polling

Is it time to #changetheopposition?

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One News has released their latest Colmar Brunton poll. After months of fabricated crisis after crisis this is the result…

It’s a shocker for Labour and Andrew Little is calling the poll “bogus”.

There are fresh worries for Labour following the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

The party has slipped three points to 26 per cent. That’s the lowest it’s been in the ONE News poll since the last election when it recorded 25 per cent.

National, however, remains in fine form riding high, steady this month at 48 per cent, the same result it picked up on election night in 2014.    Read more »

Comment of the Day

Danyl makes a perceptive comment at his blog:

There were a bunch of stories the other day aboutJohn Key washing his car, and it generated contemptuous groans from the online left. But if you’re someone who isn’t obsessed with politics, seeing the head of government making fun of himself, washing his car, spending time with his son – these are, y’know, likable things to most people. If I think my way through most of our crop of successful politicians its not hard to think of the stories they want to tell about themselves. Bill English is a gruff farmer. Paula Bennett is a feisty westie. Judith Collins is Crusher. Winston Peters is a wily old fox who keeps ’em honest.

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Which pollsters can you trust, and which are bought and paid for?

We should have something like this here.

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In the process of being an analyser of polls, Nate Silver has had to figure out which are actually delivering reliable and honest results, and which are essentially fronts that get you the answer you’re paying for.

We know that Colmar Brunton are one of the most variable and have a clear bias towards Labour, for example.

As for Horizon, they had the Conservative party in government as part of the coalition with National right now.

Whenever the Fraser House spy tells me that Labour are polling in the low to mid-thirties, and then paid-for polls come out, you can reliably subtract 4-6 points, every time.

 

– 538

Looking behind the numbers of Colmar Brunton

Colmar Brunton have helpfully provided a look behind the numbers, especially regarding the MOU announcement of the Greens and Labour.

This is not good reading so the one Green party member who reads this blog should look away now.

Following the announcement of the Labour and Green Party Memorandum of Understanding, support for the Labour Party increased significantly, from 26% to 31%, and support for New Zealand First decreased, from 11% to 7%. Support for the Conservative Party also increased, from 0.2% to 1.2%. No other changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Please note: We have displayed these results to 1 decimal place to aid significance testing.

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Latest poll shows a NZ First/National government could govern easily

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The latest One News/Colmar Brunton Poll is out and the status quo remains.

There are some small margin of error movements but essentially National is still riding high after 8 and a half years in government.

  • National 48% (down from 50)
  • Labour 29% (up from 28)
  • Greens 12% (up from 10)
  • NZ First 9%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Conservative Party 1%

That Conservative party number will collapse to nothing in coming months when the truth start coming out about Colin Craig.   Read more »

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Farrar provides some facts to counter the shrill headlines predicting John Key’s demise

The Media party have piled in on the latest Newshub poll suggesting that a small, less than the margin of error, drop in popularity of John Key is the beginning of the end of him.

They have ignored that Andrew Little is below Winston Peters in the same poll and he dropped even more than John Key.

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger David Farrar takes time out from his hectic touring schedule to present some facts that seem to have escaped the commentators in the Media party.

The Newshub story says Key has plummeted as Preferred PM as he has dropped 1.5% in 6 months. This is of course not even statistically significant let alone a plummet of any kind.

I thought it would be useful to compare the Preferred PM ratings of May 2016, with May 2007 – the same point in Labour’s third term.

In May 2007 the PM was at 30% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the PM is at 37% Preferred PM.

In May 2007 the Opposition Leader was at 32% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the Opposition Leader is at 9% Preferred PM.

So Clark was trailing by 2% in May 2007, while in May 2016 Key leads Little by 28%.   Read more »

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Key “plummets” says Newshub…really? Since when has 1.8% been a plummet?

Newshub are pushing out their latest poll:

National though is steady on 47 percent on the poll — a drop of just 0.3 percent — and similar to the Election night result.

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However, National and its support partners would not be able to put together a government — they would need the support of Winston Peters.

Mr Peters would once again be Kingmaker — if he sided with Labour and the Greens, they would become the Government.

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So Labour, tell us again what your internal polling is showing

Labour MPs are being lied to by Andrew Little’s dream team. They keep telling them that National is on 41% and Labour is on 32% in their internal polling. They also claim that John Key’s net approvals are falling.

There is a massive problem with both of those propositions. Our own exclusive polling for INCITE: Politics shows Andrew Little’s net approvals are deeply negative while John Key’s net approvals are positive.

Secondly, public polls keep coming out showing a massive difference between Labour’s whispering campaign to talk up their own polling.

The latest being the Roy Morgan poll.

During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First’s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners fell slightly with the Maori Party, down 0.5% to 1.0%, Act NZ was 1% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5% to their highest support since November 2015), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 9.5% (down 3%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

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I bet Labour are doing this, no wonder they chase passing cars so often

The key to good governance and maintaining power is through solid polling. All good political parties poll and they use reputable companies with a track record of success.

National uses David Farrar’s company, Curia. They are New Zealand’s best political pollster in my opinion. If I am ever asked by a potential candidate who to recommend for polling, the answer is always Farrar and if they refuse to entertain polling with him then I refuse to advise or coach them.

Facebook and Twitter though are now being pitched to politicians and so-called strategists to use them for polling. This is folly and will deliver the political equivalent of fool’s gold.

Digital consultants are making a play for down-ballot campaigns’ polling budgets. They’re now pitching Facebook and Twitter as ways to gauge voters’ opinions on issues and candidates. In reality, social media “listening” can only do so much for a candidate running below the federal level.

When it comes to state legislative campaigns specifically, polling remains one of the best tools. There’s just no replacement for accurate, empirical results. As consultants for many down-ballot campaigns, we emphasize putting resources toward research in our clients’ strategic plans. While social media might represent a no-cost or low-cost option, don’t let budget be an excuse not to proceed with polling.   Read more »

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The PM’s favourite pollster at Curia releases the inconvenient truth

I use Curia to do our polling for INCITE:Politics, so I don’t mind running a little advert for David when he can actually tear himself away from theatre reviews, walking reports and angsty questions about technology upgrades.

The situation in NZ was:

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National’s party vote is lower than a year ago but slightly higher than three years ago. Read more »

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