polling

Farrar on the One News Poll

David Farrar has some useful comparisons on the polls at the same stage of the electoral cycle:

It is almost half way through National’s third term, so it is useful to compare it to the same poll halfway through National’s second term.

In April 2013 National was at 43% and Labour 36% – a 7% gap.

In April 2016 National is at 50% and Labour 28% – a 22% gap.   Read more »

Poll carnage for Labour with latest Colmar Brunton poll

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Labour and Andrew Little are in real trouble in the latest Colmar Brunton poll.

The popularity of John Key’s government is showing no sign of waning, with support for National climbing in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

However it’s a very different story for Labour, with the party and its leader Andrew Little taking a big hit this month.

National has climbed three points to 50 percent – a level it hasn’t been at since August 2014 – while Labour is down a whopping four points to 28 percent.

Crucially, this is the first time Labour has slipped below 30 percent since the election.   Read more »

Another poll confirms Labour’s 35% pipe-dream still isn’t real

I know it is the Roy Morgan, but Labour have claimed for years that this is the most accurate poll, despite the numbers going up and down like a whore’s drawers.

This poll shows that Labour are still languishing below 30%, much lower than when David Shearer was leader.

During March support for National fell 2.5% to 46% – the lowest since September 2015, now only 4% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42% (up 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% (up 3%) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, unchanged at 1%, Act NZ was 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 28% (up 1%), Greens 14% (down 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3% to 9% – its highest level of support in over a decade since August 2005. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 1%).

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Why even the Media party no longer trust Labour

The Media party really don’t like John Key.

For a couple of elections they’ve tried really hard to unseat the government with stings, smears and attacks. Bizarrely, last election there was an attack on a journalist and media personality in an attempt to get rid of John Key.

For a couple of months senior Labour MPs have been putting it about that their internal polling before Christmas was showing Labour on 35%.

No public poll in the last three years has shown Labour on 35%…not since David Shearer was leader did they come close.

Journalists were privately laughing, but those senior Labour MPs were insistent on the ‘truth’ of their polling.

Either the public polls were wrong or Labour’s poll was wrong…or the poll wasn’t wrong; Labour was spinning it better than it was.

It isn’t a coincidence that this is the same issue that raised its head during the election when Labour and their various proxies, like Rob Salmond, were putting it about that Labour were higher in their own polling than the public polls. It all got drowned out in the Dirty Politics hit job…but at one stage it was stated Labour’s polling was at 35% when on election night it was a full 10% lower. Support doesn’t evaporate that much, that fast.   Read more »

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You know, it’s still BBQ season up here in Auckland

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The Labour party really must be wondering now why it is that Andrew Little and Annette King’s numbers from their internal polling don’t seem to ever match the public polls.

They’ve been touting for weeks that their opposition to the TPPA has seen them rise to 35+ in their own polls.

Well, they are either lying to caucus or their pollster is poos.

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll tells the truth…no one is listening to Labour or Andrew Little.

The first ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll of the year has National at 47 per cent, unchanged from the last poll in October 2015.   Read more »

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Just quietly Audrey, Key is hoping he will be attacked all year on the TPPA

Audrey Young has drunk the Kool-Aid. She, too, is equating a few dozen angry hippies and Marxists with the end of John Key’s honeymoon.

Like all other predictions of the end of the honeymoon this one will be wrong too as she will find out in due course with the next set of polls.

It has been one of the longest honeymoons in political history but now Prime Minister John Key is preparing to be hissed and booed at every public outing by anti-TPP protesters.

He was shouted down on Sunday when he tried to make a speech at the annual Big Gay Out festival in Coyle Park. And on Waitangi Day, after giving the lower marae at Te Tii a miss, he was booed by a section of the audience at the NRL Nines tournament at Eden Park.

In the December Herald-DigiPoll survey, Mr Key was preferred Prime Minister by 65.2 per cent of voters after seven years in office.

Helen Clark had been similarly popular, too, after six years as Prime Minister, rating nearly 60 per cent, but had slid to 41.6 per cent by the time she lost office in 2008.

