Polls

One News/Colmar Brunton shows Dirty Politics barely registering

 

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Photo/ TVNZ

The left wing conspiracy and smear job initiated with illegal hacking against me and now being pushed hard by the left wing isn’t working.

They have been working towards this all year and now as more and more revealing details are released we can see it is a smear job aimed squarely at National.

The Fact that not a single email be tween me and Labour MPs, nor Facebook messages with the same, and ditto Green party and Winston shows that this is a targeted political smear.

They dare to claim the high ground.

If you believe it was mere coincidence that Labour’s campaign slogan is “Vote Positive” and isn’t related at all to the illegal hacking of my systems then I have a bridge I can sell you.

The good news for voters is that National remains strong and largely unaffected, with changes at the margin of error only.

The campaigning of the complicit media in aiding and abetting a criminal conspiracy to hijack our elections isn’t working.

National has taken a ‘Dirty Politics’ hit in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll, down two points to 48% while Labour has gained two and is sitting at 28%.

The poll accounts for the effects of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book but not this weekend’s developments.   Read more »

Understanding “The margin of error” on political polls – once and for all

thomas-lumley-firstline

via 3 News

 

You  might want to bookmark this article for future reference.  It draws on a very useful post I hacked from Professor Thomas Lumley on the Stats Chat blog:

The 3% ‘margin of error’ usually quoted for poll is actually the ‘maximum margin of error’, and is an overestimate for minor parties. On the other hand, it also assumes simple random sampling and so tends to be an underestimate for major parties.

Lower and upper ‘margin of error’ limits for a sample of size 1000 and the observed percentage, assuming that complications in sampling inflate the variance by a factor of 2, which empirically is about right for National. Read more »

12th rogue poll in a row shows Labour under 30%

TVNZ’s OneNews/Colmar Brunton poll has more bad news for Labour and for David Cunliffe.

It is the 12th poll in a row that shows them under 30% and sliding while National rides high.

David Cunliffe’s poll ratings are also the lowest since he took over from David Shearer.

The number aren’t good for Labour.

140727_One_News_Colmar_Brunton_poll_21-25_July_2014_prelim Read more »

ONE News Colmar Brunton poll tonight

sdfsd

A preview…

Let’s see the damage done by Cunliffe’s lunch with the Sex Pest, his scarf, the holiday and … himself.

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Labour clearly a women’s party – “Sorry for being a man” makes cynical sense

It has been staring us in the face, but we haven’t really admitted it to ourselves:  Labour is primarily targeting the female demographic.  Audrey Young has the hard data

Labour’s support among men has fallen to just 23.9 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey and leader David Cunliffe concedes it may have something to do with his “sorry for being a man” speech to a domestic violence symposium.

The party’s overall support fell from 30.5 per cent last month to 26.5 per cent this month.

Broken down into gender support, women’s support for Labour fell from 33.4 per cent last month to 29.1 per cent; and men’s support fell from 27.6 per cent last month to 23.9 per cent.

Labour has fairly consistently had greater support among women than men since Helen Clark became Prime Minister but male support has never been so low in Herald- DigiPoll records going back to 1999.

Represented by such a non-manly leader, and under the #manban gun internally, Labour continues to shed its male support in spades.   Read more »

Labour’s worst poll result in 15 years in Digipoll

 

We are voting positive #forabetternz...for National

We are voting positive #forabetternz…for National

The latest Herald Digipoll is out and The Cunliffe experiment is shown for what it is…abject failure.

Labour’s support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.

Its 26.5 per cent support is a slide of four points since June.

With just two months to the election, Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.

On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.

National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.

Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

The second-most-preferred PM out of Labour MPs is David Shearer, with 2.2 per cent, followed by Jacinda Ardern on 1.4 per cent.  Read more »

Labour has massive problems

Fairfax/Ipsos presents their data a little differently from other pollsters, but it does give you an insight into where Labour is in serious trouble.

National’s total support is 54.8% and Labour’s is 24.9%.

Let’s look at the demographics to find where Labour is in trouble.

With men:

 

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In the Upper North Island outside of Auckland:

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Obviously Labour banging on about the holiday highway is working a treat…for National. Read more »

Fairfax/Ipsos poll hammers the nails into Cunliffe’s coffin

If you thought the Roy Morgan poll was bad the Fairfax poll basically confirms that neither is rogue with similar numbers to each other.

National appears to be tightening its grip on the election, with our latest poll cementing its massive lead.

Today’s stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political poll has National on 54.8 per cent support – a staggering 30-point lead over Labour, but down 1.7 points from our last poll.

John Key is also preferred prime minister among most voters, at 53.7 per cent support to David Cunliffe’s 12.8.

Click here for full graphics.

The only glimmer of good news for Labour is that it appears to have reversed the slide in our previous poll and has risen 1.7 points, to 24.9 per cent.

But pollster Matt Benson said undecided voters were shaping up as an important factor and their numbers had been volatile in the previous three polls.

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

That will bring little cheer to Labour, however, as it prepares for its election campaign launch, now just weeks away.

Read more »

Labour’s preferred poll delivers more bad news

The Roy Morgan poll is Labour’s preferred poll, it is the one they claim is the most accurate. The news this week isn’t good for either Labour or David Cunliffe.

In fact it is rather demoralising.

I doubt the paid shills at The Standard will even mention it…they are rather ostrich like these days with polls.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong rise in support for National (51%, up 3%) and a substantial lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%) just more than two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party is 23.5% (down 4.5% - the lowest since November 22-24, 2011 – just before the 2011 New Zealand Election), the Greens are 15% (up 3% – the highest since August 26-September 8, 2013), New Zealand First is 6% (up 0.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1.5% (down 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

Read more »

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Latest Roy Morgan shows Labour mired in 20s

The latest poll from the left-wings favourite pollster, Roy Morgan, shows that Labour remains mired in the 20s. Every polling company now shows labour stuck in the debilitating and moral sapping 20s.

The Cunliffe Caper has failed, and with less than 80 days until the election they are in desperate trouble.

Things with polls have got so bad that the left-wing blogs no no longer report on them.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for National (48%, down 1.5%) but National are still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, unchanged).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has raised slightly overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is unchanged at 28%, the Greens are unchanged at 12%, New Zealand First is 5.5% (up 1.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 2.5% (unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.  Read more »