Latest Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and yet again it is a rogue, the 476th in a long string of rogue polls. Winston First is creeping up, ACT remains unchanged so probably still a bit too early for the flow through from their leadership change.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for Prime Minister John Key’s National-led Government is unchanged at 56%. Support for Key’s National Party is 52.5% (up 1.5%), the Maori Party 2% (down 1.5%), ACT NZ 1% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged). Support for Opposition Parties is at 44% – Labour Party 31% (down 1%), Greens 7.5%, (down 0.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 1.5%), Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged). If a National Election were held today the National Party would easily be returned to Government. The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen 2 points to 119 with 53.5% (unchanged) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34.5% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’Full New Zealand Voting Results

 


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  • monty

    Must be rogue – Labour cannot be over 30%

  • jabba

    bloody rogues

  • Mr Blobby

    With so many rogue polls you wonder why they bother polling at all. The margin for error should probably be 35% not 3.5%

  • thor42

    These polls will be interesting when the Moaner Party gets going. They’re bound to snag a few Labour voters looking for another losers’ party to support.

  • Doug

    Labour are less popular now than at the last Election, that can’t be true can it. Goes to prove Goff is less popular than Clark.

  • alwyn

    This poll is obviously a rogue. I watched Phil Goff on Willie Jackson’s Soundbites last week and Phil announced that Labour were polling “in the high 30’s”. We all know that Phil would never try to mislead us don’t we, so clearly the figures published in this poll, like all the other ones lately, are false.
    Of course Labour may have been polling only people who voted for them in 2008. They may have managed to keep the votes of 38-39 percent of that group I suppose.

  • stevewrathall

    “Labour are less pop­u­lar now than at the last Elec­tion”
    Yes, they now can’t steal truckloads of taxpayers money and change the law afterwards.

  • deputy

    Hard to believe the spiv in the pin strip suit is up to 4.5. Must be a real rogue poll.

  • lcmortensen

    Polls do have a margin of error because we’re only surveying around 900 people compared to 2.4 million in a general election. The best rule of thumb for margin of error is one divided by the square root of the number of responses (1/sqrt(900) = 1/30 = 3.33%). Make that +/-3.5%, and Labour in real life is somewhere between 28.5 and 34.5 percent, and National between 49 and 56 percent. Of course, the margin of error is smaller as you move further from 50% (at 5%/95%, the error is 1.4%).
    Then there is selection bias.

    What is more concerning is the government confidence rating – second lowest since 2008 and on the decline. If they don’t fix that soon, come 26 November, they may find themselves on the other side of the house.

  • lordmontrose

    New Zealand First 4.5%, and Winston has scarcely said a thing for a couple of years.
    Wait till he gets started!

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