What Goff's bad poll numbers mean

If Phil Goff can’t do anything to impove the poll numbers for Labour he won’t be able to form a government after the election. He will also reduce the size of the Labour Caucus. This starts to become problematic for Phil when caucus members start wondering if they will have a job after an election, or whether they would be better off replacing Goff so they keep their jobs.

There are two effects a bad election result has on caucus numbers. Obviously there are less MPs. This is bad for Goff. What is even worse is he runs the risk of losing electorate seats, meaning an even more vicious fight for list positions as MPs in marginal seats jockey for a safe list position. Being a scum list MP is far better than being a former MP, so watch the brutal multisided civil war come list ranking time. There will be blood, treachery and betrayal as long time troughers try to retain their place at the trough.

Currently Labour have 43 MPs. This neat little table tells us how many they will lose as their polls fall further.

34% means 41 MPs
33% means 40 MPs
32% means 38 MPs
31% means 37 MPs
30% means 36 MPs
29% means 35 MPs
28% means 34 MPs
27% means 32 MPs
26% means 31 MPs
25% means 30 MPs

Note there will probably be between one and two more than the exact percentage as mickey mouse parties votes won’t count. Last time Labour got 2 more MPs than they would have if there hadn’t been wasted votes going to no hoper parties like New Zealand First and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.

At Roy Morgans current 29% the Labour Caucus will be reduced to 35 members, more likely 36 or 37. That is a fall of between six and eight MPs, so expect that there will be a lot of MPs looking closely at their peers wondering how to knife them – or knife the leader to get the polls back up to 34%. The lower the number goes the more MPs start looking for someone anyone who will save their place at the trough.

Tomorrow I’ll post about the implications to marginal electorate seats.

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