Steven Joyce

Like Boris Johnson in the UK, Steven Joyce has explained in an op-ed piece about why we are struggling in New Zealand, basically because a bunch of can’ts keep stopping us:

The people who say “we want jobs” but then in the next breath say “but you can’t do that … you can’t build that there … you can’t expand that … you can’t explore for that there … you can’t live here … you can’t invest in property here – you just can’t do that!”

And very quickly we start limiting our options. Through the 2000s, as a country, we progressively boxed ourselves in more and more to depend on fewer and fewer industries based on what the “can’ts” said. At the end of it the government of the day was pretty much down to talking only about two of the ingredients – skills training and subsidising entrepreneurs that don’t use resources (the so-called clean-tech sector) – as the bits the “can’ts” were most comfortable with. The rest was off the table.

Lots of Can’ts.

The irony is a lot of the “can’t” behaviour is designed to protect a Kiwi way of life that wouldn’t be here if those who say “you can’t” had applied their rules 50 or 100 years ago.

The reality is you don’t build an economy by lopping off an arm and both legs before you start. A small country like New Zealand has to make the best of all its natural advantages to lift incomes and give more people more chances to make it while staying right here.

We therefore need to stop the endless debate about which industry will save us and focus on all industries where New Zealand has a natural advantage. That’s why the Government is implementing and further developing its 120-point action plan that will help build a stronger, more competitive economy.

That doesn’t mean you don’t take care. Big developments need to have the right environmental protections and mitigations, industry needs good health and safety law, and foreign investment should be sought where it adds value. Ensuring those safeguards are in place is a far healthier approach than just saying no.

We live in a world increasingly without borders – at least not as our grandparents knew them. People these days can base their skills, their capital and their ideas just about anywhere. They don’t have to be in New Zealand.

So when we think about the “you can’ts” we need to think about the mobility of people and money. Each time we say “you can’t” carries a cost. That doesn’t mean we should always say “yes”, but we do need to carefully weigh up the consequences of saying no.

And we should learn to stop listening to people who in the one breath chant “more jobs, more jobs” and then in the next breath say “but don’t do that, or that, or that”.

We need to encourage the development of all of our opportunities if we are to prosper.

I have long held the view that when people say “you can’t” what they really mean is they can’t.

This weekend is Labour’s summer school where they probably indoctrinate impressionable young people that the warped left wing world view actually can work. Somewhere. At some point in the future. They probably also teach how to bugger drunks draped over swiss balls and get away with it too, but that is probably not mentioned much in public.

Fair play to Labour. They had their worst result since 1928 last year, have a party broke and that selects useless, nasty and damaging candidates on the list ahead of good ones like Stuart Nash and Kelvin Davis, but they still run a summer school.

Why National doesn’t run a summer school is a total mystery, much like the rest of Peter Goodfellow’s tenure as President. He seemed to think it was a party time sinecure, not a full time job. It is hard to think of a single successful initiative within National that can be attributed to Peter’s leadership.

Nope, I thought about it, there isn’t a single one. The accolades for the election strategy and success can be rightly awarded to Steven Joyce and Jo de Joux. John Key can take credit for keeping everything under control with his MPs and remaining personally popular which papered over the yawning chasms in the party machine. Even fundraising was largely conducted by people other than the President, though he is busy trying claim credit for that in between going to war with bloggers who are actually on the same team.

In point of fact the only news that featured Peter Goodfellow was bad news. Compare that with Judy Kirk, who worked tirelessly in the background picking up cheques and putting in place initiatives like the Candidates College . Unfortunately most of Judy’s legacy has been squandered by an indolent president.

So a big credit to Labour, that despite all the hurdles that they face, they are focussing on training and the future by having a Summer School.

As the union goes to the media talking about the protection of “their” jobs and calls are being made for the missing in action Len Brown to step up, it may be useful for Whaleoil readers to know who the roll call of names are in the snowballing Ports crisis. Here are the major figures, a brief history, and their involvement

Anti-Ports

Garry Parsloe –  tough, gruff and staunch leader of the Maritime Union of NZ. A lot smarter than he is given credit for, but not smart enough to avoid an asymmetrical war with a blogger. Supported by his union, desperate to hold on to the benefits and working conditions of the 1980s (ironically the last time he appeared in newspapers for all the wrong reasons), and avoid contracting or competition for labour at the ports, even if it means pay rises for their workers. Those who start work at the wharves are ruthlessly drilled on the history of the Ports, and reminded of the “struggles” of their forebears for the perks they now enjoy. The Maritime Union is an old red leftist union of old communists still practicing “internationalism”. They have as recently as September of this year supported the Port of Longview in Washington, USA, for their strikes against management. MUNZ have also expressed political views on global mining, Pike River and Mexican labour disputes. They are a political organisation – make no mistake of that.

