Rob Salmond gave a speech at the Labour congress and David Cunliffe also used his “research”.
This is Labour’s plan to win the election…are you ready…they are going to pray that National drops 6% on election day from what the polls say.
I’m not kidding…read it.
At my briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, I made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up inÂ David Cunliffe’s speech.
National has dropped six percent each time.
For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim. All I did was find any published poll where the field dates included the day three months before election day1, then compared that to the final election result.
2008 election: Final results compared to simple polling average 90 days prior
Firm Dates Nat Roy Morgan 28 July – 10 Aug 48 Fairfax 6-12 Aug 54 Colmar Brunton 9-14 Aug 51 Average 51.0 Election 8 Nov 44.9 Difference -6.1
2011 election: Final results compared to simple polling average 90 days prior
Firm Dates Nat Digipoll 19-26 Aug 52 Roy Morgan 15-28 Aug 52 Fairfax 25-29 Aug 57.1 Average 53.1 Election 26 Nov 47.3 Difference -5.8
This six point drop in National’s performance often went to parties opposed to National. Famously, in 2011 the big beneficiaries were New Zealand first, who rocketed from around 2.5% in the polls all the way to 6.7% three months later. In 2008 the Greens were significant net beneficiaries of camaign-time changes.