Roy Morgan delivers New Year gloom for Labour

Despite a news vacuum, and no one really being interested in politics over Christmas/New Year, Labour somehow managed to drop in the latest Roy Morgan poll.

During January support for National was down 2% to 47% although still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) in the first Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for 2016. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected with the support of minor parties.

Support for the National partners showed increased support for the Maori Party, up 1.5% to 3.0%, although Act NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future was 0% (down 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 27.5% (down 1%), Greens 14% (up 1%), NZ First is 6.5% (up 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (unchanged).   Read more »


30% of GOP supporters want to bomb them, but 44% of Democrat supporters want to welcome refugees from a fictional country

The Guardian and left wing mouth-piece blogs are all aghast that 30% of Republican supporters want to bomb a fictional place. They’ve run all sorts of headlines and stories to that effect.

Almost one-third of Republican primary voters would support bombing the fictional kingdom of Agrabah, according to a report released by Public Policy Polling on Friday.

More than 530 Republican primary voters were polled this week on their support for Republican candidates and foreign policy issues including banning Muslims from entering the US, Japanese internment camps from the second world war and bombing Agrabah, the kingdom from Disney’s animated classic, Aladdin.

In its poll, Public Policy Polling asked the 532 Republicans: “Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?” While 57% of responders said they were not sure, 30% said they supported bombing it. Only 13% opposed it.

But what they haven’t reported, while they mock Republicans for their apparent stupidity, is that 44% of Democrat supporters want to welcome refugees from the same fictional country.

Just last week, Democrats in the media were guffawing over a poll which showed 30% of Republican primary voters would bomb the fictional city from Disney’s Aladdin. This week a Republican polling group asked a similar question of Democrats, and the results were even more embarrassing, with 44% of Democrats saying they’d support taking in refugees from Agrabah.   Read more »

Are National and John Key really “out of touch”

Liam Hehir outlines National’s shocker of a year….month by awful month.

In January, the first public poll of the year showed National with 49.8 per cent support, Labour on 29.1, the Greens on 9.3, and New Zealand First on 6.9. That looked pretty good for National. Unfortunately for the party, it all went downhill from there.

In February, the Government came under attack over the possibility of taxpayer funds for SkyCity’s new convention centre. TV3’s Patrick Gower declared that Andrew Little had hit “the political jackpot” and the prime minister’s trouble with the deal was a “a great issue to attack the Government on.”

To make matters worse, Jacinda Ardern accused the Government of being “out of touch” on paid parental leave.

In March, a by-election was held in the safe National seat of Northland and Winston Peters managed to beat out the government’s candidate. Dr Bryce Edwards asked whether this represented “some sort of tipping point” against National. Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei said the result was proof of an “an increasingly out of touch Government”.

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No Christmas joy for Labour from last Herald poll of year

Despite headlines last night screaming that Andrew Little has risen in the polls, from 13.3% to 16.2% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes he was still 49% behind John Key. But more on the preferred Prime Minister polling in another post.

Matters were a whole lot worse for Labour this morning after the promise of last night’s headlines. They have watched National’s polling remain sky-high and after all their manufactured scandals this year National is still polling at over 50%.

National has finished the first year of its third term in as strong a position as it was a year ago, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

It has the support of 51.3 per cent of voters, up slightly on the last poll in August (50.8) and on the same poll a year ago (50.4).

Prime Minister John Key won a third term in September last year with 47.04 per cent for National.

Labour polled just 25.13 per cent at last year’s election when David Cunliffe was leader. Andrew Little has been leader for only a year but appears to have pulled the party out of the demoralising 20s and into more stable territory, at 31.1, up by 0.1.

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One day to go, INCITE: Politics Monthly arrives tomorrow


There has been some comment around the political circles as to why I would launch a new report in the lead up to Christmas when the political world has shut down for their extended Christmas break.

Well, there are a number of reasons for that.

Firstly this report and the coming monthly reports are a bit different. All the contributors in the first issue and contributors in coming issues have signed up to deliver their thoughts in this report because it is going to be different. We are going to be forward looking not backwards looking. Have a look at all the political commentary since parliament rose for the break. It is all about what happened in the past year and nothing at all about what should happen. In due course Fairfax will do their annual prediction post but that is more about flippancy than about accuracy.

