Republican Party

Donald Trump tells Fox News to stick it

Donald Trump has told Fox News to stick their debate. He won’t be attending.

US Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump has withdrawn from a debate with party rivals this week out of anger at host Fox News , leaving the last encounter before Iowa’s pivotal nominating contest without the front-runner.

Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, told reporters after a combative news conference held by the candidate that Trump would definitely not be participating in the debate.

During the news conference before he addressed a large crowd in Marshalltown, Iowa, Trump expressed irritation that Fox News planned to leave in place as a moderator anchor Megyn Kelly, whose questioning of Trump at a debate last August angered him.

He also expressed displeasure at a Fox News statement on Monday night saying Trump would have to learn sooner or later that “he doesn’t get to pick the journalists” and that “we’re very surprised he’s willing to show that much fear about being questioned by Megyn Kelly”.

“I was all set to do the debate, I came here to do the debate. When they sent out the wise-guy press release done by some PR person along with (Fox News chairman) Roger Ailes, I said: ‘Bye bye, OK’.

“Let’s see how much money Fox makes without me in the debate,” he added.   Read more »

Is Sanders really ahead of Clinton?

There are many pundits, from the left-wing, crowing that Bernie Sanders is surging in the polls and has passed Hillary Clinton.

Apparently the donations have surged for Sanders after the news of the polls and Hillary Clinton attacking him for his donations.

But is he really in front? Let’s see what Nate Silver has to say. Remember, in last month’s INCITE:Politics we recommended his website for looking at the statistical analysis and probabilities of polling versus the guesses of the pundits.

First, you need to understand his methodology.

We launched our forecasts for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries today. For much more detail about how this all works, you can read here. But our premise is that, given the challenges inherent in predicting the primaries, we’ll be publishing two models instead of pretending we’ve found a magic bullet:

  • The first model, which we call polls-only, is based only on polls from one particular state. (Iowa polls in the case of Iowa, for example.) It’s basically an updated version of the model we used for the primariesfour years ago.
  • The second model, polls-plus, also considers endorsements and national polls, in addition to state polls, and tries to consider the effect that Iowa and New Hampshire could have on subsequent state contests. (National polls aren’t necessarily a positive for a candidate in the polls-plus model; instead, it’s a bearish indicator when a candidate’s state polls trail his national numbers.)

Historically, polls-plus would have been somewhat more accurate, but it’s pretty close — so we think the models are most useful when looked at together.

Read more »

Debate or ban? Even the republicans are losing their way

Trump is everything the media need – he fills the space between the adverts.  But he’s also gaining traction, so the Democratic party need to counter that.  Don’t expect them to win the high ground – they simply want to remove an American citizen’s right to move freely around his own country.

And oddly enough, they even have their Republican rival senator agreeing to a proposal that stops Trump from exercising his 1st Amendment rights to free speech in South Carolina.

Ausual, Democrat lawmakers are more concerned with Donald Trump’s rhetoric than they are about real issues impacting their respective states including crime, poverty, and terrorist threats.

To this end, South Carolina state Rep. John King (D) said he plans to introduce a resolution declaring that “xenophobic” Donald Trump is “not welcome” in his state.

At a rally in Rock Hill on Friday, Trump campaign staff had removed a Muslim woman who was protesting silently. Read more »

Obama marginalises “Climate deniers”, otherwise known as Republicans

Republicans don’t deny climate change, they deny man-made climate change, or significant man-made climate change, or they deny the world can actually reverse a natural trend by taxing people.

US President Barack Obama has scolded Republicans for denying climate change exists, unlike the majority of right-wing parties in the developed world who have admitted its importance, The Guardian reports.

“The American Republican party is the only major party that I can think of in the advanced world that effectively denies climate change,” he said on Friday (local time). “It’s an outlier.”

He says many key developers of the climate deal, agreed by almost 200 countries in Paris, come from centre-right governments.

But Republican presidential contenders have criticised the focus on climate change instead of terrorism in Tuesday’s debate, while Donald Trump, Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Texas Senator Ted Cruz all question the science behind it, according to The Guardian.   Read more »

What are Trump’s chances like?

There is a lot of talk about Donald Trump and his ability to try to fake out the GOP machine and gain the nomination.

I’m not sure he can, and so am concerned when you see people like David Farrar, who usually follow the numbers, start making silly predictions.

Another person who only looks at the numbers, Nate Silver, says there actually are 6 stages of doom for Donald Trump, and explains how he is the front-runner for now, but likely won’t come anywhere.

