Scott Armstrong vs. Al Gore

Scott Armstrong is putting his money where his mouth is. He has bet Al Gore $10,000 that he is wrong about AGW. I pick the professor, he is after all the worlds foremost expert in forecasting. His best line in analysing climate change models is "We've been unable to find any scientific forecast, and what we have are forecasts by scientists,". Classic stuff, the understated slap in the face.

His open letter to Al Gore is below;

[quote]June 19, 2007

Honorable Albert Gore

2100 West End Avenue

Suite 620

Nashville, TN 37203 

Fax: 615-327-2227

Dear Mr. Gore,

A “Global Warming Challenge ” is attached. I think the challenge serves our mutual interest in developing better public policy. The terms of the challenge can be easily changed upon mutual agreement.

The primary objective is to improve the application of scientific methods in forecasting climate change and, thus, to use better forecasting methods. In addition, it may provide funding for one of our charities.

The objectives are attainable no matter which of us would “win” the challenge. The fact that we would be joining together in this challenge should draw the attention of scientists to the need for using the best forecasting methods and conducting proper validation tests.

Might you be able to respond by the time of my International Symposium on Forecasting talk on the morning of Wednesday June 27? This could be something as simple as “accept,” “decline,” or “contemplating.” Or it could be a longer response. You, or one of your representatives would be welcome, of course, to be a guest at this conference.

I believe that you already know the chairperson, Kajal Lahiri, from his days in Arlington when your sons played on the same soccer team. If you can attend, Kajal will make provisions for you to respond to this challenge. The conference runs from Monday through mid-day Wednesday.

Would you be interested in receiving a copy of my Principles of Forecasting book? I will be happy to send you a copy if you tell me what address to use.


J. Scott Armstrong

Professor of Marketing

The Wharton School

University of Pennsylvania

Philadelphia, PA 19104

armstrong at wharton dot upenn dot edu[/quote]



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