Republican Party

Comment of the Day (and a new idea for the Labour Party)

Whaleoil stalwart Sally opined:

The Party of Envy and Bitter are running out of potential donors to fund their electoral campaign.

So far they have upset foreigners, business people, bankers, accountants, Indian and Asian chefs, lawyers, wealthy people, and 72% of the voting population who are called dumb and stupid by their followers for not supporting them.

Will have to stick to their $2 beggar letters because who among the sane would want to donate to angry Andy and his going down the tube political party.

Labour certainly have turned into Nigel No Mates, and getting money out of their own supporters may need a more aggressive touch, like this one from the Republican Party in the US:


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Trump will need to win on first ballot

If the Republican nomination fails to reach the threshold for delegates before the convention then it will become a contested convention.

If that happens, and there is a good chance that it will then Donald Trump will need to win on the first ballot.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains:

If you really think the chance of a multi-ballot convention is 63 percent, but also still have Trump with a 56 percent chance of winning the nomination, that implies there’s a fairly good chance that Trump will win if voting goes beyond the first ballot. That’s probably wrong. If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s probably screwed.

The basic reason is simple. Most of the 2,472 delegates with a vote in Cleveland probably aren’t going to like Trump.

Let’s back up a bit. In most of our discussions about delegates here at FiveThirtyEight, we treat them as though they’re some sort of statistical unit. We might say a candidate “racked up 44 delegates” in the same way we’d say Steph Curry scored 44 points. But those delegates aren’t just a scoring mechanism: Delegates are people, my friends. Delegates are people!

And as I said, they’re mostly people who aren’t going to like Trump, at least if the excellent reporting from Politico and other news organizations is right. (If Trump turns out to have more support among GOP delegates than this reporting suggests, even marginally, that could end up mattering a great deal.) How can that be? In most states, the process to select the men and women who will serve as delegates is separate from presidential balloting. In Massachusetts, for instance, Trump won 49 percent of the GOP vote on March 1 — his highest share in any state to date — to earn 22 of the state’s 42 delegates. But the people who will serve as delegates haven’t been chosen yet. That will happen at a series of congressional district conventions later this month and then a Republican state meeting in May or June. According to Politico, most of those delegates are liable to favor Ted Cruz or John Kasich rather than Trump. Twenty-two of them will still be bound to Trump on the first ballot, but they can switch after that. The same story holds in a lot of other states: in Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina, for instance — also states that Trump won.   Read more »

How terrorism helps Trump

FiveThirtyEight looks at the numbers and how terrorism has helped Trump before, and how it is likely to help him again after Brussels.

Before President Obama made a statement on the terrorist attacks in Brussels today, presidential contender Donald Trump had already weighed in: first on Twitter and then on Fox News and NBC, which interviewed him by phone.1

Trump would “close up our borders” in response to Brussels, he said in the Fox News interview, adding that the U.S. would have to be “very, very vigilant as to who we allow into this country.” The comments echoed proposals issued by Trump after previous acts of terror. Following the series of terrorist attacks in Paris on Nov. 13, Trump appeared to propose (and thenpartly pulled back from) a national database to register Muslims. Then, after the attacks in San Bernardino, California, on Dec. 2, Trump called for a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.”

We might expect more rhetoric along these lines from Trump because the Paris and San Bernardino attacks appeared to boost his standing in national opinion polls, as well as the amount of media attention he received. And Trump’s rhetoric on terrorism will likely continue to focus heavily on immigration — according to exit polls, Republican voters aren’t particularly keen on Trump’s crisis-management skills, but most favor his ban on Muslim immigrants, and immigration overall is one of the top draws for Trump voters.

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Trump’s path to victory

There are a great many people speculating on how Donald Trump can win.

I prefer data, which is why I read FiveThirtyEight for my information. Subscribers to INCITE: Politics will know that I recommend this site to everyone interested in knowing what is going on in US politics.

They explore the path to victory for Donald Trump, or at least get close enough to make a claim for him to be the candidate.

Some of their key points are:

harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): My biggest takeaway is how on the knife’s edge this is going to be. We probably won’t know whether Trump is going to clear the 1,237 threshold until at least June. It’s March 21 — we have a long way to go.

dave (David Wasserman, House editor at the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight contributor): First off, while we don’t know whether Trump will hit 1,237 or not, we should all be able to agree on one takeaway: For the first time in a very long time, every state will matter — and yeah, this thing’s going all the way to June. I don’t see any way for Trump to attain 1,237 untilJune 7, and I don’t see any realistic way for him to be mathematically eliminated from 1,237 before June 7.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): When I was filling out my projections, I was a little bit surprised that I had Trump coming up short of 1,237 since I thought I was being fairly optimistic for him in individual states. However, once you account for the facts that (1) there are quite a few uncommitted delegates and (2) Trump isn’t likely to do so well in less populous states west of the Mississippi, which is a fair bit of what’s out there — well then, Trump has to do really well everywhere else.

