Te Atatu

Could Chris Carter win a by election as an Independent? Probably.

The logic is pretty simple. If Labour put up a candidate, Chris stands, and National’s vote stays where it was in 2008, National would win. So Labour would not run a candidate, as National did not against the un-flushable grogan, Winston Raymond Peters, 65, Pensioner of no fixed abode, in 1993 in Tauranga.

Te Atatu is definitely in play now, either immediately in a by-election or next year in the general election. In 2008 the party vote in Te Atatu was:

Labour 13,171
National 13,183

That Chris Carter won handily with a greater vote than Labour itself shows how effective as a local MP he is compared with the tide running out on Labour. He is now in the same position as Taito Philip Field was when he openly declared war against the party. If Labour chucks him out, remember corruption is ok, but disloyalty gets you chucked out, then Labour has more than a couple of problems.

1. They need to select a new candidate, Phil Twyford is the obvious choice, but then again he has had 4 cracks already and a fifth would be the death knell for him. He is disliked by the union faction though and would struggle to gain selection.
2. Peter Kaiser, Chris Carter’s partner is also the chair of the LEC. This is problematic in trying to pick a new candidate, because the electorate organisation is solidly behind Chris Carter and if they stay put then Head Office faces an embarrassment in over-riding the democratically elected LEC.
3. If Twyford, by a minor miracle did end up winning a by-election then Labour has the Tizard effect come into play again.
4. Chris Carter will not be alone. That he got sprung and blew the coup before they all lined up behind Cunliffe is problematic. But you can be sure that Carter’s thoughts are not alone. Phil Goff is only leader today because the leaked letter was supposed to run a few days in the press in order to de-stabilise, all ready for caucus on Tuesday when the knife would have gone in. Goff has only postponed that. It is inevitable that he will be knifed, it is now only a matter of when.

National too has problems. If I was Chris Carter contemplating sticking it up Labour then I would resign right now and force a by-election. Tau Henare can’t beat Chris Carter and right now he is the only person named for Te Atatu. If National decided on selecting another candidate then time starts expiring pretty quickly in sourcing a quality candidate who could take on Chris Carter in Te Atatu. If National ran Tau Henare then Chris Carter would be returned as an independent easily defeating anyone Labour cares to put up.

Politics just got very, very interesting.

As for Chris Carter, I extend to him a free post, unedited, on whatever her would like to say, in order to get his story across without spin. Take this offer as part of my mea culpa for my previous error over the phone bills affair. I’d love to present his story un-filtered by the constraints of the MSM formats.

Gerry Brownlee: Where's Tuku's diary?

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: Tuku's diary?

Hon Tau Henare: That's the one.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: When is Tuku going to pay his legal bills? The member's brother-in-law has $50,000 worth of legal bills. I am being diverted, Madam Speaker, and I will stop from being diverted.

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): Thank you, Mr Mallard.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: Madam Speaker-

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): Mr Speaker.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: It is important that we remember that this Government has been putting more investment into infrastructure than any other Government has in the past. I accept that in the area of electricity infrastructure we progressed at a faster rate than National, but not nearly fast enough, and that is the case here.

I do not know whether there is a systemic problem as far as Auckland's electricity infrastructure is concerned. I know that there is in relation to the routes into Auckland-there is no doubt about that. I am not an expert and I do not know whether there is a systemic problem in Auckland. If there is, it will be fixed.

Hon Members: When?

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: It will be fixed, depending on its size, as soon as possible and with the investment that is necessary. This Government has made it clear to Transpower that the Government's dividend requirements do not override the important capital expenditure that it is doing.

However, one point that should be made is that this is the first grid-related blackout in Auckland since 1998. It was not a 35-day blackout of the sort that occurred then. It does not mean that we have a Third World power system. I just ask people to work-

Hon Dr Nick Smith: That's what Keith Turner said.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: That is what who said? I think that until the member gets his voice back he had better loosen something off or just settle down somewhat. Madam Speaker-

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): Mr Speaker.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: Well, actually, Madam Speaker. You are acting for her. Madam Speaker-

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): The member will please desist and continue with his speech.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: Madam Speaker-

Hon Dr Nick Smith: I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. You just asked the Minister to desist from referring to you as "Madam Speaker". That is a perfectly reasonable request, given that you are a bloke. Immediately the Minister got to his feet he again referred to you as "Madam Speaker". I think you should call this Minister, who has been doing everything he can to avoid debating the issue, back to the point and to comply with your ruling.

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): It was in the heat of the moment, and I understand where the member is coming from. I ask the Minister to desist and to continue with the debate in the proper manner. Thank you.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: Mr Acting Deputy Assistant Speaker-is that right? Mr Speaker-

Rodney Hide: I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. I take grave exception to that Minister's insult to the Speaker. You are the Speaker while in that Chair, Mr Assistant Speaker, and I think that insult is a grave reflection on this entire House. I believe that you would have the support of the entire House to demand that Trevor Mallard withdraw and apologise to you-and, indeed, to the entire House-unreservedly.

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): I thank the member. I inform Mr Mallard that when I am in the Chair I am the Speaker. I would like him to look at Standing Order 28. I expect him to stop trifling with the Chair and to refer to me by my correct title.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: Mr Deputy Speaker-

Rodney Hide: I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker-

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): No, I thank the member. Mr Mallard-

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: I am sorry-Mr Assistant Speaker. I will get it-

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): Will the member please be seated. I suggest to him that while I am on my feet he might like to look at Standing Order 28. For his benefit I will read out the relevant paragraph: "(2) An Assistant Speaker performs the duties and exercises the authority of the Speaker while presiding over the House." That means that when anyone is sitting in this Chair, whether the Deputy Speaker or the Assistant Speaker, that person is referred to as "the Speaker". I would expect a member with the long standing of that member, who has been a Minister for some considerable time, to know better and to show some leadership and courtesy. Thank you.

Rodney Hide: I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker-

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): I say to the member that I have dealt with the issue.

Rodney Hide: I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. I do not think you understand the point I was trying to make. We have a situation where a senior Minister of this Government has attempted to insult and intimidate the Speaker. That is an attack on the entire House. I say to you that I take grave exception to that. I told you-and I do not think there was a murmur of dissent-that we expect you to ask Mr Mallard to withdraw and apologise to the entire House for his behaviour here this afternoon.

The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (H V Ross Robertson): I say to the member that I was not intimidated. I have dealt with the issue, and members cannot reopen it.

Hon TREVOR MALLARD: This Government is-[Interruption] No, I am making it absolutely clear to members opposite that I do not share their views on some matters. Madam Speaker-

Hon Tau Henare: Gutless!