Summer Edition of INCITE: Politics almost ready


We are just putting the final touches to the Summer Edition of INCITE: Politics.

Our designer and proofer was enjoying a much-earned holiday this weekend but it should be ready for delivery later tonight or tomorrow morning.

In this month’s edition we have contributions from Chris Trotter, Don Brash, David Farrar and Jock Anderson, as well as the usual contributions from Simon Lusk and myself.

  • Chris Trotter asks a very hard question
  • David Farrar provides some long-term predictions
  • Don Brash investigates Auckland’s affordable housing issue
  • Jock Anderson discusses a very interesting case before the courts

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Perhaps they need to hire Farrar?

The UK polling companies need to seriously consider hiring David Farrar to sort out their woeful polling practices.

A systematic bias in the way people were selected to take part in opinion polls before the general election is emerging as the most likely reason why the industry failed to predict an overall majority for David Cameron in May’s general election.

Analysis undertaken by polling companies, including YouGov and ICM, of what went wrong in May has found that that a relative over-representation of politically engaged young voters produced a forecast that flattered Ed Miliband. Conversely, the over-70s – who broke heavily for the Tories – were under-represented in YouGov’s internet panels.

The findings come before the publication in January of the initial findings of an independent study for the polling industry, led by Prof Patrick Sturgis of Southampton University, to examine why so many failed to predict a majority win for the Conservative party in May.

YouGov research into its election errors – it underestimated Tory support by 3.7 points and overestimated Labour by 2.8 points – identified an excess of politically engaged young respondents. Because of their age, they were disproportionately Labour but – because of their interest in politics – they were also more likely than the rest of their age group to turn out and vote.

ICM has long afforded a weight to each age bracket (18-24, 25-34 and so on) to match the group’s size in the census but is now concerned that the individual respondents in each bracket may not be representative of that group.

The polling company is reviewing its weighting scheme so that sample groups reflect turnout likelihoods among young and older people, and between people at all points on the social spectrum. This, together with somewhat stronger assumptions about the behaviour of respondents who decline to say how they will vote, has the average effect of reducing the Labour vote share by about two percentage points and increasing the Conservative vote share to a similar extent.

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30% of GOP supporters want to bomb them, but 44% of Democrat supporters want to welcome refugees from a fictional country

The Guardian and left wing mouth-piece blogs are all aghast that 30% of Republican supporters want to bomb a fictional place. They’ve run all sorts of headlines and stories to that effect.

Almost one-third of Republican primary voters would support bombing the fictional kingdom of Agrabah, according to a report released by Public Policy Polling on Friday.

More than 530 Republican primary voters were polled this week on their support for Republican candidates and foreign policy issues including banning Muslims from entering the US, Japanese internment camps from the second world war and bombing Agrabah, the kingdom from Disney’s animated classic, Aladdin.

In its poll, Public Policy Polling asked the 532 Republicans: “Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?” While 57% of responders said they were not sure, 30% said they supported bombing it. Only 13% opposed it.

But what they haven’t reported, while they mock Republicans for their apparent stupidity, is that 44% of Democrat supporters want to welcome refugees from the same fictional country.

Just last week, Democrats in the media were guffawing over a poll which showed 30% of Republican primary voters would bomb the fictional city from Disney’s Aladdin. This week a Republican polling group asked a similar question of Democrats, and the results were even more embarrassing, with 44% of Democrats saying they’d support taking in refugees from Agrabah.   Read more »

Are National and John Key really “out of touch”

Liam Hehir outlines National’s shocker of a year….month by awful month.

In January, the first public poll of the year showed National with 49.8 per cent support, Labour on 29.1, the Greens on 9.3, and New Zealand First on 6.9. That looked pretty good for National. Unfortunately for the party, it all went downhill from there.

In February, the Government came under attack over the possibility of taxpayer funds for SkyCity’s new convention centre. TV3’s Patrick Gower declared that Andrew Little had hit “the political jackpot” and the prime minister’s trouble with the deal was a “a great issue to attack the Government on.”

To make matters worse, Jacinda Ardern accused the Government of being “out of touch” on paid parental leave.

In March, a by-election was held in the safe National seat of Northland and Winston Peters managed to beat out the government’s candidate. Dr Bryce Edwards asked whether this represented “some sort of tipping point” against National. Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei said the result was proof of an “an increasingly out of touch Government”.

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Why the Preferred PM poll is flawed

In today’s launch of INCITE: Politics we have commissioned our own polling to look not at preferred Prime Minister stakes, but rather the approval ratings of potential leaders.

