Latest Roy Morgan results

Yet another rogue poll from March 2007 when the phenomenon of rogue polls start becoming apparent. The latest rogue poll is from Roy Morgan.

National Party 53.5% (up 2%)
Maori Party 3.5% (up 1.5%)
ACT NZ 1.5% (down 1%)

Labour Party 30.5% (down 2.5%) slip sliding away
Greens 7% (up 0.5%)
NZ First 2.5% (unchanged)
and Others 1.5% (up 0.5%).

Labour really has a dilemma, internecine and public warfare has broken out in Labour’s ranks. Grant Robertson (someone I’d be keeping a weather eye on) and the President of Party have both spoken out about Goff’s Orewa speech he Witi’d off Don Brash. If Goff has to publicly play down dissent then the dissent is loud inside the party.

Fran O’Sullivan talks glowingly about Shane Jones but is the man really electable?

The problem is he has never proved anyone will vote for him.

John Carter v Shane Jones         9275 votes margin for Carter in 2005
John Carter v Shane Jones II      10054 votes margin for Carter in 2008

Arguably it is a bit unfair comparing anyone to John Carter as he is so good he would probably hold Northland from beyond the grave. But even so, Jones has yet to show he is a contender because he can’t actually get people to vote for him in Northland, so probably can’t get the Labour caucus to believe he can get all New Zealanders to vote for him.

The big questions for Jones are; Does he try for a safe Labour seat in the next election? Does he get trounced in Northland? or Does he put his balls on the block and go up against Hone Harawira and really get a kicking?

Goff and Labour really do have a problem. People are angry about the ETS and pandering to Maori by John Key as well as the do nothing approach so far but the reality is they also don’t want to vote Labour just yet.


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  • Doug

    Poor old Phil has painted himself into a corner, will he help National on the Seabed regulations. Key is putting pressure on Fool Goff, will Goff piss off the Maoris or bite the bullet and flip-flop again. Andrew Little is not helping just adding to the confusion. Can see Labour at 20% or lower.

  • anon

    Act on 1.5%? Good job. Its getting tiresome listening to all their bitching and whining. These dicks who go on about "Neville Key" have no fucking idea that to make change last, you have to stay in power. They have learnt nothing from the Douglas/Richardson era when too fast a change just fucked things up and the people threw the govt OUT.
    Change , yes, but changes will only stick if you take ALL the people with you.
    Oh and Key has no choice on Climate. Kyoto was signed years ago and we were stuck in it then. As much as I agree AGW is bullshit, NZ has to honour its international treatys.

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  • John Carter is off to the Cook Islands at the next election. Irrespective of that though is the fact that Jones is a trough pig and many of us in Northland will dedicate ourselves to ensuring every voter in the electorate is reminded of this daily if there is a sniff of him getting in.

    • Someone should start cataloging his slum rentals with photos

  • Lucy

    Lets look at polls shall we?

    If you look at the 'official polls' the status quo is what the people want. However if you take notice of the comments section of most 'open' publications you will find something quite different.

    A small but pertinent example of 'spin' can be seen in Kiwilog now.

    Anyone who reads Whale knows that his recent blogs have concentrated on the fact that the msm is not covering climategate. However as far as Kiwiblog is concerned Whales main item of interest is:-
    "December 7th, 2009 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar
    1.Alf Grumble MP wonders why the Greens are attacking John Carter for doing his job
    2.Whale Oil looks at the Christchurch Mayoralty"
    Tell me Whale is your main interest the Christchurch Mayoralty?

    • Nope

      I wrote a pithy piece about Christchurch to annot Lord Burns and Creepy Cosgrove and for good measure Lianne Dalziel knowing that I piss them off. That's it.

      The fraud that is Climategate is getting me very angry. There will be a reckoning out of this and the LSM will suffer.

  • Snitch

    That's pretty scientific Lucy – the same person commenting 100 times on the Herald website under a different name hoping to sway public opinion.

    Cuckoo, Cuckoo.

  • John Boy

    I'm amazed. Labour's state now indicates how good a control freak Helen was and what a useless leader she was. Key is different but still no leader.
    One party is less completely disfunctional than another so its better. The problem is that its still not good enough, no where good enough. I can respect integrity even though I may not like policy but we just seem to have let all decency and accountability slip away. Its like a choice of a cat shit or dog shit sandwich – liking cats won't make it tasty but the public & party faithful will eat whatever crap is dished up and say thanks. How far we have fallen to put up with this nonsense in a so called democracy.

  • mediatart

    Forget the last Morgan poll results ? Yes the one with the national decline. never mind you can pick the upswing next month. So I imagine the next decline will be missed as well. As it happens National drops over the holidays season based on previous experience but you wont read about it here

  • Chris R

    Mediatart: Please be readily assured that I'll be looking for a Nat's decline this summer, but like AGW it won't be happening! Ooops I haven't offended your delicate sensitivities have I? (BTW, the last Poll was reported here, I'm sure. Right Whale?)

  • william

    I hope Shane Jones does get annointed as the Labour One….. I believe he will be a real turnoff to most NZers as to me he comes across as extremely arrogant and Kiwis hate that. He is someone that seems to always play the man (or woman), rather than the ball and I believe we saw in the most recent election that that style of politics goes down like a cup of cold sick.