The recent polling surge by Donald Trump has launched a thousand stories about Trump’s “unprecedented campaign.” But it’s nothing all that unusual: Similar surges occurred for almost every Republican candidate four years ago, including Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich (twice).

History’s lesson isn’t necessarily that Trump’s candidacy will go bust tomorrow, however. There are plenty of examples of fringe or factional candidates who held on to their support for much longer than the month or two that Cain and Bachmann did. Sometimes, they did well enough in Iowa or New Hampshire, or even won them. Pat Buchanan claimed New Hampshire in 1996, for instance, while Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008. Steve Forbes took 30 percent of the Iowa vote in 2000.

The lesson, rather, is that Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination.

If you want absurd specificity, I recently estimated Trump’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent. How did I get there? By considering the gantlet he’ll face over the next 11 months — Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom.

Read more »

Trump creates a bloody mess

via Thewrap

via Thewrap

Donald Trump has been uninvited to a Republican party event over a suggestion that a debate moderator was tough on him because she was menstruating.

The off-handed comment unleashed a new storm of criticism of Trump on Saturday and put him in damage control mode as he sought to nuance his remark.

The billionaire came under fire from his own party after a particularly crude accusation that Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, one of the moderators at Thursday’s Republican presidential debate, had singled him out with rough treatment at that forum. Read more »

Quote of the Day

Today’s quote of the day is from The Donald:

Trump did not say what percentage of his income he pays in taxes, and was open about the efforts he makes to keep his rates low.

“I fight like hell to pay as little as possible for two reasons,” Trump said. “Number one, I’m a businessman. And that’s the way you’re supposed to do it. And you put the money back into your company and employees and all of that. But the other reason is that I hate the way our government spends our taxes. I hate the way they waste our money. Trillions and trillions of dollars of waste and abuse. And I hate it.”

Read more »

Is Donald Trump’s strategy going to work for him? Nope

The less well informed think The Donald will triumph and become president…they are wrong.

Truth Revolt reports:

Donald Trump has the worst rating among all GOP contenders when Gallup asked Americans to say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the respective candidates. While Trump came second overall on the favorability ranking, his very high unfavorable ranking puts him squarely in a negative light for the majority of Americans.

Trump is viewed favorably by 32% of American adults but unfavorably by 56%. A further 13% said they had no opinion or had not heard of Trump – leading to a “net favorable” rating of -24. Chris Christie has the second-worst rating at -9. Lindsey Graham is third with -7.

Jeb Bush is the candidate with the highest favorable rating; 35% of those polled said they viewed the former Florida governor in a positive light.   Read more »

Sledge of the Day

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard sledges out Hilary Clinton.

“Like Hillary Clinton, I too have traveled hundreds of thousands of miles around the globe,” said Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard. “But unlike her, I’ve actually accomplished something. You see, Mrs. Clinton, flying is not an accomplishment; it is an activity.”

She was speaking at the Iowa Freedom Summit and had attendees on their feet with her speech.

The audience roared and was suddenly engaged, hanging on her words as she criticized Clinton on one issue after another. And when she landed on Benghazi—”Unlike Hillary Clinton, I know what difference it makes that our American ambassador and three other brave Americans were killed in a deliberate terrorist attack”—the crowd surged to its feet with a standing ovation.

“That’s the first time I’ve ever seen her in person, and, frankly, I was moved by the speech. That takes a lot,” says Sam Clovis, a former conservative radio host and tea-party favorite in Iowa. “It was the perfect speech on the perfect topic at the perfect place at the perfect time given in the perfect manner.”

Fiorina, the only Republican woman actively considering a run for the White House, is taking on Clinton more forcefully and directly than any other GOP contender. It’s a deliberate strategy meant to make headlines, differentiate her from the pack, and elevate her position on the national stage. And in the process, it’s winning her friends, as Fiorina assumes an attack role that many Republican strategists think male GOP candidates need to avoid.

Read more »

Good indicator the Jeb Bush is serious

Jeb Bush is looking more and more certain as a contender for the GOP nomination after he resigned from all his board positions.

Potential US Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush has resigned from all of his corporate and non-profit board member positions, the Washington Post reports, as the former Florida governor explores a run for the White House.

The Post, citing a statement emailed to the paper by one of Bush’s aides late on New Year’s Eve, said he even stepped down from the board of his education foundation.

The statement added that he was still evaluating next steps for businesses for which he serves as an owner or principal partner, including consulting firm Jeb Bush & Associates, the Post reported.

Reuters could not independently verify the report. Representatives for Bush were not immediately available. Read more »