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How the Republicans will steal the election from Trump


via Imgur

via Imgur

Political commentator Roger Stone, an advisor to the Donald Trump 2016 presidential campaign and a close confidante of the Republican frontrunner, has been to every Republican National Convention since 1964 and has worked the floor in every convention since 1972, including for Ronald Reagan in 1976, the last time there was a contested GOP Convention. “So let’s just say I know the ropes,” he declares in an exclusive piece for Infowars. He also states that GOP insiders “have found a way to lie, cheat and steal Trump” out of the presidential nomination.

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Trump takes Nevada

Screen Shot 2016-02-24 at 9.18.53 PM

Donald Trump dished out a hiding in the Nevada caucus yesterday, making it three wins in a row.

Politic reports:

Donald Trump trounced his rivals in the Nevada caucuses on Tuesday, notching his third consecutive victory and giving the Manhattan mogul even more momentum heading into Super Tuesday next week, when voters in a dozen states will cast their ballots.

Trump’s decisive win, which the Associated Press announced immediately after polls closed, was propelled by an electorate even more enraged than the ones that had swept him to wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and a second-place showing in Iowa.

“We love Nevada. We love Nevada,” Trump declared in his victory speech. “You’re going to be proud of your president and you’re going to be even prouder of your country.”   Read more »

Has TrusTED become BusTED?


You can do dirty things if you have the support of your peers, and Ted Cruz doesn’t.

His skullduggery of the past is now coming back to haunt him.

Marco Rubio won the day before Nevada’s caucuses — and Ted Cruz lost.

While Rubio was racking up big endorsements, he also managed to exact a pound of political flesh from his closest rival on Monday as Cruz’s campaign was thrown into turmoil over new allegations of “dirty tricks.”

“When you stand in front of a sign at every rally that says ‘TrustTED,’ with ‘Ted’ being the key part of the brand, you have to protect that brand at all costs — and they’ve lost that brand,” said Bruce Haynes, a GOP strategist. “Cruz cannot afford three days of the news cycle with everyone scrutinizing everything they’ve done that might be unseemly, so they had one choice to try and stop the bleeding, especially with Rubio on a bit of a rocket ride right now.”     Read more »

Interesting that money in politics doesn’t always change things

The left wing always moan about big money in politics. They cry that people can buy elections with loads of money.

Were that true then we’d have an Act Party/Conservative Party coalition government.

Jeb Bush has pissed away $150 million proving, yet again, that money can’t buy you an election.

Jeb Bush, unable to muster enthusiasm for his presidential bid beyond the family network that helped him raise a record sum exceeding $150 million, is suspending his campaign following a disappointing finish in South Carolina.

The decision follows a string of underwhelming primary finishes for the former Florida governor, including in New Hampshire where he invested heavily and bet on a massive ground organization but still finished behind Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz.    Read more »

Donald Trump tells Fox News to stick it

Donald Trump has told Fox News to stick their debate. He won’t be attending.

US Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump has withdrawn from a debate with party rivals this week out of anger at host Fox News , leaving the last encounter before Iowa’s pivotal nominating contest without the front-runner.

Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, told reporters after a combative news conference held by the candidate that Trump would definitely not be participating in the debate.

During the news conference before he addressed a large crowd in Marshalltown, Iowa, Trump expressed irritation that Fox News planned to leave in place as a moderator anchor Megyn Kelly, whose questioning of Trump at a debate last August angered him.

He also expressed displeasure at a Fox News statement on Monday night saying Trump would have to learn sooner or later that “he doesn’t get to pick the journalists” and that “we’re very surprised he’s willing to show that much fear about being questioned by Megyn Kelly”.

“I was all set to do the debate, I came here to do the debate. When they sent out the wise-guy press release done by some PR person along with (Fox News chairman) Roger Ailes, I said: ‘Bye bye, OK’.

“Let’s see how much money Fox makes without me in the debate,” he added.   Read more »

Is Sanders really ahead of Clinton?

There are many pundits, from the left-wing, crowing that Bernie Sanders is surging in the polls and has passed Hillary Clinton.

Apparently the donations have surged for Sanders after the news of the polls and Hillary Clinton attacking him for his donations.

But is he really in front? Let’s see what Nate Silver has to say. Remember, in last month’s INCITE:Politics we recommended his website for looking at the statistical analysis and probabilities of polling versus the guesses of the pundits.

First, you need to understand his methodology.

We launched our forecasts for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries today. For much more detail about how this all works, you can read here. But our premise is that, given the challenges inherent in predicting the primaries, we’ll be publishing two models instead of pretending we’ve found a magic bullet:

  • The first model, which we call polls-only, is based only on polls from one particular state. (Iowa polls in the case of Iowa, for example.) It’s basically an updated version of the model we used for the primariesfour years ago.
  • The second model, polls-plus, also considers endorsements and national polls, in addition to state polls, and tries to consider the effect that Iowa and New Hampshire could have on subsequent state contests. (National polls aren’t necessarily a positive for a candidate in the polls-plus model; instead, it’s a bearish indicator when a candidate’s state polls trail his national numbers.)

Historically, polls-plus would have been somewhat more accurate, but it’s pretty close — so we think the models are most useful when looked at together.

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