Who in the Labour will miss out?

Over the weekend this blog written about the implications of Phil Goff’s terrible poll ratings, and today is a chance to try to work out who is going to be back in and who is going to miss out.

So far there are only three known retirees, Pete Hodgson, George Hawkins and Lynn Pillay. Only Lynn is a list MP.

Those in safe red seats who can enjoy the battle for list positions are:

Dalziel, Lianne   Christchurch East
David Clark   Dunedin North
Curran, Clare   Dunedin South
Mahuta, Nanaia   Hauraki-Waikato
Mallard, Trevor   Hutt South
Horomia, Parekura   Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Sio, Su’a William   Mangere
Robertson, Ross   Manukau East
Louisa Wall   Manurewa
Shearer, David   Mt Albert
Goff, Phil   Mt Roskill
Cunliffe, David   New Lynn
Dyson, Ruth   Port Hills
King, Annette   Rongotai
Cosgrove, Clayton   Waimakariri
Robertson, Grant   Wellington Central
Phil Tywford   Te Atatu
Megan Woods   Wigram

Those who may make it back in if they can hold their seats are in the swing seats that are under real threat just because of poll numbers. If the gap stays the same, these MPs need a list place to get back in.

Running Tally 18

Brendan Burns, Christchurch Central: Lord Burns of Marlborough has done little to endear himself to the people of Christchurch Central.
Kris Faafoi, Mana: Expected loss as Hekia Parata is going to build on her by-election strength.
Ian Lees-Galloway, Palmerston North: Provincial New Zealand do not like people that cheat on their wives.
Chris Hipkins, Rimutaka: Hasn’t done enough to counter the swing to National.

These guys may lose their seats but are likely to make it back in on the list as they are not as bad as some of the other list MPs.

Running Tally 22

Scum List MPs who will make it back in:

Jacinda Ardern:  Bright young thing in the Labour Party, competent and well liked. will make it back in easily. This blogger even likes her and she is thoroughly pink.
Charles Chauvel: Could well win Ohariu. If he doesn’t he is one of Labours most able so will definitely be there.
Kelvin Davis: Competent Maori in a caucus lacking them.
Darren Hughes  Thoroughly embedded in caucus and safe.
Shane Jones: Competent Maori who needs to learn how to use the internet for pornography.|
David Parker: Representing a key minority in the Labour Party, the straight white male.
Mita Ririnui: Will make it back in on the quota. Labour is always has a quota.
Maryan Street:  Hard to like but extremely able if ability is measured by desire to spend other peoples money and bankrupt the country.

Running Tally 30

Guaranteed a place on the List but not currently in Parliament

Andrew Little:  Union muscle will get him through. May win New Plymouth confirming him as Labours next leader.

Running Tally 31

Scum List MPs who will struggle to make it back in

Barker, Rick:  Well past his used by date
Beaumont, Carol:  Good Union Credentials but been a big disappointment. Not even her supporters on the left believe she can win Maungakiekie from Sam Lotu-Iiga
Chadwick, Steve:  Expired long ago, has ben kept ont he run in Rotorua by Todd McClay.
Choudhary, Ashraf :  MIA for entire term. No show. He did do a blog post the other day though
Fenton, Darien:   Parliamentary career remarkable for under achievement where under achievement is too often overlooked.
Huo, Raymond:  Who? Oh!
Mackey, Moana:   Woefully inept and offering little to the modern Labour Party, couldn’t even beat Anne Tolley.
Moroney, Sue:   Not sure why anyone would want her in parliament in the first place. Is the sour faced tart that sits behind what’s his name.
Nash, Stuart:  Offside with the sisterhood due to persistent and inveterate rooting.
O’Connor, Damien:   Nearly got kicked out last time. Might win West Coast though.
Prasad, Rajen:  Likely to get run over by factional interests.
Sepuloni, Carmel:   Deeply unpleasant woman with high regard for her own ability. This is regard is not shared by many.

These scum list MPs are scrapping over five places. That’s if Phil can hold Labour at 29%, and if there are no new list MPs.

Will there be any other new list MPs?

This question will be perplexing many aspiring Labour MPs. They need a safe list position but probably won’t get one. This is bad for Labour as they need to continue to rejuvenate or they are in big trouble. People like Jordan Carter, Kate Sutton, Leila Boyle, Chrissie Williams and James Caygill would add a lot to the Labour caucus, and there must be some competent left wingers working away behind the scenes that would be better than the current lot.

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