Mike Lee – ex wharfie, now supercity councillor, who rose to become chairman of the old Auckland Regional Council, which bought back the 20% of the Ports which were owned by shareholders around 7 years ago. As Chairman of the ARC, Lee used Ports of Auckland dividends to pay for his transport projects, and by owning 100% was able to demand excessive dividends out of the eye of the public. (therein is a good reason why having a mixed ownership model is good for SOEs – it keeps the govt honest). During the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the Ports were in serious trouble with their debt levels, and were mercifully bailed out in part by the National government buying Queens Wharf, ostensibly for tourism reasons. Will be marshaling the left forces on council to stay strong for the union badged workers, even though this hurts the Auckland Council position.

Len Brown – It is highly likely that Len Brown is sympathetic to the union cause, though would be keen to stay out and not get involved in the conflict. However, Mike Lee will be exerting massive amounts of pressure on Brown to stay staunch to the workers, while the Herald this morning asks “where is the Mayor”. Brown’s strategy of turning off the cellphone and only replying by email belies the fact he will be sweating profusely over being smoked out on an actual position that would then require leadership, especially one where he would be at odds with his left-wing instincts and left wing mates.

Other left-wing councillors – Sandra Coney, Richard Northey and Cathy Casey will be other staunch left-wing councillors backing the unions against the Ports asset they are tasked with the responsibility to oversee.

Pro-Ports

Tony Gibson – the CEO of Ports of Auckland, who took over from the mild-mannered Mr Magoo Danish Jens Madsen. Gibson knows he is up against a union that will play nasty and brutally against attempts to bring Ports labour practices into the 21st century. Gibson has the strong support of the Ports Board.

Gary Swift – Chief Executive of Auckland Council Investments Ltd who are tasked with monitoring the ownership of the shared that the council owns in investments like the Ports, Auckland Airport etc. Swift is a professional company director, ex Watercare, and under no illusions as to what he is up against with the unions. ACIL received the support of a number of councillors at a December 8 council meeting, which fell down a centre-right/ independent and left/Maori divide. The Labour/City Vision/left bloc, along with the Maori statutory board members, voted against supporting the Ports of Auckland business plan.

Chris Fletcher – leader of the C&R bloc on council. Though Fletcher’s history as Mayor was uninspiring and her political views seen as fluffy centrist, her timing and handling of the Ports crisis has so far been excellent. Her leadership in pushing the Mayor to take a position and back the Ports Board has sent shockwaves through the independents on council who have so far been timid and compliant in the Mayor’s hands. Her role will have cemented her as the leader of the opposition on council, and given some hope that C&R remains the pre-eminent centre-right force in Auckland.

Steven Joyce – the Minister of Infrastructure has avoided any public commentary so far, other than a bland statement that they would only enter the dispute if asked to intervene. However, the issues of industrial labour strife will not have been lost on Joyce and the National led government. They will be watching developments here like a hawk, and probably have some strategies up their sleeves if asked to make a statement. Is thought to favour a long term alliance between POAL and Ports of Tauranga, without compromising the independent ownership of each Port.

Others

Mark Cairns – CEO of the Port of Tauranga, who though is sympathetic with what POAL are trying to do in having industrial relations practices that are similar to Tauranga, can simply not believe his luck in having a bunch of Auckland union drongos drive profits into the hands of PoT and Infratil, the majority owners of the Port of Tauranga. Is probably working the phones hard over summer with every major shipping company, importer and exporter to shift business to the Bay of Plenty. “Hello, is that you Toyota?”. PoT’s share price is up around 6% since December 1, not a bad rise in price for a utlity company that is supposed to be a defensive yield based stock.

Infratil – the only people in New Zealand who can run infrastructure properly in New Zealand. Majority owners of the Ports of Tauranga. CEO Marko Bogoievski and Executive Chairman Lloyd Morrison are highly regarded as top NZ businessmen – actually, the whole Infratil board looks like the who’s who of NZ business. They will be delirious with joy at the opportunities being presented to them.

UPDATE: Infratil are no longer on the PoT share register. They did own 24.7% at one stage, then owned ~5% around 2005 and sold down completely in 2006/2007.  The PoT majority shareholder is Quayside Securities (subsidiary of BOP Regional Council) who own 55%.

I have had the shareholding of BOPRC described as a fantastic cornerstone shareholder (because that is how they behave despite owning a majority shareholding) as they allow the Board and Management complete autonomy to run the port commercially as the Port Companies intends.

