polling

What the polls are showing

3news

Last night was yet another poll that showed that Kiwi voters don;t give a toss about the shrill cacophony of whining from the left wing about Dirty Politics.

In fact it is showing that the voters not only don’t care but are locking in support strongly behind John Key and National.

Dirty politics has always been and continues to be a beltway issue.

The only thing it has done is increase my traffic and my reach.

The polls also show something else which should send a shiver down the spine of those who think the chinless scarf wearer currently running Labour would be Prime Minister.

The polls are showing that contrary to popular wisdom the National party actually does have support partner options.

With Winston Peters and Colin Craig’s cult both polling either above or close to the threshold, then with wasted vote it is likely that both will make it.

That gives John Key options…significant options. ¬† Read more »

Two polls herald Labour’s disaster

Two polls this morning show that Labour’s hope that “Dirty Politics” was going to be their salvation was misplaced.

The NZ Herald/Digipoll is really bad news for them.

National’s polling has barely flickered in the three weeks since the¬†Dirty Politics¬†book was launched and the party could still govern alone on 50.1 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

Prime Minister John Key told the¬†Herald¬†the results reflected “a huge fatigue factor” with Dirty Politics.

Their July poll was clearly out of whack and the poll has settled back to usual levels.

National support

The full numbers for the Herald/Digipoll are:

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Read more »

One News/Colmar Brunton shows Dirty Politics barely registering

 

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Photo/ TVNZ

The left wing conspiracy and smear job initiated with illegal hacking against me and now being pushed hard by the left wing isn’t working.

They have been working towards this all year and now as more and more revealing details are released we can see it is a smear job aimed squarely at National.

The Fact that not a single email be tween me and Labour MPs, nor Facebook messages with the same, and ditto Green party and Winston shows that this is a targeted political smear.

They dare to claim the high ground.

If you believe it was mere coincidence that Labour’s campaign slogan is “Vote Positive” and isn’t related at all to the illegal hacking of my systems then I have a bridge I can sell you.

The good news for voters is that National remains strong and largely unaffected, with changes at the margin of error only.

The campaigning of the complicit media in aiding and abetting a criminal conspiracy to hijack our elections isn’t working.

National has taken a ‘Dirty Politics’ hit in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll, down two points to 48% while Labour has gained two and is sitting at 28%.

The poll accounts for the effects of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book but not this weekend’s developments. ¬† Read more »

Another poll with Nats over 50%, but media says they are failing

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows National with over 50% of the vote despite the best efforts of Nicky Hager, Kim Dotcom and the hacker, in league with their bought media activists, to manipulate an election result.

While National is still riding high at 50.8 per cent, the poll shows it taking a 4.3 per cent hit after the release of Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics linking Key’s office to political attacks by Right-wing blogger Cameron Slater.

Uhm…no it shows the previous poll was probably a rogue with National too high and this one is more in line with others.

National would still be in pole position to form the next government but the party’s strategists will be alarmed that it has shed support in the opening weeks of the campaign.

National’s nightmare scenario is seeing its support slide to 45 per cent or below, which could see it tossed out of office, depending on which minor party holds the balance of power.

The rise of NZ First leader Winston Peters could see him as kingmaker, with today’s poll putting his party on 4 per cent. Peters, who is 70 next year, has the odds in his favour of crossing the 5 per cent threshold for winning seats in Parliament.

The poll follows a chaotic start to the campaign after Hager’s bombshell allegations that a senior staffer in Key’s office was a conduit to Slater’s WhaleOil blog, infamous for publishing salacious details of Auckland Mayor Len Brown’s extra-marital affair.

Read more »

12th rogue poll in a row shows Labour under 30%

TVNZ’s OneNews/Colmar Brunton poll has more bad news for Labour and for David Cunliffe.

It is the 12th poll in a row that shows them under 30% and sliding while National rides high.

David Cunliffe’s poll ratings are also the lowest since he took over from David Shearer.

The number aren’t good for Labour.

140727_One_News_Colmar_Brunton_poll_21-25_July_2014_prelim Read more »

ONE News Colmar Brunton poll tonight

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A preview…

Let’s see the damage done by Cunliffe’s lunch with the Sex Pest, his scarf, the holiday and … himself.

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Labour’s worst poll result in 15 years in Digipoll

 

We are voting positive #forabetternz...for National

We are voting positive #forabetternz…for National

The latest Herald Digipoll is out and The Cunliffe experiment is shown for what it is…abject failure.

Labour’s support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.

Its 26.5 per cent support is a slide of four points since June.

With just two months to the election, Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.

On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.

National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.

Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

The second-most-preferred PM out of Labour MPs is David Shearer, with 2.2 per cent, followed by Jacinda Ardern on 1.4 per cent.¬† Read more »

Should polling companies be politically neutral? Or at least seen to be?

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This was the RM headline last night.  And it struck me that it is heavily slanted.

To prove it, let me turn it around:

National (51%) increases election willing lead over Labour/Greens (38.5%) after National’s¬†messages of steady economic management and David Cunliffe heads off for a skiing holiday in Queenstown.

See ¬†my point? ¬† Read more »

Labour has massive problems

Fairfax/Ipsos presents their data a little differently from other pollsters, but it does give you an insight into where Labour is in serious trouble.

National’s total support is 54.8% and Labour’s is 24.9%.

Let’s look at the demographics to find where Labour is in trouble.

With men:

 

ipsos-poll-men

In the Upper North Island outside of Auckland:

ipsos-poll-ni

Obviously Labour banging on about the holiday highway is working a treat…for National. Read more »

Fairfax/Ipsos poll hammers the nails into Cunliffe’s coffin

If you thought the Roy Morgan poll was bad the Fairfax poll basically confirms that neither is rogue with similar numbers to each other.

National appears to be tightening its grip on the election, with our latest poll cementing its massive lead.

Today’s stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political poll has National on 54.8 per cent support – a staggering 30-point lead over Labour, but down 1.7 points from our last poll.

John Key is also preferred prime minister among most voters, at 53.7 per cent support to David Cunliffe’s 12.8.

Click here for full graphics.

The only glimmer of good news for Labour is that it appears to have reversed the slide in our previous poll and has risen 1.7 points, to 24.9 per cent.

But pollster Matt Benson said undecided voters were shaping up as an important factor and their numbers had been volatile in the previous three polls.

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

That will bring little cheer to Labour, however, as it prepares for its election campaign launch, now just weeks away.

Read more »