Polls

They should get Farrar to do their polling

The UK pollsters are in a bit of a pickle, for getting their polls so dreadfully wrong.

Polling companies face an independent inquiry into how they got the election result so wrong after nearly every poll failed to predict the extent of the Conservative victory.

An industry association for pollsters admitted that eve-of-vote surveys “were clearly not as accurate as we would like” and needed independent investigation.

The British Polling Council said it would look into the causes of the “apparent bias” against the Tories and make recommendations for future polls.

The independent investigation was announced after polling companies admitted their predictions had fared badly, but struggled to explain what had gone wrong.    Read more »

The Little Effect?

Regular readers will all know about the Moroney Effect…where National MPs increase their majority if Sue Moroney stands against them.

There is also the Little Effect as well…where a National MP increases their majority if Andrew Little stands against them.

It seems that the Little Effect is also catching….and is now affecting UK Labour.

With just one week until polling day, a major survey puts the Tories on 35 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour on 30 per cent.

The Conservatives have taken a five-point lead over Labour with just one week until the general election, a poll has found.

A survey by Ipsos Mori for The Evening Standard puts David Cameron’s party on 35 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour on 30 per cent.   Read more »

Dirty Media went all in over ponytail and boost Nats poll ratings

heraldpoll-apr-2015

The media, especially NZME. went all in over the ponytail story. All they achieved was pushing National back over 50% in the latest poll.

Half of the poll was taken before the story blew up…imagine how high the Nats would have been if they’d taken all of the poll after the story.

Overall National polled 51 per cent, marginally up on party support in December from 50.4.

Its support among women, 45.4 per cent, is the same as it was in December.    Read more »

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When will the knives come out for Andrew Little?

What do you mean I need a media person?

The recent Roy Morgan Poll has Labour back on 27%, signalling that Andrew Little’s honeymoon is over. He failed to do anything important in his first six months, and he is reaping what he has sowed.

Word from inside Labour is that fundraising has not been going well. The potential donors can’t see Labour being government so they don’t think it is worth giving them any money. This is exactly what happened with National under English. The donor community couldn’t see National winning so they didn’t give any money.   Read more »

Andrew Little’s 27%

Labour Leader Little Andrew

Labour Leader Little Andrew

The recent Roy Morgan poll has largely been overlooked by the media who were so busy chasing the story about John Key’s hair fetish that they ignored the big story of the week.

Labour and Andrew Little have tanked in the polls. They have fallen back to 27%. The brief honeymoon for Andrew Little has faded, mainly because he is deadly boring and seems to think that Charisma is an Olympic Gold Medal winning horse, rather than a necessary trait for a political leader.   Read more »

Labour’s favoured poll shows the Little experiment has faltered

Labour has dropped below 30% in Labour’s favoured poll, the Roy Morgan. Labour loves this poll, consistently claiming it is the most accurate.

Little’s tactical plan in helping Winston Peters take Northland is increasingly looking like a strategic blunder.

Labour were cock-a-hoop at National losing Northland, but they won’t be now with Winston Peters gaining legitimacy as the real opposition leader.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a slight weakening for the National-led Government 48% (down 1.5% since March), but retaining a strong lead over a potential Labour/Greens Coalition 41% (down 1%). The beneficiaries of this loss of support was New Zealand First 8.5% (up 2.5%) following on from NZ First Leader Winston Peter’s successful campaign at the recent Northland by-election according to today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand April poll.

Support for National has dropped to 45.5% (down 1%) and support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners the Maori Party has dropped to 1.5% (down 0.5%). Support for Key’s other two Coalition partners is unchanged: Act NZ 1% (unchanged) and United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).

Despite the rise in support for the Opposition Parties on the whole, Labour’s decision to advise Labour supporters to vote for NZ First Leader Winston Peters in the Northland by-election appears to have dented Labour support – now at 27.5% (down 3.5%). In contrast, support has increased strongly for both the Greens 13.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 8.5% (up 2.5%).

For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 0.5%).

roymorgan-april2015

Labour strategists won’t be liking this.

 

– Roy Morgan

When will Labour start getting nervous about their polling?

His leadership is a dog's breakfast and tastes like a dog's leavings

His leadership is a dog’s breakfast and tastes like a dog’s leavings

Andrew Little has been leader of the Labour Party since November 18th 2014. He got an initial bounce up from Labour’s terrible 25% of the vote, but as the latest poll out shows he has not improved Labour’s poll numbers at all in the last two months.

The problem for Little is that without a dramatic increase in the polls he will consign Labour to another loss. At the moment his career is entirely at the mercy of the moral leader of the opposition, Winston Peters, who could choose to shaft him nearer after the election if Little doesn’t have a lot more than the 31% of the vote he currently has.   Read more »

One News Poll bad news for Andrew Little, great for Winston

The latest One News Poll is out and it shows that Andrew Little isn’t making any gains both against National nor in the Preferred PM stakes.

Winston Peters on the other hand is winning in the Preferred PM stakes and is just 1% point off being able to claim the moral high ground and take the title of Leader of the Opposition for himself.

National’s by-election beating in Northland appears to have done little to change how the rest of New Zealand feels about the party, latest poll results show.

A ONE News Colmar Brunton poll conducted this month shows National Party support remains steady on 49%.

Labour Party support also remained unchanged on 31%, while the Green Party slipped to one percentage point to 9%.

New Zealand First, on the other hand, has seen a slight bounce – up one percentage point to 7%.

The Conservative Party is steady on 2%, as is the Act Party on 1%. Mana is back in the frame on 1%, while the Maori Party slipped down to 1%.

When converted into seats in Parliament, the poll results would mean National would take 60 seats, Labour would take 38, the Greens 11 and New Zealand First 9.

The Maori Party, Act and United Future would all have just one each.

Read more »

Northland, polls and polling vs final results

Arts, Lifestyle & Travel blogger David “Pinko” Farrar has a very brief post on the Northland polls.

  • Winston Peters NZF 16,089 54.5%
  • Mark Osborne NAT 11,648 39.4%
  • Willow-Jean Prime LAB 1,380 4.7%

Those polls were pretty accurate.

Read more »

National’s Northland Polls

UPFRONT_100512_hdr

Readers already know that the inside word is that Pinko Farrar’s polls closely matched the two media polls in the last week of the campaign, and the results on the night.

This is of no surprise to any political observer who knows Pinko or knows polls, Pinko always gets it right.

What is interesting is that there are complaints from inside caucus that they had to fund the campaign but they were not given any information about the polls.    Read more »