Politics for me has been a life long addiction/hobby/career. Just because lazy and inept politicians and the equally lazy media have gone on holiday doesn’t mean we should stop talking about politics. The issues that matter to voters don’t go away over Christmas.   Read more »

Last Roy Morgan poll of the year shows that attacking chows and cuddling criminals doesn’t work

Andrew Little

What? We went down? What happened to attacking chows and cuddling criminals?

The last Roy Morgan poll of the year shows that John Key was right in calling Andrew Little a turkey.

During December support for National was unchanged at 49% still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected easily.

Support for the National partners was little changed with the Maori Party down 0.5% to 1.5%, the Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 28.5% (down 1%), Greens 13% (up 1%), NZ First was unchanged at 6%. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (unchanged), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).  Read more »


INCITE: Politics launching 15th, pre-order now

I am pleased to announce the launch of a new premium report called INCITE: Politics. Pre-orders are being taken from today ahead of the first edition which will be released 15 December.

This is a new initiative and we will be producing a monthly insiders report on politics in New Zealand.

I have commissioned exclusive polling information and will be adding comprehensive analysis and political insight from across the political spectrum.

This is an exclusive report. None of the information contained in INCITE: Politics will be available either on this blog or in any other publication.

We have also secured commentary from insiders across the political spectrum and the first MP we are featuring will surprise some.

The report will be delivered on the 15th of each month and will be forward looking…it is time for a change in our political discourse. Instead of focussing on what has happened we will attempt to look at what is going to happen.

The next two years will be exciting politically with the local body elections and the general election. Subscribe Now  to INCITE: Politics and be amongst the best informed in New Zealand on politics, policy and insider knowledge.

3News poll confirms Labour’s wonky jihad supporting rapists and murderers didn’t work

You really have to love the Media Party…they rushed out and did a poll in the hope that John Key and National had taken a hit over attacking Labour for cuddling rapists and murderers.

They haven’t. The 3News Reid Research poll is pretty much the status quo…not so you’d have noticed from the commentary provided by the chipmunk on meth.

The latest 3 News/Reid Research poll shows National is unscathed by John Key’s “rapists and murderers” Parliamentary attack. Although the Prime Minister’s personal popularity has taken a hit.

Mr Key has been completely unrepentant since he made the remarks, and says he’d do it all again.

The remarks seem to have had an effect, Mr Key is still the preferred Prime Minister but he has taken a 1.2 percent dip in the polls. He now sits on 38.3 percent.

As for Andrew Little, he now sits on 10.4 percent and Winston Peters is on 9.3 percent.

Perhaps the biggest though is Jacinda Ardern. She has risen to 4.2 percent.

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No post conference bounce for Labour…not even a dead cat bounce

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and it still isn’t good reading for Labour.

I don’t hold much stock in Roy Morgan polls but the left-wing love it. This poll shows that there was no post conference bounce for Labour who spent the entire conference telling us they were focused on job, jobs, jobs.

Labour came off the back of their conference wanting to talk about jobs and sugar tax, and they’ve blown up their own momentum. The Roy Morgan shows that but it doesn’t yet show the damage done from grandstanding and cuddling criminals.

During November support for National fell 1% to 49% still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted before controversy erupted this week after PM John Key accused Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists in a debate about New Zealanders convicted of serious crimes facing deportation from Australia. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be easily re-elected.    Read more »

And this is Labour’s poll guru?

Rob Salmond is Labour’s polling guru. For most of last year he was exclaiming that the public polls of the media companies were wrong and that David Cunliffe and Labour were actually polling at least 10 points higher.

Then the election results came in.

A few weeks ago Rob decided to impart his considerable polling wisdom over the coming Canadian elections.

In his words the:

“New Democratic Party (NDP) stands proudly for the progressive left in Canadian politics. Very few would accuse the NDP of being “Blairite.” (For one thing, it opposed the 2003 Iraq war.) While there’s a tight election campaign on in Canada right now, next month the NDP is most likely to head the Canadian government for the first time.”

He goes on:

[T]he NDP is finding another way to win. In an actual, nationwide election, not just a intra-party contest. And when it wins, using traditional reach-to-the-centre methods, it will deliver real progressive change for Canada.

The Canadian left may not get everything it wants, but it will get a lot of things it wants. That’s what victory looks like in a modern democracy.

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