What a 26% Gap Means

The simple answer is Labour are rooted, but let’s look at the less prosaic details of seats in play. As posted before the marginal seats for Labour suddenly become very marginal but it is worth reviewing these given the new numbers.

2008        National had a 11% margin over Labour
2011        National has a 26% margin over Labour in the latest poll

1% means roughly 350 votes.

15% change in the polls means  a 5250 swing to National.

This starts causing Labour serious problems, because it is not just the nominally marginal seats that are in play, it is actually the safe red seats held by senior MPs like Phil Goff, Trevor Mallard and David Cunliffe.

Rank Seat Labour MP National Candidate National EV Labour Ev Margin
1 Waimakariri COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) 15,970 16,360 -390
2 Rimutaka HIPKINS, Christopher John (LAB) WHITESIDE, Richard (NAT) 12,982 13,735 -753
3 Christchurch Central BURNS, Brendon (LAB) WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) 13,143 14,078 -935
4 Palmerston North LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain (LAB) PLIMMER, Malcolm (NAT) 14,860 15,977 -1,117
5 Öhariu DUNNE, Peter Francis (UFNZ) CHAUVEL, Charles (LAB) 10,009 11,297 -1,288
6 Mana FAAFOI, Kris PARATA, Hekia (NAT) 9,574 10,980 -1,406
7 Wellington Central ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB) FRANKS, Stephen (NAT) 15,142 17,046 -1,904
8 Port Hills DYSON, Ruth (LAB) HEFFERNAN, Terry (NAT) 13,382 16,834 -3,452
9 New Lynn CUNLIFFE, David (LAB) GROSER, Tim (NAT) 13,306 17,331 -4,025
10 Hutt South MALLARD, Trevor (LAB) QUINN, Paul (NAT) 12,604 16,690 -4,086
11 Te Atatü CARTER, Chris (LAB) HENARE, Tau (NAT) 11,161 16,459 -5,298
12 Christchurch East DALZIEL, Lianne (LAB) GILMORE, Aaron (NAT) 12,204 17,969 -5,765
13 Mt Roskill GOFF, Phil (LAB) BLUE, Jackie (NAT) 12,197 18,615 -6,418
14 Dunedin South CURRAN, Clare (LAB) POWELL, Conway (NAT) 12,750 19,199 -6,449
15 Manurewa HAWKINS, George (LAB) CALDER, Cam (NAT) 6,785 13,511 -6,726
16 Dunedin North HODGSON, Pete (LAB) WOODHOUSE, Michael (NAT) 9,972 17,127 -7,155
17 Rongotai KING, Annette (LAB) FINLAYSON, Christopher (NAT) 10,594 19,614 -9,020
18 Mängere SIO, Su’a William (LAB) FIELD, Taito Lemalu Phillip (NZPP) 3,368 12,651 -9,283
19 Mt Albert SHEARER, David (LAB) Lee, Melissa (NAT) 3,542 13,260 -9,718
20 Manukau East ROBERTSON, Ross (LAB) BAKSHI, Kanwaljit Singh (NAT) 4,809 17,254 -12,445

If the polls stay the same way this blog is going to get a media pass to Paul Quinn’s election night party to provide live coverage of Trevor Mallard conceding.

Tomorrow the implications for Labour’s list will be considered. And commentary will be provided on the word that Labour are so worried about proportionality totally screwing their caucus they are talking actively about supporting a move to SM so they don’t end up bleeding seats to the Greens every time they become unpopular.

 


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  • symgardiner

    I think number 5 needs looking at. Dunne is not Labour (a the moment).

  • cadwallader

    To settle a debate: Are you (WO) still committed to standing against Winston in a constituency seat if he dares to stand? I doubt he will though.

    • Yep, same rationale about Winston as for Andrew Williams

  • thor42

    My pick (from the above list of candidates) for the biggest piece of deadwood would be George Hawkins (closely followed by Ruth Dyson). There’s lots of competition for that title though. Geez….. talk about a pool of “talent” as deep as a puddle….

    • hagues

      George Hawkin is deadwood alright, but he is not standing again.

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