The clock is ticking after latest poll disaster


The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll is out and if you thought David Cunliffe’s position yesterday was precarious then today he may as well jump off the cliff rather than be pushed by his angry caucus.

Labour’s support has slumped to its lowest level since the 2011 election, with leader David Cunliffe battling for survival after it emerged he intervened in a residency application for Chinese businessman Donghua Liu.

In the latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political poll, the party has dropped 6 percentage points to 23 per cent. National is soaring on 56 per cent, which would allow it to govern alone. Click here for full graphics.

Cunliffe has failed to stop his party’s slide in the poll since he took over as leader in September, and is now facing election humiliation. His support as preferred prime minister slipped to 11 per cent, down two points. Prime Minister John Key edged ahead, up three points to 51.4 per cent.

As he faced fire over the Liu allegations, Cunliffe insisted he retained the confidence of his caucus – but admitted he had broached the subject with senior colleagues.

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Uh oh, times up and the polls are going the wrong way

Dimpost has updated his poll of polls.

What jumps out at me here is the comparison with the last election. Labour are trending down, just like last time ‚Äď but now their votes are (mostly) going to National, not the Greens. Which makes sense to me: we have no idea what National plans to do in its third term, but that lack of vision is still preferable to being governed by a collection of left-wing parties who all hate each other but want to run the country together.

He produces a “bias corrected” chart…based on what he perceives are the bias of each poll.


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Labour’s poll disasters continue, latest Herald Digipoll out and Nats are over 50%

The David Cunliffe experiment has failed and Labour continues to languish below rating that former leader David Shearer enjoyed.

The latest NZ Herald Digipoll has been released and it clearly shows Labour has no traction…and that a carbon tax is an electoral killer for the Greens.


The poll has National on 50.4 per cent (down 0.4), Labour on 30.5 (up 1), and the Green Party on 10.7 (down 2.4).

Of the smaller parties, NZ First is on 3.6 (no change), the Conservative Party 1.5 (up 0.2), Maori Party 0.8 (up 0.6) and Act on 0.7 (down 0.1). United Future is on 0.1 (up from zero).

Internet Mana got 1.4 – the combined total of 0.5% for Mana, the 0.2% for Internet Party and the 0.7% who said Internet Mana.

There were 12.2 per cent undecided voters.

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Two polls, Labour in big trouble


Both major television networks have released their polls tonight and they largely agree…Labour is in trouble and the so-called scandals of Judith COllins and Maurice Williamson have not hurt National at all.

The 3 News Poll is dreadful reading for Labour, sliding into the 20s

National: 50.3% up 4.4%
Labour: 29.5% down 1.7%
Greens: 10.2%
NZ First 5.6%
Conservatives 2.3%
Maori: 0.6%
Act: 0.5%
Internet Party: 0.6%

Preferred PM

John Key: 43.1%
David Cunliffe: 9.8%

When asked about the budget there is more bad news for Labour.

Do you like National’s Budget ‘family package’? 73% say Yes¬†and more importantly¬†67% of¬†Labour voters say Yes.

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Labour getting ready to shaft Shane Jones?


Further to my earlier post about UMR polling by the Labour party there is this wee gem included.

Which of the following is closer to your own view even if not quite right?

o Shane Jones delivered amusing one liners but his political career was accident prone and did not amount to much. The most attention he got was for using his parliamentary credit card to pay for pornographic movies.
o Shane Jones was one of the few politicians who tells it like it is and with his attacks on Countdown has been the most effective Labour politician this year. He will be a huge loss to Labour especially amongst Maori and blue collar voters.

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Is Labour looking at taxing polluters to pay for tax cuts for everyone else?

via the tipline

It would seem so, their polling company, the multinational UMR, is asking people some very leading questions.

Our tipster says:

Hi Cam,

I occasionally get sent invitations from UMR to fill out online surveys. I thought maybe some of your readers would be interested in some of the questions they have been asking recently. Could the ‚Äėcarbon tax on polluters‚Äô be Labour‚Äôs next big election bribe?

I also find it rather amusing how loaded some of the questions are. Are they trying to influence my vote through their surveys?

How likely are you to support a carbon tax on polluters with the money raised by the tax returned to all New Zealanders by making up to $10,000 of your earnings tax free?

If a political party proposed a personal tax cut funded by a charge on climate polluters, what impact would that have on your vote?

o   Much more likely to vote for that party
o   A little more likely to vote for that party
o   No difference
o   A little less likely to vote for that party
o   Much less likely to vote for that party

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Two bad polls for Labour, Cunliffe has zero traction


One News and 3 News both had polls tonight. Both polls show that David Cunliffe is failing as Labour leader and is now plumbing the depths that Bill English charted when he was leader of National.

English debuted as leader around 14% and slowly slid into insignificance. David Cunliffe is the same. He must now be under real pressure both from his caucus and his members. It is telling that like his caucus, just one third of Labour voters prefer him as PM. In the OneNews/Colmar Brunton he is on 8% and in the 3News/Reid Research he is on 9%, well below the worst results David Shearer ever produced.

Labour’s smear campaign against Judith Collins and Hekia Parata have failed demonstrably along with their stupid crony capitalism campaign.They should give it up, it hasn’t worked at all.

As for their vaunted forestry policy, that has gone down with voters like a cup of cold sick. Instead of launching a policy for a few elite forest owners they should have been talking policy idea that resonate with middle NZ but they haven’t, instead talking over their heads.

All the game changers they’ve announced have indeed changed the game…in favour of John Key and the National party.¬† Read more »

Labour poll-axed in Digipoll

in big twubble

The latest Herald/Digipoll is out and the reading isn’t at all good for David Cunliffe or for Labour.

Labour has a two in the front of their number.

Labour’s support has sunk nearly six points and it is polling only 29.5 per cent in the¬†Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The popularity of leader David Cunliffe has fallen by almost the same amount, to 11.1 per cent. That is worse than the 12.4 per cent worst rating of former leader David Shearer.

National could govern alone with 50.8 per cent if the poll were translated to an election result.

The popularity of John Key as Prime Minister has climbed by 4.6 points to 66.5 per cent.¬† Read more »

Please come and participate in today’s Whaleoil [POLLS]

There are multiple questions, please go to the web page on the web site to participate fully.  More over the break.

I believe these are the sorts of issues currently being polled, so it will be interesting to see how Whaleoil readers compare to a professionally run poll asking roughly the same questions.

Len Brown - Did you vote for him

  • No (55%, 823 Votes)
  • Not registered as an elector in Auckland at the time (41%, 610 Votes)
  • Yes (4%, 51 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,484

Loading ... Loading ...

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A message for Cunliffe?

You’ve gotta love context driven ads. Looks at this effort from the NZ Herald.

A message for David Cunliffe? Context driven advertising adds hurt of its own to Labour

A message for David Cunliffe? Context driven advertising adds hurt of its own to Labour

Corin Dann was almost in tears last night, but being a top notch political analyst thought good weather was a factor in Nationals surge. The Greens appear to have been rumbled as complete loons, what with shrieking about racism when none was on offer, living in a castle, twerking and then cuddling up to Kim Dotcom.

Andrea Vance in Fairfax seems equally perplexed and she puts it down to Cunliffe’s lack of exposure.

Cunliffe suffered from a lack of exposure in the last month, dropping two points in the preferred prime minister stakes to 10 per cent.  Key maintained 43 per cent from the last TVNZ poll in October.

I think we saw plenty of him flip flopping and trying to explain the debacle that was his baby bonus.¬† Read more »