A vote for?

Following on from yesterdays post, a reader pointed out through the tip line John Key needs to be very careful about talking up the Maori Party.

The same logic that was used in 2008 “A vote for Winston Peters is a vote for Helen Clark” could be used on John Key. “A vote for National is a vote for a coalition with the Maori Party”.

National desperately need some polling to tell them what people think of this line or they could lose support rapidly to ACT.


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  • adolffiinkensein

    Lose support to Bract? In your dreams.

  • paranormal

    Sorry Adolf, just so you don’t make too big a fool of yourself, it’s time to explain how these poll thingy’s work. At present voters have actually got a lot on their collective minds other than an election at the end of the year. Unlike political groupies like yourself they really don’t care. They see John Key is Prime Minister at the moment and that’s what the polls are reflecting.

    What will happen – and has always happened, is that once the election campaign starts Nationals ‘support’ will erode to the minor parties as election issues are teased out. For National to win over 50% of the vote will be the most amazing thing in over 50 years of MMP. Remember that’s why the Allies gave MMP to Germany to ensure no one leader could ever again dominate.

    As in every other year the minor parties – including Act has increased during the campaign and on polling day. It’s just how much of an increase they acheive that is in question. For Act to have doubled it’s support in the weekend polls – before any campaigning or messaging has begun, bodes well for Act, and should have National very worried.

    Perhaps that explains your one man anti Act campaign?

  • abjv

    Let’s assume for a moment that Labour is polling low enough to make them irrelevant. Let’s assume Labour aren’t going to win. Let’s assume a vote for them is a vote for an opposition not discernably different from what is there today; maybe slightly more union influence but mostly the same faces as there now. This is why the public “has hung up the phone” on Phil’s message. Voters from the left have alternatives of staying away, or trying to turn the Greens into an opposition. Anywhere in the top 10 to 12 on the Green list looks good for getting elected.

    Everyone else has to work out what sort of National government they want. One view is to vote Act to give the Government more spine (but less humanity). One view is to vote National so they don’t absolutely need Act or Maori. One view is to vote Maori as if you ignore Hone they actually haven’t been that bad and they are an alternative to Act’s view of the world. Peter Dunne’s two followers would have their own view.

    “A vote for National is a vote for a coali­tion with the Maori Party” and “A vote for National is a vote for a coali­tion with ACT” are both countered by “give National enough votes and they don’t need them” which given present polling (and assuming some erosion during the campaign), they’re not that far off.

  • ltchop

    National des­per­ately need some polling to tell them what peo­ple think of this line or they could lose sup­port rapidly to ACT.

    In your dreams Wa’il – B1 and B2 are a couple of old men dreaming of yesteryear – when they were young and the world swooned at their feet – no longer – no amount of Grecian 2000 or lashings of misty eyed media stories will convince the vast majority of Kiwis that these two are nothing but a couple of old banana in saggy stripy pajamas ! Don’t slip on the peel on the way out !

  • gazzaw

    I have to agree with Itchop. Hell, I’m not far short of Brash in years and I see old men, maybe bright old men, but old men all the same. Banksie hasn’t a prayer in Epsom if JK puts up Bhatnagar for National. Remmers isnt just quarter acres in Vicky Ave any more. Check out the demographics.