polling

So Labour, tell us again what your internal polling is showing

Labour MPs are being lied to by Andrew Little’s dream team. They keep telling them that National is on 41% and Labour is on 32% in their internal polling. They also claim that John Key’s net approvals are falling.

There is a massive problem with both of those propositions. Our own exclusive polling for INCITE: Politics shows Andrew Little’s net approvals are deeply negative while John Key’s net approvals are positive.

Secondly, public polls keep coming out showing a massive difference between Labour’s whispering campaign to talk up their own polling.

The latest being the Roy Morgan poll.

During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First’s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners fell slightly with the Maori Party, down 0.5% to 1.0%, Act NZ was 1% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5% to their highest support since November 2015), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 9.5% (down 3%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

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I bet Labour are doing this, no wonder they chase passing cars so often

The key to good governance and maintaining power is through solid polling. All good political parties poll and they use reputable companies with a track record of success.

National uses David Farrar’s company, Curia. They are New Zealand’s best political pollster in my opinion. If I am ever asked by a potential candidate who to recommend for polling, the answer is always Farrar and if they refuse to entertain polling with him then I refuse to advise or coach them.

Facebook and Twitter though are now being pitched to politicians and so-called strategists to use them for polling. This is folly and will deliver the political equivalent of fool’s gold.

Digital consultants are making a play for down-ballot campaigns’ polling budgets. They’re now pitching Facebook and Twitter as ways to gauge voters’ opinions on issues and candidates. In reality, social media “listening” can only do so much for a candidate running below the federal level.

When it comes to state legislative campaigns specifically, polling remains one of the best tools. There’s just no replacement for accurate, empirical results. As consultants for many down-ballot campaigns, we emphasize putting resources toward research in our clients’ strategic plans. While social media might represent a no-cost or low-cost option, don’t let budget be an excuse not to proceed with polling.   Read more »

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The PM’s favourite pollster at Curia releases the inconvenient truth

I use Curia to do our polling for INCITE:Politics, so I don’t mind running a little advert for David when he can actually tear himself away from theatre reviews, walking reports and angsty questions about technology upgrades.

The situation in NZ was:

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National’s party vote is lower than a year ago but slightly higher than three years ago. Read more »

The delusions of the left

The left-wing is seeing hope in the Roy Morgan poll, despite Labour scoring their second lowest result since October 2014 when they polled 22.4%.

They are busily leaking internal poll results to bloggers like Martyn Bradbury who is treating Rob Salmond’s numbers as gospel. They are also leaking to unionists who are busily shilling details on Twitter.

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The problem with these leaks is that I conduct my own polling via INCITE: Politics and Curia polling. The reason I use Curia is because they, and David Farrar, are simply the best pollsters in New Zealand.

Our poll results measuring favourability don’t show that at all. In fact they show that Andrew Little’s favourables are tanking and John Key’s rose a little.

Martyn Bradbury meanwhile is spinning up Labour’s own internal polling, which if they still used UMR might be believable, but since they stopped paying their bills anything coming from Labour is going to be rubbish.  Read more »

Little takes Labour to Cunliffe levels in latest poll

The left-wing are all cock-a-hoop about the latest Roy Morgan poll.

For the life of me I can’t understand why.

During April support for National fell 3.5% to 42.5% – the lowest for two years since April – May 2014, now only 2% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40.5% (down 1.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 12.5% (up 3.5% to their highest level of support in twenty years) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, up 0.5% to 1.5%, Act NZ was 1.5% (up 0.5%) – Act NZ’s highest level of support since late 2014 and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 26% (down 2%), Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3.5% to 12.5% – its highest level of support since the 1996 NZ Election. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).

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Wrong again

Martyn Bradbury is the most wrong person in New Zealand politics.

He’s been so wrong so many times I suggested he change his name to Wrongly Wrongson.

On Friday he wrote:

I don’t think this latest evidence of abuse of political power by Key will be so easily shrugged off.

It’s not because it’s the most compelling evidence of his abuses of power. The mass surveillance lies, the Dirty Politics scandal, the ramming through of Parliament laws he wants all of these and so many more are stronger evidence, but this people can grasp.

People loved their flag, and knowing Key met to secretly fund a campaign to get rid of it even in the last dying moments of the campaign will insult many and nothing moves polls like a voter scorned.

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Farrar on the One News Poll

David Farrar has some useful comparisons on the polls at the same stage of the electoral cycle:

It is almost half way through National’s third term, so it is useful to compare it to the same poll halfway through National’s second term.

In April 2013 National was at 43% and Labour 36% – a 7% gap.

In April 2016 National is at 50% and Labour 28% – a 22% gap.   Read more »

Poll carnage for Labour with latest Colmar Brunton poll

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Labour and Andrew Little are in real trouble in the latest Colmar Brunton poll.

The popularity of John Key’s government is showing no sign of waning, with support for National climbing in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

However it’s a very different story for Labour, with the party and its leader Andrew Little taking a big hit this month.

National has climbed three points to 50 percent – a level it hasn’t been at since August 2014 – while Labour is down a whopping four points to 28 percent.

Crucially, this is the first time Labour has slipped below 30 percent since the election.   Read more »

Another poll confirms Labour’s 35% pipe-dream still isn’t real

I know it is the Roy Morgan, but Labour have claimed for years that this is the most accurate poll, despite the numbers going up and down like a whore’s drawers.

This poll shows that Labour are still languishing below 30%, much lower than when David Shearer was leader.

During March support for National fell 2.5% to 46% – the lowest since September 2015, now only 4% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42% (up 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% (up 3%) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, unchanged at 1%, Act NZ was 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 28% (up 1%), Greens 14% (down 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3% to 9% – its highest level of support in over a decade since August 2005. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 1%).

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Why even the Media party no longer trust Labour

The Media party really don’t like John Key.

For a couple of elections they’ve tried really hard to unseat the government with stings, smears and attacks. Bizarrely, last election there was an attack on a journalist and media personality in an attempt to get rid of John Key.

For a couple of months senior Labour MPs have been putting it about that their internal polling before Christmas was showing Labour on 35%.

No public poll in the last three years has shown Labour on 35%…not since David Shearer was leader did they come close.

Journalists were privately laughing, but those senior Labour MPs were insistent on the ‘truth’ of their polling.

Either the public polls were wrong or Labour’s poll was wrong…or the poll wasn’t wrong; Labour was spinning it better than it was.

It isn’t a coincidence that this is the same issue that raised its head during the election when Labour and their various proxies, like Rob Salmond, were putting it about that Labour were higher in their own polling than the public polls. It all got drowned out in the Dirty Politics hit job…but at one stage it was stated Labour’s polling was at 35% when on election night it was a full 10% lower. Support doesn’t evaporate that much, that fast.   Read more »

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