We have had quite a few nominations. I have decided to not include John Key because as the captain and coach he would win hands down. So the nominations for the Whaleoil Awards – Best Minister are:

Tony Ryall – has there been a single Health related PR disaster in his time at the helm? I can’t think of one. The fact that he wanted a second term at this job when it traditionally has been the graveyard for many a political career speaks volumes of his tenacity.

Judith Collins – smacked around Corrections, implemented container cells and launched private prisons again, replaced Barry Matthews. In Police she turned around morale, gave Howard Broad his beans, sidelined useless contenders for his replacement and got in a solid Commissioner that the troops respected. She also stepped up to take the hard jobs that Simon Power refused to do, the implementation of 3 strikes, car crushing legislation and dealing with a wayward Supreme Court judge. One of the things she pushed for as well as Minister for Veterans Affairs is the funding of travel for Veterans going to commemorations. Wayne Mapp dropped the ball on that one and Crusher again stepped up to clean the mess.

Lockwood Smith – I am nominating Lockwood Smith for bringing respect and gravitas back tot he role of Speaker. I suspect though that Winston Peters will make life difficult once again, but Lockwood has dealt to him int eh past beating him a selection battle many years ago.

Steven Joyce – nominated for implementing the Kopu Bridge, early and under budget. Also for studiously ignoring the bleating attempts at extortion from Len Brown and his fellow travelers for billions of other people’s money to build a stupid train-set.

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The new Kopu Bridge is finally open.

I well remember years and years of sitting in long queues at the Kopu Bridge waiting to go to Pauanui for my holidays, originally as a passenger in Dad’s car later as a driver when I would be towing the Hobie cat or a trailer. I once even road across the old bridge bridge when my Scout Troop cycled from Auckland to Pauanui one weekend.

I also remember the extensive lobbying that occurred in the 90s when Maurice Williamson was Transport Minister. Jeanette Fitzsimons when MP for Coromandel vociferously opposed anyone even speaking of the bridge.

Maurice never did get the drive built, despite my father ringing him every time he was stuck in traffic at the bridge and reminding him.

Steven Joyce has however managed to get it all done.

The Biggest Loser: Steven Joyce & National

So focused on protecting his own power Joyce refused to let John Key give the David Cameron speech to get rid of MMP.

As I have been predicting for a long time, National will not have viable coalition partners in 2014. Joyce’s short term focus on protecting his own power means the political environment became much, much tougher for National long term. You can see the proof of this in the gloating posts from left wing sites who know that the real battle was won in the referendum.

Biggest Winner: Russel Norman

Russel somehow managed to get the batshit crazy wing of the Green Party not to speak too much. He was was greatly aided by the departure of Keith Locke, Sue Bradford and Sue Kedgely and ran a professional, disciplined campaign that didn’t go off on a stupid leftwing tangent. 13 MPs is a huge tribute to Russel.

Unfortunately for Russel he is going to continually have to contend with the kind of dickhead that wants to sabotage National signs. Joylon and his merry men caused a massive diversion and embarrassment, and while the looney activist wing of the party are still around Russel is always going to have to watch the enemy within harder than the enemy without. Russel still managed to emerge from this with some credit with his prompt and unconditional apology to National and offer to remedy the situation.

Steven Joyce has released the Twelve biggest Lies of Labour. It was only going to be 11 but Phil lied about the Police last night:

12.      Labour left the economy in good shape. WRONG - The economy had been in recession all year in 2008, floating mortgage rates were at 10.9 per cent, government spending was up 50 per cent in five years, and Treasury      was forecasting debt to rise out of control forever.

11.      National has cut hundreds of millions from early childhood  education.  WRONG – ECE funding has risen 40 per cent over the past three years.

10.      ‘We will get back into surplus the same time as National.’  WRONG –      Under any straightforward scrutiny of Labour’s revenue and expenditure  numbers over the next four years.

9.      ‘We will only borrow $2.6 billion more than National over the next three  years.’  WRONG – Latest calculation is $15.6 billion extra over four  years (excluding the Greens).

8.      ‘Labour would forgo power company dividends and reduce prices.’       WRONG – Labour now says it will keep dividend income in government  accounts.

7.      ‘National will sell Kiwibank’ – WRONG

6.      ‘Borrowing money to buy assets in the Super Fund is not borrowing.’       YEAH RIGHT

5.      Fruit and vegetable prices ‘continue to spiral upward’.  WRONG –      currently same price as November 2008.

4.      Prices have risen four times faster than wages in past three years.      WRONG – After tax wages up 18 per cent in last three years, prices up 8      per cent.

