support to David Cunliffe’s 12.8.

Click here for full graphics.

The only glimmer of good news for Labour is that it appears to have reversed the slide in our previous poll and has risen 1.7 points, to 24.9 per cent.

But pollster Matt Benson said undecided voters were shaping up as an important factor and their numbers had been volatile in the previous three polls.

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

That will bring little cheer to Labour, however, as it prepares for its election campaign launch, now just weeks away.

Read more »

Labour’s preferred poll delivers more bad news

The Roy Morgan poll is Labour’s preferred poll, it is the one they claim is the most accurate. The news this week isn’t good for either Labour or David Cunliffe.

In fact it is rather demoralising.

I doubt the paid shills at The Standard will even mention it…they are rather ostrich like these days with polls.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong rise in support for National (51%, up 3%) and a substantial lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%) just more than two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party is 23.5% (down 4.5% – the lowest since November 22-24, 2011 – just before the 2011 New Zealand Election), the Greens are 15% (up 3% – the highest since August 26-September 8, 2013), New Zealand First is 6% (up 0.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1.5% (down 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

Read more »


Latest Roy Morgan shows Labour mired in 20s

The latest poll from the left-wings favourite pollster, Roy Morgan, shows that Labour remains mired in the 20s. Every polling company now shows labour stuck in the debilitating and moral sapping 20s.

The Cunliffe Caper has failed, and with less than 80 days until the election they are in desperate trouble.

Things with polls have got so bad that the left-wing blogs no no longer report on them.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for National (48%, down 1.5%) but National are still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, unchanged).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has raised slightly overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is unchanged at 28%, the Greens are unchanged at 12%, New Zealand First is 5.5% (up 1.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 2.5% (unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.  Read more »

Labour’s poll nightmares continue, how long can Cunliffe last?


Tonight saw the release of another 3News Reid Research poll delivering a hammer blow to Labour’s under siege caucus.

Headline results are:

National: 49.7% down 0.6%
Labour: 27.3 % down 2.2%
Greens 12.7% up 2.5%
NZ First: 3.6% down 2%
Maori: 1.5%
Act: 0.4%
United Future 0.0%
Internet Mana: 1.8%
Conservative: 2.8%  Read more »