polling

National’s Northland Polls

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Readers already know that the inside word is that Pinko Farrar’s polls closely matched the two media polls in the last week of the campaign, and the results on the night.

This is of no surprise to any political observer who knows Pinko or knows polls, Pinko always gets it right.

What is interesting is that there are complaints from inside caucus that they had to fund the campaign but they were not given any information about the polls.    Read more »

3News poll shows scale of Steve Joyce’s disaster

A 3News poll last night in Northland shows that Winston Peters is the man to beat, and shows us all that the much vaunted brains trust led by Steve Joyce has royally screwed up.

Yesterday the excuses were being trotted out by Joyce…Winston has 40 years of name recognition…blah, blah, blah.

Whatever, this is politics, play the game Steve…or go home.

The poll suggests that he and his nasty little side-kick should go home.

The 3 News-Reid Research poll of 500 Northland voters was taken between March 19 and 22, and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Preferred candidate?

  • Winston Peters – 54 percent
  • Mark Osborne – 34 percent
  • Willow Jean Prime – 10 percent
  • Others – 2 percent    Read more »

Too close to call – Key

Yesterday I noted readers speculating that I was… speculating about the Northland by-election.  After all, there are no polls to back up my assertions.

Not sure if they were new around here, but of course I don’t rely on public polls, and I try to be wrong as little as possible, and I share my ideas and knowledge with you based on a lot more than sticking my wet finger in the air.

There are people inside National that have already called it for Winston.  That’s how close it is.

Even John Key is trotting out the message – the hope is that it might stir more National voters to come out and vote.

The Northland by-election could go either way, Prime Minister John Key says.

That’s a long way from his comments at the beginning of the campaign when he said Winston Peters didn’t stand a chance.

Since then one opinion poll has shown Mr Peters ahead of National’s Mark Osborne, and another has shown the leading candidates tied.

“We’re in for a huge fight,” Mr Key told reporters …  “I think we’re doing a good job and we’ve got a good candidate, but it could go either way now.”

There’s been record early voting ahead of Saturday’s by-election, but Mr Key isn’t reading anything in to that. Read more »

Latest Roy Morgan poll shows Nats are still riding high despite screw ups in Northland

Rpy Morgan, the poll the left-wing love to quote is still showing the National party riding high.

Sure there are ups and downs, but National is consistently polling over 45%. Labour does manage to squeak up a point…but isn’t making any headway.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National falling to 46.5% (down 2.5% since February). However, support has increased for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners with the Maori Party 2% (up 1%) and Act NZ 1% (up 1%) although United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).  Read more »

About those landline polls, huh?

The left wing like to blame poor poll results on the mistaken belief that pollsters who ring landlines are missing their supporters.

That myth has been busted over and over and over again, but still they persist in trying to blame something, anything for their shit results, without ever stopping for just a moment to realise that the problem is that the electorate just thinks they are tits. And have been since 2008.

Once again the evidence destroys their delusion.

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Andrew at Grumpolie looked at how the polls and polls of polls did, compared to the election result.  Read more »

Giving a liberal elite idiot a jolly good hiding

In Australia it looks like Jess Elgood, Fairfax’s polling boss, has managed to unite the polling industry against her.

The sledging is legendary.

LEADING pollsters have lined up to condemn the overreach of Fairfax’s new polling boss, Jess Elgood, when analysing Ipsos’s poll results in Monday’s Fairfax newspapers.

Ms Elgood was quoted in The Sydney Morning Herald saying: “They have read the writing on the wall for Mr Abbott … It possibly ­indicates that the voters have ­already moved on from Mr ­Abbott.”

The Ipsos poll found a three-percentage-point rise in the ­Coalition’s two-party vote such that it trailed the Labor Party 49 to 51 per cent.

The results did not fit the ­narrative of commentators that the Prime Minister’s poor ­performance was damaging the government’s standing.

Galaxy Research managing ­director David Briggs disputed Ms Elgood’s argument.

“The idea that the surge in ­government support is because voters are already factoring in ­Abbott’s potential departure doesn’t make intuitive sense,” he said.

