A Poll Gap of 26% means Trevor is R***ed

Back on July 18, just a bit over a week ago I wrote that a poll gap of 26% would see Labour’s crippled campaign manager tipped out of Hutt South.

In Hutt South, where Labour’s crip­pled cam­paign man­ager has a major­ity of 4086 over for­mer Welling­ton Rugby Cap­tain Paul Quinn. This is with a 11% gap in the polls in 2008. In 2011 a 26% gap means that Paul can expect to win 350 votes per 1% change, so a 15% change means a swing of 5250 votes to Paul, or a nom­i­nal major­ity of 1164.

Labour will need to divert resources away from the mar­ginal seat of Rimu­taka where it is defend­ing Chris Hip­kins nar­row major­ity to Hutt South to save Trevor. Bad luck for Chippy who won’t make it back in on the list, and really bad for Labour who have over­loaded Mal­lard with the Cam­paign Man­agers role, as well as him being busy fight­ing an asym­met­ri­cal war he can­not win against a blog­ger who can­not lose. Duck is pretty busy any­way, with­out need­ing to have to cam­paign in his seat against a fiercely com­pet­i­tive opponent.

With the latest Fairfax poll delivering a smack to the head of Labour, the logic still stands and it will be bye, bye Duckie come November 26.

Too stupid to steal underpants

 


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  • thor42

    I think it’s GREAT that “The Duck” is Liarbore’s campaign manager.
    They could really do with a hard-arsed pro in that role. With an amateur like The Duck, it’ll be fun, fun, fun……
    There’s bound to be lots of mudslinging. Boring, unoriginal and ineffective.
    There’s also bound to be almost no *positive* Liarbore policy. The main reason for that is that most positive policies have to be paid for, and Liarbore has no room to move there. Not unless they bite the bullet and put up a policy of time-limiting benefits and scrapping Working for Families. Not much chance of that – even the Nats don’t have the balls for that.

40%