Turning a Chicken Run into a victory in 2011

I’ve thought a bit more about The Labour Party Chicken Run. It seems too that other commentators have also and been reading this blog. The MSM is yet to catch onto to these thoughts. Matthew Hooton thinks Phil Goff and Andrew Little need to do a bit of backroom manipulation to orchestrate not three but FOUR by-elections and by winning all four easily there by strengthen Goff’s leadership and stave off the now apparent challenge from David Cunliffe.

I say apparent leadership challenge because firstly Chris Carter alluded to it and now Labour’s own tame churnalist Chris Trotter is endorsing openly the aspirations of David Cunliffe. Let’s put Chris Trotter’s endorsement of David Cunliffe aside for a moment and look at a SWAT analysis if you like of having four contemporaneous by-elections.

Ok the four by-elections should be:

Manurewa – predicated on George Hawkins winning his Local board election. This should happen easily. George Hawkins is well liked in Manurewa.

Te Atatu – Chris Carter needs to go. He needs to go for Phil’s sake and he needs to go for Labour’s sake. Andrew Little and Phil Goff need to agree to drop the disciplinary charges, and beg Helen to find him a cosy little Aids Ambassador’s trough or similar for him to continue his troughing ways. He has said he isn’t go to stand at the next election anyway so best if he moves along.

Mana – Winnie Laban has done the right thing, found a better trough to roll in, and one created specially for her.

Wigram – yes, I mention Wigram, because even though Jim Anderton is nearly dead his continued troughing with four jobs will only hurt Labour. Again Andrew Little’s superior negotiation skills should be able to encourage Jim Anderton to shuffle off so Labour can have their 4 by-elections.

So why do I say Labour should go for four contemporaneous by-elections, well because they are broke, behind in the polls and need a lift. They can win all of those four electorates easily. So winning or potentially losing shouldn’t enter their thought processes. Money is an issue and Labour is in desperate need of it. On the face of it they can’t really afford to fight four by-elections but then as an astute reader pointed out yesterday, by-elections actually raise money for the party. Mt Albert turned a profit and a capable new MP for Labour. Lastly Phil Goff and Labour need some wins on the board. Everything they have done so far has only enabled John Key’s government to extend their lead in the polls.  Nothing looks like winning more than winning. Having four by-elections and winning all four easily would make Phil Goff and Labour look like winners and make next years general election anyone’s for the taking. It would also crush Cunliffe’s dream like tank rolling over a tulip.

This is very important as Cunliffe rolls out his tame churnalists to support him. He is Labour’s Kevin Rudd. No one likes him, he is pompous and an arse. Phil Goff can put him down like a lame dog by grasping the nettle and pushing for four by-elections. Let’s hear no more talk of miracles from Labour along the lines of the Kevin Rudd implosion. That simply isn’t believable of John Key. This plan as outlined above however is reasonable, real, and achievable with only a little bit backroom negotiation and subterfuge.

Having the four by-elections contemporaneously even on the same days just make logistics even easier.


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