Why did we do this?

Well, you don’t have to look further than today’s NZ Herald/Digipoll results which show that John Key, sitting on 65.2% is 49% in front of Andrew Little who languishes on 16.2%.

PREFERRED PM Read more »

No Christmas joy for Labour from last Herald poll of year

Despite headlines last night screaming that Andrew Little has risen in the polls, from 13.3% to 16.2% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes he was still 49% behind John Key. But more on the preferred Prime Minister polling in another post.

Matters were a whole lot worse for Labour this morning after the promise of last night’s headlines. They have watched National’s polling remain sky-high and after all their manufactured scandals this year National is still polling at over 50%.

National has finished the first year of its third term in as strong a position as it was a year ago, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

It has the support of 51.3 per cent of voters, up slightly on the last poll in August (50.8) and on the same poll a year ago (50.4).

Prime Minister John Key won a third term in September last year with 47.04 per cent for National.

Labour polled just 25.13 per cent at last year’s election when David Cunliffe was leader. Andrew Little has been leader for only a year but appears to have pulled the party out of the demoralising 20s and into more stable territory, at 31.1, up by 0.1.

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One day to go, INCITE: Politics Monthly arrives tomorrow


There has been some comment around the political circles as to why I would launch a new report in the lead up to Christmas when the political world has shut down for their extended Christmas break.

Well, there are a number of reasons for that.

Firstly this report and the coming monthly reports are a bit different. All the contributors in the first issue and contributors in coming issues have signed up to deliver their thoughts in this report because it is going to be different. We are going to be forward looking not backwards looking. Have a look at all the political commentary since parliament rose for the break. It is all about what happened in the past year and nothing at all about what should happen. In due course Fairfax will do their annual prediction post but that is more about flippancy than about accuracy.

Politics for me has been a life long addiction/hobby/career. Just because lazy and inept politicians and the equally lazy media have gone on holiday doesn’t mean we should stop talking about politics. The issues that matter to voters don’t go away over Christmas.   Read more »

Last Roy Morgan poll of the year shows that attacking chows and cuddling criminals doesn’t work

Andrew Little

What? We went down? What happened to attacking chows and cuddling criminals?

The last Roy Morgan poll of the year shows that John Key was right in calling Andrew Little a turkey.

During December support for National was unchanged at 49% still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected easily.

Support for the National partners was little changed with the Maori Party down 0.5% to 1.5%, the Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 28.5% (down 1%), Greens 13% (up 1%), NZ First was unchanged at 6%. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (unchanged), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).  Read more »


INCITE: Politics launching 15th, pre-order now

I am pleased to announce the launch of a new premium report called INCITE: Politics. Pre-orders are being taken from today ahead of the first edition which will be released 15 December.

This is a new initiative and we will be producing a monthly insiders report on politics in New Zealand.

I have commissioned exclusive polling information and will be adding comprehensive analysis and political insight from across the political spectrum.

This is an exclusive report. None of the information contained in INCITE: Politics will be available either on this blog or in any other publication.

We have also secured commentary from insiders across the political spectrum and the first MP we are featuring will surprise some.

The report will be delivered on the 15th of each month and will be forward looking…it is time for a change in our political discourse. Instead of focussing on what has happened we will attempt to look at what is going to happen.

The next two years will be exciting politically with the local body elections and the general election. Subscribe Now  to INCITE: Politics and be amongst the best informed in New Zealand on politics, policy and insider knowledge.

3News poll confirms Labour’s wonky jihad supporting rapists and murderers didn’t work

You really have to love the Media Party…they rushed out and did a poll in the hope that John Key and National had taken a hit over attacking Labour for cuddling rapists and murderers.

They haven’t. The 3News Reid Research poll is pretty much the status quo…not so you’d have noticed from the commentary provided by the chipmunk on meth.

The latest 3 News/Reid Research poll shows National is unscathed by John Key’s “rapists and murderers” Parliamentary attack. Although the Prime Minister’s personal popularity has taken a hit.

Mr Key has been completely unrepentant since he made the remarks, and says he’d do it all again.

The remarks seem to have had an effect, Mr Key is still the preferred Prime Minister but he has taken a 1.2 percent dip in the polls. He now sits on 38.3 percent.

As for Andrew Little, he now sits on 10.4 percent and Winston Peters is on 9.3 percent.

Perhaps the biggest though is Jacinda Ardern. She has risen to 4.2 percent.

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