polling

Britain’s “surprise” right of centre win – similar to National’s “surprise” right of centre win

Britain’s voters have delivered a painful blow not just to the Labour Party but also to the opinion pollsters, who had suggested a very different outcome to Thursday’s election.

With votes counted in all 650 constituencies, the Conservatives had won an overall majority of 331 seats in the House of Commons with Labour doomed to languish on the opposition benches with 232 seats.

The result came as a complete shock following months of polls which showed the two big parties running neck-and-neck with neither close to winning an overall majority.

“There’s only one opinion poll that counts and that’s the one on election day and I’m not sure that’s ever been truer than it is today,” Prime Minister David Cameron said after winning his own seat, Witney.

The polls had converged to suggest the Conservatives and Labour were tied or within a point or two of each other on about 32 or 33 percent of the vote share apiece. In fact, the Conservatives won about 37 percent to around 31 for Labour.

Such was the disbelief when the exit poll of people who had actually voted came out on Thursday night that Paddy Ashdown, a former leader of the Liberal Democrats, vowed to “publicly eat my hat” on live television if it turned out to be right.

Ashdown will now struggle to live down the comment as the Lib Dems suffered even heavier losses than the exit poll predicted. “Paddy Ashdown’s hat” acquired its own Twitter account and jokes have been flourishing online.

John Curtice, a prominent elections expert and president of the British Polling Council, said it would launch an inquiry into what had gone wrong, led by an independent statistician.

He said there were two broad possible explanations: a strong last-minute swing to the Conservatives, or polling problems.

That not an exhaustive list of reasons, as we’ve learned from our own election. Read more »

Dirty Media went all in over ponytail and boost Nats poll ratings

heraldpoll-apr-2015

The media, especially NZME. went all in over the ponytail story. All they achieved was pushing National back over 50% in the latest poll.

Half of the poll was taken before the story blew up…imagine how high the Nats would have been if they’d taken all of the poll after the story.

Overall National polled 51 per cent, marginally up on party support in December from 50.4.

Its support among women, 45.4 per cent, is the same as it was in December.    Read more »

Tagged:

When will the knives come out for Andrew Little?

What do you mean I need a media person?

The recent Roy Morgan Poll has Labour back on 27%, signalling that Andrew Little’s honeymoon is over. He failed to do anything important in his first six months, and he is reaping what he has sowed.

Word from inside Labour is that fundraising has not been going well. The potential donors can’t see Labour being government so they don’t think it is worth giving them any money. This is exactly what happened with National under English. The donor community couldn’t see National winning so they didn’t give any money.   Read more »

Andrew Little’s 27%

Labour Leader Little Andrew

Labour Leader Little Andrew

The recent Roy Morgan poll has largely been overlooked by the media who were so busy chasing the story about John Key’s hair fetish that they ignored the big story of the week.

Labour and Andrew Little have tanked in the polls. They have fallen back to 27%. The brief honeymoon for Andrew Little has faded, mainly because he is deadly boring and seems to think that Charisma is an Olympic Gold Medal winning horse, rather than a necessary trait for a political leader.   Read more »

Labour’s favoured poll shows the Little experiment has faltered

Labour has dropped below 30% in Labour’s favoured poll, the Roy Morgan. Labour loves this poll, consistently claiming it is the most accurate.

Little’s tactical plan in helping Winston Peters take Northland is increasingly looking like a strategic blunder.

Labour were cock-a-hoop at National losing Northland, but they won’t be now with Winston Peters gaining legitimacy as the real opposition leader.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a slight weakening for the National-led Government 48% (down 1.5% since March), but retaining a strong lead over a potential Labour/Greens Coalition 41% (down 1%). The beneficiaries of this loss of support was New Zealand First 8.5% (up 2.5%) following on from NZ First Leader Winston Peter’s successful campaign at the recent Northland by-election according to today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand April poll.

Support for National has dropped to 45.5% (down 1%) and support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners the Maori Party has dropped to 1.5% (down 0.5%). Support for Key’s other two Coalition partners is unchanged: Act NZ 1% (unchanged) and United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).

Despite the rise in support for the Opposition Parties on the whole, Labour’s decision to advise Labour supporters to vote for NZ First Leader Winston Peters in the Northland by-election appears to have dented Labour support – now at 27.5% (down 3.5%). In contrast, support has increased strongly for both the Greens 13.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 8.5% (up 2.5%).

For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 0.5%).

roymorgan-april2015

Labour strategists won’t be liking this.

 

– Roy Morgan

When will Labour start getting nervous about their polling?

His leadership is a dog's breakfast and tastes like a dog's leavings

His leadership is a dog’s breakfast and tastes like a dog’s leavings

Andrew Little has been leader of the Labour Party since November 18th 2014. He got an initial bounce up from Labour’s terrible 25% of the vote, but as the latest poll out shows he has not improved Labour’s poll numbers at all in the last two months.

The problem for Little is that without a dramatic increase in the polls he will consign Labour to another loss. At the moment his career is entirely at the mercy of the moral leader of the opposition, Winston Peters, who could choose to shaft him nearer after the election if Little doesn’t have a lot more than the 31% of the vote he currently has.   Read more »

One News Poll bad news for Andrew Little, great for Winston

The latest One News Poll is out and it shows that Andrew Little isn’t making any gains both against National nor in the Preferred PM stakes.

Winston Peters on the other hand is winning in the Preferred PM stakes and is just 1% point off being able to claim the moral high ground and take the title of Leader of the Opposition for himself.

National’s by-election beating in Northland appears to have done little to change how the rest of New Zealand feels about the party, latest poll results show.

A ONE News Colmar Brunton poll conducted this month shows National Party support remains steady on 49%.

Labour Party support also remained unchanged on 31%, while the Green Party slipped to one percentage point to 9%.

New Zealand First, on the other hand, has seen a slight bounce – up one percentage point to 7%.

The Conservative Party is steady on 2%, as is the Act Party on 1%. Mana is back in the frame on 1%, while the Maori Party slipped down to 1%.

When converted into seats in Parliament, the poll results would mean National would take 60 seats, Labour would take 38, the Greens 11 and New Zealand First 9.

The Maori Party, Act and United Future would all have just one each.

Read more »

Northland, polls and polling vs final results

Arts, Lifestyle & Travel blogger David “Pinko” Farrar has a very brief post on the Northland polls.

  • Winston Peters NZF 16,089 54.5%
  • Mark Osborne NAT 11,648 39.4%
  • Willow-Jean Prime LAB 1,380 4.7%

Those polls were pretty accurate.

Read more »

National’s Northland Polls

UPFRONT_100512_hdr

Readers already know that the inside word is that Pinko Farrar’s polls closely matched the two media polls in the last week of the campaign, and the results on the night.

This is of no surprise to any political observer who knows Pinko or knows polls, Pinko always gets it right.

What is interesting is that there are complaints from inside caucus that they had to fund the campaign but they were not given any information about the polls.    Read more »

3News poll shows scale of Steve Joyce’s disaster

A 3News poll last night in Northland shows that Winston Peters is the man to beat, and shows us all that the much vaunted brains trust led by Steve Joyce has royally screwed up.

Yesterday the excuses were being trotted out by Joyce…Winston has 40 years of name recognition…blah, blah, blah.

Whatever, this is politics, play the game Steve…or go home.

The poll suggests that he and his nasty little side-kick should go home.

The 3 News-Reid Research poll of 500 Northland voters was taken between March 19 and 22, and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Preferred candidate?

  • Winston Peters – 54 percent
  • Mark Osborne – 34 percent
  • Willow Jean Prime – 10 percent
  • Others – 2 percent    Read more »