iPredict launches Botany contracts

from iPredict

Who will be National’s candidate for Botany?

New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, will this morning launch a bundle of binary contracts asking who will be selected on Thursday 27 January as the National Party’s candidate for the Botany by-election, to be held on Saturday 5 March.  Trading will begin at 10.30 am today (NZT).

The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said six contracts would be launched, for Maggie Barry, Aaron Bhatnagar, Darron Gedge, Jami-lee Ross, Edward Saafi and “Other” to be selected.  Contracts will pay $1 if the person is selected and $0 if they are not.  The value of the six contracts should sum to $1 at all times and the price of each one will indicate the market’s view of the probability of that person being appointed.  That is, if a contract trades at 25c, that person has a 25% probability of winning the nomination.

Mr Burgess said that with Botany being regarded as a safe National seat, the contracts would indicate who was likely to become MP for the electorate, which they may have an opportunity to hold for a long period.

iPredict will also launch a bundle of three contracts asking who would win the by-election – the National candidate, the Labour candidate or another candidate.  Trading in those contracts will also begin at 10.30 am.

iPredict’s binary contracts have a 90% success rate in accurately predicting future events.  The company is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities Commission.  Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz


Do you want:

  • Ad-free access?
  • Access to our very popular daily crossword?
  • Access to daily sudoku?
  • Access to Incite Politics magazine articles?
  • Access to podcasts?
  • Access to political polls?

Our subscribers’ financial support is the reason why we have been able to offer our latest service; Audio blogs. 

Click Here  to support us and watch the number of services grow.

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

38%