Yesterday, Mr Key said he expected to encounter protesters against the Trans-Pacific Partnership for the rest of the year.

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Roy Morgan delivers New Year gloom for Labour

Despite a news vacuum, and no one really being interested in politics over Christmas/New Year, Labour somehow managed to drop in the latest Roy Morgan poll.

During January support for National was down 2% to 47% although still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) in the first Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for 2016. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected with the support of minor parties.

Support for the National partners showed increased support for the Maori Party, up 1.5% to 3.0%, although Act NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future was 0% (down 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 27.5% (down 1%), Greens 14% (up 1%), NZ First is 6.5% (up 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (unchanged).   Read more »

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Summer Edition of INCITE: Politics almost ready

INCITE

We are just putting the final touches to the Summer Edition of INCITE: Politics.

Our designer and proofer was enjoying a much-earned holiday this weekend but it should be ready for delivery later tonight or tomorrow morning.

In this month’s edition we have contributions from Chris Trotter, Don Brash, David Farrar and Jock Anderson, as well as the usual contributions from Simon Lusk and myself.

  • Chris Trotter asks a very hard question
  • David Farrar provides some long-term predictions
  • Don Brash investigates Auckland’s affordable housing issue
  • Jock Anderson discusses a very interesting case before the courts

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Perhaps they need to hire Farrar?

The UK polling companies need to seriously consider hiring David Farrar to sort out their woeful polling practices.

A systematic bias in the way people were selected to take part in opinion polls before the general election is emerging as the most likely reason why the industry failed to predict an overall majority for David Cameron in May’s general election.

Analysis undertaken by polling companies, including YouGov and ICM, of what went wrong in May has found that that a relative over-representation of politically engaged young voters produced a forecast that flattered Ed Miliband. Conversely, the over-70s – who broke heavily for the Tories – were under-represented in YouGov’s internet panels.

The findings come before the publication in January of the initial findings of an independent study for the polling industry, led by Prof Patrick Sturgis of Southampton University, to examine why so many failed to predict a majority win for the Conservative party in May.

YouGov research into its election errors – it underestimated Tory support by 3.7 points and overestimated Labour by 2.8 points – identified an excess of politically engaged young respondents. Because of their age, they were disproportionately Labour but – because of their interest in politics – they were also more likely than the rest of their age group to turn out and vote.

ICM has long afforded a weight to each age bracket (18-24, 25-34 and so on) to match the group’s size in the census but is now concerned that the individual respondents in each bracket may not be representative of that group.

The polling company is reviewing its weighting scheme so that sample groups reflect turnout likelihoods among young and older people, and between people at all points on the social spectrum. This, together with somewhat stronger assumptions about the behaviour of respondents who decline to say how they will vote, has the average effect of reducing the Labour vote share by about two percentage points and increasing the Conservative vote share to a similar extent.

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30% of GOP supporters want to bomb them, but 44% of Democrat supporters want to welcome refugees from a fictional country

The Guardian and left wing mouth-piece blogs are all aghast that 30% of Republican supporters want to bomb a fictional place. They’ve run all sorts of headlines and stories to that effect.

Almost one-third of Republican primary voters would support bombing the fictional kingdom of Agrabah, according to a report released by Public Policy Polling on Friday.

More than 530 Republican primary voters were polled this week on their support for Republican candidates and foreign policy issues including banning Muslims from entering the US, Japanese internment camps from the second world war and bombing Agrabah, the kingdom from Disney’s animated classic, Aladdin.

In its poll, Public Policy Polling asked the 532 Republicans: “Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?” While 57% of responders said they were not sure, 30% said they supported bombing it. Only 13% opposed it.

But what they haven’t reported, while they mock Republicans for their apparent stupidity, is that 44% of Democrat supporters want to welcome refugees from the same fictional country.

Just last week, Democrats in the media were guffawing over a poll which showed 30% of Republican primary voters would bomb the fictional city from Disney’s Aladdin. This week a Republican polling group asked a similar question of Democrats, and the results were even more embarrassing, with 44% of Democrats saying they’d support taking in refugees from Agrabah.   Read more »