Labour voters switching to National

Vernon Small must have had a few sleepless nights. No wonder too that Labour MPs have been very quiet. The lates Fairfax poll results are the very last nails in Labour’s coffin.

Vernon Small has crunched the numbers, and it doesn’t look good for Labour:

A close examination of the numbers shows that among voters who have cited a party preference, 92 per cent of those who ticked National last time are still backing a John Key-led party.

By contrast, Labour has managed to hang on to only 79 per cent of its supporters, with 11 per cent switching to National – against just 5 per cent of National voters who have crossed to Phil Goff’s camp.

Labour has also shed 5 per cent of its voters from 2008 to the Greens, but less than one per cent of National’s 2008 vote base has turned Green.

In fact, no other party has managed to lure away more than 1 per cent of National’s voters in 2008.



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  • michaels

    I have a theory why National are doing so well.
    Almost every time Labour talk about National, vile drivel fall out of their mouths.
    National have been very well controlled this term and have kept their mouths shut.

    In saying that, I guess Labour speak just like most of their voters do.

  • kevin

    I guess it is about credibilty, the Nats aren’t perfect, but… labour are just a pack of bluffing bullsh*tters. Look at goffs recent history ffs. What’s with this wikipedia crap? Looks more like entrapment to me. The other senior labour members aren’t much better. Words fail me.

  • titanuranus

    Credit where credit is due, Goofs capacity for self-delusion is truly impressive,

  • thor42

    A good analysis by Small!
    Yep – as far as voters are concerned, “the phone is still off the hook” when it comes to Liarbore.
    They are sooooo **negative**. That, and their ancient old “borrow, tax and spend” cough “policy” cough – a big turn-off for voters.
    I’m the first to say that the Nats aren’t perfect, but they are “good enough”, and that seems to be the view of a very large number of voters. “Good enough” is better than “lousy Liarbore”.