Last election Colin Craig reckoned that his polling showed him a long way ahead of National‚Äôs Mark Mitchell. Colin got hammered with Mark winning a majority of 12,222.
Colin‚Äôs dodgy polling was essentially push polling, and gave him terrible results.
Questions included both unprompted and prompted aspects, and sought to differentiate the responses regarding party voting intentions from candidate voting intentions.¬† Relevant questions ¬†included the following, in order of being asked:
1. For your party vote, have you decided who you will be voting for in the election?
2. Which party do you currently intend to vote for?
3. Have you heard of the Conservative Party?
4. Have you heard of Colin Craig?
Participants were read a brief preamble to provide context: ‚ÄėColin Craig is the leader of the Conservative Party of New Zealand. In the Auckland mayoral election, Colin came third with over 40,000 votes‚Äô. Then asked‚Ä¶
5. If Colin were to stand in as a candidate in your electorate, what would be the likelihood that you would vote for Colin to be your member of parliament (on a scale of 1 = definitely; 2 = likely; 3 = neutral; 4 = unlikely and 5 = very unlikely)?
Those who identified they were neutral or unlikely to vote for Craig were asked:
6¬†. Who do you intend to vote for?
There were additional questions relating specifically to how awareness was generated, as well as detailed policy questions. I‚Äôve been advised these questions are relevant to the Conservative Party‚Äôs campaign strategy, and so details can‚Äôt be released.
To say the least I was gobsmacked with this response. Not only did it confirm the conflict of interest but it exposed the highly suspect methodology used by Research First in obtaining what they¬†euphemistically¬†describe as a ‚Äúresult‚ÄĚ.
This is nothing short of a rigged poll. They lead respondents down a garden path and even prompted them as to what the required response should have been with poor questions. The poll surely is statistically invalid, in point of fact it is complete rubbish.
Now Colin Craig‚Äôs dodgy internal polls are telling him that Garth McVicar is winning in¬†Napier.¬† Read more »