Fisking silly polls

The Sunday Star Times has taken to using new pollster Horizon regularly. So far it has been with less than honest results.

Horizon’s main problem is their methodology, something that either the Sunday Star Times is willfully ignoring or deliberately encouraging in order to get results that suit them.

Their methodology is certainly exposed when a new blogger, Whowouddathort, shows just how out of step they are.

Rogue poll from Horizon compared with reputable polls

The Sunday Star Times does their credibility no amount of good when they descrie the flawed poll as “a major new poll”.

In the US there was this sort of carry on last year where Rasmussen was so far out that it ruined any meta poll of polls. Rasmussen was eventually taken out for a normal trend line, and compared with the normal, destroying their reputation in the meantime.

…polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.

There isn’t a regular poll, even Labour’s own pollster UMR Research,  in the country that has National even remotely close to 40% and certainly not a single pollster except for dodgy Horizon that has Winston Peters corrupt NZ First above 3 %. On that basis alone we can conclude that Horizon has a dodgy methodology and when we add their woefully poor history they can safely be discounted as no better than an online survey company.

Given Horizon’s to produce wildly different polls with no apparent obvious causality one must assume that they are on the fast track to becoming as maligned as Rasmussen is now.

The Sunday Star Times is likewise destroying its remaining, admittedly shallow, reputation as a reliable news source by publishing such rubbish.


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  • mattyman

    Their kidding themselves if they think that a political party thats been out of parliament, that has a aging and dwindling support base can suddenly become the third most popular political party. If NZF can get 3.5% at the next election, they should be happy.

  • mediatart

    A week is a long time in politics. Guess who is suddenly so nervous. Hubris allways gets the nats in the end. After every election when they win massively the elctorate turns on them next time around.
    If NZ First is nuts , think of the National party who is running labour lite compared to what its die hard supporters want and then look at ist support parties ACT, betterknown as CLOWNS and the separatist Maori Elite Party
    Que sera

  • paulus12

    I wish I knew what Media Tart was talking about – duh!!!

  • chiefsfan73

    I doubt it paulus12. To know what mediatart is talking about, I would suggest you have to think like her. If you starved your brain of oxygen to that extent, it is unlikely you would recover normal brain function. On second thought, it could be all upside, as you too can live in cloud cookoo land.

  • mediatart

    yes it was a bit disjointed just take the first and last sentence