National are worried because of the low turnout in National seats at the last election…that is complacency kicking in. Labour are worried because they think the missing million are all their voters.
It’s a looming spectre both National and Labour say could derail the election, but which party stands to lose the most from a low voter turnout at the polls?
Figures from the latestÂ Stuff-IpsosÂ poll show 77 per cent of people say only unforeseen events like illness or disaster would stop them voting.
When the remainder were asked what might put them off voting, 17.6 per cent said it was too difficult to get to a polling station, while 8 per cent said they were too busy and a further 8 per cent said they didn’t know enough about the issues or the candidates.
The data suggests this election could mirror 2011 when turnout sunk to 74.2 per cent – the lowest Â since 1981.
National Party campaign director Steven Joyce said despite many polls showing the election was National’s to lose, a Labour-led government was still a realistic outcome.
“I think firstly, these are polls and the nature of polls is that they’re people’s opinions at a point in time and that makes it a reasonably costless sort of opinion.”
Joyce said the bulk of the missing voters were likely National supporters who thought the election was a foregone conclusion. Â Â Read more »
Two Fridays past David Cunliffe stood up in front of women’s refuge and apologised for being a man.
He said it was because men overwhelmingly figure in domestic violence statistics and then he went on to decry a rape culture in New Zealand.
I said at the time that David Cunliffe was insincere and I said that because I knew of the tory that I was about to break that proved just how insincere David Cunliffe is when it comes to rape and to domestic violence.
While David Cunliffe wrote a “pro forma” letter Â to immigration on behalf of a Labour party donor despite claiming to never have met the man he refused to assist a constituent who approached him over a sensitive issue concerning ACC and the suicide of a rape victim.
Refused unless that constituent could help him gather dirt on Steven Joyce.
Perhaps if Mike Rowley had been a donor to the Labour party he might have got some assistance without ever having had to meet David Cunliffe.
Labour and David Cunliffe have made much of the alleged “rape culture” that supposedly exists in New Zealand, yet when asked to assist a constituent on a sensitive matter involving the suicide of a rape victim what did David Cunliffe do?
Did he seek to help?Â Read more »
by Stephen Cook
Under-fire Labour leader David Cunliffe is in the thick of more controversy â this time accused of refusing to help an Auckland man with a delicate ACC matter unless he agreed to âdish the dirtâ on a senior Cabinet minister.
Just weeks after his credibility took a hit after the Donghua Liu affair and the whole âIâm sorry for being a man â saga, Cunliffe has now emerged as the central figure in a messy âbribery scandalâ.
For the past three years former senior RadioWorks executive Mike Rowley has maintained a dignified silence about what he claims was an attempt by Cunliffe to âbribeâ him for information about the ârelationshipâ between the Exclusive Brethren and Communications Minister Steven Joyce.
Joyce used to own Radioworks and would often come into contact with Rowley.
Rowley says when he approached Cunliffe three years ago about the role ACC allegedly played in the suicide of a rape victim, the Labour leader indicated he would be willing to look into the case â but for a price.
In return for his help, Rowley would have to âdish the dirtâ on Joyceâs relationship with the Exclusive Brethren, the secretive religious group who emerged from obscurity during theÂ 2005 election campaign.
âNo dirt, no help. That was the clear message I got,â said Rowley. Â Read more »
It looks like the same Labour stool pigeon who has been whispering in Matthew Hooton’s ear has also been whispering in Fran O’Sullivan’s.
David Cunliffe is well into repositioning himself as the candidate from Party Centrist â not Party Left Wing.
The naked “feint left” drive which persuaded Labour activists to parachute him into the party’s leadership over the top of more obvious centrist candidates like Shane Jones has been quietly jettisoned.
Even at the party conference there was more of an obligatory nod to the “comrades” than the kind of policies that would have enabled his National opponents to ramp up the fear factor.
Smaller class sizes and electronic learning paraphernalia are not going to get the juices of so-called blue collar workers boiling.
But such policies will appeal to middle classes â irrespective of how the additional 2,000 teachers are paid for.
The Cunliffe move is the upshot of a strategic rethink behind scenes within Labour’s war room.
Rob Salmond gave a speech at the Labour congress and David Cunliffe also used his “research”.
This is Labour’s plan to win the election…are you ready…they are going to pray that National drops 6% on election day from what the polls say.
