Polls

The latest Roy Morgan poll came out yesterday and as is usual from that polling company it was another massive swing. This is why I no longer have any faith in their polling. There is simply too much variation up and down.

This latest offering is too scandalous to go past. His latest poll has National up six Labour down four and the Greens down 2.5.  A 14 point swing.

Even worse though is Gary Morgan’s commentary.

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 6%) increasing its lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (31.5%, down 4%) after New Zealand became the thirteenth country in the world, and the first in the Asia-Pacific, to legalise same-sex marriage. Today’s result returns National to a lead similar to the lead it held two months ago in late February — National (47.5%) cf. Labour (30.5%).  Read more »

Who would know where the polls are at the moment. I have decided that I won’t reference Roy Morgan anymore. Their polling has become extremely erratic and their refusal to join the polling body just confirms my suspicions. It wouldn;t matter if they showed National above 50%, I will no longer mention their crack fuelled polling.

TVNZ One News Colmar Brunton poll shows a drop for National. I’d suggest their February result was a bit out of kilter, so the drop is not as big as they are making out.

Labour will try to claim this is because of their constant dripping tap of GCSB and also their power policy. However polling was completed well before they released the policy.  Read more »

This time it is the latest Roy Morgan poll:

Read more »

Scott Yorke at Imperator Fish has some advice for those who are struggling to believe the constant run of rogue polls, especially Labour types like Meg.

Here are his ten reasons for Labour not to worry about polls:

1. That’s not what I’m hearing when I’m out and about talking to ordinary people.
2. Something or other about how fixed phonelines skew the results.
3. While the last few polls have show a downward trend, the long-term trend is positive. If you ignore all the data since about 2007, which has basically just been noise, you can see that Labour is doing okay.  Read more »

The latest Roy Morgan Poll is disaster for David Shearer and Labour, and it shows their anti-progress, Hobbit hating, and general mingy disposition isn’t washing with the electorate:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47.5% (up 3.5% since early February and the highest since July 9-22, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2.5% (up 2%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).  Read more »

I have written an article on what the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll means for John Key and for David Shearer over at Truth.

One News/Colmar Brunton poll, February 2013

David Shearer had every reason to believe that he had finally turned the corner. He had seen off the cowardly non-challenge of David Cunliffe immediately after the troubles at Labour’s annual conference. He had cruised off of the back of stuff ups by John Key’s government, and then he had a final vote in February’s caucus meeting where he was confirmed as leader, even though 10 MPs abstained.

John Key would have been nervous. last year was a nightmare. Lazy and incompetent ministers exposed the government to embarrassment  but none more so than Hekia Parata.  Read more »

I guess the Roy Morgan orgasmic euphoria just ended for the left.

The latest TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll has delivered bad news to Labour. Colin Craig may as well pack up too, scoring a great big fat doughnut.

I knew there was a poll coming because the Winston and Prosser show kicked off last week. It hasn’t helped them though, and they may have been fed a bum steer on the poll dates.

The first ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll of the year shows a boost for the Government.

National has bounced up five points in the poll to 49%, its highest approval rating in almost a year.  Read more »

The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out. The poll continues to be up and down like whore’s drawers.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 44% (down 2% since late January). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 0.5% (down 1%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (unchanged).  Read more »

Shearer just can’t get the numbers to budge:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows steady support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party at 46% (unchanged since mid January). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 31.5% (unchanged); Greens are 13.5% (up 1.5%), New Zealand First 5.5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 0.5% (down 1%) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held today this NZ Roy Morgan Poll says the result would be too close to call.  Read more »

The first Roy Morgan poll is out for the year and David Shearer is not off to a good start. February caucus vote is looming large and there are still a few weekends for some good solid lobbying around the BBQ.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows steady support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party at 46% (up 0.5% since mid December 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 31.5% (down 2%); Greens are 12% (up 1%), New Zealand First 5% (unchanged), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held today this NZ Roy Morgan Poll says the result would be too close to call.

Read more »