3. Mixed ownership means forgoing dividends of $6-700 million per year.  WRONG      – Actually, around $220 million per year, and save that amount at least in reduced interest.

2. The  income gap withAustralia has widened.  WRONG – After tax incomes here have risen faster thanAustralia over the past three years.

1. Police recruitment being cancelled for all of next year.  WRONG – One intake only postponed      two months because of increased staff retention.

“Labour said they would campaign on the issues, but in fact they’ve gone back to the old Labour way of making things up, and hoping if they make a false allegation often enough people would start to believe it.”

We all know that Labour’s numbers don’t stack up. They are banking the world on Capital Gains Tax filling the massive holes in their budget. The problem is that no one really believes them because Phil Goff keeps muffing the numbers. Phil Goff fails the Blink Test and as a result so does Labour.

Labour still wants to borrow billions more than National at a time in the world where debt is considered toxic.

David Farrar points out as did Steven Joyce yesterday that it isn’t just Labour’s big spending policies that should have us worried it it the policies of the “Coalition Stack”.

We don’t have much to worry about on the National side. If ACT can deliver a couple more seats off of the back of a John Banks win in Epsom we know that they will be looking fore a reduction in debt and in government spending.

This isn’t the case with the Coalition Stack on the left. It includes Labour, Greens, Winston First and the Mana party. All those parties have massive spending committments and as Farrar points out they will all have reasonable stakes in such a hodge-podge of a government should it get over the line.

Quite apart from the fact that Phil Goff has ruled out Hone Harawira (are we really going to believe Phil wouldn’t cut a deal?) and Winston has ruled out everyone (like he did previously), in order to govern Phil Goff must work with all of them. But Labour won’t be in a position of massive power like they have every other time, they will be diminished and have to share, something they don’t do well.

When you add up the spending in the left wing Coalition Stack what you find is actually a mountain of debt that can’t possibly be funded from labour’s capital gains tax. That would require heroic assumptions from even the most optimistic Labour flunky.

Make no mistake, debt is toxic, we have too much now but under the Coalition Stack that Labour would lead that debt mountain would only get worse.

Phil Goff needs to explain that should he be in a position to form a government how exactly he is proposing to pay for the Green promises and NZ First promises and Mana promises. He can’t run from this, he can’t hide, he has to front. If he is to govern with the motley crue of the left and all their big promises he must tell New Zealand how he intends to pay for it.

Steven Joyce has released additional figures to show the huge borrowing that Phil Goff is going to have to agree to in order to govern. Not just his own massive election promises but also that of the Greens:

“The Greens have a huge number of spending policies and none of them are costed. Some are eye-wateringly expensive. We’ve calculated that just nine of the Greens’ centrepiece policies would add about $25 billion to debt over the next four years, in addition to what Labour is already planning.

“Even if Labour agrees to just 25 per cent of these policies promoted by the Greens as part of a coalition deal, we would be looking at extra debt of more than $6 billion over four years, on top of the $15.6 billion that Labour is already promising to borrow. New Zealand simply can’t afford a big-spending Government like that at this time. That would take the total to around $22 billion of extra borrowing.

“Taken together, the Greens and Labour policies would cost tens of thousands of jobs and massively ramp up debt.”

Mr Joyce says the pricey Greens proposals include (costs over four years):
• Extending paid parental leave to 13 months = $4 billion
• Extending the ‘In-Work’ tax credit to beneficiaries = $1.7 billion
• Extending unemployment benefit to all students over summer = $1.6 billion
• Universal Student Allowance at the level of unemployment benefit = $4.2 billion
• Free ‘wellness checks and dental check’ = $3.6 billion
• Wiping one year’s student debt for each year worked in New Zealand = $3 billion
• Green jobs initiatives = $3.2 billion.

And these are just a few of the Greens policies.

All of the oil bar a bit of residual muck has now been successfully pumped off the MV Rena. They now have the tricky job of removing the containers.

The pumping of oil from the Rena has been completed, Prime Minister John Key confirmed today.

Mr Key said the Awanui, which was collecting the oil, was expected to leave the grounded ship this afternoon.

It had pumped about 1350 tonnes in total and the remaining oil was a small amount that would have to be mopped up.

“This is an important milestone. It’s been a very successful operation and the people of Tauranga will be happy that we haven’t had the environmental disaster some predicted.”

He said the people of Tauranga and the salvors deserved credit for their efforts.

Work could now begin on removing containers from the Rena, which Transport Minister Steven Joyce said would take months “at least”.

Well done the salvors and well done to the volunteers too who have helped clean the beaches.