Polls

Two bad polls for Labour, Cunliffe has zero traction

insignificant

One News and 3 News both had polls tonight. Both polls show that David Cunliffe is failing as Labour leader and is now plumbing the depths that Bill English charted when he was leader of National.

English debuted as leader around 14% and slowly slid into insignificance. David Cunliffe is the same. He must now be under real pressure both from his caucus and his members. It is telling that like his caucus, just one third of Labour voters prefer him as PM. In the OneNews/Colmar Brunton he is on 8% and in the 3News/Reid Research he is on 9%, well below the worst results David Shearer ever produced.

Labour’s smear campaign against Judith Collins and Hekia Parata have failed demonstrably along with their stupid crony capitalism campaign.They should give it up, it hasn’t worked at all.

As for their vaunted forestry policy, that has gone down with voters like a cup of cold sick. Instead of launching a policy for a few elite forest owners they should have been talking policy idea that resonate with middle NZ but they haven’t, instead talking over their heads.

All the game changers they’ve announced have indeed changed the game…in favour of John Key and the National party.  Read more »

2014 Election all over bar the shouting – literally

over

There may be some minor excitement about who wins an electorate seat, or if NZ First will make it back into parliament (no), but in essence, apart from a few minor details, this election isn’t about who wins and who loses, but how to proportion the tax payer loot between all the scum list MPs.

And to a fair degree this is more a reflection of a completely disorganised opposition rather than a super effective government.

I can’t remember an electorate being this sure of itself so far out from the election for some time.

 

- Stuff

Labour poll-axed in Digipoll

in big twubble

The latest Herald/Digipoll is out and the reading isn’t at all good for David Cunliffe or for Labour.

Labour has a two in the front of their number.

Labour’s support has sunk nearly six points and it is polling only 29.5 per cent in the Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The popularity of leader David Cunliffe has fallen by almost the same amount, to 11.1 per cent. That is worse than the 12.4 per cent worst rating of former leader David Shearer.

National could govern alone with 50.8 per cent if the poll were translated to an election result.

The popularity of John Key as Prime Minister has climbed by 4.6 points to 66.5 per cent.  Read more »

A message for Cunliffe?

You’ve gotta love context driven ads. Looks at this effort from the NZ Herald.

A message for David Cunliffe? Context driven advertising adds hurt of its own to Labour

A message for David Cunliffe? Context driven advertising adds hurt of its own to Labour

Corin Dann was almost in tears last night, but being a top notch political analyst thought good weather was a factor in Nationals surge. The Greens appear to have been rumbled as complete loons, what with shrieking about racism when none was on offer, living in a castle, twerking and then cuddling up to Kim Dotcom.

Andrea Vance in Fairfax seems equally perplexed and she puts it down to Cunliffe’s lack of exposure.

Cunliffe suffered from a lack of exposure in the last month, dropping two points in the preferred prime minister stakes to 10 per cent.  Key maintained 43 per cent from the last TVNZ poll in October.

I think we saw plenty of him flip flopping and trying to explain the debacle that was his baby bonus.  Read more »

One News poll signals disaster for left

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll is out and it isn’t pretty reading for the left wing or for Winston Peters.

Cuddling up to Kim Dotcom looks like it is electoral poison with the Greens dropping  5 points and Winston First sinking further.

National: 51% up 6 points
Labour: 34% no change
Greens: 8% down 5 points
NZ First: 3% down 1 point
Conservatives: 1% no change
Maori Party 1 % no change

United Future and Act can expect one seat each and that gives a clear margin to the centre-right.  Read more »

Roy Morgan poll increases pressure on Cunliffe

I don;t normally report on Roy Morgan polls, mainly because of their inconsistency.

However the left wing has clung to the Roy Morgan poll results with the same tenacity of a drowning man to a life preserver. It is the one poll that they think is accurate.

This is yesterday’s result.

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[The] New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48%, up 1%) increasing its lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (42%, down 2%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 0.5% (down 1%), ACT NZ (1%, up 1%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).  Read more »

Change of leader fails Labour in polls

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The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll is out and it is bad, bad news for those Labour proponents of a David Cunliffe led revival of Labour’s polling fortunes.

The membership didn’t listen to caucus and elected Cunliffe instead of Shane Jones. After this week in parliament with Cunliffe being smashed all around the house and Shane Jones showing what a true leader looks like there must be some serious head scratching going on amongst the members.

This latest poll will give them cause to stop and think about things, though I fear that it may be too late…with the election likely to be September there isn;t much time to do anything about it.

National is riding a wave of soaring optimism to start election year in pole position.

A new Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll puts National on 49.4 per cent against 31.8 per cent for Labour and 10 per cent for the Greens.

On those numbers National would win 64 seats in a 123-seat parliament – a lead of 10 seats over the combined Labour-Green vote and easily enough to govern alone before minor parties are taken into account.

The strong result for National comes against a backdrop of improving economic data, including a strong growth outlook of more than 3.5 per cent this year, a rise in confidence levels and a fall in unemployment to 6 per cent.  Read more »

Better bad than mad, confirmed by poll

The latest 3News poll confirms what I have been saying for a while…people prefer the bad rather than the mad.

winston

Prime Minister John Key’s U-turn on working with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is backed by a majority of the public.

A 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Mr Key is not alone in forgiving Mr Peters.

Seventeen years ago Mr Peters held the balance of power, and the 3 News poll has him in position to choose the Government again.

Dealing with him will be very difficult. Today he simply refused to answer seven out of 12 questions. One of the best answers 3 News got was simply a laugh.

But it’s no laughing matter for Mr Key, who has previously ruled Mr Peters out, but not anymore.

No is now a yes, and a majority, 54 percent of the public, say yes, work with him. And 36 percent say no, rule him out.

And National voters are more convinced.  Read more »

3News Poll, no big move for Labour after baby bribe

3newspoll

The latest 3News poll is out and there isn;t any big move at all. Mostly it is margin of error stuff.

National is down 1.8% to 44.5%, Labour up 1.3% to 33.5%, Greens gain 2% to go to 12.4% and NZ First has risen 1.5% to 5.7% holding the balance of power.

Sadly Act polled at 0%. Not a single person in the 1000 called for the poll said they’d support Act. I fear it is terminal.

John Key is still way out in front in the preferred PM stakes at 39% and there is no change at all for David Cunliffe sitting on 10.8%.

Winston Peters is the king maker and it is time National started softening its approach. It is a long time since 1999 and lots of water has gone under the bridge.  Read more »

Statistics and Headlines, compare and contrast

In October Herald put out a Digipoll with the quite stunning result that 45% of New Zealanders already supported Charter Schools without one having been opened. The heading though…

“Charter cash better spent on state schools – poll”

A narrow majority of New Zealanders oppose the opening of five charter schools next year and feel the funding would be better spent on state schools, a Herald-DigiPoll survey has found.   Read more »