polling

ONE News Colmar Brunton poll tonight

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A preview…

Let’s see the damage done by Cunliffe’s lunch with the Sex Pest, his scarf, the holiday and … himself.

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Labour’s worst poll result in 15 years in Digipoll

 

We are voting positive #forabetternz...for National

We are voting positive #forabetternz…for National

The latest Herald Digipoll is out and The Cunliffe experiment is shown for what it is…abject failure.

Labour’s support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.

Its 26.5 per cent support is a slide of four points since June.

With just two months to the election, Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.

On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.

National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.

Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

The second-most-preferred PM out of Labour MPs is David Shearer, with 2.2 per cent, followed by Jacinda Ardern on 1.4 per cent.  Read more »

Should polling companies be politically neutral? Or at least seen to be?

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This was the RM headline last night.  And it struck me that it is heavily slanted.

To prove it, let me turn it around:

National (51%) increases election willing lead over Labour/Greens (38.5%) after National’s messages of steady economic management and David Cunliffe heads off for a skiing holiday in Queenstown.

See  my point?   Read more »

Labour has massive problems

Fairfax/Ipsos presents their data a little differently from other pollsters, but it does give you an insight into where Labour is in serious trouble.

National’s total support is 54.8% and Labour’s is 24.9%.

Let’s look at the demographics to find where Labour is in trouble.

With men:

 

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In the Upper North Island outside of Auckland:

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Obviously Labour banging on about the holiday highway is working a treat…for National. Read more »

Fairfax/Ipsos poll hammers the nails into Cunliffe’s coffin

If you thought the Roy Morgan poll was bad the Fairfax poll basically confirms that neither is rogue with similar numbers to each other.

National appears to be tightening its grip on the election, with our latest poll cementing its massive lead.

Today’s stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political poll has National on 54.8 per cent support – a staggering 30-point lead over Labour, but down 1.7 points from our last poll.

John Key is also preferred prime minister among most voters, at 53.7 per cent support to David Cunliffe’s 12.8.

Click here for full graphics.

The only glimmer of good news for Labour is that it appears to have reversed the slide in our previous poll and has risen 1.7 points, to 24.9 per cent.

But pollster Matt Benson said undecided voters were shaping up as an important factor and their numbers had been volatile in the previous three polls.

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

That will bring little cheer to Labour, however, as it prepares for its election campaign launch, now just weeks away.

Read more »

Labour’s preferred poll delivers more bad news

The Roy Morgan poll is Labour’s preferred poll, it is the one they claim is the most accurate. The news this week isn’t good for either Labour or David Cunliffe.

In fact it is rather demoralising.

I doubt the paid shills at The Standard will even mention it…they are rather ostrich like these days with polls.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong rise in support for National (51%, up 3%) and a substantial lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%) just more than two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party is 23.5% (down 4.5% – the lowest since November 22-24, 2011 – just before the 2011 New Zealand Election), the Greens are 15% (up 3% – the highest since August 26-September 8, 2013), New Zealand First is 6% (up 0.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1.5% (down 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

Read more »

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Latest Roy Morgan shows Labour mired in 20s

The latest poll from the left-wings favourite pollster, Roy Morgan, shows that Labour remains mired in the 20s. Every polling company now shows labour stuck in the debilitating and moral sapping 20s.

The Cunliffe Caper has failed, and with less than 80 days until the election they are in desperate trouble.

Things with polls have got so bad that the left-wing blogs no no longer report on them.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for National (48%, down 1.5%) but National are still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, unchanged).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has raised slightly overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is unchanged at 28%, the Greens are unchanged at 12%, New Zealand First is 5.5% (up 1.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 2.5% (unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.  Read more »

Labour’s poll nightmares continue, how long can Cunliffe last?

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Tonight saw the release of another 3News Reid Research poll delivering a hammer blow to Labour’s under siege caucus.

Headline results are:

National: 49.7% down 0.6%
Labour: 27.3 % down 2.2%
Greens 12.7% up 2.5%
NZ First: 3.6% down 2%
Maori: 1.5%
Act: 0.4%
United Future 0.0%
Internet Mana: 1.8%
Conservative: 2.8%  Read more »

Labour’s favourite poll shows they are below 30% in that too

David Cunliffe’s days are numbered for sure. Instead of turning around Labour’s fortunes, he has tanked them.

The latest Roy Morgan, the dodgiest of all polls, but nonetheless Labour’s favourite, shows them slipping further below the morale sapping 30%.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for National (49.5%, down 3%) but National are still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, up 2%).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is down 1% to 28%, the Greens are up 3% to 12%, New Zealand First is 4% (down 0.5%) and the Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%). Mana Party alliance partners the Internet Party are at 1% (up 0.5%) – a combined 2.5% for the two parties while support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged – down 1pt to 139.5pts with 63.5% (down 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Read more »

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The clock is ticking after latest poll disaster

ipsos-poll

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll is out and if you thought David Cunliffe’s position yesterday was precarious then today he may as well jump off the cliff rather than be pushed by his angry caucus.

Labour’s support has slumped to its lowest level since the 2011 election, with leader David Cunliffe battling for survival after it emerged he intervened in a residency application for Chinese businessman Donghua Liu.

In the latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political poll, the party has dropped 6 percentage points to 23 per cent. National is soaring on 56 per cent, which would allow it to govern alone. Click here for full graphics.

Cunliffe has failed to stop his party’s slide in the poll since he took over as leader in September, and is now facing election humiliation. His support as preferred prime minister slipped to 11 per cent, down two points. Prime Minister John Key edged ahead, up three points to 51.4 per cent.

As he faced fire over the Liu allegations, Cunliffe insisted he retained the confidence of his caucus – but admitted he had broached the subject with senior colleagues.

Read more »