Polls

Farrar provides some facts to counter the shrill headlines predicting John Key’s demise

The Media party have piled in on the latest Newshub poll suggesting that a small, less than the margin of error, drop in popularity of John Key is the beginning of the end of him.

They have ignored that Andrew Little is below Winston Peters in the same poll and he dropped even more than John Key.

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger David Farrar takes time out from his hectic touring schedule to present some facts that seem to have escaped the commentators in the Media party.

The Newshub story says Key has plummeted as Preferred PM as he has dropped 1.5% in 6 months. This is of course not even statistically significant let alone a plummet of any kind.

I thought it would be useful to compare the Preferred PM ratings of May 2016, with May 2007 – the same point in Labour’s third term.

In May 2007 the PM was at 30% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the PM is at 37% Preferred PM.

In May 2007 the Opposition Leader was at 32% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the Opposition Leader is at 9% Preferred PM.

So Clark was trailing by 2% in May 2007, while in May 2016 Key leads Little by 28%.   Read more »

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Key “plummets” says Newshub…really? Since when has 1.8% been a plummet?

Newshub are pushing out their latest poll:

National though is steady on 47 percent on the poll — a drop of just 0.3 percent — and similar to the Election night result.

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However, National and its support partners would not be able to put together a government — they would need the support of Winston Peters.

Mr Peters would once again be Kingmaker — if he sided with Labour and the Greens, they would become the Government.

Read more »

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So Labour, tell us again what your internal polling is showing

Labour MPs are being lied to by Andrew Little’s dream team. They keep telling them that National is on 41% and Labour is on 32% in their internal polling. They also claim that John Key’s net approvals are falling.

There is a massive problem with both of those propositions. Our own exclusive polling for INCITE: Politics shows Andrew Little’s net approvals are deeply negative while John Key’s net approvals are positive.

Secondly, public polls keep coming out showing a massive difference between Labour’s whispering campaign to talk up their own polling.

The latest being the Roy Morgan poll.

During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First’s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners fell slightly with the Maori Party, down 0.5% to 1.0%, Act NZ was 1% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5% to their highest support since November 2015), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 9.5% (down 3%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

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The delusions of the left

The left-wing is seeing hope in the Roy Morgan poll, despite Labour scoring their second lowest result since October 2014 when they polled 22.4%.

They are busily leaking internal poll results to bloggers like Martyn Bradbury who is treating Rob Salmond’s numbers as gospel. They are also leaking to unionists who are busily shilling details on Twitter.

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The problem with these leaks is that I conduct my own polling via INCITE: Politics and Curia polling. The reason I use Curia is because they, and David Farrar, are simply the best pollsters in New Zealand.

Our poll results measuring favourability don’t show that at all. In fact they show that Andrew Little’s favourables are tanking and John Key’s rose a little.

Martyn Bradbury meanwhile is spinning up Labour’s own internal polling, which if they still used UMR might be believable, but since they stopped paying their bills anything coming from Labour is going to be rubbish.  Read more »

Little takes Labour to Cunliffe levels in latest poll

The left-wing are all cock-a-hoop about the latest Roy Morgan poll.

For the life of me I can’t understand why.

During April support for National fell 3.5% to 42.5% – the lowest for two years since April – May 2014, now only 2% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40.5% (down 1.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 12.5% (up 3.5% to their highest level of support in twenty years) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, up 0.5% to 1.5%, Act NZ was 1.5% (up 0.5%) – Act NZ’s highest level of support since late 2014 and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 26% (down 2%), Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3.5% to 12.5% – its highest level of support since the 1996 NZ Election. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).

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Mea Culpa, says Seven Percent Little

Labour’s current leader blames himself for its latest fall. The result was expected, he said, because it coincided with a week in which he did not perform well. That was the week he suggested he would threaten to regulate bank interest rates if they did not pass on an OCR reduction. It was just the latest desperate move Labour has made this year, from reversing its position on the TPP to promising free tertiary education and toying with a universal benefit, not to mention the flag. […]

A four-point drop in a Colmar Brunton poll taken for TVNZ last week must be a shock to supporters of the Labour Party. It followed John Key’s failure to carry the country at the flag referendum, the first time he had lost a nationwide vote since he became the National Party’s leader nearly 10 years ago.

While the referendum was not supposed to be about him, Labour, the Greens and NZ First did their utmost to make it so, urging voters to deny him a “legacy” of that kind. It now seems likely their opposition boosted support for a flag change which turned out to be higher than expected and the result was particularly close in some of the seats National holds. As it turns out, the flag poll has done the Government no harm and the Opposition no good. […]

But Labour’s drop to just 28 per cent in the latest poll is not a good result for politics in this country. When a major party slips below 30 per cent, the party and its supporters begin to lose confidence in its policies and leadership and the result can be a move to extreme positions.

It pays to remember how the National Party took power. All they did was to promise two things, maybe three: Read more »

Wrong again

Martyn Bradbury is the most wrong person in New Zealand politics.

He’s been so wrong so many times I suggested he change his name to Wrongly Wrongson.

On Friday he wrote:

I don’t think this latest evidence of abuse of political power by Key will be so easily shrugged off.

It’s not because it’s the most compelling evidence of his abuses of power. The mass surveillance lies, the Dirty Politics scandal, the ramming through of Parliament laws he wants all of these and so many more are stronger evidence, but this people can grasp.

People loved their flag, and knowing Key met to secretly fund a campaign to get rid of it even in the last dying moments of the campaign will insult many and nothing moves polls like a voter scorned.

Read more »

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Farrar on the One News Poll

David Farrar has some useful comparisons on the polls at the same stage of the electoral cycle:

It is almost half way through National’s third term, so it is useful to compare it to the same poll halfway through National’s second term.

In April 2013 National was at 43% and Labour 36% – a 7% gap.

In April 2016 National is at 50% and Labour 28% – a 22% gap.   Read more »

Poll carnage for Labour with latest Colmar Brunton poll

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Labour and Andrew Little are in real trouble in the latest Colmar Brunton poll.

The popularity of John Key’s government is showing no sign of waning, with support for National climbing in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

However it’s a very different story for Labour, with the party and its leader Andrew Little taking a big hit this month.

National has climbed three points to 50 percent – a level it hasn’t been at since August 2014 – while Labour is down a whopping four points to 28 percent.

Crucially, this is the first time Labour has slipped below 30 percent since the election.   Read more »

Another poll confirms Labour’s 35% pipe-dream still isn’t real

I know it is the Roy Morgan, but Labour have claimed for years that this is the most accurate poll, despite the numbers going up and down like a whore’s drawers.

This poll shows that Labour are still languishing below 30%, much lower than when David Shearer was leader.

During March support for National fell 2.5% to 46% – the lowest since September 2015, now only 4% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42% (up 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% (up 3%) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, unchanged at 1%, Act NZ was 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 28% (up 1%), Greens 14% (down 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3% to 9% – its highest level of support in over a decade since August 2005. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 1%).

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