Polls

Political Poll on Sunday

I got a phone call yesterday asking for 8 minutes of my time. Being a helpful person I agreed to it and noted the kind of questions I was being asked.

I soon realised that it must have been paid for by either The Greens or Labour or was one on behalf of both. I was only asked what I thought about two political parties on one question as they didn’t give me any other options. I was asked what I thought about the Greens and then about Labour.

I was also asked about Andrew Little and about John Key. I was given a number of opportunities to say bad things about John Key which I declined to do. I was not asked to expand why I rated Key highly. However, when I rated Andrew Little at zero I was asked why I had scored him so poorly.

I told them because of his Angry Andrew yelling in parliament which is not Leader like behaviour.

Then I was asked about Climate change. I selected the option that it was a natural phenomenon. The next question then wanted to rate how effective the government was at dealing with it. I said there is no problem so why should they be dealing with it? ( of course that point of view was not an option that I could select )

They also had a problem with Sky City and wanted me to select negative options. I pointed out that the questions were rigged and biased as it was not possible to choose a positive response. I was given two negative responses to choose from only, on one question about Sky City.

I really don’t understand why they waste their money on polls if they do not want to obtain credible data from them.

Read more »

Latest Roy Morgan sobering reading for leaderless left wing

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out it makes for sobering reading for the left wing.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (49.5%, up 6% since early October). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is down slightly with the Maori Party 1% (down 1%), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is up slightly to 24% (up 1.5%) and down for the other two opposition parties: Greens 14.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 6.5% (down 0.5%). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 2% (down 3%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would be easily re-elected.

Read more »

Tagged:

Chart of the Day

Actually make that charts of the day.

David Farrar has a chart of Labour’s stellar electoral record since 1938.

Labour-eletion-results-560x366

This is a graph of Labour’s general election results in every general election since 1938. I’ve added a trendline in, to reinforce the obvious point. They do go through cycles of relative highs and lows but each high is lower than the one before, and each low is lower than the one before.

Read more »

Labour’s election campaign is slip, slidin’ away

The election is slip, slidin’ away from Labour.

They are approaching the territory of Bill English, expect a sudden collapse of their vote in this final week as people wake up to the fact that they can’t win.

Voters don’t vote for losers.For the same reason people leave early from a rugby match when their team is getting pasted the voters will abandon Labour.

National is urging its supporters not to split their vote as our latest poll confirms the minor parties are on the rise – and Labour continues to slump.

The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll signals a horror start to the final week of the campaign for Labour as its support slides to 22.4 per cent, putting it on track for an unprecedented trouncing.

It appears to have bled some support to the Greens, who are on 13 per cent. But most attention is around the seeming unstoppable rise of Winston Peters and NZ First.

Read more »

How to put positive spin on dreadful numbers

The NZ Herald has some new numbers from their polling that looks at some key demographics.

But watch how they spin the numbers.

A breakdown of the latest Herald Digipoll results according to gender, location and age shows where the parties are strongest and where they are gaining and losing ground.

Labour’s popularity with male voters has increased, with 21.2 per cent of men supporting it for the party vote, compared to 18.4 per cent last week.

The party’s support among women hasn’t changed much, with 27.8 per cent this week, compared to 28.9 per cent last week.

Those numbers are simply dreadful for Labour. As I said earlier in the week Labour’s internal polling was showing them with a one in front of it and it looks like Digipoll has found the same.

Sure it has increased to barely over 20% and in the territory of Bill English’s dreadful 2002 result. Even thenumbers for women are bad and lower than when David Shearer led Labour. The Herald spins this as positive…Labour’s popularity amongst men is rising…when it is around 20% it can only but rise!   Read more »

Labour is in trouble, Auckland hates them

The age old refrain in politics is “If you win Auckland, you win Wellington” has become a truism.

Political parties that ignore Auckland do so at their peril and are unlikely to make much inroads into gaining the treasury benches.

