Polls

Latest poll, Nats and Labour up

How stupid are Labour?

The missing million don’t exist. Yet Labour still pines after them.

mika-fb-missingmillion

The missing million have stayed away for so many elections now that you would have thought Labour would give up on them.

But no, they think that despite their failed social media campaign, their failed voter out reach campaign and their failure at the last three elections the missing million are going to turn up.

The media meanwhile are trying their best to help labour by declaring a big jump in the latest poll, ignoring that National also rose in the poll.   Read more »

Nats up again in latest poll, Labour is too, but they shanked the Greens and NZ First

Andrew little

Andrew Little digests the latest polls, discovers he’s eating gruel

The latest 3News poll is out and if you listened to Patrick Gower you’d think Labour and Andrew Little had a blinder.

The sad fact is they haven’t.

Commentators used to go on about National not having or cannibalising support partners…despite for three elections now they have managed to put together a credible coalition with support partners.

Labour on the other hand is gaining in the polls by cannibalising their support partners and still not having enough numbers to govern.

One rule of politics is you need to learn how to count, and Labour and Patrick Gower still can’t count.

3 News-Reid Research poll, taken January 20-28, 2015
1000 people polled, margin of error +/- 3.1 percent

  • National – 49.8 percent, up 2.8 percent on election night result
  • Labour – 29.1 percent, up 4 percent
  • Green – 9.3 percent, down 1.4 percent
  • New Zealand First – 6.9 percent, down 1.9 percent
  • Conservative – 2.7 percent, down 1.3 percent
  • Maori – 1.3 percent, N/C
  • Internet Mana – 0.6 percent, down 0.8 percent
  • ACT – 0.4 percent, down 0.3 percent
  • United Future – 0 percent, down 0.2 percent

Read more »

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Little better than the rest says TV3 poll, really?

55 percent you say? Is that all?

55 percent you say? Is that all?

According to a released TV3 poll Andrew Little is supposedly better than the rest of the muppets who were leader before him.

In attempt to get some good news out early for Andrew Little it appears TV3 has led early with the one result Andrew Little supposedly shines in.

He’s just two months into the job, but already Labour leader Andrew Little is outshining all his predecessors since Helen Clark, according today’s 3 News-Reid Research poll.

It’s the first political poll of the year and sets the tone for what’s set to be a rip-roaring battle of the leaders as Mr Little takes on Prime Minister John Key.

The poll shows 55 percent of voters think Mr Little is potentially a better match for Mr Key than his predecessors.

3 News Political Editor Patrick Gower says there’s a warning for the Prime Minister in today’s poll.

“Even National Party supporters think Little’s one to watch, that will force Key to sit up and take notice. There’s no room for complacency this term.

“Key’s popularity hasn’t been dented and Labour’s revolving leadership has struggled to get one over him, but this poll shows he may have finally met his match.”

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

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Andrew Little makes big impact in latest Roy Morgan poll

The left-wing love Roy Morgan polls, their useful idiots all proclaim that it is the most accurate…and that the trend is your friend.

Personally I think the Roy Morgan poll is one of the worst, with a lack of consistency…but since the left loves it so much they can choke on the latest poll from them.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National surging to 52% (up 6% since November 24-December 7, 2014); the highest support for National since June 2014. However, support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners has fallen with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), Act NZ 1% (down 0.5%) although United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is at 26% (down 1%) and also down for the Greens 11% (down 1%) while NZ First is down 1% to 6%. For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 2% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (down 1%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would win in a landslide and be able to govern in its own right.  Read more »

Political Poll on Sunday

I got a phone call yesterday asking for 8 minutes of my time. Being a helpful person I agreed to it and noted the kind of questions I was being asked.

I soon realised that it must have been paid for by either The Greens or Labour or was one on behalf of both. I was only asked what I thought about two political parties on one question as they didn’t give me any other options. I was asked what I thought about the Greens and then about Labour.

I was also asked about Andrew Little and about John Key. I was given a number of opportunities to say bad things about John Key which I declined to do. I was not asked to expand why I rated Key highly. However, when I rated Andrew Little at zero I was asked why I had scored him so poorly.