Liberal Party pollster Mark Textor evoked a Monty Python theme, describing the Ipsos boss’s analysis as “desperately free from the ravages of quantitative ­evidence”.

Read more »

Latest poll, Nats and Labour up

How stupid are Labour?

The missing million don’t exist. Yet Labour still pines after them.

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The missing million have stayed away for so many elections now that you would have thought Labour would give up on them.

But no, they think that despite their failed social media campaign, their failed voter out reach campaign and their failure at the last three elections the missing million are going to turn up.

The media meanwhile are trying their best to help labour by declaring a big jump in the latest poll, ignoring that National also rose in the poll.   Read more »

Nats up again in latest poll, Labour is too, but they shanked the Greens and NZ First

Andrew little

Andrew Little digests the latest polls, discovers he’s eating gruel

The latest 3News poll is out and if you listened to Patrick Gower you’d think Labour and Andrew Little had a blinder.

The sad fact is they haven’t.

Commentators used to go on about National not having or cannibalising support partners…despite for three elections now they have managed to put together a credible coalition with support partners.

Labour on the other hand is gaining in the polls by cannibalising their support partners and still not having enough numbers to govern.

One rule of politics is you need to learn how to count, and Labour and Patrick Gower still can’t count.

3 News-Reid Research poll, taken January 20-28, 2015
1000 people polled, margin of error +/- 3.1 percent

  • National – 49.8 percent, up 2.8 percent on election night result
  • Labour – 29.1 percent, up 4 percent
  • Green – 9.3 percent, down 1.4 percent
  • New Zealand First – 6.9 percent, down 1.9 percent
  • Conservative – 2.7 percent, down 1.3 percent
  • Maori – 1.3 percent, N/C
  • Internet Mana – 0.6 percent, down 0.8 percent
  • ACT – 0.4 percent, down 0.3 percent
  • United Future – 0 percent, down 0.2 percent

Read more »

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Little better than the rest says TV3 poll, really?

55 percent you say? Is that all?

55 percent you say? Is that all?

According to a released TV3 poll Andrew Little is supposedly better than the rest of the muppets who were leader before him.

In attempt to get some good news out early for Andrew Little it appears TV3 has led early with the one result Andrew Little supposedly shines in.

He’s just two months into the job, but already Labour leader Andrew Little is outshining all his predecessors since Helen Clark, according today’s 3 News-Reid Research poll.

It’s the first political poll of the year and sets the tone for what’s set to be a rip-roaring battle of the leaders as Mr Little takes on Prime Minister John Key.

The poll shows 55 percent of voters think Mr Little is potentially a better match for Mr Key than his predecessors.

3 News Political Editor Patrick Gower says there’s a warning for the Prime Minister in today’s poll.

“Even National Party supporters think Little’s one to watch, that will force Key to sit up and take notice. There’s no room for complacency this term.

“Key’s popularity hasn’t been dented and Labour’s revolving leadership has struggled to get one over him, but this poll shows he may have finally met his match.”

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

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Political Poll on Sunday

I got a phone call yesterday asking for 8 minutes of my time. Being a helpful person I agreed to it and noted the kind of questions I was being asked.

I soon realised that it must have been paid for by either The Greens or Labour or was one on behalf of both. I was only asked what I thought about two political parties on one question as they didn’t give me any other options. I was asked what I thought about the Greens and then about Labour.

I was also asked about Andrew Little and about John Key. I was given a number of opportunities to say bad things about John Key which I declined to do. I was not asked to expand why I rated Key highly. However, when I rated Andrew Little at zero I was asked why I had scored him so poorly.

I told them because of his Angry Andrew yelling in parliament which is not Leader like behaviour.

Then I was asked about Climate change. I selected the option that it was a natural phenomenon. The next question then wanted to rate how effective the government was at dealing with it. I said there is no problem so why should they be dealing with it? ( of course that point of view was not an option that I could select )

They also had a problem with Sky City and wanted me to select negative options. I pointed out that the questions were rigged and biased as it was not possible to choose a positive response. I was given two negative responses to choose from only, on one question about Sky City.

I really don’t understand why they waste their money on polls if they do not want to obtain credible data from them.

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