That is why the Greens put so much effort into Auckland’s leafy suburbs trying to convince voting mothers that the planet is in peril.

Labour traditionally had solid support in South Auckland and West Auckland. But that support is at risk.

North of the bridge is solid blue all the way to Cape Reinga, and Labour stranglehold in the south ends at Manurewa with Judith Collins rock solid in Papakura.

Fairfax has been polling in Auckland and Labour has problems.

With the leaders focusing on the vote-rich Auckland seats in the last two weeks of the campaign, the two most recent Stuff.co.nz-Ipsos polls showed 56 per cent of Aucklanders backed National against just over 50 per cent in the rest of the country.

There was very little variation among Labour voters, with about 25 per cent supporting the party inside and outside Auckland.

The only other major difference was for the Greens with just 10 per cent support in Auckland but 13.5 per cent across the rest of the country.    Read more »

Tagged:

What the polls are showing

3news

Last night was yet another poll that showed that Kiwi voters don;t give a toss about the shrill cacophony of whining from the left wing about Dirty Politics.

In fact it is showing that the voters not only don’t care but are locking in support strongly behind John Key and National.

Dirty politics has always been and continues to be a beltway issue.

The only thing it has done is increase my traffic and my reach.

The polls also show something else which should send a shiver down the spine of those who think the chinless scarf wearer currently running Labour would be Prime Minister.

The polls are showing that contrary to popular wisdom the National party actually does have support partner options.

With Winston Peters and Colin Craig’s cult both polling either above or close to the threshold, then with wasted vote it is likely that both will make it.

That gives John Key options…significant options.   Read more »

Two polls herald Labour’s disaster

Two polls this morning show that Labour’s hope that “Dirty Politics” was going to be their salvation was misplaced.

The NZ Herald/Digipoll is really bad news for them.

National’s polling has barely flickered in the three weeks since the Dirty Politics book was launched and the party could still govern alone on 50.1 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

Prime Minister John Key told the Herald the results reflected “a huge fatigue factor” with Dirty Politics.

Their July poll was clearly out of whack and the poll has settled back to usual levels.

National support

The full numbers for the Herald/Digipoll are:

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Read more »

One News/Colmar Brunton shows Dirty Politics barely registering

 

onenewspoll

Photo/ TVNZ

The left wing conspiracy and smear job initiated with illegal hacking against me and now being pushed hard by the left wing isn’t working.

They have been working towards this all year and now as more and more revealing details are released we can see it is a smear job aimed squarely at National.

The Fact that not a single email be tween me and Labour MPs, nor Facebook messages with the same, and ditto Green party and Winston shows that this is a targeted political smear.

They dare to claim the high ground.

If you believe it was mere coincidence that Labour’s campaign slogan is “Vote Positive” and isn’t related at all to the illegal hacking of my systems then I have a bridge I can sell you.

The good news for voters is that National remains strong and largely unaffected, with changes at the margin of error only.

The campaigning of the complicit media in aiding and abetting a criminal conspiracy to hijack our elections isn’t working.

National has taken a ‘Dirty Politics’ hit in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll, down two points to 48% while Labour has gained two and is sitting at 28%.

The poll accounts for the effects of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book but not this weekend’s developments.   Read more »

Understanding “The margin of error” on political polls – once and for all

thomas-lumley-firstline

via 3 News

 

You  might want to bookmark this article for future reference.  It draws on a very useful post I hacked from Professor Thomas Lumley on the Stats Chat blog:

The 3% ‘margin of error’ usually quoted for poll is actually the ‘maximum margin of error’, and is an overestimate for minor parties. On the other hand, it also assumes simple random sampling and so tends to be an underestimate for major parties.

Lower and upper ‘margin of error’ limits for a sample of size 1000 and the observed percentage, assuming that complications in sampling inflate the variance by a factor of 2, which empirically is about right for National. Read more »