New Zealand politics is a funny thing, everywhere you look there is historical pointers as to what may happen next.
Take David Shearer’s change of chief of staff. In what some are describing as a “back to the future” moment, Fran Mold has replaced Alastair Cameron.
What does history tell us?
Well let’s look at the National party.
After the 2002 election debacle Bill English’s chief of staff was Sue Foley. She was replaced by Richard Long ultimately.
Shortly after that Don Brash announced he was taking out Bill English, who famously used David Farrar to do his numbers. David’s counting was a bit off, and Don Brash rolled Bill English.
Richard Long remained Brash’s chief of staff until replaced by Wayne Eagleson. Shortly after that John Key toppled Don Brash. Wayne Eagleson is still John Key’s chief of staff.
So what does this mean for Labour? Well we can discount the role of Stuart Nash as chief of staff, it was too short and after numerous fights with Fran Mold he left in disgust. Alistair Cameron was the replacement and he lasted a year. Now Fran Mold is back, but whose chief of staff is she?
It would seem that a change of chief of staff signals a change of leadership. We watch and wait with interest.