I told them because of his Angry Andrew yelling in parliament which is not Leader like behaviour.

Then I was asked about Climate change. I selected the option that it was a natural phenomenon. The next question then wanted to rate how effective the government was at dealing with it. I said there is no problem so why should they be dealing with it? ( of course that point of view was not an option that I could select )

They also had a problem with Sky City and wanted me to select negative options. I pointed out that the questions were rigged and biased as it was not possible to choose a positive response. I was given two negative responses to choose from only, on one question about Sky City.

I really don’t understand why they waste their money on polls if they do not want to obtain credible data from them.

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Latest Roy Morgan sobering reading for leaderless left wing

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out it makes for sobering reading for the left wing.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (49.5%, up 6% since early October). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is down slightly with the Maori Party 1% (down 1%), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is up slightly to 24% (up 1.5%) and down for the other two opposition parties: Greens 14.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 6.5% (down 0.5%). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 2% (down 3%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would be easily re-elected.

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Chart of the Day

Actually make that charts of the day.

David Farrar has a chart of Labour’s stellar electoral record since 1938.

Labour-eletion-results-560x366

This is a graph of Labour’s general election results in every general election since 1938. I’ve added a trendline in, to reinforce the obvious point. They do go through cycles of relative highs and lows but each high is lower than the one before, and each low is lower than the one before.

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Labour’s election campaign is slip, slidin’ away

The election is slip, slidin’ away from Labour.

They are approaching the territory of Bill English, expect a sudden collapse of their vote in this final week as people wake up to the fact that they can’t win.

Voters don’t vote for losers.For the same reason people leave early from a rugby match when their team is getting pasted the voters will abandon Labour.

National is urging its supporters not to split their vote as our latest poll confirms the minor parties are on the rise – and Labour continues to slump.

The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll signals a horror start to the final week of the campaign for Labour as its support slides to 22.4 per cent, putting it on track for an unprecedented trouncing.

It appears to have bled some support to the Greens, who are on 13 per cent. But most attention is around the seeming unstoppable rise of Winston Peters and NZ First.

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How to put positive spin on dreadful numbers

The NZ Herald has some new numbers from their polling that looks at some key demographics.

But watch how they spin the numbers.

A breakdown of the latest Herald Digipoll results according to gender, location and age shows where the parties are strongest and where they are gaining and losing ground.

Labour’s popularity with male voters has increased, with 21.2 per cent of men supporting it for the party vote, compared to 18.4 per cent last week.

The party’s support among women hasn’t changed much, with 27.8 per cent this week, compared to 28.9 per cent last week.

Those numbers are simply dreadful for Labour. As I said earlier in the week Labour’s internal polling was showing them with a one in front of it and it looks like Digipoll has found the same.

Sure it has increased to barely over 20% and in the territory of Bill English’s dreadful 2002 result. Even thenumbers for women are bad and lower than when David Shearer led Labour. The Herald spins this as positive…Labour’s popularity amongst men is rising…when it is around 20% it can only but rise!   Read more »

Labour is in trouble, Auckland hates them

The age old refrain in politics is “If you win Auckland, you win Wellington” has become a truism.

Political parties that ignore Auckland do so at their peril and are unlikely to make much inroads into gaining the treasury benches.

That is why the Greens put so much effort into Auckland’s leafy suburbs trying to convince voting mothers that the planet is in peril.

Labour traditionally had solid support in South Auckland and West Auckland. But that support is at risk.

North of the bridge is solid blue all the way to Cape Reinga, and Labour stranglehold in the south ends at Manurewa with Judith Collins rock solid in Papakura.

Fairfax has been polling in Auckland and Labour has problems.

With the leaders focusing on the vote-rich Auckland seats in the last two weeks of the campaign, the two most recent Stuff.co.nz-Ipsos polls showed 56 per cent of Aucklanders backed National against just over 50 per cent in the rest of the country.

There was very little variation among Labour voters, with about 25 per cent supporting the party inside and outside Auckland.

The only other major difference was for the Greens with just 10 per cent support in Auckland but 13.5 per cent across the rest of the country.    Read more »

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