I’m not kidding…read it.
At my briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, I made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up inÂ David Cunliffe’s speech.
National has dropped six percent each time.
For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim. All I did was find any published poll where the field dates included the day three months before election day1, then compared that to the final election result.
2008 election: Final results compared to simple polling average 90 days prior
Firm Dates Nat Roy Morgan 28 July – 10 Aug 48 Fairfax 6-12 Aug 54 Colmar Brunton 9-14 Aug 51 Average 51.0 Election 8 Nov 44.9 Difference -6.1
2011 election: Final results compared to simple polling average 90 days prior
Firm Dates Nat Digipoll 19-26 Aug 52 Roy Morgan 15-28 Aug 52 Fairfax 25-29 Aug 57.1 Average 53.1 Election 26 Nov 47.3 Difference -5.8
This six point drop in National’s performance often went to parties opposed to National. Famously, in 2011 the big beneficiaries were New Zealand first, who rocketed from around 2.5% in the polls all the way to 6.7% three months later. In 2008 the Greens were significant net beneficiaries of camaign-time changes.
Steven Joyce sums it all up with a simple tweet:
So apparently, after declaring countless crises & running continuous Gotcha campaigns, Labour are the positive ones. #hilarious
â Steven Joyce (@stevenljoyce) July 5, 2014
The labour party really are stretching credibility when they are claiming to be “Vote Positive”.
After years of relentless negativity and gotcha politics they are now trying to put positive spin on it all.
Claire Trevett reports:
Labour has unveiled its campaign slogan for the 2014 election will be “Vote Positive.”
Campaign manager David Talbot has also revealed the party’s social media hashtag with be #forabetterNZ. Â Read more »
John Armstrong muses about the rationale behind Trevor Mallard’s moa media stunt.
Trevor Mallard’s mind-boggling suggestion to harness science to bring the moa back to life will likely end up being much-a-dodo about nothing.
And won’t David Cunliffe be relieved. Trying to breathe life of its own into his faltering leadership, Cunliffe had recently promised that Labour henceforth would be focusing on “the things that matter”.
Mallard may have misunderstood his leader, but it is unlikely that the “matter” Cunliffe was referring to was recovered DNA from moa egg shells.
Along with his front-bench colleagues, Cunliffe had to grin through gritted teeth as they were lampooned mercilessly by Government MPs for much of Parliament’s afternoon hour-long question-time and beyond.
Never one to look a gift moa in the mouth, National’s Steven Joyce kicked off the mass ribbing by manipulating his forearm and hand to resemble the neck and head of a moa and then waved the ensemble at arriving Labour MPs — a pantomime act so polished that Joyce must have devoted all but a few moments of his lunchtime to perfecting it.
The subsequent deluge of puns and wisecracks became progressively more lame from thereon — with one exception. When Winston Peters got to his feet, National backbencher Scott Simpson interjected: “A live moa!”.
Trevor Mallard must have done this on purpose. To cause a day of distraction for Labour, unfortunately it also distracted from anything positive that DAvid Cunliffe had to say about anything and ended up sidetracking the leader.Â Read more »
Yesterday the cartel like BSC got a tickle up after a member of the fish-gang sent through theÂ BSCâs AGM minutes showing theyâre ditching the audit requirement of their accounts.
From that post this letter from one of the BSCâs key membersâ SPOTLESS turns up via the tip-line.
Itâs a shocker and worth a read.
As reported late yesterday, Team New Zealand are at risk of “going under” because they have run out of Â money.
One News reported
Team New Zealand has made a desperate plea to the Government for more money to stop it from going under.
Team New Zealand boss Grant Dalton says they’re only funded until the end of the month and more money is needed to ensure the syndicate’s survival.
“We’ve approached the government for funding. The government said to us go away and line up your money and see how you go,” he said.
Sounds good to me. Â Team New Zealand is a private concern. Â Why does the taxpayer need to prop itÂ up?
Dana Johannsen adds
The clock is ticking for Team New Zealand. Without an immediate cash injection the syndicate are, in the words of boss Grant Dalton, “gone by the end of the month”.
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and so the syndicate today invited the media to their Halsey St base in a thinly veiled attempt to make one last plea to the New Zealand tax-payer to keep the doors of the syndicate open. Read more »